Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[darkharbour]

More PC cabinet ministers - Holland and Dunn - just announced that they won't be re-offering and in Dunn's case will be resigning from cabinet immediately.

Interesting to see where this will leave the PCs heading into the next election, with Ministers Dunn, Crossman, Fitch, Holland, Holder, and Sheppard all leaving.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by darkharbour

More PC cabinet ministers - Holland and Dunn - just announced that they won't be re-offering and in Dunn's case will be resigning from cabinet immediately.

Interesting to see where this will leave the PCs heading into the next election, with Ministers Dunn, Crossman, Fitch, Holland, Holder, and Sheppard all leaving.

We have a surfeit of ministers for such a small legislature, but Holder and Shepherd have been out of cabinet since June. I discussed the electoral implications of their retirements, and Crossman's, up-thread.

Fitch is tapping out after 21 years, and Holland doesn't seem like the career type. AFAIK both were Higgs loyalists. Their seats should be easy PC holds.

Dunn, if announcing for Saint John-Kennebecasis (which she has a decent chance at winning), is a major loss in the second-toughest seat to hold after the seriously redrawn Moncton East. Long-announced David Hickey will exceed the previous historically bad Liberal performance (23%). Greens are running Mariah Darling, Don Darling's daughter. She will be hard pressed to hang on to Brent Harris' 23%, with a more competent Liberal campaign. So the PCs need to find a decent candidate, and Darling to do OK. NDP and PA will of course be non-factors.

[darkharbour]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

We have a surfeit of ministers for such a small legislature, but Holder and Shepherd have been out of cabinet since June. I discussed the electoral implications of their retirements, and Crossman's, up-thread.

Fitch is tapping out after 21 years, and Holland doesn't seem like the career type. AFAIK both were Higgs loyalists. Their seats should be easy PC holds.

I should have been a bit more clear perhaps, as I was thinking more of what the PC party might look like with so many new MLAs if Higgs were to be re-elected for another term, understanding that the cabinet turnover has been underway for the past ~8 months.

Even though the head might look the same, the way the body moves could be quite different.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by darkharbour

I should have been a bit more clear perhaps, as I was thinking more of what the PC party might look like with so many new MLAs if Higgs were to be re-elected for another term, understanding that the cabinet turnover has been underway for the past ~8 months.

Even though the head might look the same, the way the body moves could be quite different.

There's been a lot of turnover in both parties. There's not a Liberal who got elected before 2014! The PC caucus of 29, retirements aside, will still host 4 members first elected in 2010, another from 2012, and 3 from 2014.

MLAs by first year of election:

2023 byelections: 3 Lib
2022 byelections: 2 PC
2020 GE: 10 PC, 2 Lib (1 retiring)
2018 GE: 5 PC + Cardy, 7 Lib, 2 Green (1 retiring, 1 likely to retire (Anderson-Mason), Cardy unknown
2014 GE: 4 PC, 4 Lib, 1 Green (1 PC retiring)
2012 byelection: 1 PC
2010 GE: 5 PC (1 retiring)
2003 GE: 1 PC (retiring)
1999 GE: 1 PC (retiring)

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

We have a surfeit of ministers for such a small legislature, but Holder and Shepherd have been out of cabinet since June. I discussed the electoral implications of their retirements, and Crossman's, up-thread.

Fitch is tapping out after 21 years, and Holland doesn't seem like the career type. AFAIK both were Higgs loyalists. Their seats should be easy PC holds.

Dunn, if announcing for Saint John-Kennebecasis (which she has a decent chance at winning), is a major loss in the second-toughest seat to hold after the seriously redrawn Moncton East. Long-announced David Hickey will exceed the previous historically bad Liberal performance (23%). Greens are running Mariah Darling, Don Darling's daughter. She will be hard pressed to hang on to Brent Harris' 23%, with a more competent Liberal campaign. So the PCs need to find a decent candidate, and Darling to do OK. NDP and PA will of course be non-factors.

338 Canada has the SJ federaL riding as "CPC leaning" with the odds of a CPC win as 82% as of Jan 28. Of course who the local candidates end up being can obviously effect this....and can the fact the election is 18+ months away and the liberals still might well come back from the dead nationally. Looks like Dunn may be making the move to federal politics when the time is right.

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

There's been a lot of turnover in both parties. There's not a Liberal who got elected before 2014! The PC caucus of 29, retirements aside, will still host 4 members first elected in 2010, another from 2012, and 3 from 2014.

MLAs by first year of election:

2023 byelections: 3 Lib
2022 byelections: 2 PC
2020 GE: 10 PC, 2 Lib (1 retiring

)
2018 GE: 5 PC + Cardy, 7 Lib, 2 Green (1 retiring, 1 likely to retire (Anderson-Mason), Cardy unknown
2014 GE: 4 PC, 4 Lib, 1 Green (1 PC retiring)
2012 byelection: 1 PC
2010 GE: 5 PC (1 retiring)
2003 GE: 1 PC (retiring)
1999 GE: 1 PC (retiring)

I think with these announcements from Holland and Dunn we'll see a announcement from others who are on the fence about running again like Anderson-Mason. Personally I don't think Anderson-Mason runs again but who knows.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by sailor734

338 Canada has the SJ federaL riding as "CPC leaning" with the odds of a CPC win as 82% as of Jan 28. Of course who the local candidates end up being can obviously effect this....and can the fact the election is 18+ months away and the liberals still might well come back from the dead nationally. Looks like Dunn may be making the move to federal politics when the time is right.

The new ridings don't come into effect until April, IIRC. That will move the Saint John from lean to likely. Plus, Long heavily overperformed off his own 'independent' brand. Whoever the replacement nominee is, he won't have that record.

