AUSTIN | Project Updates Thread Part II

[Jdawgboy]

Happy New Year everyone!!!





:pillowfight:

[urbancore]

Bored at the office.....

I am often asked "how long with the Austin housing market continue to appreciate, when is the next bust?"

My response is, " as long as jobs are being created YoY, real estate prices (values) will increase"....couple that with being a cost alternative to the coasts, and zoning/building ordinances that ensure scarcity/high cost barrier to entry....and you there you have it.

Our last 3 recessions were a bit out of Austin's hands:

mid to late 80's- cheap oil crippled the entire Texas economy.....add in the S&L crisis (people opening up savings and loans and loaning money on bs deals based on speculation to their buddies. The good that came of this was the over saturation of apartment housing stock, which led to myself and others living in Austin in brand new apartments for pretty cheap...compared to what we earned, for nearly a decade. (this is the time EVERYONE pines for....."i lived in a cool historic house in Hyde Park for like $600/mo, while I delivered Pizza for Conan's and my band played punk rock at the Hole in the Wall...life was great", they say.)

2000-2002 "irrational exuberance"....we all saw it....with hind-site.

2008-2012 credit default swaps, no doc loans, Glass-Steagall possibly...regardless, dipshits on Wall Street screwed the pooch for many of us. Austin got a wonderful buying opportunity....an opportunity I jumped on having not gone as full force as I should have in the early aughts and missed the bull market of the late 90's (which was crazy strong, if you all recall) Friends called me crazy for buying in 2011......yeah.....like a fox.

Of course I don't go into all this with folks, they typically just want to know if it is time to buy/sell.

So my question to you all (or the mods at least) is...... Can we start a thread dedicated to "announced" or "planned jobs" in the urban core and metro area? I believe this is the BIGGEST indicator of whether or not a building/development will follow through at one point or another. I think it would be great to have a "Next Wave of Jobs" similar to our thread for buildings. We can rank them according to number of jobs and when they plan to begin-wrap up hiring, and of course where those jobs are going. I also think, this can be an indicator of companies looking for DT space that we may not have on our radar....looking at Sales Force, who would be an obvious fit for a new building that we may not even know about.

I know it's not directly skyscraper related, but I do think it is just as related as who is financing a project. Those financiers know these numbers better than anyone, and if they sign on...it's because they believe in the strength of our (indirect) ability to pay back the loan.....through jobs.

Thoughts?

[We vs us]

I think you're right on target. It's completely important content if you want to understand what's happening here.

You should start that thread immediamente.

[The ATX]

This sounds like an "Austin Economy" or "Austin Economic Development" thread. That would be entirely appropriate, and we haven't had one of those in a long time - if ever.

[clubtokyo]

I like this idea, discussing the economy is very much tied to development.

[H2O]

https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/n...UXog53DI3stFz8

[lonewolf]

I think calling 08-12 in Austin a "bust" would be a healthy exaggeration. We half stalled for a few years

[urbancore]

Originally Posted by lonewolf

I think calling 08-12 in Austin a "bust" would be a healthy exaggeration. We half stalled for a few years

you are correct...wolfy. I wouldn't call it a "bust" either. I called it a recession which it certainly was. The city of Austin may not technically been in a recession (2 quarters of negative GDP growth), but the national capital market killed deals I was working on both commercial and residential. Austin typically weathers these events better than most cities, partly due to NYMBYs and partly due to the fact we are just a large college town overflowing with youthful optimism.

There were people who took it on the chin though: I saw quite a bit of it and it taught me a huge lesson. Loads of RE/development/mortgage/builders took jobs doing whatever they could. But the rest of our economy chugged along, which helped us come back so quickly.

One big skyscraper lesson, don't buy the less desirable side of a building (east facing Milago or the Shore for instance). While lake facing units still traded at 80%, the east facing units struggled and many were forced to short sale or worse.

All that said, when we were in the middle of it....say 2010, it was scary. Not too many people I knew were optimistic....many couldn't get financing with 20% dn, and I knew of NOBODY who called the bottom or even close, till after it happened of course.

[The ATX]

News has been slow lately. So I updated the Tallest Projects list for the new year in the sticky thread.

[AusTxDevelopment]

Originally Posted by urbancore

Bored at the office.....


So my question to you all (or the mods at least) is...... Can we start a thread dedicated to "announced" or "planned jobs" in the urban core and metro area? I believe this is the BIGGEST indicator of whether or not a building/development will follow through at one point or another. I think it would be great to have a "Next Wave of Jobs" similar to our thread for buildings. We can rank them according to number of jobs and when they plan to begin-wrap up hiring, and of course where those jobs are going. I also think, this can be an indicator of companies looking for DT space that we may not have on our radar....looking at Sales Force, who would be an obvious fit for a new building that we may not even know about.

Thoughts?

