Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

1. We're a ways out from the next election and I doubt any decisions are final. Allain and Turner both lack something- vested MLA pensions, which they are likely to get even with a PC minority being reelected. So I think they most likely stick around. Allain is probably burned out from municipal reform right now.

2. I am loathe to get too personally critical with politicians since I am not extremely anonymous, but Cardy is crazier than a shithouse rat! He thinks he's some saviour of 'the West,' openly calls himself a neoliberal, freaks out on Twitter about foreign policy constantly, and he must have a Postmedia hotline. They call him for a take every time Higgs sneezes. You think they'd call Gauvin or Holt or Coon or someone else relevant. Does he even run again? Where? For who? His options are Holt's home Fredericton South-Silverwood seat (I 100% think she's moving back there) or the anodyne Jeff Carr's Hanwell-New Maryland seat. Maybe he tries his luck 'running from the centre' against Atwin. Who knows?

3. I don't think Norton or Killen (or the at-large guys) would forfeit their council seats for a longshot against Williamson. The new SJ-SC voted 47-28 CPC-Liberal twice in a row, and that's with West Saint John voting more Liberal than normal for Wayne Long. Williamson is as secure as an East Coast Tory can hope to be, and he's DEFINITELY going for another term. I presume Liberals punt on all CPC incumbents except for Stewart, who they'll struggle to dislodge too. Unless they want a 5-5 delegation they HAVE to hold SJ-KV, and that's not even getting into Fredericton-Oromocto. It isn't out of reach for the opposition either. Conservatives have been within 4-5 points the last two cycles.

1. Yes Williamson is safe as all can be in his riding. I know John personally and he is well liked here. Maybe if the Liberals ran a candidate who actually lives in the riding unlike 2021 they might do better but unlikely.
2. Provincially Fundy the Isles keeps pushing more and more into Saint John which if Anderson-Mason is to retire which I think is definitely possible could lead to a interesting race both in the PC primary and general.

[adamuptownsj]

If anyone's interested, I have mapped current MLAs to new ridings based on their residence/business/professional life.

Greens:
Kent North Kevin Arseneau
Tantramar Megan Mitton
Fredericton-Lincoln David Coon

Liberals:
Restigouche West Gilles LePage
Restigouche East Guy Arseneault
Belle-Baie-Belledune Marco LeBlanc
Bathurst René Legacy 
Hautes-Terres-Nepisiguit Susan Holt*
Caraquet Isabelle Thériault
Shippagan-Les-Îles Eric Mallet
Tracadie Keith Chiasson
Beausoleil-Grand-Bouctouche-Kent Benoît Bourque
Shediac Bay-Dieppe Robert Gauvin
Shediac-Cap-Acadie Jacques LeBlanc
Dieppe-Memramcook Richard Losier
Moncton Centre Rob McKee
Grand Falls-Saint-Quentin Chuck Chiasson
Edmundston-Madawaska Centre Jean-Claude D'Amours
Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston Francine Landry

PCs:
Moncton East Daniel Allain
Miramichi East Michelle Conroy
Miramichi West Mike Dawson
Moncton Northwest Ernie Steeves
Riverview Bruce Fitch
Albert-Riverview Mike Holland
Arcadia-Butternut Valley-Maple Hills Ross Wetmore
Hampton-Fundy-St. Martins Gary Crossman
Quispamsis Blaine Higgs
Rothesay Ted Flemming
Saint John East Glen Savoie
Saint John Portland-Simonds Trevor Holder
Saint John West-Lancaster Dorothy Shepherd
Kings Centre Bill Oliver
Fundy-The Isles-Saint John Lorneville Andrea Anderson-Mason
Saint Croix Kathy Bockus
Fredericton-Grand Lake Kris Austin
Fredericton-York Ryan Cullins
Carleton-York Richard Ames
Woodstock-Hartland Bill Hogan
Carleton-Victoria Margaret Johnson
Moncton South Greg Turner
Saint John Harbour Arlene Dunn
Miramichi Bay-Neguac Réjean Savoie
Fredericton North Jill Green
Sussex-Three Rivers Tammy Scott-Wallace/Sherry Wilson**
Oromocto-Sunbury Mary Wilson/Jeff Carr***

