Quebec, the French Language, and Quebecois Identity

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

That phenomenon is over because there's no way that Quebec would continue to slip behind the rest of Canada (or Ontario) economically forever. Things tend to equilibrate, economically, especially within a country despite language and cultural barriers.

Like can you imagine if you could pay a worker $30,000 to make the same widget in St-Jean-sur-Richelieu that you had to pay a worker $80,000 to make in Chatham?

Here on SSP, we tend to be kind of rah-rah about our respective home provinces, but the truth is that all provinces (and actually most western countries) all kind of play catch up with one another, and no one place is head-over-heels better than somewhere else in terms of talent, leadership, economic practices or even location. Within Canada, we've seen Atlantic Canada and Quebec come up from behind in the last decade, while places like Alberta and Saskatchewan, that seemed like they had left us all for dust in the early 2000s, are stuck in a holding pattern.

Someone123 has mentioned a few times that this is evidence of the Canadian project (finally) starting to work reasonably well for most regions of the country.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

François Legault is often said to be obsessed with Quebec "catching up" to Ontario. Some stats to put that in perspective.

That is nearly impossible, due to advantage that the English language confers to Ontario within Canada, it will always attract more immigrants, and more businesses. Also the fact that Toronto is now the largest metropolis of Canada (itself due to the English language), means it attracts a disproportionate share of the top businesses in most sectors within Canada, and head functions in particular.

Québec could pass Ontario only if it became an independent country and played its cards rights by becoming a niche economy, a bit like Switzerland or Luxembourg or Ireland. I can't see how Québec could ever possibly pass Ontario within Canada. That's science fiction.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

That is nearly impossible, due to advantage that the English language confers to Ontario within Canada, it will always attract more immigrants, and more businesses. Also the fact that Toronto is now the largest metropolis of Canada (itself due to the English language), means it attracts a disproportionate share of the top businesses in most sectors within Canada, and head functions in particular.

Québec could pass Ontario only if it became an independent country and played its cards rights by becoming a niche economy, a bit like Switzerland or Luxembourg or Ireland. I can't see how Québec could ever possibly pass Ontario within Canada. That's science fiction.

Legault is thinking of per capita numbers, not total GDP or even population size.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

GDP per capita is what matters for personal well being. This has stagnated but Genz Z whining aside there is no argument we are not better off than 20 30 years ago. Ask someone 60 or 70 what it was like to be a high school or college graduate in Montreal when they were 20. The vacations clothes, food and housing comforts we enjoy are really unapparelled.

This below are figures from the OECD. They are the only ones calculating GDP figures for Canadian metro areas.

Note that the metro areas here are not Statcan's CMAs, but are an international definition of the metropolitan areas (called "Functional Urban Area", or FUA), which are larger by definition than Statcan's CMAs (Toronto's metro area based on this international definition has a population of 7.6 million, Montréal has 4.6 million).

Figures are in constant USD.

GDP per capita in 2001:
Toronto metro area: 45,280
Vancouver metro area: 38,193
Montréal metro area: 35,100

GDP per capita in 2010:
Toronto metro area: 42,557
Vancouver metro area: 40,908
Montréal metro area: 35,814

GDP per capita in 2019:
Toronto metro area: 46,358
Vancouver metro area: 46,170
Montréal metro area: 39,807

Real GDP per capita growth 2001-2010:
Vancouver metro area: +7.1%
Montréal metro area: +2.0%
Toronto metro area: -6.0%

Real GDP per capita growth 2010-2019:
Vancouver metro area: +12.9%
Montréal metro area: +11.1%
Toronto metro area: +8.9%

Real GDP per capita growth 2001-2019:
- Winnipeg metro area: +21.3%
- Vancouver metro area: +20.9%
- Québec City metro area: +16.0%
- Montréal metro area: +13.4%
- Edmonton metro area: +9.0%
- Ottawa metro area (ON + QC): +7.4%
- Halifax metro area: +5.9%
- Calgary metro area: +4.4%
- Toronto metro area: +2.4%

[Acajack]

Median household incomes for all families in 2021 in Toronto was about 118000, 115000 in Vancouver and 111000 in Montreal.

