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  #621  
Old Posted Feb 17, 2024, 10:43 PM
zahav zahav is offline
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As others have said, Australia is a very different market and their city geography is very different than here. Especially compared to the ease of travel between YYZ/YOW/YUL. Driving cars or taking the train are more reasonable between these cities, flights exist but are by no means the most popular way to travel. Melbourne is quite far by car to the other major cities, so flying is much more common. The drive from MEL to SYD is over 8 and a half hours. Much more similar in length to YVR-YYC than YYZ-YUL (not sure if it's as intense as having to drive from YVR to YYC, which is exclusively mountains. But definitely far enough to favour plane travel. If you want to be wowed, do a Google Flights search from MEL-SYD, it is insane. I chose a random Monday in July, and counted 86 flights EACH WAY. And they aren't turboprops or regional jets, they are all mainline jets (737, A320, A321). So we're talking a lot of capacity, and incredibly high frequency. Interesting that the gameplay for every carrier on the route (QF, VA, JQ, and ZL) is the same: high frequency is most important obviously, as all carriers operate almost identical aircraft and capacity, and focus on # of flights. Case in point: on that Monday I picked, there is only one widebody flight, a single QF A330. I expected there to be several wide bodies, even with that frequency. Airlines like Air Canada have been moving to a lower frequency, larger aircraft strategy. AC definitely has lower frequency on almost all of their major domestic routes, compared to 10 years ago. Across most routes, frequency is lower or stagnant from before. But that's because the aircraft used have grown in capacity, so the routes have grown overall. This is true at Jazz as well. They went from using 18, 37, or 50 seat planes to almost everything either 76 or 78 seats. That's a massive jump in seats per plane, so of course it has meant frequency cuts on regional routes. Air Canada would rather put a bigger plane on a route than increase frequency). With that said, I have a weird airport OCD that I can't explain, it's just a weird thing I have. I get annoyed when and AC route is all mainline but with like one or two Jazz flights. For some reason it annoys me when it is 95% mainline, and then one or a couple Jazz flights. Keep it all Jazz or all mainline lol. Examples include YVR-YYC, YVR-YEG, YYZ-YUL. Almost all mainline except for one or two, gahhhh, just make them 100% mainline! YUL-YQB is the worst, it has Jazz, mainline, and Rouge ooofff why?!?! Years ago, AC had 16+ daily flights on the route, compared to 4-5 nowadays. But it used to be all DH1 and DH3, so way smaller than a mainline 737, rouge 319, or Jazz DH4. I'm sure a lot of frequent fliers or business people miss the rapid frequency of yesteryear, and aren't thrilled about only 4-5 flights a day. YVR-YYJ is a similar story, but not as dramatic. Went from ~15 daily to ~8 now, and still Jazz, but all on 78-pax planes, rather than 37 or 50. So not a massive difference in offering. Plus there's so many options between Vancouver and Victoria like sea planes, helicopters, and regional airlines like WS Encore or Pacific Coastal.

But still, the trend is obvious, AC is more than willing to sacrifice frequency for larger planes. On YUL-YYZ this summer, frequency looks to be around 15-16 daily. Equipment is also variable depending on the day; some days have no widebody service, sometimes twice, and most commonly, once daily. It is the onward portion of MXP-YUL, since they axed the non-stop MXP-YYZ, and is an A330 aircraft. But it is formally a continuation of MXP-YYZ, and note a route in its own right. AC used to also have a thru flight # GVA-YUL-YYZ that was on a widebody as well, but that appears to be gone, and replaced with the standard connecting between one international flight segment and a unique domestic flight. Same as they did with SYD-YVR-YYZ.
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  #622  
Old Posted Feb 17, 2024, 11:06 PM
Myst Myst is offline
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I keep hearing that as soon as three airlines are flying on a route, that prices for that route will fall by half. Has anyone else ever heard of this before?
There’s quite a few questions that would raise to understand the answer…. Where have you heard this? Who said it? When? In which context? In what markets?