Here is something to start with. The Chamber tracks announcements with job creation counts, but its not comprehensive. https://www.austinchamber.com/econom...ons-expansions

[enragedcamel]

Hey everyone,

I just deployed a new version of Build Upward. Features:

- User accounts (go ahead and sign up!)
- Can create and edit projects (need to verify your email first!)
- Added Forth Worth as a city (forum user Austin55 volunteered to maintain it)
- Map view is now available on mobile screens
- Zooming on a project now makes its map marker BOUNCE!!!

In the next version (which I have scheduled for sometime in February), you'll be able to post updates to a project, such as by uploading photos and comments. But if y'all want me to add new cities, I can do that pretty quickly.

[urbancore]

Originally Posted by enragedcamel

Hey everyone,

I just deployed a new version of Build Upward. Features:

- User accounts (go ahead and sign up!)
- Can create and edit projects (need to verify your email first!)
- Added Forth Worth as a city (forum user Austin55 volunteered to maintain it)
- Map view is now available on mobile screens
- Zooming on a project now makes its map marker BOUNCE!!!

In the next version (which I have scheduled for sometime in February), you'll be able to post updates to a project, such as by uploading photos and comments. But if y'all want me to add new cities, I can do that pretty quickly.

Nice. Thanks.

[gillynova]

Originally Posted by enragedcamel

Hey everyone,

I just deployed a new version of Build Upward. Features:

- User accounts (go ahead and sign up!)
- Can create and edit projects (need to verify your email first!)
- Added Forth Worth as a city (forum user Austin55 volunteered to maintain it)
- Map view is now available on mobile screens
- Zooming on a project now makes its map marker BOUNCE!!!

In the next version (which I have scheduled for sometime in February), you'll be able to post updates to a project, such as by uploading photos and comments. But if y'all want me to add new cities, I can do that pretty quickly.

I think I saw you posted this on Reddit too. Love it and thanks for creating this!

[Sigaven]

Originally Posted by enragedcamel

Hey everyone,

I just deployed a new version of Build Upward. Features:

- User accounts (go ahead and sign up!)
- Can create and edit projects (need to verify your email first!)
- Added Forth Worth as a city (forum user Austin55 volunteered to maintain it)
- Map view is now available on mobile screens
- Zooming on a project now makes its map marker BOUNCE!!!

In the next version (which I have scheduled for sometime in February), you'll be able to post updates to a project, such as by uploading photos and comments. But if y'all want me to add new cities, I can do that pretty quickly.

I dunno if it's just my computer but all of the map markers seem to be shifted over about a block and a half to the west and half a block south of where they need to be.

[jbssfelix]

Originally Posted by enragedcamel

Hey everyone,

I just deployed a new version of Build Upward. Features:

- User accounts (go ahead and sign up!)
- Can create and edit projects (need to verify your email first!)
- Added Forth Worth as a city (forum user Austin55 volunteered to maintain it)
- Map view is now available on mobile screens
- Zooming on a project now makes its map marker BOUNCE!!!

In the next version (which I have scheduled for sometime in February), you'll be able to post updates to a project, such as by uploading photos and comments. But if y'all want me to add new cities, I can do that pretty quickly.

If you add Denver, I can start throwing those projects on here now that I'm out here in the western frontier. Yee haw.

[gillynova]

Originally Posted by Sigaven

I dunno if it's just my computer but all of the map markers seem to be shifted over about a block and a half to the west and half a block south of where they need to be.

Same for me. Look at where the Natiivo is located (in the water).

Definitely a work in progress but so far REALLY good job!

[enragedcamel]

Originally Posted by Sigaven

I dunno if it's just my computer but all of the map markers seem to be shifted over about a block and a half to the west and half a block south of where they need to be.

Originally Posted by gillynova

Same for me. Look at where the Natiivo is located (in the water).

Definitely a work in progress but so far REALLY good job!

Thanks guys, I had the wrong latitude/longitude recorded for some reason when I was hand-keying the original set of data . Should be fixed now.

Originally Posted by jbssfelix

If you add Denver, I can start throwing those projects on here now that I'm out here in the western frontier. Yee haw.

Denver is on there now. If you run into any issues creating projects for it, let me know.

[enragedcamel]

Originally Posted by gillynova

I think I saw you posted this on Reddit too. Love it and thanks for creating this!

I haven't posted it to Reddit yet -- not sure I trust Reddit's userbase to not go in and mess something up . I think I'd want to add some type of permission model first, so that only certain types of users can create and edit projects (and it would be view-only for everyone else).

[gillynova]

Heh well I remember someone posting it on Reddit. I'm not sure who posted the link over there. It was when the BBVA tower was first announced.

[Sigaven]

Originally Posted by enragedcamel

Thanks guys, I had the wrong latitude/longitude recorded for some reason when I was hand-keying the original set of data . Should be fixed now.

Fixed for me!