The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[DTBourque]

Originally Posted by MonctonianSentinel01

For those wondering about how a CA or other area, like Shediac for example, can get brought into a CMA like Moncton here is the info.
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/ref/dict/geo009-eng.cfm
Item number 7 and Figure 1.11 is what your looking for.
I did the math and 965 people live in Shediac that work in the Moncton CMA and 785 people living in Moncton work in Shediac, following the formula in Figure 1.11 that would mean that these 2 numbers added together and then divided by the resident employed labour force that lives in Shediac (2385) would give us a percentage of about 73 percent. So there must be something else that is holding Shediac back.
It may be one ore more of the rules listed above.

7 is for merging CMAs and CAs.

Shediac is not yet a CA (or CMA), so 2 applies.

"Given a minimum of 100 commuters, at least 50% of the employed labour force living in the CSD works in the delineation core, as determined by the previous rule."

If Shediac becomes a CA, then 7 will apply. (CA and CMA definitions are towards the top of the same link.)

[MonctonianSentinel01]

Originally Posted by DTBourque

7 is for merging CMAs and CAs.

Shediac is not yet a CA (or CMA), so 2 applies.

"Given a minimum of 100 commuters, at least 50% of the employed labour force living in the CSD works in the delineation core, as determined by the previous rule."

If Shediac becomes a CA, then 7 will apply. (CA and CMA definitions are towards the top of the same link.)

Yup your right, definitely an oversight by my part.
If that's the case then we're at 40.4 percent and we need 50 percent. Might have a better chance of waiting until Shediac becomes a CA. Then we'll have it for sure.

[DTBourque]

Originally Posted by MonctonianSentinel01

Yup your right, definitely an oversight by my part.
If that's the case then we're at 40.4 percent and we need 50 percent. Might have a better chance of waiting until Shediac becomes a CA. Then we'll have it for sure.

No worries, I only pretend to understand this stuff. I always learn something new everytime I do a bit more digging.

If Shediac continues to grow at around 10% per 5 years, it will reach 10 000 sometime after the 2036 census.

Shediac was at 48% commuters to MRD in 2011 and went down to 40% in 2016. I think this number will start creeping back towards 50% and will probably get there before the population reaches 10 000+.

[OliverD]

Originally Posted by DTBourque

No worries, I only pretend to understand this stuff. I always learn something new everytime I do a bit more digging.

If Shediac continues to grow at around 10% per 5 years, it will reach 10 000 sometime after the 2036 census.

Shediac was at 48% commuters to MRD in 2011 and went down to 40% in 2016. I think this number will start creeping back towards 50% and will probably get there before the population reaches 10 000+.

Thats seems a bit counterintuitive to me. As the population grows the demand for local services also grows, meaning there are more local employment opportunities.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by DTBourque

7 is for merging CMAs and CAs.

Shediac is not yet a CA (or CMA), so 2 applies.

"Given a minimum of 100 commuters, at least 50% of the employed labour force living in the CSD works in the delineation core, as determined by the previous rule."

If Shediac becomes a CA, then 7 will apply. (CA and CMA definitions are towards the top of the same link.)

Delineation core means the City of Moncton exclusively in this case and does not include Shediac commuters working in Dieppe/Riverview/elsewhere.

Seems like Shediac becomes a CA long before it's ever merged into Moncton CMA.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by FreddyGuy

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-bruns...te-housing-market-sales-growth-1.5201871

Fredericton real estate sales up 58 percent over same period last year. I'm sure this news will encourage some new construction.

Real Estate doing very well in NB this year:

"New Brunswick homes are selling at the fastest rate in 10 years, creating a demand for supply that has agents hitting the streets in search of new listings, according to the New Brunswick Real Estate Association.

The rise in sales is backed by the best month the association has ever recorded. In May, 1,124 units were sold, an all-time record and 24.6 per cent higher than May 2018.

The year-to-date figures, gathered by the Canadian Real Estate Association, are also strong. A total of 3,622 units were sold across New Brunswick in the first five months of the year — a 20.3 per cent increase from the same period in 2018.

The trend has been felt acutely in the capital city. Home sales in Fredericton have outpaced the first five months of 2018 by 58 per cent. In Moncton, the increase was 23.7 per cent and 11.6 per cent in Saint John.

The high demand is supported by a decrease in housing stock. The Canadian Real Estate Association reported a total of 5,648 active MLS listings at the end of May — a 17.5 per cent drop from this point last year and an 11-year low."

[MonctonRad]

I would not be at all surprised to see Fredericton rivalling Moncton as the growth leader in the province in the upcoming decade.

Fredericton is on the verge of becoming the province's third CMA. I think it is inevitable that sometime in the next 25-30 years that the Fredericton CMA will become larger than the Saint John CMA.

[Taeolas]

Even living here, the growth in Freddy is impressive. What's more, as you drive around the city, you realize just how much of that growth is in multiunit buildings. Sure I'm sure the suburbs are expanding and what not, but there are a lot of notable locations that are seeing 3-4 story walkups, duplexes, triplexes and even 4-6 story apartment blocks.

I'm hoping UNB is looking into some expansion plans because we're going to need it. A lot of our growth is tech sector growth fueled by the UNB STEM studies. I've got a friend who works on campus and one thing he's pointed out, is how UNB's classes are basically bursting at the seams now, and the university may not be ready to address that yet.