For that matter what does it mean - the average price falls by half? The lowest fare offered (even if it is only available on one or two seats on the 29th of February?). Does that refer to an initial or long term drop?
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  #623  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2024, 6:17 PM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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@zahav, once the freeway was completed, much of the drive between Melbourne and Sydney looks like the drive along the 401 corridor minus the Toronto chaos in the middle. It’s long and boring but relatively easy.

AC don’t even brand the eastern triangle as Rapidair any longer, nor can they really justify doing so. YYZ-YOW is actually dropping this summer from 12x to 10x. Even YUL-YYZ isn’t hourly all day on weekdays anymore. The former pre-pandemic when it still was Rapidair was 18x on weekdays and the latter was up to 20x and both routes had a daily widebody on them. Just goes to show how much of the day tripper traffic has been permanently lost to Zoom and Teams.
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  #624  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2024, 12:35 AM
jc_yyc_ca jc_yyc_ca is offline
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My bad, I didn't articulate very well. I should have said, growth compared to 2019. The big 4 airports have all increased with the next 4 after that are still below 2019 numbers. YOW is 1 million below, and YEG is 615K below 2019, and a million below 2018 numbers. Most airports are up over last year, but up from an already low number so it's an easy bar to pass. 2019 numbers are a better comparison. Until they pass 2019 numbers it's going to be interesting to watch where things go.

Quote:
Originally Posted by thenoflyzone View Post
???

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...in_Canada#2023

Pretty much every single airport in the country had positive growth in 2023, and unless one or two ULCC's fold shop, I don't see that changing in 2024. Travel demand is still as strong as ever.

In terms of Y.O.Y growth percentage, YXU, YOW, YWG and YXE lead the country in 2023. Now sure, part of that is because the major carriers were concentrating on beefing up their main hubs in 2021/2022, leaving the smaller airports behind, but we are clearly seeing those airports recuperate their lost traffic. It should be a similar story in 2024, unless, like I said, Flair or Lynx call it quits. And even if they do, it will only affect a handful airports in any meaningful way. The rest will be fine.

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Originally Posted by Chinook Arch View Post
Still waiting for YYZ numbers, but here's the rest of Canada's main airports.
..............2024...........2019
YYZ..... ?................ 50.5M
YVR..... 24.94M....... 26.38M
YUL..... 21.15M....... 20.3M
YYC..... 18.49M....... 17.95M
YEG..... 7.5M.......... 8.15M
YOW.... 4.1M.......... 5.1M
YWG.... 4.1M.......... 4.48M
YHZ..... 3.58M........ 4.19M
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  #625  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2024, 2:36 PM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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Originally Posted by jc_yyc_ca View Post
My bad, I didn't articulate very well. I should have said, growth compared to 2019. The big 4 airports have all increased with the next 4 after that are still below 2019 numbers. YOW is 1 million below, and YEG is 615K below 2019, and a million below 2018 numbers. Most airports are up over last year, but up from an already low number so it's an easy bar to pass. 2019 numbers are a better comparison. Until they pass 2019 numbers it's going to be interesting to watch where things go.
YOW really only began to recover last February with the start of PD's expansion and the late June start of AF. YOW being slowest of the big 8 to recover is also a reflection pre-pandemic of just how much traffic the airport used to handle to/from Toronto. Pre-pandemic YOW-YTO weekday frequencies were:
-AC to YYZ 18x - max gauge 763
-WS to YYZ 12x
-PD to YTZ 16x Sept-May & 14x in summer
Total: 44-46x/weekday

In 2024:
-AC to YYZ 12x, dropping to 10x for the summer - max gauge 321
-WS to YYZ 1x, 0x for the summer schedule
-PD to YYZ 4x
-PD to YTZ 8x
-AC to YTZ 4x
Total: 26x-29x pretty much daily as there's nothing to cut anymore on weekends.

