Statistics Canada Reports II

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

[B]...We estimate about two-thirds of productivity declines since 2021 stem from this population shock (chart 2).

[*]The magnitude of the population shock has further muted this investment response. The surge in immigration almost certainly contained what would have otherwise been even more substantial wage increases and, in so doing, has made labour a cheaper option than capital..]

Let's just bold and highlight that so everyone is aware of the Trudeau game plan.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Let's just bold and highlight that so everyone is aware of the Trudeau game plan.

Fact don't agree with you statement.
Wage growth has accelerated under Trudeau and are still growing at a record pace and has been for a while now.
Still around 5% and faster than at any other time in your life time.
If wages grew any faster we would never get inflation under control and be stuck in a Wage-Price Spiral

[theman23]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

Speaking of unsustainable population growth, excellent read from Scotiabank Economics today:
We further estimate that a productivity-neutral rate of population growth over this time would have been around 350 k annually.[/LIST]

Interesting that their neutral population growth estimate is essentially the same as our annual population growth pre-2015. I wonder what changed after that year?

[theman23]

CIHI survey of 10 wealthy countries shows that Canada ranks last in access to primary care. Can't help but notice the correlation between the election of the Liberals, the ramp up in immigration numbers since 2015 and our tumble down these rankings:



Also rank last in same day or next day appointment availability:



https://www.cihi.ca/en/primary-health-care

[lio45]

Is that the Southern Top Ten, or actually really the Top Ten?

[kora]

Originally Posted by lio45

Is that the Southern Top Ten, or actually really the Top Ten?

Top 10 overall, yes

[svlt]

The Top 10 declining metropolitan areas weren't published on that link, but the respective counties with the greatest declines are within the following metros, and were no surprise if anyone was following the news: Los Angeles, New York City, Chicago, Philadelphia, Detroit, San Diego

[Justanothermember]

Sorry is this a Canadian or American Statistical Population thread? Or just yet another example of Canadians obsession with the US?

[niwell]

High percentage wage growth at the bottom end isn’t making things more affordable for those in low-paying jobs unless they have secure housing locked down. Some probably do. Younger people and newcomers not so much.

Anecdotally wages have gone up a ton in certain sectors for those at a certain point in their career. Most of my friends have seen their salaries increase ahead of inflation. But again house prices in Toronto have outpaced that which makes it a bit of a moot point. I suspect people in situations like that are the reason bars and restaurants are still so busy - if you can’t afford to buy may as well enjoy yourself. My relatives in Australia had this outlook a decade ago when they largely consigned themselves to renting unless an inheritance came in.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by thewave46

The question I pose is this: Why are you so focused on 'high growth at any cost', when it is becoming obvious that the downsides are apparent? I don't understand the goal you are trying to achieve, aside from 'growth for growth's sake, to hell with quality.'

One can almost imagine Canadian growth policy being led by a skyscraper fanboy. It's got all the hallmarks of classic SSP boosterism after all: it really pads those population growth charts, density figures, and diversity stats - and most importantly, has been great for skyscraper construction. Who cares about the negative externalities or what the social implications are - we've got towers to build and statistical dick-measuring contests to win!

[Nite]

Originally Posted by niwell

High percentage wage growth at the bottom end isn’t making things more affordable for those in low-paying jobs unless they have secure housing locked down. Some probably do. Younger people and newcomers not so much.

Anecdotally wages have gone up a ton in certain sectors for those at a certain point in their career. Most of my friends have seen their salaries increase ahead of inflation. But again house prices in Toronto have outpaced that which makes it a bit of a moot point. I suspect people in situations like that are the reason bars and restaurants are still so busy - if you can’t afford to buy may as well enjoy yourself. My relatives in Australia had this outlook a decade ago when they largely consigned themselves to renting unless an inheritance came in.