As for Freddy lapping SJ in size, I'm not sure I'm ready to say it's probable yet, but it is looking more and more possible as the years go by. Freddy's CMA count is a little hindered by the 10000 people in Oromocto we can't 'officially' claim. SJ on the other hand is starting to recover, but it still needs to get its house in order and start focusing on diversifying and growth again, and not just on the Irvings.

[MonctonRad]

Current Office Vacancy Rates in Atlantic Canada (from Huddle)

Moncton - 7.96%
Fredericton - 8.04%
Halifax - 14.62%
St. John's - 17.64%
Saint John - 18.26%

The Class "A" occupancy rate in Moncton is currently 3.57% (down from 8.49% last year), and is considered essentially "full occupancy".

With the scarcity of premium Class "A" office space in Moncton, one would think this would mean more new construction in the offing. Why isn't Crombie working on 1222 Main Street? This would seem the perfect time to begin this major retrofit!!!

[Taeolas]

I wonder if there might be a lack preventing Crombie from starting work on that building?

There is a lot of construction going on both in Moncton and in NB/the Region this season. They may not be able to find suitable contractors to run the project, or there might not be enough slack in the supply chains to supply concrete and steel and glass and what not.

In Freddy's case, as mentioned in the Freddy thread, we already have 3 major office construction projects going on, and a big empty office building waiting for renovations to restart; so it's somewhat understandable why some of the other projects aren't going.

For Moncton, I don't believe there are any major office projects going on now that TD is done; but there are a lot of hotel and condo/apartment (and utility projects like gyms/pools/etc...) projects going on that might be blocking office projects for this season.

[someone123]

These are volatile numbers but all 4 Atlantic CMAs did extremely well in employment over the past year:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410029402&pickMembers%5B0%5D=2.3

St. John's and Moncton up 3.1%, Halifax up 4.7%, Saint John up 5.4%.

Halifax is #11 in total employment for a Canadian CMA now but a few years ago it probably would have been 13th or 14th. London ON for example had employment of 240,800 in July 2019 while Halifax was 244,400. This was surprising to me. Kitchener-Waterloo had much higher employment, over 300,000.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Looking forward to Fredericton being a CMA in the next census so we can start getting these more detailed numbers.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by someone123

These are volatile numbers but all 4 Atlantic CMAs did extremely well in employment over the past year:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410029402&pickMembers%5B0%5D=2.3

Says a lot when Moncton & Saint John combine for 6K more people working but NB only increases by 2K. Rural NB is bleeding jobs.

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

Looking forward to Fredericton being a CMA in the next census so we can start getting these more detailed numbers.

The wait is becoming unbearable. Just over a year/year and a half to go I guess right?

Originally Posted by JHikka

Says a lot when Moncton & Saint John combine for 6K more people working but NB only increases by 2K. Rural NB is bleeding jobs.

One thing when we start getting Freddy's numbers for CMAs will be the University effect. Freddy is a lot more affected by the University in the summer than SJ and Moncton tend to be, so that could make things interesting for its employment numbers.

Regardless, news out of Bathurst seems to be quite positive lately so hopefully that will start staunching the bleeding. We may need to do something with the North West though, Hartland to Edmundston feel like they're treading water at best, if not hurting.

[q12]

Nova Scotia is now approximately only 25,000 people away from hitting the one million mark according to Stats Canada.

The Maritimes are less than 90,000 people away from hitting two million mark.


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2018005-eng.htm

[RR Drummer]

Originally Posted by q12

Nova Scotia is now approximately only 25,000 people away from hitting the one million mark according to Stats Canada.

The Maritimes are less than 90,000 people away from hitting two million mark.


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2018005-eng.htm

Nova Scotia will no doubt hit that 1 million soon given the growth & popularity of Halifax Regional Municipality. Good for them. IMO I still believe the best way to market & grow our region as a whole is a combined province. Atlantica hasn’t been talked about much recently but the merits are there.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by RR Drummer

Nova Scotia will no doubt hit that 1 million soon given the growth & popularity of Halifax Regional Municipality. Good for them. IMO I still believe the best way to market & grow our region as a whole is a combined province. Atlantica hasn’t been talked about much recently but the merits are there.

The supposed merits and upside of a merged province have been discussed ad nauseum in the decade I've been on this forum. It won't be happening any time soon for a plethora of reasons.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by JHikka

The supposed merits and upside of a merged province have been discussed ad nauseum in the decade I've been on this forum. It won't be happening any time soon for a plethora of reasons.

I think there's less pressure for a merger now than there has been during most of the past 3 decades or so. All 3 Maritime provinces are growing in population and are running budget surpluses; all 3 have lower debt to GDP than Ontario and Quebec. There is no urgent pressure to change anything.

I've always found it very "Canadian" how people assume there is something wrong with the Atlantic provinces or treat them as second-class (e.g. report every other province separately but combined the 4 Atlantic provinces) because they are smaller. I think the merger obsession stems partly from this. Meanwhile south of the border there is more diversity in the size of sub-national political entities and it seems to be better tolerated.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Atlantic province populations since April 1st:

NB 776,827 up .4%
NS 971,395 up .5%
PEI 156,947 up .8%
NFLD 521,542 down .2%

[MonctonRad]

I'm beginning to think an NB population of 800,000 might be possible in the next 4-5 years.