Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[sailor734]

Interesting......Yesterday's update on 338Canada.com has moved Madawaska-Restigouche and Moncton ridings from "leaning Liberal" to "tossup" and I see Fredericton is no longer "likely CPC" but now "safe CPC gain"

https://338canada.com/atl.htm

Meanwhile, on Twitter, the self inflicted Liberal wounds continue........
This is so incredibly tone deaf I almost wondered for a second if MacAulay's account had been hacked. He's held that riding for 35 years and even it's ranked as a "tossup"

https://twitter.com/MichelleRempel/statu...cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjcw%3D%3D&refsrc=email

[Marty_Mcfly]

As someone who subscribes to many of the polling agencies who paywall their full reports (Nanos, Mainstreet), it should come as no surprise that many of the seemingly safe Liberal seats in Atlantic Canada are being modelled as flipping or trending towards flipping.

Last weeks regionals have the CPC at 50% support in Atlantic Canada, compared to 30% for the Liberals. With those numbers, any swing model would show a lot of the safer Liberal seats slowly sliding away. It remains to be seen whether if those numbers would actually flip the safe Liberal seats, or if CPC votes would just pile up in more moderate districts like Cumberland-Colchester.

It's funny that we've been in this environment for so long now that no one bats an eye that projections like 338 have the CPC winning the majority of seats in both PEI and Newfoundland. Had you even suggested that a year ago people would have called you crazy.

[adamuptownsj]

I don't see entrenched MPs like MacAulay as being in a mountain of danger. Egmont seems more likely to flip. I think their true floor is 8-9 seats and the projections are running a little high. Open seats like Saint John could be won by a blue lampshade at this point, though.

[sailor734]

I read somewhere on a news site that the RCMP were thought to be consulting with the Auditor General about further concerns they raised regarding GS Strategies and government contracts in addition to the ArriveCan situation. There may be more to come from this.

Adscam 2.0 maybe?................I'm sure the CPC hopes so.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

I don't see entrenched MPs like MacAulay as being in a mountain of danger. Egmont seems more likely to flip. I think their true floor is 8-9 seats and the projections are running a little high. Open seats like Saint John could be won by a blue lampshade at this point, though.

Interesting that they have Fredericton as even more likely to flip than SJ. I don't know a lot about that situation. I know Atwin is the former Green MP who crossed the floor. Riding boundaries changed in 2022 right? Did that have a big impact on Fredericton?

edit. To me it still says a lot that somebody like MacAulay is thought to be anything less than a sure thing.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Interesting that they have Fredericton as even more likely to flip than SJ. I don't know a lot about that situation. I know Atwin is the former Green MP who crossed the floor. Riding boundaries changed in 2022 right? Did that have a big impact on Fredericton?

edit. To me it still says a lot that somebody like MacAulay is thought to be anything less than a sure thing.

It's because in both 2019 and 2021 the CPC were within 2-3% of winning, versus Saint John the Liberals won by 14%. 338 is just a proportional swing, so they'll project the closest 2021 seats to flip first before anything else.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

It's because in both 2019 and 2021 the CPC were within 2-3% of winning, versus Saint John the Liberals won by 14%. 338 is just a proportional swing, so they'll project the closest 2021 seats to flip first before anything else.

Yup-- remember the new boundaries are not in force for another 2 months. Fredericton gets SLIGHTLY redder as it sheds rural Sunbury County in exchange for the newly annexed parts of Fredericton north of the river. Saint John gets substantially red trading swingy Lancaster for blue Quispamsis (although I agree, Long overran their SJ baseline substantially) and with Long, retiring no new Liberal is going to overperform this much.

Brian MacDonald is a good choice for the PCs in Fredericton-Oromocto. Legislative experience conveniently A) pre-Higgs and B) ending on good terms, military veteran, connections to Ottawa, etc. He's not a Red Tory or anything but he's not Stockwell Day.