CPC just got veteran and former MLA Brian MacDonald for Fredericton-Oromocto, who's not a bad fit, especially with the riding moving left following boundary changes (current riding was 37-36 Liberal, new riding would have been 38-34 Liberal).

I don't anticipate much action in NB other than Saint John and probably Fredericton flipping. Nova Scotia is going to be much more interesting.

[sailor734]

In terms of the situation provincially it’s too bad NB is so small of a media market that we don’t get any amount of polling done. I’d be very interested in knowing where things stand. It’s hard to know if all the anti Higgs noise in media comments is a real shift to the Liberals or a very vocal minority. The PC vote is far more efficient than the Liberal’s so even a 2-3 point Liberal lead isn’t enough for them. OTOH I don't know if the silent majority in NB is as socially conservative as Higgs appears to be gambling they are.

Should be an interesting 8 months������

[David_99]

Did we ever find out if and where Higgs spent all of that $400M Federal Infrastructure money? The last I heard, there was a deadline to meet and he was deciding where to spend it. I was just curious if it was listed anywhere.

[Dengler Avenue]

With the recent comment from Federal Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault that the road networks are adequate, is another sweep of the Atlantic Canada possible by the conservatives?

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

With the recent comment from Federal Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault that the road networks are adequate, is another sweep of the Atlantic Canada possible by the conservatives?

I think even the safest of Liberal seats are in play now.

Roads are very important to Atlantic Canadians. We have virtually no intercity transit beyond a rudimentary bus system, and no rapid transit at all. We are very car dependent, and therefore road dependent.

Guilbeault just used a bazooka to shoot the federal Liberal government in the foot.

[drewber]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I think even the safest of Liberal seats are in play now.

Roads are very important to Atlantic Canadians. We have virtually no intercity transit beyond a rudimentary bus system, and no rapid transit at all. We are very car dependent, and therefore road dependent.

Guilbeault just used a bazooka to shoot the federal Liberal government in the foot.

Really? I mean yeah a very detached comment but 18 mknths from a federal election? Won't make a difference at all let's be honest here

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I think even the safest of Liberal seats are in play now.

Roads are very important to Atlantic Canadians. We have virtually no intercity transit beyond a rudimentary bus system, and no rapid transit at all. We are very car dependent, and therefore road dependent.

Guilbeault just used a bazooka to shoot the federal Liberal government in the foot.

LeBlanc's riding maintains a burning desire for a twinned highway from top to bottom. Not like he'll lose or even come close, but it's a bizarre thing for his colleague to do.

It's not an offhand remark. It's a comment from one of the most unhinged Ministers in recent history that major road infrastructure projects are done. No TCH improvements, no third link. It's a vote shredder. 'Vote Liberal, get a Greenpeace anti-development nut' is not what a government that's bleeding middle of the road voters wants.

[Dengler Avenue]

And this is quite a bit of political ammunition for PP too. He may remind people enough that no one will forget.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

And this is quite a bit of political ammunition for PP too. He may remind people enough that no one will forget.

Especially in the outer parts of the GTA and the surrounding cities. Lately it seems like the Liberals are dead set on going down in flames in some kind of glorious Wagnerian death ride

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

With the recent comment from Federal Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault that the road networks are adequate, is another sweep of the Atlantic Canada possible by the conservatives?

No, unless there is a real sea change (like the Kim Campbell PC's getting wiped out) NB has two rock solid Liberal seats and 2 more that are strongly (75%+) leaning Liberal

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by sailor734

No, unless there is a real sea change (like the Kim Campbell PC's getting wiped out) NB has two rock solid Liberal seats and 2 more that are strongly (75%+) leaning Liberal

Latest Abacus (https://abacusdata.ca/abacus-data-co...berals-canada/) poll would have Moncton turning blue and Madawaska-Restigouche less secure than it has looked. That's assuming uniform swing of course but it's not going to get much better for Trudeau unless they find some dead guys in PP's crawlspace.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Latest Abacus (https://abacusdata.ca/abacus-data-co...berals-canada/) poll would have Moncton turning blue and Madawaska-Restigouche less secure than it has looked. That's assuming uniform swing of course but it's not going to get much better for Trudeau unless they find some dead guys in PP's crawlspace.

Latest from 338canada.com has both Moncton and Madawaska as "liberal leaning-hold" with the odds of a Liberal win still around 75%. That could change of course depending on the strength of the local CPC candidates and whether or not the LPC continues to suffer self inflicted wounds. PP shooting himself in the foot isn't impossible either.

Interesting that LeBlanc's riding has moved from "safe hold" to "likely hold"

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Latest from 338canada.com has both Moncton and Madawaska as "liberal leaning-hold" with the odds of a Liberal win still around 75%. That could change of course depending on the strength of the local CPC candidates and whether or not the LPC continues to suffer self inflicted wounds. PP shooting himself in the foot isn't impossible either.

Interesting that LeBlanc's riding has moved from "safe hold" to "likely hold"

Polling Canada modeled the Abacus poll I linked here: https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/...790168/photo/1

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Polling Canada modeled the Abacus poll I linked here: https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/...790168/photo/1

I think in Moncton and Madawaska it will largely depend on the quality and local popularity of the CPC candidate. If the CPC can come up with a couple of local "stars" they could well stand a decent chance.

It's sort of the same in how Wayne Long held SJ last time.....far more about his popularity than Trudeau and the LPC. Without him I think the deck is stacked pretty strongly in the CPC's favour as long as they come up with a decent candidate. I haven't heard a lot yet about who may be running in SJ. Should be interesting.