Not a huge difference when you consider how much cheaper it is to live in Montreal than the other two.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=1110019001

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Legault is thinking of per capita numbers, not total GDP or even population size.

Even per capita is impossible within the context of Canada, because Ontario and Toronto act as the economic capital of Canada, so they will always have a higher GDP per capita than Québec and Montréal (except if Québec discovered some Saudi-size oil fields or something similar).

For the same reason, Scotland just cannot have a higher GDP per capita than England, and Edinburgh cannot have a higher GDP per capita than London, because it is a secondary center, satellite of London and England, whereas independent Ireland was able to achieve a higher GDP per capita than England, and Dublin a higher GDP per capita than London, because they are not a 2ndary center of England anymore, but they are their own country, able to make their own choices, and where Dublin is a full political and economic capital of its own country, and not some provincial center 2nd to London as Edinburgh is.

This is the case in all countries. Osaka will never have a higher GDP per capita than Tokyo, Lyon will never have a higher GDP per capita than Paris, etc. The only exceptions to that rule is when a 2ndary province either has some exceptional natural resources (think Alberta in Canada, or Groningen in the Netherlands), or when it is small enough so it can create a niche for itself (think Schwytz within Switzerland). But Montréal and Québec are too big to base their economy on a particular niche within Canada that could propel their GDP per capita above Ontario, and they don't have the natural ressources of Alberta (whose extractive model with no regard to the environment is anyway coming to an end).

The only way they could possibly pass Ontario per capita would be if they were an independent country. And then they would have to play their cards really right, because independence per se is of not course not a magic wand. It all depends what you make of it.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Even per capita is impossible within the context of Canada, because Ontario and Toronto act as the economic capital of Canada, so they will always have a higher GDP per capita than Québec and Montréal (except if Québec discovered some Saudi-size oil fields or something similar).

For the same reason, Scotland just cannot have a higher GDP per capita than England, and Edinburgh cannot have a higher GDP per capita than London, because it is a secondary center, satellite of London and England, whereas independent Ireland was able to achieve a higher GDP per capita than England, and Dublin a higher GDP per capita than London, because they are not a 2ndary center of England anymore, but they are their own country, able to make their own choices, and where Dublin is a full political and economic capital of its own country, and not some provincial center 2nd to London as Edinburgh is.

This is the case in all countries. Osaka will never have a higher GDP per capita than Tokyo, Lyon will never have a higher GDP per capita than Paris, etc. The only exceptions to that rule is when a 2ndary province either has some exceptional natural resources (think Alberta in Canada, or Groningen in the Netherlands), or when it is small enough so it can create a niche for itself (think Schwytz within Switzerland). But Montréal and Québec are too big to base their economy on a particular niche within Canada that could propel their GDP per capita above Ontario, and they don't have the natural ressources of Alberta (whose extractive model with no regard to the environment is anyway coming to an end).

The only way they could possibly pass Ontario per capita would be if they were an independent country. And then they would have to play their cards really right, because independence per se is of not course not a magic wand. It all depends what you make of it.

I generally agree with this. Quebec having a higher per capita GDP than Ontario is extremely unlikely. It can still have a comparable or even better standing of living due to other factors though. It's arguably pretty close to that already, I'd say.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

There is a language barrier, yes, but if things were so bad in Toronto and Vancouver, many people would spend half a year becoming fluent in French and make the jump to Montreal.

That's extremely, EXTREMELY unlikely. Language barriers are big barriers (that add up on top of geographic and psychological barriers). In Wallonia, the economy is bad (in a way it will never be as bad in Toronto or Vancouver), unemployment is high, yet almost close to 0 Walloon learn Dutch and move to Flanders where the economy is booming and there is full employment.

And we're talking of moving only 50 km here, not 1,000 to 5,000 km as in Canada.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

This below are figures from the OECD. They are the only ones calculating GDP figures for Canadian metro areas.