Atwin has got to be one of the stranger incumbents with a unique vulnerability to her left that the Liberals have. She would have lost in 2021 if the Greens didn't crater nationwide.

With 3 entrenched MPs (Moore, Bragdon, Williamson) and Jake Stewart getting some CPC fortress territory around Grand Lake, the CPC should be well positioned to make very, very serious efforts for SJ-K and F-O. Losing both would indicate a severe underperformance.

[sailor734]

In the past 50+ years Saint John has been the very definition of a swing riding!

28th 1968 – 1972 Thomas Miller Bell Progressive Conservative
29th 1972 – 1974
30th 1974 – 1979 Mike Landers Liberal
Saint John
31st 1979 – 1980 Eric Ferguson Progressive Conservative
32nd 1980 – 1984 Mike Landers Liberal
33rd 1984 – 1988 Gerald Merrithew Progressive Conservative
34th 1988 – 1993
35th 1993 – 1997 Elsie Wayne
36th 1997 – 2000
37th 2000 – 2003
2003 – 2004 Conservative
38th 2004 – 2006 Paul Zed Liberal
39th 2006 – 2008
40th 2008 – 2011 Rodney Weston Conservative
41st 2011 – 2015
Saint John—Rothesay
42nd 2015–2019 Wayne Long Liberal
43rd 2019–2021
43rd 2021–present
Election results

Other than the 20 year run of Gerry Merrithew and Elsie Wayne (Elsie was far more about local popularity than party affiliation.....I think she could have won the seat running for the Rhinoceros Party ) SJ has swung back and forth from Conservative to Liberal pretty regularly.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Saint John is probably the closest we have as a bellwether district in Atlantic Canada. It isn't perfect sadly (deviations in 2000 and 2006) but Saint John could be a good indicator of how things will go nationally on election night.

[Dengler Avenue]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Saint John is probably the closest we have as a bellwether district in Atlantic Canada. It isn't perfect sadly (deviations in 2000 and 2006) but Saint John could be a good indicator of how things will go nationally on election night.

Coming from an Atlantic riding? Impressive!

[Marty_Mcfly]

I think the real story come election night will be the performance of the CPC in AC. If they start getting Liberal-2015'esque numbers in otherwise Liberal-leaning seats, then the CPC will likely achieve their 200+ seat supermajority. If results are a little cooler than expected then it could be a bit closer race.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

I think the real story come election night will be the performance of the CPC in AC. If they start getting Liberal-2015'esque numbers in otherwise Liberal-leaning seats, then the CPC will likely achieve their 200+ seat supermajority. If results are a little cooler than expected then it could be a bit closer race.

Agreed. If the Liberals are elected and leading in only 8-12 seats in Atlantic Canada going into Ontario it's going to be a rough ride for them across the rest of the country.

[adamuptownsj]

I think they can count on 1-2 in Newfoundland, 1-3 in PEI, 2-3 in Nova Scotia, and 4 in New Brunswick. So 8-12 sounds right.

338 Canada has them at 7, which is too low. It also doesn't take into account the new seats, for example, Moncton no longer includes Riverview. So it's surely staying Liberal. There's changes to the Halifax metro and CBRM that have material partisan impacts, but I can't find any info on what those changes are.

[Marty_Mcfly]

My personal belief is that the Liberals will come out of Atlantic Canada with 13 seats: 3 in NL, 2 in PEI, 4 in NS, and 4 in NB. Polling has it a little more dire than that right now, but I suspect some of those stones may be harder to break than what your typical swing model would suggest.

[sailor734]

Des anyone think ditching Trudeau this spring or summer if the polls don't improve would make any difference for the LPC come 2025? If it was to help at all I think it would have to be an outsider rather than a current Trudeau cabinet minister.

I find it really hard to believe the entire caucus is committed to what is increasingly looking like a Trudeau led death ride but..........who knows

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

I think they can count on 1-2 in Newfoundland, 1-3 in PEI, 2-3 in Nova Scotia, and 4 in New Brunswick. So 8-12 sounds right.