I would like to point out again that minimum wage workers in Canada saw amount the largest wage increase in 2023.
If you are saying they are still not keeping up, then the provincial government have it in their power to raise minimums at anytime to any level they want.

here is the increase in minimum wages for each province

Alb 0%
BC 7.0%
Man 13.3%
NB 7.3%
NFLD 9.5%
NWT 5.6%
NS 10.3%
NT 0%
Ont 6.8%
PEI 9.5%
Que 7.0%
Sask 7.7%
YT 6.8%

https://srv116.services.gc.ca/dimt-w...eCulture=en-CA

[shreddog]

Originally Posted by Nite

Wage growth in Canada is at nearly 2x the inflation rate right now and has been above inflation for a while.
...
you would be hard pressed to find another time in Canada history where wage growth has been a around 5% for such a long time and full 2% above inflation

Originally Posted by Nite

I would like to point out again that minimum wage workers in Canada saw amount the largest wage increase in 2023.

THANK YOU NITE!!!!

You have absolutely proven beyond a shadow of a doubt, that we are indeed living in the best of times in Canada.

Canadians - Young Canadians especially! - have never had it so good. With their wages sky rocketing, Millenials and GenZ's will be able to enjoy a standard of living far above anything their parents could have ever imagined!!

Again, thank you for finding, and posting, all these stats. Obviously if we didn't have you telling us how good things are, we might (just might mind you) have thought that things weren't all that rosy!

And of course, these good, no, great! times are all courtesy of our canny PM who has managed our economy with a laser focus on success for all, especially the next generation!!!

[Nite]

Originally Posted by shreddog

THANK YOU NITE!!!!

You have absolutely proven beyond a shadow of a doubt, that we are indeed living in the best of times in Canada.

Canadians - Young Canadians especially! - have never had it so good. With their wages sky rocketing, Millenials and GenZ's will be able to enjoy a standard of living far above anything their parents could have ever imagined!!

Again, thank you for finding, and posting, all these stats. Obviously if we didn't have you telling us how good things are, we might (just might mind you) have thought that things weren't all that rosy!

And of course, these good, no, great! times are all courtesy of our canny PM who has managed our economy with a laser focus on success for all, especially the next generation!!!

70% of business expenses are on wages in Canada. Since you think 5% wage growth is too low, I am curious what level of wage growth you think would be ideal and sustainable for the country that would not lead to runaway inflation?

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by Nite

70% of business expenses are on wages in Canada. Since you think 5% wage growth is too low, I am curious what level of wage growth you think would be ideal and sustainable for the country that would not lead to runaway inflation?

I think what Shreddog is alluding to is that the crisis lies not in overall wages, but in costs which those wages have to go to. And on that front, real estate has been on an insane runaway which completely destroys that increased income for anyone who isn't insulated from it.

For those insulated from real estate (i.e. existing homeowners) - life is pretty hunky-dory right now, generally speaking. For those that don't - good friggen luck!

And even that is limited with interest rates going where they are. The only ones really insulated from it are those who own their home outright or renewed their fixed mortgage in 2020-2022 - but even those people's days of insulation are time limited..

[LuluBobo]

Originally Posted by shreddog

THANK YOU NITE!!!!

You have absolutely proven beyond a shadow of a doubt, that we are indeed living in the best of times in Canada.

Canadians - Young Canadians especially! - have never had it so good. With their wages sky rocketing, Millenials and GenZ's will be able to enjoy a standard of living far above anything their parents could have ever imagined!!

Again, thank you for finding, and posting, all these stats. Obviously if we didn't have you telling us how good things are, we might (just might mind you) have thought that things weren't all that rosy!

And of course, these good, no, great! times are all courtesy of our canny PM who has managed our economy with a laser focus on success for all, especially the next generation!!!

I think this really highlights the tale of two Canadas.

The HCOL cities (primarily focused in southern Ontario and BC), where your point is absolutely correct. It is pure despair for the under 30s. Wages are suppressed, and housing costs are a chain that will weigh on their necks for their entire lives. Even those with good jobs are limited in purchasing property far above what they can reasonably afford, or at a lower quality than is reasonable.

The LCOL cities (Winnipeg, Regina, Saskatoon, Edmonton, Quebec City) are pretty much gravy. Good to great wages combined with low housing costs opens up a lot of doors and reduces stress life-long. A large house for 1-2x household income is common. I know several people in their late 30s who are mortgage free. Housing stress is only present for those making minimum wage. Abundant travel and early retirement are common.

This truth has been present for 30 years, but has been really divided in the last 10. The quality of life difference between a university-educated 30 year old in Toronto vs. Winnipeg is so stark that it's hard to even identify them as being the same demographic.


The rise of the MCOL cities (Calgary, Montreal, even Ottawa now) is the new paradigm. You don't have the chain of Toronto around your neck, but you don't have the financial freedom those cities had pre-pandemic.

I do find it interesting that the regions that hate Trudeau the most are the ones that have been bypassed by the housing crisis, where the regions the Liberals do strongest in are the most damaged by their housing policies.

[lio45]

For the Nth time, Nite, when we say that one of the effects of the Scheme is to make relative wages lower, it’s a shortcut to say “the number of hours most Canadians must work in order to have food on the table and a roof over their head is getting higher”, which as we pointed out to you 100+ times so far is not incompatible with “bbbbut… nominal wages are going up!”

[Nite]

a

Originally Posted by lio45

For the Nth time, Nite, when we say that one of the effects of the Scheme is to make relative wages lower, it’s a shortcut to say “the number of hours most Canadians must work in order to have food on the table and a roof over their head is getting higher”, which as we pointed out to you 100+ times so far is not incompatible with “bbbbut… nominal wages are going up!”

Wage growth in Canada is at nearly 2x the inflation rate right now and has been above inflation for a while.
For the last 12 month wage growth was at 5.0% while inflation for the same time period was 2.8%

you would be hard pressed to find another time in Canada history where wage growth has been a around 5% for such a long time and full 2% above inflation

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...40308a-eng.htm
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...40319a-eng.htm

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Nite

For the last 12 month wage growth was at 5.0%

Exactly, relative wages are going down:
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6995438

Thanks Justin for depressing Canadian wages! Nominal wages up a pathetic 5% (i.e. down compared to the cost of living with a roof over one’s head), while food bank use and homelessness keep breaking new records (as expected — it’s a direct effect of the Scheme).

By the way, this visible degradation of quality of life is why Canadians are going to kick this government out ASAP. Hopefully for Canadian workers, the next guy won’t pursue the same Wage Depression Scheme …

[Nite]

Originally Posted by lio45

Exactly, relative wages are going down:
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6995438

Thanks Justin for depressing Canadian wages! Nominal wages up a pathetic 5% (i.e. down compared to the cost of living with a roof over one’s head), while food bank use and homelessness keep breaking new records (as expected — it’s a direct effect of the Scheme).

By the way, this visible degradation of quality of life is why Canadians are going to kick this government out ASAP. Hopefully for Canadian workers, the next guy won’t pursue the same Wage Depression Scheme …

For relative value you would have to compare it to overall inflation which was 2.8% so relative wage increase was 2.2% above inflation for the past 12 months which is pretty high historically being so much above inflation.

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by Nite

For relative value you would have to compare it to overall inflation which was 2.8% so relative wage increase was 2.2% above inflation for the past 12 months which is pretty high historically being so much above inflation.

Overall cost of living inflation was not 2.8%.

The Consumer Price Index was 2.8%.

These are not the same thing, although one is the handiest sourced number to talk about the other.


I'd explain further, but I know I'm wasting my time with you. You may recall my previous analogy - if you're drowning, and you were previously 12" under water and now you are only 1" under - it doesn't matter. You still have no air and you are still drowning.