Statistics Canada publish annual GDP numbers for CMAs.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Even per capita is impossible within the context of Canada, because Ontario and Toronto act as the economic capital of Canada, so they will always have a higher GDP per capita than Québec and Montréal (except if Québec discovered some Saudi-size oil fields or something similar).

For the same reason, Scotland just cannot have a higher GDP per capita than England, and Edinburgh cannot have a higher GDP per capita than London, because it is a secondary center, satellite of London and England, whereas independent Ireland was able to achieve a higher GDP per capita than England, and Dublin a higher GDP per capita than London, because they are not a 2ndary center of England anymore, but they are their own country, able to make their own choices, and where Dublin is a full political and economic capital of its own country, and not some provincial center 2nd to London as Edinburgh is.

This is the case in all countries. Osaka will never have a higher GDP per capita than Tokyo, Lyon will never have a higher GDP per capita than Paris, etc. The only exceptions to that rule is when a 2ndary province either has some exceptional natural resources (think Alberta in Canada, or Groningen in the Netherlands), or when it is small enough so it can create a niche for itself (think Schwytz within Switzerland). But Montréal and Québec are too big to base their economy on a particular niche within Canada that could propel their GDP per capita above Ontario, and they don't have the natural ressources of Alberta (whose extractive model with no regard to the environment is anyway coming to an end).

The only way they could possibly pass Ontario per capita would be if they were an independent country. And then they would have to play their cards really right, because independence per se is of not course not a magic wand. It all depends what you make of it.

I don't know if Ireland's high GDP on paper is what an independent Quebec should strive for.

Even if it didn't go completely against the Quebec ethos, is this even replicable? Ireland is a tax shelter for foreign corporations that want to do business in the EU. I don't see a foreign multinational like Huawei or Samsung incorporating in Quebec so it can take advantage of USMCA trade rules with the US, or something like that.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

I don't know if Ireland's high GDP on paper is what an independent Quebec should strive for.

Even if it didn't go completely against the Quebec ethos, is this even replicable? Ireland is a tax shelter for foreign corporations that want to do business in the EU. I don't see a foreign multinational like Huawei or Samsung incorporating in Quebec so it can take advantage of USMCA trade rules with the US, or something like that.

I think that's what he is saying.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

That's extremely, EXTREMELY unlikely. Language barriers are big barriers (that add up on top of geographic and psychological barriers). In Wallonia, the economy is bad (in a way it will never be as bad in Toronto or Vancouver), unemployment is high, yet almost close to 0 Walloon learn Dutch and move to Flanders where the economy is booming and there is full employment.

And we're talking of moving only 50 km here, not 1,000 to 5,000 km as in Canada.

Sure, but 50% of Wallonia isn't made up of people whose mother tongue isn't even French, as is the case with English in Toronto and Vancouver. And if you're unemployed in Charleroi, wouldn't it make more sense to move to Paris? Torontonians can't move to Boston or New York as freely because of visa requirements.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Even per capita is impossible within the context of Canada, because Ontario and Toronto act as the economic capital of Canada, so they will always have a higher GDP per capita than Québec and Montréal (except if Québec discovered some Saudi-size oil fields or something similar).

For the same reason, Scotland just cannot have a higher GDP per capita than England, and Edinburgh cannot have a higher GDP per capita than London, because it is a secondary center, satellite of London and England, whereas independent Ireland was able to achieve a higher GDP per capita than England, and Dublin a higher GDP per capita than London, because they are not a 2ndary center of England anymore, but they are their own country, able to make their own choices, and where Dublin is a full political and economic capital of its own country, and not some provincial center 2nd to London as Edinburgh is.

This is the case in all countries. Osaka will never have a higher GDP per capita than Tokyo, Lyon will never have a higher GDP per capita than Paris, etc. The only exceptions to that rule is when a 2ndary province either has some exceptional natural resources (think Alberta in Canada, or Groningen in the Netherlands), or when it is small enough so it can create a niche for itself (think Schwytz within Switzerland). But Montréal and Québec are too big to base their economy on a particular niche within Canada that could propel their GDP per capita above Ontario, and they don't have the natural ressources of Alberta (whose extractive model with no regard to the environment is anyway coming to an end).

