CHICAGO | Economic & Business Development

[the urban politician]

That's terrible, and I think Asian and Hispanic growth will not come anywhere near enough to compensate for it. And white populations are stagnant, with lower/blue collar/middle class simply swapping out for high income yet smaller households.

So 2020 will continue to show population loss. We might as well get over it--Chicago isn't going to grow any time soon, but that doesn't prevent it from being a nicer and healthier city.

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

That's terrible, and I think Asian and Hispanic growth will not come anywhere near enough to compensate for it. And white populations are stagnant, with lower/blue collar/middle class simply swapping out for high income yet smaller households.

So 2020 will continue to show population loss. We might as well get over it--Chicago isn't going to grow any time soon, but that doesn't prevent it from being a nicer and healthier city.

According to the ACS, white, hispanic and asian populations are growing in the City. Just not enough to offset the continued loss of african americans.

[bnk]

Not any new info, just visualized and only uses 2016 data.




Hispanics Pass Blacks As Chicago's 2nd Largest Racial, Ethnic Group: Census


By Tanveer Ali | September 14, 2017 2:21pm | Updated on September 15, 2017 11:38am



CHICAGO — Hispanics are officially the second-largest ethnic or racial group in Chicago, based on Census data released Thursday.
Hispanics formed 29.7 percent of Chicago's population in 2016, based on Census estimates. The population climbed 17,751 over the previous year to 803,476.
Meanwhile the black population dropped by more than 40,000 in one year. There are now 793,852 black Chicagoans, about 29.3 percent of the population.

Since 2000, Chicago's black population has dropped by more than 250,000 people.

The largest racial group in Chicago is white residents. There are an estimated 882,354 white Chicagoans, about 32.6 percent of the population.
Alden Loury, director of research and evaluation for the nonprofit Metropolitan Planning Council, noted the numbers may fluctuate in coming years due to how the Census estimates work but also notes that Chicago's population has been trending this way.

"We knew it was coming. I didn't think it would happen this fast," Loury said.

Loury said the Chicago area's recent Hispanic growth has been naturally driven by births and not by immigration

...

[the urban politician]

Something seems off there with that blip in the white population from 08-09, then back down again in '10.

[bnk]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Something seems off there with that blip in the white population from 08-09, then back down again in '10.

Census noise

but that also was the spectacular market recession depression / bankruptcy's and real estate colapse of 07-09. [1]

You are right it is odd that the population increased at the bottom of the barrel in late 09. I would ignore that blip.

[1] Worst since the Great Depression.

Its the trend lines that need to be looked at. The 2017 black collapse is almost logarithmic if these reports are true and I have no reason to not believe them for no other news topics would refute the numbers that have been in the publications for some time. Its almost as fast of a reverse loss as the black exodus to the North back in the day. And it appears to be happening without any particular,nor obvious to the media at least, official coordination. I'm not ready to declare the reverse of the Great Migration but it seems to be picking up steam in the reverse direction.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_...rican_American

Nicholas Lemann wrote that the Great Migration:

was one of the largest and most rapid mass internal movements in history—perhaps the greatest not caused by the immediate threat of execution or starvation. In sheer numbers it outranks the migration of any other ethnic group—Italians or Irish or Jews or Poles—to [the United States]. For blacks, the migration meant leaving what had always been their economic and social base in America, and finding a new one.

That said blacks with a college degree are moving into the area like whites, Asians, Latinos.... Its just that lower end blacks and or families are leaving en mass. I don't make this up the numbers are out there and it is quite a phenomenon however one wants to look at it.

The question is... is it temporary or is it going to be a semi decade upon decade trend that once it happens it may be hard to stop and or reverse. I can't think of another city in the country that is moving in one direction faster than Chicago is in one particular ethnicity. Its like a modern experiment that we might not know the consequences until 15-20 some odd years later.


see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Great_Migration

Not that I drive though the hoods but one wonders if those turning out the lights will leave the city in respect and standing or leave via the Detroit way.. Stripping the core of the bones of the buildings or those that remain are allowed to do so.

Gentrification needs to advance faster than the normal cycle IMO due to this unusual movement of groups of the same ethic identity.



I must repeat myself again because I have never seen this in my lifetime but.

Has this ever happened before in the USA where a economical similar racial group gets up and leaves en mas?



We will know more of the details when the 2020 census reports are complete and have full free access.

[the urban politician]

^ Yep, it was called white flight

[bnk]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

^ Yep, it was called white flight

I know about white flight, and the history behind it, [ and that was mainly to the burbs] but has there been any other reverse black flight like this sans Detroit in the USA in modern times or ever?

Tons of data states they are moving south. And there are also a lot of blacks moving to the suburbs too btw not to ignore that fact too.

[marothisu]

The ACS is an estimate, so the numbers aren't going to be exact. They are pretty good estimates though - but sometimes they can be off. I'm sure the black population is going down but it's possible that 2015-2016 might not be as big as that. Who knows, but nonetheless it's still not good. I think the city needs to focus more energy on these communities really. It's vital to the city's success.

