YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[Johnny Aussie]

Could be just threatening talk but clearly AC (and WS too) will be preparing for the possible launch of 2 LCCs next year. This may include rougeing some domestic flying.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on...-low-cost-carrier-rouge/article19946386/

Meanwhile.... Canada Jetlines seems to just keep moving along and has come up with a short list of potential new routes launching from YVR. Even summer seasonal routes to Red Deer, Lethbridge and Grande Prairie are being considered among the usual suspects of course. I have often thought as those secondary cities continue to grow quite quickly, just a matter of time before YVR would be connected to them... Although I think an A319 is just a tad large... There seems to be some pretty pie in the sky routes mentioned. Also talking seven 144-seat A319s and nine 178-seat A320s "in its first phase of development." Ok.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on...rn-canada-flight-routes/article19901459/

Both of these LCCs/ULCCs are chasing start-up capital in the same pool at the same time. That can't be easy.

[Johnny Aussie]

An early update for next summer already.

YVR will be gaining 2 additional flights per week for a total of 18 weekly flights (not including the Enerjet charters flown on their behalf).

AMS goes from 2 to 3 and FRA goes from 3 to 4. The additional flights will be via YYC.

For the last couple of years the weekly YYC-AMS and YYC-FRA were standalone. However, next summer these will now originate and terminate in YVR again. This could suggest they are having trouble filling these out of YYC or it is just to do with the cycling of the aircraft.

Breakdown of the 18 weekly: LGW 5, FRA 4 (1 via YYC), AMS 3 (1 via YYC), CDG 3 (1 via YYC), MAN 2 and GLA 1.

Confirmed TS is dropping both YEG-LGW and YOW-LGW.

Also: Virgin Atlantic maintaining 5 weekly but with A330-300s next year replacing the A340s. 26 additional seats per flight.

[jlousa]

Any word if we'll see Transat bring back YVR to Madrid next year? As far as I know they only had it the one year but the numbers appeared like they had very high loads.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by jlousa

Any word if we'll see Transat bring back YVR to Madrid next year? As far as I know they only had it the one year but the numbers appeared like they had very high loads.

Nada. MAD, BCN and FCO didn't last long. And I think ATH was scrapped before it even started. Ah well! Can't win them all.

Not sure about loads but doesn't seem to matter with Air Transat anyway!

[casper]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Nada. MAD, BCN and FCO didn't last long. And I think ATH was scrapped before it even started. Ah well! Can't win them all.

Not sure about loads but doesn't seem to matter with Air Transat anyway!

What would be interesting is to see if AT will try the Japan market at some point. Maybe in a few years, if thy are still around.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by casper

What would be interesting is to see if AT will try the Japan market at some point. Maybe in a few years, if thy are still around.

In 2011 a group called Maple Fun Tours were looking at leasing suitable equipment to charter their own tours from Japan to YVR. KIX and NGO among others were on the agenda. This hit a snag and I'm really not sure what their current plans are but it has been very quiet lately.

Air Transat, to my knowledge, was one of the potential contenders.

Here's a small news article about this....

http://www.globeadvisor.com/servlet/ArticleNews/story/gam/20110129/RBTICKERAATL_1

Skymark has also tipped YVR as a potential new destination, but that was before they scrapped their plans for the A380. Not that they were planning any A380 flights to YVR... Obviously their A330 program would be much better suited to YVR.

http://zipanguflyer.blogspot.com.au/2014/04/skymarks-first-airbus-a380-completes.html

[Johnny Aussie]

Article in today's Australia Business Traveller.

Suggests YVR being seriously considered for the next Air NZ 787-900 destination after PER, PVG and NRT. Daily flights in the works.

Currently NZ flies 5 weekly 777-200. This will increase to 6 weekly in the winter scheds.

http://www.ausbt.com.au/air-new-zealand-maps-out-boeing-787-dreamliner-plans

[Johnny Aussie]

Air Canada rouge adding the second daily YVR-LAS one month earlier than planned.