Party of One:
Hanwell-New Maryland Dominic Cardy

New seats:
Champdoré-Irishtown NEW SEAT
Fredericton South-Silverwood NEW SEAT

*Holt could run in the open Fredericton South-Silverwood which was a tight PC win vs the Greens in 2020... but that was with Coon on the ballot in Fredericton South. Maybe she stays up north.

**truly double-bunked. One has to retire or they have a nomination fight.

***not deeply double bunked. IDK if Carr even runs again, but he could always run down the road in Hanwell-New Maryland vs Cardy in a very winnable seat.

It's worth noting Allain in Moncton East is now in a riding the Liberals won by 7 points. Interestingly, this is also the case for his Liberal neighbour Rob McKee in Moncton Centre, whose seat is now PC-won by about 9 points. Moncton South and Moncton Northwest remain more PC.

Other than that, it's pretty much status quo across the rest of the province. The next election, if basically '2020 but vaguely better for Liberals' happens we only have a handful of competitive seats. Assuming Liberals pick up Allain's seat and the new Champdoré-Irishtown, and PC's flip back Cardy's seat, we're looking at 24 more or less secure PC seats, 17 Liberal seats, 2 Green, and the following seriously competitive.

Fredericton South-Silverwood NEW SEAT
Fredericton-Lincoln David Coon
Saint John Harbour Arlene Dunn
Fredericton North Jill Green
Miramichi Bay-Neguac Réjean Savoie
Moncton Centre Rob McKee

Green and Savoie are vaguely favoured to win, Coon probably will, and maybe McKee just runs in Moncton East and lets a Tory take his seat? Harbour and the new South Fredericton seat will be highly competitive.

[adamuptownsj]

Possible election call this summer/fall? I wonder if Higgs makes it a confidence vote. He seems like he's got another term in him, which I wouldn't have said half a year ago.

Anderson-Mason might find herself out of caucus, in any case. Unlike Cardy, I think there's a chance she runs with the Liberals next election. The Liberals have rapidly atrophied in the southwest, and an incumbent is as good as they can likely get. From a blue tory perspective, which Higgs is somewhat, trading Cardy and Anderson-Mason for Austin, Conroy, most of their voters, and two Miramichi pickups is a very good deal.

Just holding the rural seats (and taking back Anderson-Mason's) gets them to 17. Add in Riverview, Rothesay, Quispamsis, which should also be PC holds, and that's 20, before winning a single Saint John (4), Fredericton (3), or Moncton (4) seat. It's not a tough slog for a second majority even with a popular vote loss.

[MonctonRad]

Higgs still makes me nervous. He has difficulty controlling his baser instincts. I would prefer him to retire. He has nothing to prove, and he is getting pretty old.

On the other hand, the new Liberal leader (Holt) also makes me nervous. She strikes me as an overly enthusiastic social progressive and a profligate spender. She would not be good for the province.

Oh, what is a true progressive conservative to do..................

I would probaly still vote PC, but rather more reluctantly than the last time.

[adamuptownsj]

I tried to keep my analysis non-partisan because my line of work requires interacting with all these goblins, regardless of flavour. But Holt does not strike me as capable of winning back English NB. So far her public impression is not substantive. And she needs to try to appeal to the median, unless NB's English voters start voting like CBC columnists.

She hasn't even picked a riding yet. Like I say above, I doubt she stays in Bathurst. Does she try to take on Coon in Fredericton-Lincoln, or try for the likely open Fredericton South-Silverwood? Both were narrow PC wins in 2020 by redistributed results... vs the Greens. Liberals got 22% and 14% respectively.