We'll see what happens but I wouldn't get on the "OMG we are absolutely going to lose population 2020 compared to 2010." Hopefully not, but we'll see.

[LouisVanDerWright]

I mean there are lots of employment options right now and crime is way up particularly in these communities the last year or two. Is it possible that people are just taking advantage of the good labor market to flee en masse to greener pastures? Maybe 42k is exaggerated, but people, particularly poor people, tend to move much more when there is a super strong labor market like the last year or two.

[marothisu]

^ Actually you aren't really right in saying "Crime is up". Obviously homicides are, though compared to 2016 YTD they're down now. Most other crimes though are still below what they were just a small handful of years ago. Most of the crime that's reported on the news is obviously homicides and while it's easy to fall into this "crime is so up compared to 5 years ago!" BS right now, it's just not true. At all. Homicides are and that's unfortunate, but homicides also make up an extremely low percentage of all crimes in any city and even a small percentage of violent crimes. You know that 2014 was like the lowest year for crime overall in Chicago since 1965, right? Some crimes other than homicides are above that, yes - so it's a rise, but pretty much everything is below what it was even 4 years ago. Here is an actual look at the numbers for more than just homicide. Every year is through 9/28:

Total Crime
2017: 197,302
2016: 200,455
2015: 196,790
2014: 206,838
2013: 233,530
2012: 253,826
2011: 263,821
2010: 280,563

Assault
2017: 14,622
2016: 14,232
2015: 12,985
2014: 12,843
2013: 13,926
2012: 15,234
2011: 15,675
2010: 16,661


Robbery
2017: 8465
2016: 8466
2015: 6728
2014: 6981
2013: 8702
2012: 9710
2011: 9989
2010: 10,235

Battery
2017: 37,158
2016: 38,328
2015: 37,292
2014: 37,587
2013: 41,645
2012: 45,479
2011: 46,166
2010: 50,772

Burglary
2017: 9547
2016: 10,161
2015: 9182
2014: 10,611
2013: 13,239
2012: 16,724
2011: 19,398
2010: 19,113

Theft
2017: 46,792
2016: 45,135
2015: 42,072
2014: 46,134
2013: 53,559
2012: 56,444
2011: 55,658
2010: 57,743

Narcotics
2017: 8440
2016: 10,928
2015: 18,471
2014: 22,438
2013: 26,199
2012: 27,804
2011: 29,337
2010: 33,404

[the urban politician]

^ The only explanation I can think of as to how all other crimes are trending down while murders are so high is targeted gang activity.

Gang targeted killings are holding steady while all other crimes, which are not necessarily being committed by gang members, is going down. At least that's my theory...

[IrishIllini]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

^ The only explanation I can think of as to how all other crimes are trending down while murders are so high is targeted gang activity.

Gang targeted killings are holding steady while all other crimes, which are not necessarily being committed by gang members, is going down. At least that's my theory...

It's interesting that all other numbers have dropped moderately or considerably, yet murders are still fairly high. I believe they are down from last year, but I'd welcome a further drop. You'd think that there being fewer crimes in general would translate to gang-on-gang homicides. The narcotics number is most interesting. There are way fewer arrests for narcotics but gang-on-gang violence is still high. Why? Are we just not arresting people for selling crack or heroin?

[marothisu]

Actually the reason for the increase in homicides has to do with the FBI and CPD jointly breaking up one of the gangs at high up levels. This basically fractured the gang into tons of small gangs that started fighting one another essentially. Previously, the younger people had those above them who would tell them to not do certain things. That was removed and kind of started an every man for himself thing.

If you do analysis on homicides by neighborhood composing something like 2015 to 2016, you'll see that only a handful of areas of town were responsible for most of the massive increase. There were a lot of areas that had no change or actually decreased. I can do that analysis again, but it's almost comical how people think the increase is in every single part of the city. More hilarious to me though are those who get duped into thinking all crime is up when it's actually lower in pretty much every facet even compared to years like 2013 and before.

[F1 Tommy]

Originally Posted by marothisu

Actually the reason for the increase in homicides has to do with the FBI and CPD jointly breaking up one of the gangs at high up levels. This basically fractured the gang into tons of small gangs that started fighting one another essentially. Previously, the younger people had those above them who would tell them to not do certain things. That was removed and kind of started an every man for himself thing.

Interesting but I am surprised the Feds didn't see that coming as this has happened before in similar situations.

[emathias]

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

...
The narcotics number is most interesting. There are way fewer arrests for narcotics but gang-on-gang violence is still high. Why? Are we just not arresting people for selling crack or heroin?

Essentially, yes, for some cases. In 2015, Cook County changed the way it handles cases involving personal quantities of drugs. With a small amount of marijuana, they won't even confiscate it (a friend of mine experienced that first hand).