That's an enormous reduction in seats and frequency. Pre-pandemic YTO-YOW O&D was easily over a million pax/year. In 2024, it'll probably be more like 1/2 million.
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  #626  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2024, 6:10 PM
whatnext whatnext is offline
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Originally Posted by zahav View Post
....But still, the trend is obvious, AC is more than willing to sacrifice frequency for larger planes. On YUL-YYZ this summer, frequency looks to be around 15-16 daily. Equipment is also variable depending on the day; some days have no widebody service, sometimes twice, and most commonly, once daily. It is the onward portion of MXP-YUL, since they axed the non-stop MXP-YYZ, and is an A330 aircraft. But it is formally a continuation of MXP-YYZ, and note a route in its own right. AC used to also have a thru flight # GVA-YUL-YYZ that was on a widebody as well, but that appears to be gone, and replaced with the standard connecting between one international flight segment and a unique domestic flight. Same as they did with SYD-YVR-YYZ.
Makes sense during a shortage of pilots to have large a/c flying less frequently rather than smaller planes with high frequency. My last flight YYZ-YVR was was on an AC 777-300ER and literally every one of its 450 seats was full (I bet the PD flight didn't fill their vastly few seats). I thanked my lucky stars I was in PE and not in the back where a score of people had to take their carry-on back to the gate to check.

According this article AC is looking at moderate flight growth for 2024. I bolded an interesting rumour.

Air Canada taps the brakes on ramp-up, even as Canadians still want to fly
Christopher Reynolds, The Canadian Press

Air Canada is proceeding more cautiously on growth plans this year, despite sturdy profits and strong bookings last quarter as its post-pandemic recovery continues.

The country's biggest airline aims to boost flight capacity by six per cent to eight per cent, below analysts' expectations of a 10 per cent increase.

"This is reasonable for us as we continue to see industry supply chain pressures and other constraining factors," said head of network planning Mark Galardo on a conference call with analysts Friday. Those pressures may include production delays at Boeing Co. and Airbus SE, with at least one Air Canada plane delivery this year pushed back to 2025.

The carrier's brake tapping means it won't exceed 2019 capacity levels until 2025, five years after the COVID-19 pandemic first hammered the travel industry.

The slowdown also suggests the "rapid expansion in leisure routes may be scaling back," said RBC Capital Markets analyst Walter Spracklin. And it stands "in contrast" to plans by other large airlines in North America, according to Savanthi Syth of Raymond James.

Air Canada shares fell $1.26 or nearly seven per cent Friday to close at $18.00 on the Toronto Stock Exchange....

...Competition is another area to watch, as Porter Airlines, Flair Airlines and Lynx Air strive to carry out ambitious expansions.

"However, press reports this week have suggested that Flair and Lynx — both of which we suspect are financially struggling — may be in merger talks," said National Bank analyst Cameron Doerksen.,,(bold mine)


https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/air-cana...lier-1.2035802
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  #627  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2024, 6:30 PM
Djeffery Djeffery is online now
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Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
I bolded an interesting rumour.
You gotta get up pretty early to beat this crowd lol, that was posted a few times on the 14th already,
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  #628  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2024, 6:32 PM
whatnext whatnext is offline
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You gotta get up pretty early to beat this crowd lol, that was posted a few times on the 14th already,
Must have missed that due to Valentine's Day.
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  #629  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2024, 7:25 PM
casper casper is offline
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Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
Must have missed that due to Valentine's Day.
Cupid was busy at work having Flair and Lynx fall in love. What exactly you get when apply a certain degree of flair and style to a lynx is yet to be determined.

I do hope they evolve into a proper airline (the offers connections). Against my better judgment I am planning to fly Flair for the first time in four years.
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  #630  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2024, 8:31 PM
thenoflyzone thenoflyzone is offline
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Originally Posted by jc_yyc_ca View Post
My bad, I didn't articulate very well. I should have said, growth compared to 2019. The big 4 airports have all increased with the next 4 after that are still below 2019 numbers.
Except, that's not true either.

YVR is still below 2019, and YYZ will be lower than 2019 as well, once they publish their Q4 numbers. YYZ was only at 33.8 million in the first 9 months of 2023. They would need a 42% increase compard to 2022 numbers in order to reach 50.5 million, and they're only averaging a 32% increase through the first 9 months of 2023. So it aint gonna happen !

In the top 10 airports, only YUL, YYC and YLW (barely by ~600 passengers) beat out their 2019 numbers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by casper View Post

I do hope they evolve into a proper airline (the offers connections). Against my better judgment I am planning to fly Flair for the first time in four years.
That's not what a ULCC does though, is it.