The map is a big problem for her. High-turnout fanatically loyal Liberal voters are packed into very few ridings, some of which may be vulnerable to Green candidates. PCs can occasionally do well in Madawaska/Grand Falls as they're not as Acadian in culture as the North Shore or the Strait. Probably not this cycle though.

20 rural English or otherwise PC ridings are almost totally out of reach barring incumbent scandal or a wave.

All three Greens will probably hang on.

So a Liberal majority starts with their North Shore fortress (8 seats), the Dieppe/Shediac/Kent wall (5 seats), Madawaska/Grand Falls (3), and Moncton East (flips massively to Liberals from PCs, while Moncton Centre does the opposite). That's 17. The next 8 are painful and would all have to come from the 9 other 'urban' seats of varying competitiveness in SJ/Moncton/Fredericton. Even a Green supported minority would need Liberal flips in 5 of the 9 seats. Where would those be?

Moncton South, Centre, and Northwest were substantial PC wins. Moncton Centre, McKee's seat now, is 39 PC-30-Liberal-21 Green. It's the only competitive one.

Fredericton S-S and Lincoln are discussed above, but Fredericton North was 42 PC-18 Liberal-31 Green in 2020. So IDK if this is a place where Libs will see gains of any kind. Maybe worth trying to win Green voters back. I will charitably call the two not occupied by Coon as competitive for Liberals. But that's still only 3 of the 5 needed seats...

Or does her path run through Saint John? East is likely off the board. No one in any party can count on Harbour, but it could deliver a seat. That leaves us with two: Lancaster and Portland-Simonds. Both hinge on personel: a Shepherd retirement could make it very hard for Liberals in Lancaster, because they want to face her, while who knows what a Holder retirement would mean in the North End? He's been an institution since last millennium.

[adamuptownsj]

Cabinet shuffle tomorrow. I assume Conroy and Wilson are in. The real question is, does he throw any rebels out of the party? Or does he just kick them to the backbenches pending what I presume is a couple retirements?

He can burn 4 of the rebels and keep a majority. Anderson-Mason, Shepherd, and Holder, in that order, seem the most likely.

Wetmore's beefs seem exclusive to the school district consolidation issue, so probably not him.

[drewber]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Cabinet shuffle tomorrow. I assume Conroy and Wilson are in. The real question is, does he throw any rebels out of the party? Or does he just kick them to the backbenches pending what I presume is a couple retirements?

He can burn 4 of the rebels and keep a majority. Anderson-Mason, Shepherd, and Holder, in that order, seem the most likely.

Wetmore's beefs seem exclusive to the school district consolidation issue, so probably not him.

Higgs is gone come fall. That's the earliest they can boot him. He's going down with the ship at this point. I'm sure he'll blow up whatever he can in the meantime.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by drewber

Higgs is gone come fall. That's the earliest they can boot him. He's going down with the ship at this point. I'm sure he'll blow up whatever he can in the meantime.

Higgs has to go. He has become toxic. I could only ever just tolerate him. He was never really likeable, and only passingly capable. He is much too much of an accountant and bean counter and is quite tone deaf as far as issues important to the public are concerned.

I appreciate the surpluses and all that, but he needs to be more open to strategic spending, and he has to stop toying around with CoR-light policies. This just pisses off the moderates in the party, and turns off the swing voters.

Higgs has to go. If he stays on, he will be handing the Liberals a default majority next time around, and the provincial ship of state will begin to sink under profligate spending, pork-barrelling (which the Liberals are uncommonly good at) and questionable policies which will inflame the delicate linguistic balance in the province.

Higgs has to go.

[lirette]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Higgs has to go. He has become toxic. I could only ever just tolerate him. He was never really likeable, and only passingly capable. He is much too much of an accountant and bean counter and is quite tone deaf as far as issues important to the public are concerned.

I appreciate the surpluses and all that, but he needs to be more open to strategic spending, and he has to stop toying around with CoR-light policies. This just pisses off the moderates in the party, and turns off the swing voters.