The second daily A319 will now commence on 23 Sept instead of 26 Oct.

http://airlineroute.net/2014/08/11/zx-yvrlas-sep14/

[craneSpotter]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Air Canada rouge adding the second daily YVR-LAS one month earlier than planned.

The second daily A319 will now commence on 23 Sept instead of 26 Oct.

http://airlineroute.net/2014/08/11/zx-yvrlas-sep14/

Would this be due to stronger than expected bookings or aircraft availability?

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by craneSpotter

Would this be due to stronger than expected bookings or aircraft availability?

I would guess bookings were looking good and since there is an a/c available... why not start earlier. Good plan as October is a great month to visit LAS.

This added daily flight pretty much replaces the lost capacity when Philippine Airlines dropped the YVR-LAS tag a couple of years ago. So it should push YVR-LAS numbers back up again.
Compared to last winter... this is a decent 28% increase in the YVR-LAS market compared to last winter.

[Denscity]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Article in today's Australia Business Traveller.

Suggests YVR being seriously considered for the next Air NZ 787-900 destination after PER, PVG and NRT. Daily flights in the works.

Currently NZ flies 5 weekly 777-200. This will increase to 6 weekly in the winter scheds.

http://www.ausbt.com.au/air-new-zealand-maps-out-boeing-787-dreamliner-plans

More international awesomeness for YVR.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Denscity

More international awesomeness for YVR.

Yup. Maybe when Craig Richmond referred to the "Year of the Dreamliner" he wasn't kidding... although NZ wouldn't start until at least 2015 anyway.

I reckon YVR will get All Nippon 787s as their 763s get replaced.
Also, Air Canada to ICN in addition to NRT and PVG for sure next year.
And.... Xiamen.... ??? I think that is maybe a bit less likely now. But who knows!

[twoNeurons]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

In 2011 a group called Maple Fun Tours were looking at leasing suitable equipment to charter their own tours from Japan to YVR. KIX and NGO among others were on the agenda. This hit a snag and I'm really not sure what their current plans are but it has been very quiet lately.

Air Transat, to my knowledge, was one of the potential contenders.

Here's a small news article about this....

http://www.globeadvisor.com/servlet/ArticleNews/story/gam/20110129/RBTICKERAATL_1

Skymark has also tipped YVR as a potential new destination, but that was before they scrapped their plans for the A380. Not that they were planning any A380 flights to YVR... Obviously their A330 program would be much better suited to YVR.

http://zipanguflyer.blogspot.com.au/2014/04/skymarks-first-airbus-a380-completes.html

I could perhaps see a charter or a LCC operate a direct flight out of Kansai Int'l in Osaka. However, any Canadian-based charter would get killed on flights to Narita or Haneda.

Peach (ANA's LCC) has a strong base out of KIX.
SkyMark is unaffiliated and is the main tenant in Kobe (a domestic airport)
Jetstar (JAL) is mostly Tokyo but again, primarily domestic.

[twoNeurons]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Yup. Maybe when Craig Richmond referred to the "Year of the Dreamliner" he wasn't kidding... although NZ wouldn't start until at least 2015 anyway.

I reckon YVR will get All Nippon 787s as their 763s get replaced.
Also, Air Canada to ICN in addition to NRT and PVG for sure next year.
And.... Xiamen.... ??? I think that is maybe a bit less likely now. But who knows!

I'm a little surprised that they started with a 763, given AC and JAL have started using 787s on the route. ANA has the favorable airport (Haneda) in Tokyo for most business travellers, so perhaps they feel HND is enough of a carrot to woo business traffic their way already so the route can wait for the 787.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by twoNeurons

I'm a little surprised that they started with a 763, given AC and JAL have started using 787s on the route. ANA has the favorable airport (Haneda) in Tokyo for most business travellers, so perhaps they feel HND is enough of a carrot to woo business traffic their way already so the route can wait for the 787.