The only way they could possibly pass Ontario per capita would be if they were an independent country. And then they would have to play their cards really right, because independence per se is of not course not a magic wand. It all depends what you make of it.

I don't think there is any economic theory that says an Independent Quebec would have better GDP growth.

I think Scotland does have higher per capita GDP than UK average no? Alberta certainly has a higher one than Ontario. Quebec is converging with Ontario and if it continues to be better managed and with lower mass immigration could pass it. Frankly the numbers this year might show a huge narrowing of that gap given population growth in Ontario.
There are many smaller regions that have higher GDP per capita than the economic centres of said countries. Washington State has a higher average than California for example. I doubt that was true 40 years ago.

Ireland has a fake high GDP because of tax avoidance.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

I don't know if Ireland's high GDP on paper is what an independent Quebec should strive for.

Even if it didn't go completely against the Quebec ethos, is this even replicable? Ireland is a tax shelter for foreign corporations that want to do business in the EU. I don't see a foreign multinational like Huawei or Samsung incorporating in Quebec so it can take advantage of USMCA trade rules with the US, or something like that.

Ireland is a tax haven (and I'm mad enough with this situation), but even if it weren't a tax haven, it's GDP per capita would be higher than England considering the other, real sectors (just not so outrageously higher of course).

There's no denying that Dublin was able to prosper a lot due to its situation as the capital city of an independent country. Think of their stock exchange for example, which wouldn't exist if they were still a provincial city of the UK.

But like I said it's not a magic wand either of course. It's completely possible that an independent Québec could go the way of Venezuela (in the worst case scenario). Although, being an independent country, they would probably pay much more attention to what they are doing, knowing that there is no Ottawa to bail them out anymore. Like a young adult becoming financially independent from their parents, and therefore more serious.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Ireland has a fake high GDP because of tax avoidance.

No. If you look at incomes per capita (i.e. the money people actually get on their bank accounts every month), it's higher than in the UK and England. Same in Dublin compared to London. So it's not just a GDP bubble.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Statistics Canada publish annual GDP numbers for CMAs.

First time I see that. Have they started publishing these recently? On SSC the Canadian forumers were always complaining there were no GDP figures below the province level.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

Sure, but 50% of Wallonia isn't made up of people whose mother tongue isn't even French, as is the case with English in Toronto and Vancouver. And if you're unemployed in Charleroi, wouldn't it make more sense to move to Paris? Torontonians can't move to Boston or New York as freely because of visa requirements.

Chinese and Indian immigrants in Québec are notorious for not making great efforts to speak French, and sticking to English. So what makes you believe that Chinese and Indian immigrants living in BC or Ontario would magically learn French to move to Montréal? That seems unlikely.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Chinese and Indian immigrants in Québec are notorious for not making great efforts to speak French, and sticking to English. So what makes you believe that Chinese and Indian immigrants living in BC or Ontario would magically learn French to move to Montréal? That seems unlikely.

Yeah it seems like there is ample evidence that just because someone already speaks Punjabi, Hindi and English, doesn't make them any more likely to learn French. (Or any other additional language.)

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I think Scotland does have higher per capita GDP than UK average no?

In 2019, Scotland had a GDP per capita of £30,727, whereas England had a GDP per capita of £34,159.

By constituent nations of the UK:
- England: £34,159
- Scotland: £30,727
- Northern Ireland: £26,394
- Wales: £24,830
ENTIRE UK: £33,510

GDP per capita by so-called "city regions":
- Greater London: £57,500
- Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region: £34,505
- Glasgow City Region: £29,288

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

Sure, but 50% of Wallonia isn't made up of people whose mother tongue isn't even French, as is the case with English in Toronto and Vancouver. And if you're unemployed in Charleroi, wouldn't it make more sense to move to Paris? Torontonians can't move to Boston or New York as freely because of visa requirements.

Wallonia is more diverse that you might think. Brussels, technically not in Wallonia but which serves as Wallonia's big city, is close to 50% non-Belgian in terms of population make-up.

There are also immigrants of all sorts of origins all over the region.