Higgs has to go. If he stays on, he will be handing the Liberals a default majority next time around, and the provincial ship of state will begin to sink under profligate spending, pork-barrelling (which the Liberals are uncommonly good at) and questionable policies which will inflame the delicate linguistic balance in the province.

Higgs has to go.

Higgs has been governing through anger and rage farming for quite sometime. Its actually exhausting watching him speak. You'd think someone forced him to do the job rather than one he chose to run for. Where's the message of hope & positivity for people anymore? Where's the problem solving and listening to input from your expert stakeholders? Hes one of these managers who enters a meeting and everyone leaves feeling like theyve done something wrong.

We cannot allow a one man rule where dissidents are squashed. I understand there is a social conservative base that the party relies on and has been getting buttered up with the latest policy 713 changes, but who else is out there that can hear all of these PC party members speak out about his managerial style and think this is good for the province?

[josh_cat_eyes]

What would it look like if they boot him? Would they just appoint a new premier?

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by josh_cat_eyes

What would it look like if they boot him? Would they just appoint a new premier?

If Higgs quit, someone would be chosen by caucus as interim Premier. They would serve until a party leadership convention is held, then the winner would become the new Premier.

[Mud]

It's a shame because if not for the past year or two I think he would have had a decent legacy, though with some lucky circumstances mixed in. If he had spent less time picking fights and more time grooming a fresh new leader the PC's would be laughing to another majority right now. They may still win but it will be in spite of him being leader.

[adamuptownsj]

I don't think his position has deteriorated as much as others. Shuffling now indicates he's got most of the caucus onboard. Perhaps he just serves a full term out. Otherwise why shuffle before a fall election?

If one happens, he can lose 20% of his 2020 voters and pick up a third of 2020 PA voters, that's 34%. More than enough to survive. A lot of the 'rebels' have been sidelined or cowed and will retire. That helps in some places (Shepherd) and hurts in others (Holder).

RA presidents are an incredibly poor barometer of how party rank-and-file feel, let alone the general public. They run little fiefdoms of ham dinners and golf fundraisers. They are not well known figures or even committed party apparatchiks half the time.

His successor is an open question, but Kris Austin would be almost certain to run.

I didn't vote PC in 2020 but I really think the 'PCs in disarray' is coming entirely from Postmedia and CBC. They have a penchant for finding the reddest tories in the room to interview... so bear that in mind.

[NB_ExistsToo]

Originally Posted by Mud

It's a shame because if not for the past year or two I think he would have had a decent legacy, though with some lucky circumstances mixed in. If he had spent less time picking fights and more time grooming a fresh new leader the PC's would be laughing to another majority right now. They may still win but it will be in spite of him being leader.

So realistically, his legacy points are from his time as minority government, where he was forced to cooperate with other parties.

[Mud]

Originally Posted by NB_ExistsToo

So realistically, his legacy points are from his time as minority government, where he was forced to cooperate with other parties.

Well, mostly with one other party and you'll excuse me if I assume cooperating with the PA didn't blow them too far off course..

[adamuptownsj]

New Narrative Research polls out. https://narrativeresearch.ca/news/

PEI: King retains Stalinesque support and the opposition parties tread water.

NS: Houston increases his popularity hugely. Approval north of 50%. Tied with the Liberals and NDP combined at 47% (39% in the HRM). Liberals continue freefall. NDP mired in mid/low 20s.

NL: Furey and his government remain popular. Liberals lead only 40-37 though, losing 10% since May while the PCs and NDP each gain 6%. The PCs losing a deeply unpopular leader for a generic placeholder seems to be part of the cause, but I don't follow NL closely.

NB: Liberals lead PCs 38-36... gaining 4 and 2% respectively since May (Greens and NDP declining with PA a nonfactor). Holt more popular than Higgs 28-23.

