I'm sorry but I don't see how anybody can think that any of these sites are the best place for a casino. Here’s five reasons a casino at the Thompson Center or in River North would be better than any of these locations.
1. The annual adjusted gross revenue of a casino at the Thompson Center or in River North would be at least $250 million greater than the annual gross revenue of a casino at One Central, McCormick Place or the 78 site. Assuming a 40% tax rate on AGR, this means an additional $100 million per year for the state and city. These numbers come from a report prepared by Union Gaming Analytics for the Illinois Gaming Board. See below for more.
2. More income means more jobs. More jobs is a good thing.
3. Architecturally, the Thompson Center is far more impressive than any of the renderings I’ve seen in this thread. It's one of the best buildings built in Chicago in the past 40 years and I think it would make a great and very unique casino.
4. A casino at the Thompson Center or in River North would contribute to a lively street scene. Restaurants, stores and other entertainment venues would all benefit – including the high end stores on Michigan Ave. The model for this is London’s West End where casinos are one option among many in a premier entertainment district.
Compare this to a casino at One Central, McCormick Place or the 78. These locations would attract customers who drive to the casino, park in an attached garage and never set foot in the surrounding neighborhood.
5. The hospitality industry in Chicago supports a Thompson Center or River North location.
The following is from the
Union Gaming Report:
Incremental AGR from more tourist-centric location
In order to achieve optimal adjusted gross receipts (AGR) and tax receipts, the casino should be located in a tourist-centric location that also enjoys, if possible, decent access to the local population. Such a facility could likely generate more than $350 million in incremental AGR relative to the highest performing of the five sites at approximately $806 million in AGR.
The incremental AGR that could be generated at a casino in a more tourist-centric location would be driven by two primary categories of customer. The first is represented by persons staying at a hotel in close proximity to the casino and who, as part of their trip to Chicago, would spend some amount of time in the casino. This cohort could contribute more than $150 million in AGR, although on a net basis likely closer to $100 million after adjusting for a lower AGR contribution from area residents who might find it harder to reach a casino in a more tourist-centric location. The second category is represented by persons actually staying at the casino hotel itself, which might have well more than the baseline of 500 rooms. The addition of incremental hotel rooms would allow a casino to host more higher value gaming customers, which in turn would drive higher AGR. While the amount of hotel-driven AGR could vary widely based on the number and quality of rooms available, we estimate there could be an incremental $250+ million in AGR as a result. Combining these two categories, a casino in a more tourist-centric location could yield $350+ million in incremental AGR relative to the highest grossing of the five sites.
The impact of tourism (why a casino needs to be located in already tourist-friendly areas if tourist visitors are desired)
Only a centrally located casino that is in close proximity to high-quality hotels and other notable tourist attractions will be able to meaningfully penetrate the robust tourism trends the City of Chicago already enjoys. Put another way, tourists generally will not patronize a casino in an area that is inconvenient relative to where they are staying or perceived as unsafe, nor will tourists be eager to book a room at a casino’s hotel if there are no other easily accessed attractions nearby. For these reasons and more we would not expect a material number of tourists to patronize any of the five sites analyzed herein. Instead, these sites will primarily draw patrons from persons living within close proximity.
In addition, it is important to note the proliferation of casinos on a nationwide basis. As such, it is increasingly difficult to attract out-of-market visitors to a casino as it is no longer a unique proposition. Most customers will simply patronize a casino in their home market unless a casino is of very high quality, in close proximity to other attractions, and is in an attractive location. Unfortunately, none of the five sites analyzed herein fully meet the last two considerations of being in close proximity to other attractions and having an attractive location.
The five sites that Union Gaming looked at were:
1. Harborside Illinois Port Authority Golf Course (111th St. and Bishop Ford Freeway)
2. Former Michael Reese Hospital (31st St. and Cottage Grove Ave.)
3. Pershing Road and State St. (former Robert Taylor Homes)
4. Roosevelt Rd. and Kostner Ave.
5. Former U.S. Steel Plant (80th St. and Lake Shore Dr.)
Of these five, the highest performing site was Michael Reese where they estimated a casino would have $806 million of revenue per year. Then they said that a casino in a more tourist centric location (which I’m assuming is River North) could yield an additional $350+ million per year.
Finally, I assumed that McCormick Place and the 78 sites are slightly better than Michael Reese and increased the gross revenue from these sites to $900 million per year. Which reduces the gross revenue benefit of a River North casino to $250 million per year.
There's a lot of money at stake here and any due diligence review would have the city go back to Union Gaming and ask them for their thoughts on these five new sites.