Even for harder drugs, if it's a small quantity you'll just be diverted to a drug treatment program. Successful completion of the program drops the charges. I'm sure that in some cases, even for harder drugs, cops don't even bother arresting people. Whereas ten years ago they might arrest a homeless guy with a couple rocks of crack, today they may just confiscate it (or even just let the homeless guy keep it if they know him and know he doesn't cause trouble).

Originally Posted by F1 Tommy

Interesting but I am surprised the Feds didn't see that coming as this has happened before in similar situations.

Of course they know what will happen, but just settling a detente with drug lords is probably a difficult thing for a lot of law enforcement to swallow so they feel compelled to act even knowing it will increase gang wars for a while. We all know the war on drugs needs to be dramatically changed so that it's not the gangs that distribute the drugs. And my hope is that I live to see that day - but that hasn't happened yet.

[Randomguy34]

Facebook status: growing fast in Chicago

By Ryan Ori

Social media giant Facebook is making a big expansion in Chicago, where it’s adding enough office space to accommodate hundreds of new employees.

Facebook has added three floors in a Wacker Drive office tower, growing its Chicago office to more than 100,000 square feet, according to people familiar with the deal. That’s enough room for more than 500 workers. Menlo Park, Calif.-based Facebook currently leases one floor, or a little more than 25,000 square feet, in the 37-story tower.

Facebook moved into a partial floor last year and has since expanded into the entire 28th floor. In the new lease, Facebook has leased all of floors 20, 21 and 22, according to sources.

Company representatives did not immediately respond to requests for comment, and it is unclear how many employees the technology company currently has in Chicago. In February, the website Chicago Inno reported that Facebook had 70 marketing, marketing science, recruiting and creative employees, with plans to add 30 workers on its partner management team — which helps companies use Facebook’s services — in 2017.

Facebook’s expansion comes as city leaders try to convince another one of the world’s most recognizable technology companies, Amazon, to put its planned second headquarters — and up to 50,000 jobs — in Chicago.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/busine...009-story.html

[aaron38]

Soda tax just got repealed and looks to be veto proof. Good riddens.

17 Cook Co commissioners
1 (Butler) absent
So far, all voted to repeal.
Sims began hearing undecided; just cast 13th vote to nix #SodaTax

https://twitter.com/AmandaVinicky/st...45329126535168

When will governments stop with the sin taxes, especially where easily avoided? They never produce the revenues promised. And now the whining from Preckwinkle will begin. But there was going to be problems anyway. Tell a government that $200 million more is coming and it's spent on day one. Then at years end they collect less than half that (because people are very good at crossing county lines) and the budget is in the red.

[MayorOfChicago]

Originally Posted by aaron38

Soda tax just got repealed and looks to be veto proof. Good riddens.


https://twitter.com/AmandaVinicky/st...45329126535168

When will governments stop with the sin taxes, especially where easily avoided? They never produce the revenues promised. And now the whining from Preckwinkle will begin. But there was going to be problems anyway. Tell a government that $200 million more is coming and it's spent on day one. Then at years end they collect less than half that (because people are very good at crossing county lines) and the budget is in the red.

I have friends who are lawyers and accountants/consultants and have done a lot of work dealing with the county for years. They said even though they're hard core democrats and liberal with spending and strong support systems, the amount of waste and high spending, the high salaries and insane contracts that the county signs for projects and union dealings is just insane. We pay the highest sales tax of everyone and they get all the property taxes, etc - the county could use to do some MAJOR belt tightening.

I kept hearing prekwinkle talking about how much they've cut, but then when you read about what they're handing out in contracts and everything else - there's a looong way to go.

i'm all for cut cut cut right now.

[left of center]

Originally Posted by MayorOfChicago

I have friends who are lawyers and accountants/consultants and have done a lot of work dealing with the county for years. They said even though they're hard core democrats and liberal with spending and strong support systems, the amount of waste and high spending, the high salaries and insane contracts that the county signs for projects and union dealings is just insane. We pay the highest sales tax of everyone and they get all the property taxes, etc - the county could use to do some MAJOR belt tightening.

I kept hearing prekwinkle talking about how much they've cut, but then when you read about what they're handing out in contracts and everything else - there's a looong way to go.

i'm all for cut cut cut right now.

The county and the state both. Definitely need some more fiscal discipline.

Having someone from the outside come in to reorganize the budget with full control of the county's fiscal situation would be great, ala what Detroit had to do with its bankruptcy several years back.

Full disclosure: I am not a Republican, just a tax fatigued Chicagoan

[aaron38]

My wife just informed me that we have to move out of this state because we're stuck in a small house with high property taxes, that I can't afford as is. Everything she wants to buy has double taxes, or I have to spend 2 hours more a day in the car.
So I guess we're moving, and this state's corrupt politicians will have driven away another productive high earner, in favor of those who don't work, and never will.

I love this state, my home for 37 years. But it's ridiculous that my salary doesn't cover the cost of living here.