APTA has released the Q1 ridership numbers:
http://www.apta.com/resources/statistics/Documents/Ridership/2015-q1-ridership-APTA.pdf
Overall, UTA is #9 for Light Rail ridership and #8 for Commuter Rail.
For the breakdown of the numbers:
Frontrunner:
15.9K average daily riders. 3.62% increase over Q1 2014.
Trax:
64.9K average daily riders. -1.26% decrease over Q1 2014
Bus:
74.5K average daily riders.
5.58% increase over Q1 2014.
Total:
164.5K average daily UTA riders/users. 2.32% increase over Q1 2014.
These numbers are quite shocking. The first is that Frontrunner is still gaining ridership at a fairly quick pace. Nearly 4% year over year growth is great.
Trax losing 1.26% ridership is probably due to FanX being in Q1 2014 and Q2 2015. The total ridership difference between 2015 and 2014 was approximately 61K riders. FanX in 2014 was estimated to have induced nearly 100K transit trips. So while Trax was down year over year, we do see how large events (conventions) do play into ridership.
Buses gaining
5.58% was the biggest shock. Transit ridership is generally at its highest in Q4. By this we look at Q4 2014 bus ridership and it was at 72.1K daily. 2015 is starting off at 74.5K daily. -- Does anyone know roughly how much of this could be due to the transit fare change (distance based) on the few routes in Provo?
It will be fun to watch the bus ridership numbers as we increase bus service on the August change day. Increasing 15 minute frequencies along multiple high ridership routes should induce more riders.
Total ridership - Q4 2014 was 166.0K daily. Q1 2015 is starting at 164.5 daily. This does bode well for further ridership increases the rest of the year.
Does anyone have any thoughts on if UTA will reach it's ridership goal of "Doubling transit ridership by the end of 2019 from the numbers at the end of 2013 (I think that is the year)?"
For reference those numbers were and would need to be:
Frontrunner: 2013 - 14.7K daily -- 2019 - 29.4K daily
Trax: 2013 - 68.1K daily -- 2019 - 136.2K daily
Bus: 2013 - 72.2K daily -- 2019 - 144.4K daily
Total: 2013 - 163.4K daily -- 2019 - 326.8K daily
Frontrunner should be able to hit the level if the studies are true about increased frequency (15m peak and 30m off peak). Studies had it estimated at 36+K daily.
Bus is on it's way with the increase in Q1 and the planned BRT lines as well as the planned additional hours and frequency upgrades happening on the August change day.
-Orem/Provo and 5600 West should account for roughly 30K to 40K ridership increase by 2019. Other changes ridership should amount for roughly 50K - 80K ridership depending on if UTA is able to see its bonding capacity increase by 2017 (planned tax increase wouldn't go for additional planned BRT lines until 2018 I think at the earliest).
Trax, should see some increase due to the bus and Frontrunner increase.
I still waiver a bit on if the goal is in fact plausible to hit. To fully hit it though, ridership would need to be increasing at more than double if not triple the increases we are seeing.
Now, with that said, I do think it is possible if everything works as projected. The biggest aspect of this would be distance based fares. Most of that depends on the fare cap outside of Frontrunner and the scale. If it is $0.10 to $0.25 per mile, I think ridership will see a large jump as many more people will use transit for shorter trips.
I think we will have a better idea if the goal is plausible come Q4 of 2015. With this: Did the Tax increase happen this year? Did the additional hours/frequency of the few lines continue the increase in bus ridership?
These 2 questions will determine a lot on if the goal is reached by the end of 2019 or not.