Federal Government & Politics II

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

One possible scenario that could play out for the PLC is PSPP's meteoric rise which has led to the unexpected revival of PQ's fortunes. The same party that was written off as an old dinosaur just a few years ago for fighting the old federalist-sovereignty battles of yore.

So far there's no indication that PSPP has remade the PQ. He's just updated its public image to make the PQ "cool" again to the electorate.

That's definitely a possibility. It would be weird if my preschool-aged children grow up as teenagers in a Canada where national unity and Quebec sovereignty rears its ugly head again. That sounds like the political backdrop of my teenage years in the 90s. And the circumstances will be the same, too: there will be a period of austerity to nurse Canada back to fiscal health after the drunken spending of a Trudeau ten years before.

[Innsertnamehere]

I'm not sure I really believe that Quebec will pull sovereignty back again. Perhaps they'll try, I just don't really see a return to the 1990's again in that way.

Maybe I'll be wrong

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

I'm not sure I really believe that Quebec will pull sovereignty back again. Perhaps they'll try, I just don't really see a return to the 1990's again in that way.

Maybe I'll be wrong

Money makes a lot of things sting less.

Nationalism and dividing lines thrive when money gets tight and tough choices have to be made.

My enthusiasm for making tough choices now is directly proportional to how much I think I'm going to suffer in the future.

Like I said, Bay Street and Wall Street will show up one day and have their chat with the PM and inform them that they will not refinance government debt cheaply if government doesn't make changes.

Best to think about one's finances before the repo guys are hauling the SUV out of the driveway.

[niwell]

Originally Posted by thewave46

Absent a technological revolution, we enter an era of stagnation. The 20th century was a miracle because we had high levels of technological advancement that benefited a wide swath of society and population increase brought on by that advancement.

Here we are: the early 21st century. Do we have technological advancement on par with wide-scale electrification and the Green Revolution (agriculture) again? Probably not. Are we going to have another explosion of human population from 1.6 billion in 1900 to 6 billion in 1999? Probably not, given what fertility is doing globally.

This is a very good point. From a practical level so many of the systems that drive technological innovation have reached a level of complication that it's very difficult to maintain exponential innovation. It's virtually impossible for a single person to come up with a revolutionary idea/invention at this point - these things require a level of expertise that understanding of an entire system is hard to come by. Which isn't to say that exciting things will cease to happen, just they won't be as singularly important as the any of the examples cited.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

I'm not sure I really believe that Quebec will pull sovereignty back again. Perhaps they'll try, I just don't really see a return to the 1990's again in that way.

Maybe I'll be wrong

Our Quebec friends had better think twice about any future referendum or other blackmail. I am pretty sure English Canada will demand their own referendum to see if we let Quebec stay.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

Our Quebec friends had better think twice about any future referendum or other blackmail. I am pretty sure English Canada will demand their own referendum to see if we let Quebec stay.

Helpful. And such a novel perspective.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Helpful. And such a novel perspective.

The delight of well-thought posts and insights like the one you've quoted is an old-school internet highlight. One far too uncommon these days now that Twitter has siphoned off such wisdom from forums.

Perhaps this poster could put such energy into a Twitter feed to enlighten the masses to their sizzling takes.

[ConundrumNL]

Originally Posted by kool maudit

People want the future to be better than the past, and if there is a faction that can reliably promise that, they'll be granted a big fat mandate and it will feel stable.

If nobody can deliver that, people will absolutely want theatre, even if they wouldn't say it.

Reward your friends and punish your enemies.

In the absence of a rising tide that lifts all boats, people like that sort of thing.

You're right over the short term but it's a cycle. I don't think any of the current players can deliver, all your going to see is more of the same regardless of who's in charge.

Eventually people tire of the theatre and start demanding actual change. IMO, we're currently at the end of cycle that began in the late 70s/early 80s.

[kool maudit]

I still think that if Quebec leaves in our lifetimes, it will be because there is a wider questioning of borders going on within North America.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

Our Quebec friends had better think twice about any future referendum or other blackmail. I am pretty sure English Canada will demand their own referendum to see if we let Quebec stay.

Good! Sovereignty would be a lot easier if everyone agreed. Imagine if Madrid agreed that Catalonia should be a country, or Kiev agreed that Crimea and other Eastern regions rightfully belong to Russia…

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

Our Quebec friends had better think twice about any future referendum or other blackmail. I am pretty sure English Canada will demand their own referendum to see if we let Quebec stay.

I am pretty sure that such a referendum (by English Canada) would resoundingly vote for Quebec to stay. More so, perhaps, than Alberta, which has increasingly been the more problematic of the two provinces, vis a vis the confederation.

[ConundrumNL]

Originally Posted by kool maudit

I still think that if Quebec leaves in our lifetimes, it will be because there is a wider questioning of borders going on within North America.