Stop me if you heard the next part before: Liberals leading 44-24-24 up north would actually be a decline for them from 2020. Not enough to flip anything to the PCs but it should secure his three Miramichi seats, and could put something in reach for the Greens with a strong candidate perhaps.

South breaks 48% for Higgs (Holt 28, Greens a pitiful 13) and the 'Moncton Area' which I presume included Kent, Shediac, etc. goes 48 Liberal, 31 PC, and only 9 Green. That's actually not too bad for the PCs if there's 5 monolithically anti PC seats included. Certainly enough to keep their rural/exurban seats, Riverview, Moncton South, and likely Northwest too.

Small sample sizes, but it's all we get!

I'm increasingly convinced Higgs will call an election once all current Riding Associations are dissolved and the new ones (for the new boundaries) are established. He's probably waiting to see how many of his intraparty opponents retire before he forces the 'worst offenders' out of caucus. With these numbers presumably close to reality, he'd shed a seat in Moncton and MAYBE one each in Fredericton and Saint John. 23 seats basically locked down, 20 almost certainly out of reach.

The election will be settled in the 3 Fredericton urban seats, Moncton NW and Centre, and SJ Harbour. Liberals would have to almost run the table in them just to get a coalition with the Greens.

Tough electoral math. Holt would be well advised to run in one of the two South Fredericton seats- probably not Coon's- as a show of commitment to southern NB. You cannot form a government off the North Shore and Beausejour, there simply aren't enough seats. No one's yet put together an Acadian+southern urban coalition. And she couldn't win off downtowns either. She would need both working class and upper middle class Anglo urban seats alike to flip.

Higgs' situation isn't rosy, but his path to 25 in a 'neutral year' is easier. Rurals and towns get him to 20- that's before winning a single seat mostly within the big city city limits. Scraping 5 wins out of 4 seats in SJ, 3 in Fredericton, and 4 in Moncton is not nearly as steep of a challenge as what Holt faces.

[MonctonRad]

I agree. Things aren't rosy for Higgs (and deservedly so), but given that the vast majority of Liberal support is amongst the Acadian population, he could easily win the election despite losing the popular vote. The Liberal vote is essentially highly inefficient.

There is a huge chasm between the voting intentions of the anglophone and francophone portions of the province and this is a major challenge for the Liberals.

The Liberals will have to find some way to bring sanity to the bilingualism debate. If they insist on continued irrational dogmatism (insistence on bilingual police and paramedics on Grand Manan and Campobello islands for example), they will be in the political wilderness for quite some time, and Acadians will be shut out of the halls of power (which will be very unfortunate). There should be reason and accommodation in the bilingualism debate and this has been lost. Things are becoming very tribal.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I agree. Things aren't rosy for Higgs (and deservedly so), but given that the vast majority of Liberal support is amongst the Acadian population, he could easily win the election despite losing the popular vote. The Liberal vote is essentially highly inefficient.

There is a huge chasm between the voting intentions of the anglophone and francophone portions of the province and this is a major challenge for the Liberals.

The Liberals will have to find some way to bring sanity to the bilingualism debate. If they insist on continued irrational dogmatism (insistence on bilingual police and paramedics on Grand Manan and Campobello islands for example), they will be in the political wilderness for quite some time, and Acadians will be shut out of the halls of power (which will be very unfortunate). There should be reason and accommodation in the bilingualism debate and this has been lost. Things are becoming very tribal.

Acadia-first Liberals created the tribalism, essentially. There's no reason for rural Anglos to throw their support behind a party chiefly concerned with Chaleur Bay ethnic patronage. Holt's interest in rural Anglo NB seems to be restricted to renaming things, which is... not popular there (to put it mildly). They're going to be in the wilderness until they can compete in the wilderness, lol.

Wayne Long deciding to escape the sinking federal Liberal ship and wait for Holt to fail is looking prescient. However he has to convince an increasingly mono-ethnic party to choose someone from the least French corner of the province... after coming up short with Vickers and Holt, two other Anglos from outside Acadia. He's also likely to the 'right' of NB Liberal movers and shakers. He would probably inspire better-quality candidates in PC-held Anglo urban ridings, but that's a third order effect. A perceived Liberal drift to the center and a more-appealing-to-Anglos platform could open up opportunity for the Greens up north... or perhaps the return of the Acadian Party, lol.

Nightmare Liberal scenario is choosing a North Shore, down-the-line progressive with poor English to follow Holt. Such a candidate would ghettoize the party and send them into a downward spiral of Acadian-ness purity tests, and probably even piss off the less-moribund French areas like Dieppe and Shediac.

PCs on the other hand have simple challenges. Keep Higgs or boot him? This could result in Premier Kris Austin, which would be a funny monkey's paw scenario for red Tories. Assuming he stays, Higgs is FAR more unpopular online than in real life, and there's a nontrivial amount of voters who disapprove of him 'from the right' and will vote PC anyway.

Greens... IDK. They'll live or die on candidate quality. Coon is getting long in the tooth. Arseneau is a loose cannon. Mitton is likely secure in her rotten borough. But they need to show growth and it's not going to come from the Anglo realm. And no I'm not counting a hypothetical 1-term rental of SJ Harbour as an inroad. No one should count on holding it or winning it post-Weir.

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

I'm a young fairly Liberal person yet if the election was held tomorrow I would most likely vote PC. To me as Adam has said the Liberals seem to focused on Acadia and other French speaking parts of the province and paying little to no attention to the rest of NB outside of maybe Saint John Harbour and Fredericton as it is believed Holt will run in Fredericton. I live in the riding of Fundy the Isles Saint John West so a riding that voted straight liberal from the 70s until 2018 and I have seen the Liberals pay little attention to us outside of 1 visit in Eastern Charlotte and one in Grand Manan. I know Holt cannot be everywhere but it would be nice to have a party pay some attention to us.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by CharlotteCountyLogan

I'm a young fairly Liberal person yet if the election was held tomorrow I would most likely vote PC. To me as Adam has said the Liberals seem to focused on Acadia and other French speaking parts of the province and paying little to no attention to the rest of NB outside of maybe Saint John Harbour and Fredericton as it is believed Holt will run in Fredericton. I live in the riding of Fundy the Isles Saint John West so a riding that voted straight liberal from the 70s until 2018 and I have seen the Liberals pay little attention to us outside of 1 visit in Eastern Charlotte and one in Grand Manan. I know Holt cannot be everywhere but it would be nice to have a party pay some attention to us.

Where did you hear she was planning on running in Fredericton? It's not a sure bet she'd win there.

Fredericton South-Silverwood is technically an open, new riding, with Cardy retiring. 40 PC-39 Green-14 Liberal-5 PA in 2020; 39 Green-25 Liberal-22 PC-12 PA in 2018.

Fredericton Lincoln was 37 PC-34 Green-22 Liberal-6 PA in 2020; 32 Green-26 Liberal-23 PC-16 PA in 2018. This is technically Coon's seat, but he would probably do better in the other, which AFAIK Holt lives in.

Maybe she challenges Jill Green in Fredericton North, which the Liberals actually BARELY won in 2018. 2020, 42 PC-31 Green-18 Liberal-8 PA. 2018, 32 Liberal-28 PC-21 PA-17 Green.

There's a lot of upside for the PCs left in the PA vote. So none of these are really safe bets for a party leader. Holt would be foolish to run against Coon, and I doubt he'd defer to her in either southern riding.

Liberals having two successive leaders fail to take a competitive seat in a row would be super funny.

Re: Charlotte County, Rick Doucet didn't ever strike me as a particularly liberal Liberal. He was good at delivering local results. The party has firmly reoriented itself away from 'blue Grits' or vaguely populist types like Abel LeBlanc, Gerry Lowe, etc. since.