National Economy

[casper]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

^ The US ran deficits to fund the building of industry and infrastructure and defence buildup (ultimately industrial spending). Canada ran deficits to give old people bigger pensions. That's the difference. Again, the Liberals racked up $100B in total deficits before COVID. Very little of it was new money for infrastructure, industrial development or defence. Must of it was for social programs including CCB and increased OAS entitlements.

Canada spending on OAS generates no controversy. It should, but it does not.

Infrastructure spending on battery plants, trans-mountain pipeline, public transit, inter-city trains, co-op housing, etc. are far of a political hot potato.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

This is partially true but also a bit unfair. We spent more on a few battery plants than all the increase under Trudeau of OAS (I guess the 67 back to 65 aside)

But all that spending is only a few months of the Covid spending. So stopping that a few months earlier would have made up for all the spending.
I know I have a bugaboo for CCB and you for OAS but we have to admit between the two most Canadians have benefited.

Yes, I agree that the OAS increases and CCB have greatly benefited many people who are not very wealthy and prevented many other problems from happening.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

This is partially true but also a bit unfair. We spent more on a few battery plants than all the increase under Trudeau of OAS (I guess the 67 back to 65 aside).

How can that be true if OAS one of the largest annual expenditures on the federal government's books, and the budget item that's inflating the fastest?



https://www.gensqueeze.ca/analysis_2...248%20billion.

But all that spending is only a few months of the Covid spending. So stopping that a few months earlier would have made up for all the spending.
I know I have a bugaboo for CCB and you for OAS but we have to admit between the two most Canadians have benefited.

First of all COVID is extraordinary levels of spending that cannot be repeated again, otherwise the money men will call in the debts. Second, Trudeau did not stop the COVID spending a couple months earlier, and instead overspent and dragged it out longer than other western countries. So that fiscal capacity is permanently lost, especially with GDP per capita rapidly declining.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

How can that be true if OAS one of the largest annual expenditures on the federal government's books, and the budget item that's inflating the fastest?



https://www.gensqueeze.ca/analysis_2...248%20billion.

It isn't true and he keeps pushing disinformation despite knowing its wrong. I'm fairly sure all of the federal commitments to battery plants over the next decade probably add up to less than a year of OAS in 2030. He also keeps acting like CCB is just as big as problem because of theoretical hoardes of welfare queens with five kids from six dads or some such.
Gotta keep up the lies to keep the old man dole going.

I'm really grateful to Gen Squeeze for all the work they do highlighting how absolutely fucking broken fiscal priorities are in this country.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It isn't true and he keeps pushing disinformation despite knowing its wrong. I'm fairly sure all of the federal commitments to battery plants over the next decade probably add up to less than a year of OAS in 2030. He also keeps acting like CCB is just as big as problem because of theoretical hoardes of welfare queens with five kids from six dads or some such.
Gotta keep up the lies to keep the old man dole going.

I'm really grateful to Gen Squeeze for all the work they do highlighting how absolutely fucking broken fiscal priorities are in this country.

Sorry I am talking about the impact of Liberal changes. The discussion was how Trudeau ran up deficits. The retirement age would have slowly increased in 2023 so going forward sure it is a cost but has cost nothing so far. Trudeau also increased modestly OAS and there was a onetime COVID payment I am not including. Granted the battery plant costs haven't hit the books yet either but the point is Trudeau's OAS changes were a rounding error on his 2015-2023 cumulitive deficit.

[casper]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Sorry I am talking about the impact of Liberal changes. The discussion was how Trudeau ran up deficits. The retirement age would have slowly increased in 2023 so going forward sure it is a cost but has cost nothing so far. Trudeau also increased modestly OAS and there was a onetime COVID payment I am not including. Granted the battery plant costs haven't hit the books yet either but the point is Trudeau's OAS changes were a rounding error on his 2015-2023 cumulitive deficit.

The battery plants subsidies should in part be offset by increased tax revenue from payroll of workers at the plants and indirect workers in the supply chain. Potentially corporate tax revenue from the operators. If that is a catalyst to maintain other assembly plants in Canada we may see even more tax revenue. I think just now it is speculation how much those subsidies will cost at the end of the day.

If the liberals wanted to to something modest to OAS they could start by de-indexing OAS and instead have the increases go to the Old Age Security supplement that is aggressively clawed back. That is the only thing they could do that would not cost significant votes at the ballot box.

Doing small tax/benefits changes do have consequences. Look at their recent change to capital gains taxes.