I wonder if that's a Achilles Heal of physically large countries. Hard to govern centrally, and having to devolve powers to local units means that you eventually end up with conflicting interests.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by lio45

Good! Sovereignty would be a lot easier if everyone agreed. Imagine if Madrid agreed that Catalonia should be a country, or Kiev agreed that Crimea and other Eastern regions rightfully belong to Russia…

It does happen. Russia essentially kicked Central Asia out of the Soviet Union. The leaders at least were hoping to preserve the status quo at least for a longer period. A big difference in the Canadian context is there is no dangerous precedent set in letting Quebec go. Other than Atlantic Canada being isolated no other province is likely to want to leave post split.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by thewave46

A lot of this will be beyond Canada's borders.

Absent a technological revolution, we enter an era of stagnation. The 20th century was a miracle because we had high levels of technological advancement that benefited a wide swath of society and population increase brought on by that advancement.

Here we are: the early 21st century. Do we have technological advancement on par with wide-scale electrification and the Green Revolution (agriculture) again? Probably not.

I'll take that bet. Not for nothing is it being called the fourth industrial revolution. The cleantech wave is just a portion of much wider change.



How much Canada benefits from this remains to be seen. I would bet a paycheque the Conservatives have not even thought about this, let alone designed policies for it. The Liberals have a few buzzwords, but it's never top of mind. Not as much as some new social program that lets them cut a cheque.

And the big problem with 4IR is that it's not going to create nearly as many jobs as it destroys and the jobs it does create are rather inaccessible to the majority of the public. We haven't even begun to grapple with all these issues.

There's a pervasive Canadian belief that we'll bumble through like we always have, with resources backstopping. Nobody ever asks what if we're not that lucky this time.

Honestly wish we had more technically literate people in office who cared about this stuff. But then again, I guess we get the politicians we deserve.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

It does happen. Russia essentially kicked Central Asia out of the Soviet Union.

Russia seems to have changed their mind on this matter.

They certainly want Ukraine back, and, Belorussia and Kazakhstan are essentially client states that could be recovered with clever political manipulation.

Russia would also like to have the Baltics back too, but, NATO membership makes this problematic.

The only other former FSSRs left are high growth Muslim majority republics in central Asia that would eventually upset the white orthodox majority in Russia. No thanks.

The Caucasus is also a burr under their saddle. They would like to have Georgia back at least.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Russia seems to have changed their mind on this matter.

They certainly want Ukraine back, and, Belorussia and Kazakhstan are essentially client states that could be recovered with clever political manipulation.

Russia would also like to have the Baltics back too, but, NATO membership makes this problematic.

The only other former FSSRs left are high growth Muslim majority republics in central Asia that would eventually upset the white orthodox majority in Russia. No thanks.

The Caucasus is also a burr under their saddle. They would like to have Georgia back at least.

It was the Russians who dissolved the USSR arguing that everybody was leeching off them.

They don't want these countries back. What they want is for these countries to be under their thumb and accept Russia's dominance. Integration with the EU is a bigger threat to Russia than NATO ever would be.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by ConundrumNL

People are tired of JT and are willing to give PP a go, but they'll quickly get sick of him as well. I wouldn't be shocked if a current Lib and CPC backbencher will emerge as centrist leaders towards the end of the decade.

I think somebody like Bonnie Crombie would actually do well for the LPC nationally.

[ConundrumNL]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Other than Atlantic Canada being isolated no other province is likely to want to leave post split.

I always wondered what the Federal gameplan would be for this. They'd probably just have to except an exclave.

They could try to negotiate for a narrow land bridge between Ontario and New Brunswick. I think it's a non-starter, the residents of the purposed land bridge wouldn't be to happy about staying in Canada after if the majority voted to leave.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by ConundrumNL

I always wondered what the Federal gameplan would be for this. They'd probably just have to except an exclave.

They could try to negotiate for a narrow land bridge between Ontario and New Brunswick. I think it's a non-starter, the residents of the purposed land bridge wouldn't be to happy about staying in Canada after if the majority voted to leave.

Yeah, I strongly doubt a narrow corridor through Quebec that would remain Canadian would work. You don't even really need that to establish a right of passage for Canadian traffic (road, rail, maybe marine) through Quebec territory. It can be done through a negotiated agreement.

It makes me wonder what the arrangement is between Alaska and the Lower 48, through Canada.

I suppose there is some provision for goods but in terms of people I've never heard there was an exemption there to the stricter Canada-US border controls established in 2001. So basically you need a passport to travel between two parts of the United States.

I don't think Canada-sans-Québec and Québec would want that. If it could be at all avoided.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

Gas tax hike?? Orrrrrr reinstatement of previous gas tax level? Pretty sure the gas tax is dependent on the price of oil? You can answer that right.

Spin spin spin!