338 Canada has them at 7, which is too low. It also doesn't take into account the new seats, for example, Moncton no longer includes Riverview. So it's surely staying Liberal. There's changes to the Halifax metro and CBRM that have material partisan impacts, but I can't find any info on what those changes are.

In Cape Breton, the old Cape Breton-Canso district is expanding to take Antigonish plus the northern part of the Highlands but is losing Sydney suburbs like Glace Bay. The 2021 results transposed onto this district actually doesn't change the results at all, so it's a push. The old Sydney-Victoria district is now becoming a fully urban district which greatly benefits the Liberals, although not to the point where it's out of reach for the CPC.

The Halifax redistributing really doesn't change a whole lot there, each party is near their 2021 result in the transposed results. The real thing to watch is whether the NDP can capture Halifax, especially if Andy Fillmore steps down for a mayoral run.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Des anyone think ditching Trudeau this spring or summer if the polls don't improve would make any difference for the LPC come 2025? If it was to help at all I think it would have to be an outsider rather than a current Trudeau cabinet minister.

I find it really hard to believe the entire caucus is committed to what is increasingly looking like a Trudeau led death ride but..........who knows

JT taking a walk in the snow might make some difference, yes, but it will have to happen quickly so that a new leader can establish him/herself.

A new leader would have to be somebody not too closely associated with JT, so, not a senior cabinet minister. This excludes Chrystia or Dominic. Anita might be able to pass muster in this regard. Mark Carney is viewed by many as the saviour, but, I think he will come across as a cold fish technocrat and might do poorly in an election campaign.

Unless PP does something stupid, I think he will win next time, no matter what. The Liberals might be able to stave off crushing defeat however by selecting a proper replacement for JT.

[Ozabald]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

JT taking a walk in the snow might make some difference, yes, but it will have to happen quickly so that a new leader can establish him/herself.

A new leader would have to be somebody not too closely associated with JT, so, not a senior cabinet minister. This excludes Chrystia or Dominic. Anita might be able to pass muster in this regard. Mark Carney is viewed by many as the saviour, but, I think he will come across as a cold fish technocrat and might do poorly in an election campaign.

Unless PP does something stupid, I think he will win next time, no matter what. The Liberals might be able to stave off crushing defeat however by selecting a proper replacement for JT.

Makes you think what would have happened in 1984 if the Liberals went with Jean Chretien vs. John Turner. Likely there still would have been a Mulroney government elected as people were so sick of PET; perhaps with a smaller number of seats than the 211 Mulroney won. Would the Conservatives have been re-elected in 1988? Would a Chretien loss in 1984 been the end/beginning of the end of his political career? The 1990's and early 2000's likely would have been very differently politically in Canada if Chretien was selected Liberal leader in 1984. It would not be a surprise if Chretien would probably admit he's glad not winning the Liberal leadership in 1984.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

JT taking a walk in the snow might make some difference, yes, but it will have to happen quickly so that a new leader can establish him/herself.

A new leader would have to be somebody not too closely associated with JT, so, not a senior cabinet minister. This excludes Chrystia or Dominic. Anita might be able to pass muster in this regard. Mark Carney is viewed by many as the saviour, but, I think he will come across as a cold fish technocrat and might do poorly in an election campaign.

Unless PP does something stupid, I think he will win next time, no matter what. The Liberals might be able to stave off crushing defeat however by selecting a proper replacement for JT.

If Trudeau did leave some of the potential replacements might be remembering Kim Campbell and thinking "no thanks. I'll look at replacing whoever leads us to slaughter in 2025"

[Marty_Mcfly]

Why exactly would someone with aspirations to be Prime Minister take over the Liberal leadership right now? You get to be PM for a year and then your career is dead.

No doubt that Trudeau is dragging down the Liberal party, but I find it difficult to see anyone wanting to be cannon fodder. I think all the top potential candidates would sit out and then put their name in for a leadership bid post election loss.