Flair acquiring Lynx is only about 1 thing. Getting 9 planes and their pilots. Nothing more, nothing less.
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  #631  
Old Posted Feb 20, 2024, 12:26 AM
jc_yyc_ca jc_yyc_ca is offline
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ooops. My eyesight must be going on me. I thought YVR was up from 2019, but it's down. If if what you're saying about YYZ turns out, then Canada's airports still need some more catching up to get past 2019, except for YUL and YYC who had nice gains.

Quote:
Originally Posted by thenoflyzone View Post
Except, that's not true either.

YVR is still below 2019, and YYZ will be lower than 2019 as well, once they publish their Q4 numbers. YYZ was only at 33.8 million in the first 9 months of 2023. They would need a 42% increase compard to 2022 numbers in order to reach 50.5 million, and they're only averaging a 32% increase through the first 9 months of 2023. So it aint gonna happen !

In the top 10 airports, only YUL, YYC and YLW (barely by ~600 passengers) beat out their 2019 numbers.



That's not what a ULCC does though, is it.

Flair acquiring Lynx is only about 1 thing. Getting 9 planes and their pilots. Nothing more, nothing less.
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  #632  
Old Posted Feb 21, 2024, 1:43 PM
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Air Canada Expands Regional Services with Luxury Motorcoach Land-Air Connections for Customers

https://www.newswire.ca/news-release...890645971.html

* Multimodal pilot project with The Landline Company to link Hamilton and Region of Waterloo airports to Toronto Pearson
* Premium, Canadian built motorcoaches are fully accessible and offer spacious leather seats with power outlets, complementary WiFi
* Seamless connectivity with full itinerary protection, baggage transfers, Aeroplan point earning

MONTREAL, Feb. 21, 2024 /CNW/ - Air Canada today announced that it has partnered with The Landline Company to connect airports in Hamilton and Waterloo Region with the airline's Toronto Pearson global hub. Customers will be able to book a single itinerary combining a luxury motorcoach service with Air Canada flights for a seamless, convenient and more sustainable journey. Now available for booking, the multimodal service will begin operating as a pilot project from John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport and the Region of Waterloo International Airport in May 2024, with the potential to make it available elsewhere in Canada in the future.



How it works
Landline will operate six, non-stop round trips daily to Toronto Pearson from each of the Hamilton and Region of Waterloo airports in southern Ontario. Air Canada customers beginning their journey at Hamilton or Region of Waterloo airports will check in as normal for their flight and obtain boarding passes for all segments of their trip. At a designated departure point at the local airport, they will board a luxury, Air Canada-branded motorcoach and their checked baggage will be loaded. Upon arrival at Toronto Pearson, customers will proceed directly through security screening, while checked bags will be automatically transferred to the onward connecting flight.
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  #633  
Old Posted Feb 21, 2024, 1:49 PM
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^^^
Would be awesome if they offered the same service from Montreal to Sherborooke.
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  #634  
Old Posted Feb 21, 2024, 3:06 PM
Djeffery Djeffery is online now
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Originally Posted by Alexcaban View Post
^^^
Would be awesome if they offered the same service from Montreal to Sherborooke.
I'm sure they will be using this as a test to see how well it's received and roll it out in other areas
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  #635  
Old Posted Feb 21, 2024, 3:32 PM
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There is an Air France motorcoach always parked on a street near my condo on the Plateau in Aylmer. I think the driver must live there and brings it home after work.
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  #636  
Old Posted Feb 21, 2024, 4:54 PM
Ozabald Ozabald is offline
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Originally Posted by SteelTown View Post
Air Canada Expands Regional Services with Luxury Motorcoach Land-Air Connections for Customers

https://www.newswire.ca/news-release...890645971.html

* Multimodal pilot project with The Landline Company to link Hamilton and Region of Waterloo airports to Toronto Pearson
* Premium, Canadian built motorcoaches are fully accessible and offer spacious leather seats with power outlets, complementary WiFi
* Seamless connectivity with full itinerary protection, baggage transfers, Aeroplan point earning

MONTREAL, Feb. 21, 2024 /CNW/ - Air Canada today announced that it has partnered with The Landline Company to connect airports in Hamilton and Waterloo Region with the airline's Toronto Pearson global hub. Customers will be able to book a single itinerary combining a luxury motorcoach service with Air Canada flights for a seamless, convenient and more sustainable journey. Now available for booking, the multimodal service will begin operating as a pilot project from John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport and the Region of Waterloo International Airport in May 2024, with the potential to make it available elsewhere in Canada in the future.



