Quote:
Originally Posted by sailor734
It should be interesting to see who offers for the PC's in Saint John Portland-Simonds. I'm not sure if that riding is all that strongly PC or if Trevor Holder's skill at retail politics was a big factor in past elections. Either way the Liberals have a bit of a star candidate in John Dornan.
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IDK if the ex-Horizon CEO will resonate with voters mad about healthcare, but we have no idea how PC the riding actually is, true.
However, we CAN tell how well Wayne Long did under the new lines in this riding, which is not a great proxy, as the PCs outrun the CPC almost everywhere Anglo (same with the PA and PPC). And, Long REALLY overperformed in 2021 vs Mel Norton, who seemed to phone it in. He's not a good proxy for Generic Liberal either but the data is relevant.
Federal
2019: 35 Con - 40 Lib - 12 NDP - 9 Grn - 2 PPC
2021: 31 Con - 48 Lib - 13 NDP - 2 Grn - 6 PPC
Provincial
2018: 52 PC - 29 Lib - 8 NDP - 8 Grn - 1 PA
2020: 55 PC - 29 Lib - 3 NDP - 9 Grn - 5 PA
I think this is the Anglo riding the Libs slipped the least in between 2018 and 2020.
This gives us a range of ~37% to ~60% willingness to vote for 'right of centre' parties, for the traditional CPC/PC parties 31%-55%. Dornan isn't Wayne Long, but the PCs won't have Trevor Holder. They have a lot of room to fall though. Holder's total and (margins of victory by year) follow, with the Liberals second every time. I didn't go back beyond 2003 because that's ancient history. Likewise these are the old boundaries but it's been pretty consistent.
2020- 55% (26%)
2018- 53% (24%)
2014- 49% (16%)
2010- 50% (15%)
2006- 50% (5%) 3 parties only
2003- 41% (2%) 3 parties only
Since the emergence of the Greens, they've gotten 5-9%, and while the Green moment seems to have passed or stalled, I doubt they go below 7-8%. The PA only ever ran candidates in 2020 (5%) and back in 2010 (1.5%). It's safe to assume they will either not run here or get 2-4% at most.
I would tentatively call this a Lean PC seat but we will need to know who they run. A nurse practitioner could be a strong pick vs. a Horizon CEO (not hinting at anyone just spitballing haha).
Lancaster just 'feels' more likely to stay PC. Dunno why. It's marginally bluer federally, marginally bluer provincially, with a big asterisk in 2014 when Abel LeBlanc tried to return as an NDPer and Peter McGuire ran for the Liberals. It's hardly grown, it had a strong 2018 PA vote (14%), and Shephard would have dragged them down if she tried to hang on, 713 opinions irrelevant. She was widely perceived as in over her head in Health. I don't think Holt's brand of Liberal is a very good fit for the area.
SJ Harbour... who knows? Dunn got a huge boost from killing AIM. And is Hickey strong? He barely made it on to City Council this term. He's got Wayne Long's friendship and likely his lists of donors and supporters, which helps in a low turnout seat like this. However, it's not like Dunn will be running with no help. The Green candidate will matter a lot here. I'd call this one a pure tossup.
If you DESPERATELY want a heavily right-of-centre voting riding that could act funny, Fundy-The Isles-Lorneville (a much better way to draw it than the old discontiguous-by-road version that took in South Bay instead of Route 1 COI Lorneville btw) seems more likely to produce a weird result than any of the SJ ridings. No real center of population. Grand Manan+Deer, St George, Blacks Harbour+Pennfield, and Musquash+Lorneville each form 20-30% of its population. Rick Doucet used to run very well out here, and that's not ancient history. It's an odd corner of the province, and Anderson-Mason never exactly ran from the right.
Continuing through the area, I think Kings Centre/Rothesay/Quispamsis are staying PC in anything short of a wave. Saint John East, maybe one mm less likely to do so.
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