ANA YVR-HND ops are breakeven at best. The primary reason ANA is running the route is to keep JAL out of the HND slot allocation. ANA won the slot allocation by almost 2:1 margin, now they have to use the rights or lose them to JAL.

JAL has been so beat down on YVR ops they could leave in the next 18 months. This is the ultimate goal of ANA, to replace JAL as the primary international airline for Japan.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by twoNeurons

I'm a little surprised that they started with a 763, given AC and JAL have started using 787s on the route. ANA has the favorable airport (Haneda) in Tokyo for most business travellers, so perhaps they feel HND is enough of a carrot to woo business traffic their way already so the route can wait for the 787.

It made sense they used the 763 for startup as they also have to test and prove the market. Don't forget YVR is still a relatively small market in the scheme of things. The natural progression will be for their 763s to get replaced by 788s as they are phased out.
Like a lot of new routes an airline's expectation isn't necessarily to be profitable for even a couple of years. You will notice ANA is really starting to ramp up codeshares with Air Canada for domestic routes out of YVR. These types of changes will help develop the route and make it a profitable venture eventually. Also, Air Canada "right-sized" the YVR-NRT route to a 763 due to NH's entry. But not surprising YVR-NRT will be one of the first routes to see the 788. We think there is competition here? The ANA / JAL bloodbath is notorious. JAL really protested ANA's slot allotments awarded out of HND to the point of legal threats. But that's that.

As for JAL when they almost collapsed a few years ago I was pleasantly surprised that they even held on to YVR when I looked at all the other bases they closed. It is certainly common knowledge that Japan has really struggled with recovery but there is hope on their horizon. And the 788 is just the perfect fit for this route right now. I think YVR will continue to see JAL tails for years to come.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by twoNeurons

I could perhaps see a charter or a LCC operate a direct flight out of Kansai Int'l in Osaka. However, any Canadian-based charter would get killed on flights to Narita or Haneda.

Peach (ANA's LCC) has a strong base out of KIX.
SkyMark is unaffiliated and is the main tenant in Kobe (a domestic airport)
Jetstar (JAL) is mostly Tokyo but again, primarily domestic.

Yup, hence why a venture like Maple Fun weren't even thinking of touching Tokyo. As the Japan market hopefully continues to recover there may be some bright spots on the horizon. There will be a secondary market from Japan... just needs to be approached and marketed properly.

Even MEL just recommenced direct services to NRT, albeit on Jetstar, after years of absence.

[Johnny Aussie]

Effective 26 October, Air China is putting the 77W on PEK-YVR-PEK.

This will also introduce first class on this route..... Confidence in getting premium traffic and/or perhaps a response to China Southern?

Configuration of their 777-300ERs is F8 C42 Y261 TTL311

At the same time frequency will reduce from 11 weekly 332s to daily only.

Overall capacity reduces by 430 seats per week.

http://airlineroute.net/2014/08/13/ca-yvr-w14/

Be curious to know what they do next summer :-)

Eventually I see AC going daily 788 in the winter and daily 77W in the summer along with the daily 77W Air China plus most likely a few additional weekly frequencies to supplement.

[Johnny Aussie]

Latest change has CI to TPE doing its usual seasonal frequency reductions over the winter scheds.

Daily through 26 Oct
6 weekly from 26 Oct - 26 Jan
5 weekly from 26 Jan - 27 Mar

Also, no 744s in the cards this winter. However, frequencies last winter dropped to 5 for the whole winter period from late October.

This route will most likely become a 359 route once CI takes delivery of them starting in 2016... I would expect YVR to come online in 2017.

http://airlineroute.net/2014/08/13/ci-w14update2/

Overall capacity to TPE for the winter will still be about the same as Eva Air has added an additional weekly 744 year-round to 4 from 3 in previous years. When CI reduces to 5 weekly over the Feb/Mar period, BR will have more capacity than CI for the first time.

[officedweller]

Pic by me today: