Federal Government & Politics II

[casper]

Originally Posted by theman23

Harper's tenure was marked by missed opportunities but he pretty much left the country in the same or slightly better position than when he came to power. Trudeau's legacy will be a country that's worse off in just about every aspect. I don't think history will be very kind to him.

Lets come back in 10 years and see how history views this period.

The Harper period was not one of strong or transformational economic growth or social change. I am currently expecting the same from Poilievre.

The Trudeau period is marked by a number of transformational progressive changes. They lay the ground work for what has the potential to reposition Canada as a greener country, with a different relationship with indigenous communities, expanded safety net and a more socially tolerant country. Still to be seen if they stick and have the desired outcome. I don't think we will know for certain for a decade out.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by manny_santos

This will be particularly interesting in BC's Lower Mainland, where gas prices were as high as $2.05/L over the weekend. As of today, the price gap with Bellingham across the border is about 26% ($4.20/gal USD, or $1.51/L CAD at the station I usually go to when I'm there), so an increase in that price gap could lead to more gas runs across the border.

That's surprisingly low. The price gap between Sherbrooke and New Hampshire was ~45% when I filled up there yesterday. ($1.72 CAD/L vs $3.30 US/gal)

(Brought a full canister back to put into my gf's Honda, as well -- why not )

[theman23]

Originally Posted by casper

The Trudeau period is marked by a number of transformational progressive changes. They lay the ground work for what has the potential to reposition Canada as a greener country, with a different relationship with indigenous communities, expanded safety net and a more socially tolerant country. Still to be seen if they stick and have the desired outcome. I don't think we will know for certain for a decade out.

This is all meaningless gobbledygook. Absolutely none of it is true.

[casper]

Originally Posted by lio45

That's surprisingly low. The price gap between Sherbrooke and New Hampshire was ~45% when I filled up there yesterday. ($1.72 CAD/L vs $3.30 US/gal)

(Brought a full canister back to put into my gf's Honda, as well -- why not )

There are two refineries in Washington state and one in Vancouver (Burnaby) that supply the region. Those three are the main suppliers to Washington State, Oregon and BC. There is also some product refined in Edmonton that is pushed down the trans-mountain pipeline to Burnaby. It very much a single combined market. The refineries also have stricter rules over the product formulation that is sold in the three regions.

Washington state also has similar "values" and "priorities" to BC. They have some of the highest fuel taxes in the US. There is a new "cap-and-invest" program in that state that refineries need to buy carbon credits through that are reflected in the pricing. That program is only partially implemented, there are more increases yet to come.

[manny_santos]

Originally Posted by casper

There are two refineries in Washington state and one in Vancouver (Burnaby) that supply the region. Those three are the main suppliers to Washington State, Oregon and BC. There is also some product refined in Edmonton that is pushed down the trans-mountain pipeline to Burnaby. It very much a single combined market. The refineries also have stricter rules over the product formulation that is sold in the three regions.

Washington state also has similar "values" and "priorities" to BC. They have some of the highest fuel taxes in the US. There is a new "cap-and-invest" program in that state that refineries need to buy carbon credits through that are reflected in the pricing. That program is only partially implemented, there are more increases yet to come.

The gap between Metro Vancouver and Whatcom County is also somewhat smaller now than it was just two years ago. Gas in Washington is somewhat more expensive now; I remember when the border restrictions ended it was still routinely below $4/gal in Bellingham while we were already pushing $2/L here.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by theman23

This is all meaningless gobbledygook. Absolutely none of it is true.

Would you find the amended version below to be more true?

"The Trudeau period is marked by a number of transformational progressive changes: government debt reaching absolutely insane new levels, relative wages declining (causing quality of life to go down for pretty much the first time in several generations), GDP per capita going down, homelessness skyrocketing with no end in sight, food bank use skyrocketing with no end in sight, number of children who are starving actually doubled in a few years, etc."

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by casper

There are two refineries in Washington state and one in Vancouver (Burnaby) that supply the region. Those three are the main suppliers to Washington State, Oregon and BC. There is also some product refined in Edmonton that is pushed down the trans-mountain pipeline to Burnaby. It very much a single combined market. The refineries also have stricter rules over the product formulation that is sold in the three regions.

Washington state also has similar "values" and "priorities" to BC. They have some of the highest fuel taxes in the US. There is a new "cap-and-invest" program in that state that refineries need to buy carbon credits through that are reflected in the pricing. That program is only partially implemented, there are more increases yet to come.

Burnaby refines very little. The lower mainland is at the mercy of the Cherry Point refinery in WA for gas price fluctuations (the classic "maintenance" and "conversion to summer/winter" excuses for jacking prices).

Hopefully TMX2 will allow for Edmonton refined gas to make it to Vancouver.

I'm almost 6 years into EV-only and I don't miss all the gasoline bullshit one iota.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by lio45

Correction: we used to think Harper was a disaster, but then JT has shown up and recalibrated that scale, and now Harper looks like a great PM in retrospect (and so do Martin, Chrétien and Mulroney!)

Even Kim Campbell can be considered a great PM in comparison to JT's disastrous tenure.

I can't see younger Canadians ever forgiving Trudeau for selling them out to protect the supercharged real estate wealth of boomer Caspers. When the younger generations write the history books, they will likely be more savage than the critiques today.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by casper

The Trudeau period is marked by a number of transformational progressive changes. They lay the ground work for what has the potential to reposition Canada as a greener country, with a different relationship with indigenous communities, expanded safety net and a more socially tolerant country. Still to be seen if they stick and have the desired outcome. I don't think we will know for certain for a decade out.

Transformational change requires the policy changes to outlast the leader. I think pot is the only thing that fits into that category. Trudeau’s changes were all extremely shallow and most of them came way too late in the mandate to become ingrained. They are mostly short term funding agreements with provinces that the Tories will just let lapse or some sort of credit that CRA delivers that will just be cancelled in the first budget. Immigration is just a number pulled out of the Minister’s ass, so the Tories will just pull a lower one out. Trudeau hardly passed any legislation, so the Tories don’t have to worry about the complex unwinding of legislation. Infrastructure, usually the easiest thing for a leader to leave as a legacy is little improved, and Trudeau’s main infrastructure achievement of expanding an oil pipeline runs counter to the transformation he was supposed to be implementing.

[casper]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Transformational change requires the policy changes to outlast the leader. I think pot is the only thing that fits into that category. Trudeau’s changes were all extremely shallow and most of them came way too late in the mandate to become ingrained. They are mostly short term funding agreements with provinces that the Tories will just let lapse or some sort of credit that CRA delivers that will just be cancelled in the first budget. Immigration is just a number pulled out of the Minister’s ass, so the Tories will just pull a lower one out. Trudeau hardly passed any legislation, so the Tories don’t have to worry about the complex unwinding of legislation. Infrastructure, usually the easiest thing for a leader to leave as a legacy is little improved, and Trudeau’s main infrastructure achievement of expanding an oil pipeline runs counter to the transformation he was supposed to be implementing.

I think the most profound has been the environment. Tighter rules on new projects; protection for oceans; decarbonisation. Investment in attracting EV production to Canada etc. I think it is a given the conservatives are going to try to reverse that. I think there still will be sufficient momentum to keep that going forward.

Social programs are a bit more iffy. The discounted child care, improved support for kids in poverty, pharmacare etc. Given it is all joint federal/provincial, how much of that stays on after the conservatives dismantle those programs at the federal level is a fair question. Some of it will live on perhaps in more progressive provinces. The CPP increase in coverage (helps those in their 20s and 30s) is not something the conservatives are going to easily reverse.

My impression is indigenous communities over the last 10 years have become more assertive in charting their own economic/environmental future. This federal government has quietly chosen not to bush against it. Certainly not to the same degree as previous government would have.

On the international front, new trade deals across the pacific, the new NAFTA deal and the EU deal (if the French don't kill it) would be key accomplishments.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by casper

I think the most profound has been the environment. Tighter rules on new projects; protection for oceans; decarbonisation. Investment in attracting EV production to Canada etc. I think it is a given the conservatives are going to try to reverse that. I think there still will be sufficient momentum to keep that going forward.

Social programs are a bit more iffy. The discounted child care, improved support for kids in poverty, pharmacare etc. Given it is all joint federal/provincial, how much of that stays on after the conservatives dismantle those programs at the federal level is a fair question. Some of it will live on perhaps in more progressive provinces. The CPP increase in coverage (helps those in their 20s and 30s) is not something the conservatives are going to easily reverse.

My impression is indigenous communities over the last 10 years have become more assertive in charting their own economic/environmental future. This federal government has quietly chosen not to bush against it. Certainly not to the same degree as previous government would have.

On the international front, new trade deals across the pacific, the new NAFTA deal and the EU deal (if the French don't kill it) would be key accomplishments.

The environmental stuff is mostly highly divisive and will be mostly reversed by the next government. The manufacturing is based on ongoing subsidies and will disappear as soon as the subsidies dry up. Neither will create a legacy.

Good point that the CPP is not easily reversible.

What have they actually done on the indigenous front that will leave a legacy? The Indian Act is still in place, indigenous people are still wards of the state. Were any significant land claims signed?

CETA was a Harper deal. Freeland got the Belgians to agree to provisional implementation, not sure that is a big Trudeau legacy. New NAFTA was a bilateral deal between Mexico and the U.S. that Canada joined. Not sure that is a legacy.

So 8 years to leave the legacy of pot and an expanded CPP.

[shreddog]

Credit were credit is due:

Things that the LPC can actually take credit for as they weren't on any agenda before Oct 2015 that can't easily be changed by the CPC ...

Gender equality (majority) on the SSC
Reduction of boil water advisories on reserves (let's hope it stays that way)
Changes to CPP
Pot

Unfortunately the other positives aren't entrenched (like acottawa indicates) or attributable exclusively to this gov't.

FYI, according to this site, GDP per capita went from a low of $40504 to a high of $52635 under Harper to $54966 at the end of 2022. Just saying ....

[Hecate]

Originally Posted by shreddog

Credit were credit is due:

Things that the LPC can actually take credit for as they weren't on any agenda before Oct 2015 that can't easily be changed by the CPC ...

Gender equality (majority) on the SSC
Reduction of boil water advisories on reserves (let's hope it stays that way)
Changes to CPP
Pot

Unfortunately the other positives aren't entrenched (like acottawa indicates) or attributable exclusively to this gov't.

FYI, according to this site, GDP per capita went from a low of $40504 to a high of $52635 under Harper to $54966 at the end of 2022. Just saying ....

Doesn’t say much when all the growth in your GDP can be attributed to skyrocketing housing costs.
https://blog.remax.ca/housing-nearly...0%20per%20cent.

[Hecate]

If you honestly think history books are going to be kind to Justin Trudeau, I feel sorry for you. A planned immigration scheme to enrich the elite at the expense of everyone else, isn’t what most people would call good governance. Violating the charter of rights and freedoms and abusing government authority, isn’t good governance. Shutting down inquests into corruption and foreign interference, while shit tons of cash is getting deposited into your family’s foundation from the Chinese communist party, isn't going to be remembered with a whole lot of fondness by future generations. Amazing how many Trudeau supporters are blind to these serious issues. More concerned about the justified anger of the opposition leader than they are with the prime ministers own lack of integrity and character.

[Nashe]

I dunno. People forget things like that and envelopes of cash pushed across restaurant tables pretty quickly.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Hecate

If you honestly think history books are going to be kind to Justin Trudeau, I feel sorry for you. A planned immigration scheme to enrich the elite at the expense of everyone else, isn’t what most people would call good governance. Violating the charter of rights and freedoms and abusing government authority, isn’t good governance. Shutting down inquests into corruption and foreign interference, while shit tons of cash is getting deposited into your family’s foundation from the Chinese communist party, isn't going to be remembered with a whole lot of fondness by future generations. Amazing how many Trudeau supporters are blind to these serious issues. More concerned about the justified anger of the opposition leader than they are with the prime ministers own lack of integrity and character.

History will likely group the convoy protests with the Montreal Vaccine riots of 1887. Make for a good contract. The public health actions of authorities 135 years earlier were draconian and infringement on civil rights. The modern day response was far more constrained.

Yes, China was trying to influence government. Was the interference effective? Did China win support and favours from Canada as a result? Did they win our support of their position on the South China Sea? Was it effective in subverting the deportation to the US of one of its leaders? Were they able to get their 5G communication equipment into Canada? Did they secure continued access to Canadian military facilities? Were they able to takeover Aecon? Were they able to take over mining companies in Canada?

I think it is to early to judge what happened on China. Clearly China did not get what they wanted. That said, I think Canada has been far to friendly with China over both the Harper and Trudeau period.

[Acajack]

I think it's too soon to tell if and what Justin Trudeau will be remembered for. It could be something we don't expect - positive or negative.

One thing that could have been a good legacy item for him was child poverty and the Canada Child Benefit. Though the cost of living surge screwed that indicator up pretty good, so that's really his bad policies messing with one of his good ones.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Even the most hardcore Quebec separatist wants open borders if Quebec were ever to become sovereign. At the very most it would be similar to the UK and the Republic of Ireland where there is no customs and immigration between the two.

Though that's not the usual line from "Canada" (ie the ROC), which hints that there would be some form of hard border, as part of the defensive strategy to dissuade people in Quebec from thinking the split would be largely painless.

Of course this runs against the other strategic priorities Canada-sans-Québec would have post-independence (especially land passage between Ontario and New Brunswick) but hey we're all dabbling in political fiction when it comes to this anyway.

(Ultimately I think you're right about how it would pan out.)

[Black Star]

From what I've seen in the last 8.5 years is that we don't have a PM in Canada. We have an unqualified corrupt angry petulant child making a total mess of everything he touches. It was said he was staring at frozen orange juice one day for 3 hours, because the label said concentrate. This is the level that Canada has sunk to. These times will ALWAYS be known in Canadian history as the du//mb times. God have Mercy on Canada.

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by Black Star

From what I've seen in the last 8.5 years is that we don't have a PM in Canada. We have an unqualified corrupt angry petulant child making a total mess of everything he touches. It was said he was staring at frozen orange juice one day for 3 hours, because the label said concentrate. This is the level that Canada has sunk to. These times will ALWAYS be known in Canadian history as the du//mb times. God have Mercy on Canada.

Were you one of his drama students? A+, sir! Encore!