[Truenorth00]

Pretty easy to complain about the costs of the battery plants when you have a nice cushy white collar job in Ottawa and it's not your livelihood on the line.

There's a reason the US and the EU are both going hard to defend EV manufacturing. And those reasons go well beyond economics. Good on the Liberals for not putting Southern Ontario in a position to lose most of its auto manufacturing over the next decade and turning the place into Indiana. One of the few positive policies from this government.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Pretty easy to complain about the costs of the battery plants when you have a nice cushy white collar job in Ottawa and it's not your livelihood on the line.

There's a reason the US and the EU are both going hard to defend EV manufacturing. And those reasons go well beyond economics. Good on the Liberals for not putting Southern Ontario in a position to lose most of its auto manufacturing over the next decade and turning the place into Indiana. One of the few positive policies from this government.

The EU is not matching in any way these subsidies. Granted they have their own market.

We all have different jobs so I don't think that is releveant. While certainly Volpe and the auto unions are in favor of subsidies that doesn't prove they are efficient. The idea that car manufacturing needs to be near the battery production makes little sense.

Indiana is a funny reference as I know someone that works in a small factory in Toronto and they company also has a plant in Indiana. Indiana has nearly as many manufacturing jobs as Ontario 600k vs 800k even though it is half the size. The constraint there is finding workers. Salaries are lower but you can buy a house walking distance to the facilty for $200k.
Nah better to bring in more people in 2 years than the total number of manufacturing jobs in the province. Let's spend millions per job. Sounds like a great idea.

[Truenorth00]

Like I said, pretty easy to give away somebody else's job and let their industry and communities go to pot, when you know it has no effect on you. The Ottawa bubble.

[davidivivid]

National Bank to buy Edmonton-based Canadian Western Bank in $5B deal

National Bank of Canada says it is purchasing Canadian Western Bank in a share exchange transaction that values the Edmonton-based lender at approximately $5 billion.

The companies say the deal brings together two complementary banks with growing businesses and the combined entity will offer national scale while maintaining a regionally focused service model.

[...]

https://globalnews.ca/news/10560917/...ern-bank-deal/

[Truenorth00]

Oilbros are in for a nasty surprise when a change of government doesn't unleash the kind of oil sector investment they imagined.

World faces ‘staggering’ oil glut by end of decade, energy watchdog warns

IEA predicts more than 8mn b/d of excess capacity by 2030 as producers invest in pumping more crude



...
Birol outlined three main drivers for oil demand to peak by the end of the decade: reduced petrol use as the world switches to electric vehicles, a move by countries in the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia, to switch from oil to renewables to generate electricity, and a lower future growth rate in China.

“Perhaps the most important factor comes from China,” he said. “In the last 10 years, about 60 per cent of global oil demand growth came from China alone.” The IEA said it expected the 6 per cent annual growth the Asian country had registered in that period to fall to about 4 per cent a year in its forecast period.

The future drivers of growth would include more aviation and the “booming petrochemical sector”, Birol said. The IEA also expects petrol use to increase in India as more drivers hit the roads.

Meanwhile, oil demand in OECD countries, which peaked in 2007, would fall to 1991 levels by 2030. The IEA has assumed 3 per cent annual global economic growth for the rest of the decade.

The IEA cautioned its forecast for shrinking oil demand could be derailed by “relatively minor changes” in events. For example, a 0.3 per cent annual increase in the world’s GDP growth, a $5 annual drop in real oil prices, or a 15 per cent slowdown in the rollout of EVs would each be enough to swing oil consumption back to growth by the end of the decade.

https://www.ft.com/content/cfb97534-...6-6dc3487f595d

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by davidivivid

National Bank to buy Edmonton-based Canadian Western Bank in $5B deal



https://globalnews.ca/news/10560917/...ern-bank-deal/

Because what the Canadian banking system really needs is less competition…

[ssiguy]

In terms of the VW/Stellantis plant ongoing subsidies, remember none of them kick in until the plants start producing as they are based upon a subsidy per-battery produced. That takes us to roughly 25-27 and in the mean time, we have a Presidential election and our subsidies are legally tied with what the US does.

If Trump {God forbid} gets elected then the subsidies are gone and even if they are forced to get a new candidate, any Republican President will get rid of the subsidies. However, the Democrats too will be under pressure to slow/reduce/stop the subsidies but the pressure will come the financial markets. With the Petrodollar now officially gone, markets/investors aren't not going to continue to allow the US debt levels to soar into the stratosphere like they are now and that means the gov't is going to have to start reigning in gov't spending and this kind of subsidy will be the first to go or at least greatly scaled back.

The amount of subsidy VW/Stellantis are getting is beyond obscene but in reality I don't think we are going to be forking out near as much as we potentially could.

[Truenorth00]

^ How many times does it have to be explained to you that the President doesn't control the budget allocation? Congress does. Trump can't do squat. And most of the battery plants are going up in red states or swing states. It's going to be entertaining to see Republicans shoot themselves in the foot.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

^ How many times does it have to be explained to you that the President doesn't control the budget allocation? Congress does. Trump can't do squat. And most of the battery plants are going up in red states or swing states. It's going to be entertaining to see Republicans shoot themselves in the foot.

The plants are built so cutting the subsidy probably doesn't even close them though the surplus right now makes it more likely. But regardless the 2025 budget under trump would see a Republican senate and congress so the budget will very much be a trump budget. Spending cuts and tax cuts. Likely enterring a recession too so expect absolutely massive budget deficits.

[casper]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

The plants are built so cutting the subsidy probably doesn't even close them though the surplus right now makes it more likely. But regardless the 2025 budget under trump would see a Republican senate and congress so the budget will very much be a trump budget. Spending cuts and tax cuts. Likely enterring a recession too so expect absolutely massive budget deficits.

The published states show that momentum of EV sales growth is slowing. Some analysts like Goldman Sasks are projecting 2024 EV growth will only be 21% year over year.

I think the plants will be fine. It may slow (or even go slightly negative for a short time) but eventually it will pickup again. It is not like we have much choice, we need to find ways of reducing our carbon footprint.

[ssiguy]

Bad new for Musk and Greenies everywhere. A new global report released just a couple days ago and reported in Automotive News found that of current EV owners, 29% globally want to go back to an ICE vehicle and that number soared to 46% in the US.

Now that the novelty of 100% EVs for the more well healed has subsided, reality is kicking in. From high prices, to impracticality, unreliability, limited range, battery drainage in both very hot and very cold climates, poor recharging infrastructure {both availability and maintenance} to plunging value as soon as they leave the lot, EVs are not the panacea they thought they were going to be.

That said, EVs do have good long-term prospects but right now, the technology simply isn't good enough to makes them affordable, practical, and reliability for the vast majority of buyers.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Bad new for Musk and Greenies everywhere. A new global report released just a couple days ago and reported in Automotive News found that of current EV owners, 29% globally want to go back to an ICE vehicle and that number soared to 46% in the US.

Now that the novelty of 100% EVs for the more well healed has subsided, reality is kicking in. From high prices, to impracticality, unreliability, limited range, battery drainage in both very hot and very cold climates, poor recharging infrastructure {both availability and maintenance} to plunging value as soon as they leave the lot, EVs are not the panacea they thought they were going to be.

That said, EVs do have good long-term prospects but right now, the technology simply isn't good enough to makes them affordable, practical, and reliability for the vast majority of buyers.

Care to link to the report?

I have spoken to dozens of EV drivers and literally nobody is interested in going back to gas. Lots of people aren't too interested in re-buying a Tesla but they would never go ICE.

Your constant FUD on the subject leaves me thinking your source is a biased fossil fuel funded study.

[kwoldtimer]

It doesn't quite rise to the level of national economic news, but Westinghouse opened a new global engineering hub in Kitchener this week that will employ 150 engineers by the end of next year. It is Westinghouse's first global hub, as its other hubs in the USA, Italy, and Spain deal with projects in those countries.

[Build.It]

This is very anecdotal, but the construction recession appears to be over in Ontario at the ground level. Q3, Q4 and Q1 were absolutely dead, but all of a sudden tons of projects are getting brought back to life. We've been busier than ever before the last month, and others in the industry have told me the same thing.

This likely won't show up until Q4's earning reports for most companies, but it's a great sign.

Last year there was a LOT of restructuring with small to medium sized construction companies - layoffs, mergers, bankruptcies. I don't think that's over yet, but now that a lot of companies are operating leaner we're seeing more investment again.

Also, the most likely cause of all these projects getting reactivated all of a sudden is the anticipation of rate cuts. Developers can get money for a little bit cheaper, and they know they can refinance for even cheaper in the next few months.

It appears to me that the recession was from Q3 2023 to Q2 2024. They usually don't confirm this until after the economy is out of the recession... eg. The 2008 recession wasn't confirmed until the following year in 2009. So we will see!

My guess is that we probably still have a few more months of layoffs and price cuts ahead of us, until the earnings from this new boom start being actualized.