US Census Bureau data for Austin and other cities

[sjk]

These were Texas’ fastest-growing counties in 2024, according to new Census Bureau estimates

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/2024...ion-estimates/

"The 15 counties in the KXAN viewing area added more than 60,000 new residents between July 2023 and July 2024, according to the new estimates.

Caldwell County is the fastest-growing county in the area, with a population increase of 4.6%. Williamson, Hays and Bastrop counties each grew by more than 3%. Travis County’s population growth was slower, at 1.2%.

San Saba County was the only local county to see a decrease in the number of residents, down 0.6% from 5,543 to 5,508. Fayette County grew by just 0.01%, with an increase in population of just three.

When it comes to the actual number of residents, Williamson County added the most, with more than 25,000, accounting for 42.4% of all growth in the area. Travis County added more than 15,000 residents, while Hays County grew by more than 10,000.

Inward migration continues to drive much of the population growth in the Austin metro area, which officially includes Bastrop, Caldwell, Hays, Travis and Williamson counties.

In Caldwell County, 91.9% of all population growth was due to people moving into the county from elsewhere. Migration accounted for 88.4% of growth in Bastrop County, 84.5% in Hays County and 83.7% in Williamson County.

Travis County was the only county in the Austin metro to see a larger increase from natural change rather than migration. Natural change — births in the county — accounted for 61.8% of Travis County’s population increase.

In the metro as a whole, 72.2% of the population increase came from migration."

[drummer]

That article is a wealth of information and helpful interactive graphics. Thanks for sharing!

Top 7 biggest counties each have > 1 million (based on 2024 estimates, % since 2020 Census)

1. Harris (5,009,302) +5.87%
2. Dallas (2,656,028) +1.69%
3. Tarrant (2,230,708) +5.67%
4. Bexar (2,127,737) +5.89%
5. Travis (1,363,767) +5.71%
6. Collin (1,254,658) +17.66%
7. Denton (1,045,120) +15.29%


Beyond Travis, other counties in the metro (using CAMPO):

12. Williamson (727,480) +19.44%
19. Hays (292,029) +21.14%
42. Bastrop (114,931) +18.21%
64. Burnet (55,722) +13.43%
72. Caldwell (52,430) +14.28%
147. Blanco (13,358) +17.41%


I was surprised that Bell County hasn't seen higher % growth, but it's certainly not a small percentage...just figured it'd be higher. I think that will change in the near future.

15. Bell (399,578) +7.76%

[The ATX]

The data hasn't been sorted by Metro yet - just individual counties which makes gathering MSA populations tedious to say the least. But for Austin, the MSA grew by a very healthy 2.3% or 58K to 2,550,637, and that's on top of a revised 2023 estimate that added 19K to 2023's estimate. That means Austin could have been the fastest growing large Metro (1M+ population) in 2023 after all. I don't have enough data yet to compare Austin to other cities.

[JoninATX]

Metro estimates have been released.

San Antonio 2,763,006 - 47,297 - 1.74%

Austin 2,550,637 - 58,019 - 2.33%

Killeen-Temple 509,487 - 6,483 - 1.3%

Waco 307,123 - 1,693 - 0.6%

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pres...erto-rico.html

There are a few things I'd like to highlight, namely that Waco, Killeen & Temple area's are underrepresented in this updated census. I find it hard to believe that, considering the remarkable housing boom in that region, it showed minimal growth.

All combined, the entire central Texas IH 35 corridor is home to 6,130,253 residents.

[drummer]

Originally Posted by JoninATX

All combined, the entire central Texas IH 35 corridor is home to 6,130,253 residents.

And Spring Break is coming, so a lot of those residents will be traveling up and down I-35....

[The ATX]

Here's the list of the 20 fastest growing large Metros (1M+ population) for 2024. Austin's growth rate improved over 2023, but so did the rate for a few other cities. Austin is the #4 fastest growing large Metro while last year's #1 Jacksonville dropped to #7. Austin also passed Portland to become the #25 largest Metro.

[JACKinBeantown]

According to your source, Dallas-Fort Worth's growth was more than three times that of Austin's, with 177,922 vs. 58,019. Percentages only matter when the initial numbers are equal.



https://www.azquotes.com/picture-quo...n-29-86-34.jpg

[The ATX]

Originally Posted by JACKinBeantown

According to your source, Dallas-Fort Worth's growth was more than three times that of Austin's, with 177,922 vs. 58,019. Percentages only matter when the initial numbers are equal.



https://www.azquotes.com/picture-quo...n-29-86-34.jpg

Confusion like this happens every time new numbers are released. There are Growth Rates and there are Numerical Increases, and context is important. I provided the context in my post.

If you want to go by numerical increase instead of the growth rate for the 1M+ Metros then the top three are NYC, Houston and Dallas.

[JoninATX]

Originally Posted by drummer

And Spring Break is coming, so a lot of those residents will be traveling up and down I-35....

I hear ya... I loathe IH 35 traffic.

[Lobotomizer]

Haven't had a lot of time to look at the numbers, but an interesting couple of things I noticed that I find interesting.

According to these 2024 estimates the Austin metro is almost identical in size to where the San Antonio metro was in the 2020 census. It is interesting because a generation ago San Antonio was clearly in a tier ahead of Austin, but now the cities are very much peers like DFW and Greater Houston.

Another comparison which demonstrates how large Austin has become is according to these estimates the Austin metro is the size that the Denver metro was in 2010.

The Austin MSA is most likely going to break 3 million people by 2032 or 2033.

[LiveattheOasis]

Originally Posted by Lobotomizer

Haven't had a lot of time to look at the numbers, but an interesting couple of things I noticed that I find interesting.

According to these 2024 estimates the Austin metro is almost identical in size to where the San Antonio metro was in the 2020 census. It is interesting because a generation ago San Antonio was clearly in a tier ahead of Austin, but now the cities are very much peers like DFW and Greater Houston.

Another comparison which demonstrates how large Austin has become is according to these estimates the Austin metro is the size that the Denver metro was in 2010.

The Austin MSA is most likely going to break 3 million people by 2032 or 2033.

It has to be considered that a few counties will be added to the current MSA as well with growth pushing NW to Burnet County and SW towards Blanco County. That's starting to feel inevitable. Will be curious if the growth near Taylor will push Lee County into the possible MSA in the future.

[drummer]

Originally Posted by JoninATX

I hear ya... I loathe IH 35 traffic.

I will say that it was worse twenty years ago before a lot of the upgrades between ATX and DFW. Temple still sucks and there is a massive slowdown every time the wind blows, but Waco sucks slightly less now than back then.

But yes, the volume of traffic from here to there and everywhere supports the population increases we're experiencing along the corridor. It's almost as if high-speed rail could be justified by so much growth and travel along a single corridor.....

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by Lobotomizer

Haven't had a lot of time to look at the numbers, but an interesting couple of things I noticed that I find interesting.

According to these 2024 estimates the Austin metro is almost identical in size to where the San Antonio metro was in the 2020 census. It is interesting because a generation ago San Antonio was clearly in a tier ahead of Austin, but now the cities are very much peers like DFW and Greater Houston.

Another comparison which demonstrates how large Austin has become is according to these estimates the Austin metro is the size that the Denver metro was in 2010.

The Austin MSA is most likely going to break 3 million people by 2032 or 2033.

Actually, the Austin metro should surpass the 3 million mark right around January 2030. So, I expect the next Census to show Austin's metro at over 3 million (as of April 1, 2030). **Caveat: this is as of now. The estimated date will be further refined with each additional release of information.

Also, I expect Austin's metro and San Antonio metro to be numerically even around the end of 2030/early 2031. **Again - Caveat: this is as of now. The estimated date will be further refined with each additional release of information.

The algorithm I have used for over 25 years had my 2024 estimate for Austin only off by ~7,000 people. I had Austin at 2.543 million and the Census Bureau pegged it at 2.55 million.

Using this same system, Austin should have 2.615-2.625 million as of July 1, 2025. But, we won't know the official government estimate until March 2026.

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by LiveattheOasis

It has to be considered that a few counties will be added to the current MSA as well with growth pushing NW to Burnet County and SW towards Blanco County. That's starting to feel inevitable. Will be curious if the growth near Taylor will push Lee County into the possible MSA in the future.

I would be surprised if the Bureau does not designate a regional CSA for Austin by the 2030 census (forming a CSA with Austin's five current metro counties plus Burnet, Blanco and/or Lee counties).

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by drummer

It's almost as if high-speed rail could be justified by so much growth and travel along a single corridor.....

Unfortunately, I do not believe the current path of the high speed rail includes Austin.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by LiveattheOasis

Will be curious if the growth near Taylor will push Lee County into the possible MSA in the future.

Potentially Milam as well, since it's a straight shot down Highway 79.

[Lobotomizer]

Originally Posted by GoldenBoot

Actually, the Austin metro should surpass the 3 million mark right around January 2030. So, I expect the next Census to show Austin's metro at over 3 million (as of April 1, 2030). **Caveat: this is as of now. The estimated date will be further refined with each additional release of information.

Also, I expect Austin's metro and San Antonio metro to be numerically even around the end of 2030/early 2031. **Again - Caveat: this is as of now. The estimated date will be further refined with each additional release of information.

The algorithm I have used for over 25 years had my 2024 estimate for Austin only off by ~7,000 people. I had Austin at 2.543 million and the Census Bureau pegged it at 2.55 million.

Using this same system, Austin should have 2.615-2.625 million as of July 1, 2025. But, we won't know the official government estimate until March 2026.

Noice! Yeah, I was being very conservative with my prediction. Either way, this is phenomenal to witness.

I've been paying attention to this stuff for long enough to remember when it was controversial to say Austin would be larger than San Antonio one day, even though all the signs pointed to this outcome even 20 years ago.

[AusTex]

Originally Posted by drummer

.... It's almost as if high-speed rail could be justified by so much growth and travel along a single corridor.....

Originally Posted by GoldenBoot

Unfortunately, I do not believe the current path of the high speed rail includes Austin.

Americans and especially Texans have not been very "social" in their mind set in my 62 year life time. Rail travel was bought and sold years ago for the sake of individualism and not having to rub elbows.

We build private homes and corporate owned rentals, not owner occupied townhomes and dense multi-story owner occupied areas that Might support High-Speed Rail. We have just let the monied interests build what they what to build and Plan our Future. The quarterly profits is all that has mattered in my life time. Not the future of the "society." That is too "social" to be considered. No Rail For Us.

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by Lobotomizer

Noice! Yeah, I was being very conservative with my prediction. Either way, this is phenomenal to witness.

I've been paying attention to this stuff for long enough to remember when it was controversial to say Austin would be larger than San Antonio one day, even though all the signs pointed to this outcome even 20 years ago.

I know what you mean.

Interesting fact...since Austin's founding (Dec. 1839), its "metro" population has doubled every 20-25 years. At some point this will slow down. But, it's been pretty darn consistent.

[clubtokyo]

Austin is way less sprawling than Dallas, Houston or San Antonio. So as long as Austin/Metro is growing healthy I am happy.