How it works
Landline will operate six, non-stop round trips daily to Toronto Pearson from each of the Hamilton and Region of Waterloo airports in southern Ontario. Air Canada customers beginning their journey at Hamilton or Region of Waterloo airports will check in as normal for their flight and obtain boarding passes for all segments of their trip. At a designated departure point at the local airport, they will board a luxury, Air Canada-branded motorcoach and their checked baggage will be loaded. Upon arrival at Toronto Pearson, customers will proceed directly through security screening, while checked bags will be automatically transferred to the onward connecting flight.
American uses coaches for connections for some of its routes out of Philadelphia.

See Jeb Brooks connecting in Philadelphia for his "flight" to Atlantic City.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GR4h6d4sa8
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  #637  
Old Posted Feb 21, 2024, 6:40 PM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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Originally Posted by Alexcaban View Post
^^^
Would be awesome if they offered the same service from Montreal to Sherborooke.
Would imagine they'd do Trois-Rivieres-YUL too. Kingston to YOW...if this first experiment works out.

Quote:
Originally Posted by harls View Post
There is an Air France motorcoach always parked on a street near my condo on the Plateau in Aylmer. I think the driver must live there and brings it home after work.
Now that AF is going daily year-round, hopefully that's one bus that disappears once the current contract ends.

I don't see much benefit for these AC buses departing from YHM and YKF without them being sterile, with airside pickup clearance at the regional airports to bypass YYZ CATSA. AA does this to PHL out of nearby airports - including ABE that they actually serve with aircraft too. Places like Niagara Falls and Barrie would seem to make more sense. Without that key element, why would someone schlep from downtown Hamilton out to YHM when they can hop on a GO bus and get to YYZ for a few bucks, just for the sake of "saving" 10 minutes at the bag drop?

I suppose the misconnect protections would be the main attraction.
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  #638  
Old Posted Feb 21, 2024, 9:58 PM
thenoflyzone thenoflyzone is offline
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Originally Posted by Dominion301 View Post

I don't see much benefit for these AC buses departing from YHM and YKF without them being sterile
If they price it correctly, there should be several benefits. Misconnect protections aside,

- cheaper than a cab ride to YYZ, or taking your own car + parking fees.
- no need to worry about checked luggage once check-in is complete at starting point.
- accrual of aeroplan points on the bus legs.

This is a smart move by AC. Places like YRQ or YSC should definitely be paying a close attention to this.
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  #639  
Old Posted Feb 22, 2024, 2:24 AM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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Originally Posted by thenoflyzone View Post
If they price it correctly, there should be several benefits. Misconnect protections aside,

- cheaper than a cab ride to YYZ, or taking your own car + parking fees.
- no need to worry about checked luggage once check-in is complete at starting point.
- accrual of aeroplan points on the bus legs.

This is a smart move by AC. Places like YRQ or YSC should definitely be paying a close attention to this.
That's evidently AC's line of thinking. The $6 million question will be whether it results in any additional revenue to AC vs people from K-W and Hamilton who would still be flying AC out of YYZ regardless of the bus service.
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  #640  
Old Posted Feb 22, 2024, 3:00 PM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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After YXE-YYZ last week, next up for PD's E95s is YYZ-YQB.

Here's the schedule:

PD 198 YQB-YYZ 1125-1300
PD 197 YYZ-YQB 0900-1029

That's a boost for PD's presence at YQB considering they're down to a single daily to YTZ. However the 0900 YYZ departure won't connect with much...currently just the YVR redeye.

I imagine the press release will be out later today like it was for YXE.

EDIT: It just came out: https://www.newswire.ca/news-release...844408978.html

Turns out it's seasonal to start:

Quote:
Initially planned as a seasonal addition to Porter's schedule, the new route is set to run until October 26.
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