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  #41  
Old Posted Feb 4, 2025, 6:04 AM
Edmonton_Ian Edmonton_Ian is offline
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Originally Posted by NewIreland View Post
I'm just curious as to where you're getting your information from? The consensus among the experts (quick search on google scholar) is that oil will remain at 100 dollars plus per barrel until at least 2050. Furthermore, the following countries' thirst for oil is expected to increase dramatically in the next 50 to 100 years due to industrialization and a growing middle/upper class:

Nigeria
Ethiopia
India
Bangladesh
Vietnam
Indonesia
Philippines
Kenya
Egypt
Brazil

Again, I just don't see the demand for fossil fuels decreasing any time in the near future, but I'm interesting in alternative viewpoints.
Two of these will not be huge oil consumers, Ethiopia and Kenya are pro BEV to the point where one implemented an ICE ban already that had to be walked back and the other is launching its own domestic EV maker...Not to mention Vietnam with Vinfast if it ever gets its act together... Saudi Arabia and Turkey even have Ceer and Togg respectively...
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  #42  
Old Posted Feb 4, 2025, 6:07 AM
Edmonton_Ian Edmonton_Ian is offline
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I personally think both ports should be constructed and operated for both commercial and national defense purposes... The more presence we have in the Arctic responsibly the more credible our claim on the Northwest Passage is not to mention being able to deal with anything that might come our way militarily.... I.e. Trump Force One... /s
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  #43  
Old Posted Feb 4, 2025, 5:43 PM
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At some point it will get to that. But I think we're too early, from a political perspective, to make it an important issue. As the Arctic is still too cold.

The current payers will be dead and the next generation of rulers will set the table. Ie: Once Vlad is gone, what will Russia look like.
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  #44  
Old Posted Feb 4, 2025, 11:53 PM
bodaggin bodaggin is offline
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Wab needs to get on this. NOW!!

Smith is begging for corridors and Ontario/Quebec is hot/cold. Manitoba is Smith's out. Give it to her! They're literally having premier meetings multiple times a week. Work out the deal. Opportunity has never been more ripe. Seize it for once MB!
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  #45  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2025, 12:17 AM
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https://news.gov.mb.ca/news/index.html?item=67437&posted=2025-02-04

The Manitoba government is investing $36.4 million over two years to the Arctic Gateway Group (AGG) for capital infrastructure projects at the Port of Churchill that will expand international trade and create good jobs for northern Manitobans, Premier Wab Kinew and Transportation and Infrastructure Minister Lisa Naylor announced today.

“Churchill presents huge opportunities when it comes to mining, agriculture and energy.” said Kinew. “Our government’s investments are fueling northern Manitoba’s economy, increasing international trade and unlocking new economic opportunities for all Manitobans. These new investments will build up Manitoba's economic strength and open our province to new trading opportunities.”

The $36.4-million investment will support the AGG’s port and rail development vision and plan to expand traffic diversification and growth opportunities and attract private investment partners from the agriculture, mining, fertilizer and resupply sectors. Planned works include wharf repairs and freight warehouse upgrades, noted the premier.

“This is about keeping northern communities connected, strengthening Indigenous economic leadership and positioning Manitoba as a key player in the global critical minerals market,” said Sport Minister Terry Duguid, minister responsible for Prairies Economic Development Canada. “Reliable affordable rail service is essential for the North and these investments will ensure it remains a lifeline for communities and businesses. At the same time, we’re creating new opportunities in mining and mineral development – helping Indigenous communities build skills, secure good jobs and drive economic growth. This is a long-term investment in Manitoba’s future and in Canada’s clean energy transition.”

“As a maritime province located in the heart of North America, Manitoba is strategically positioned to ship commodities, critical minerals and natural resources,” said Naylor. “Developing the Port of Churchill will advance northern Manitoba’s economy, support trade expansion with Europe and strengthen our Arctic sovereignty as we position Manitoba as a gateway to the Arctic and to the world.”

“The Arctic Gateway Group values its ongoing partnership with the Province of Manitoba and HudBay Minerals to export Western Canada’s vast resources to international markets,” said Chris Avery, CEO, Arctic Gateway Group. “We’re very pleased that the upcoming shipping season will see us double the volume of critical minerals that will be shipped to internationally markets from the Port of Churchill. As a locally owned and operated Canadian organization, backed by 41 Indigenous and Bayline communities, Arctic Gateway Group will continue to step up and support working people, creating regional opportunities and diversifying the supply chain networks of this province and country.”

The AGG is a subsidiary company of OneNorth, a partnership of 41 First Nation and Bayline communities in Manitoba. The OneNorth community ownership model of the AGG demonstrates economic reconciliation in action, noted the minister.

In August 2024, AGG and Hudbay Minerals Inc. piloted a successful 10,000-tonne zinc concentrate export shipment through the port, establishing Churchill as a northern trade critical minerals supply route.

The investment announced today builds on the Manitoba government’s previous commitments to restore critical rail service to Churchill and surrounding communities, noted the minister.
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  #46  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2025, 12:27 AM
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Originally Posted by bodaggin View Post
Wab needs to get on this. NOW!!

Smith is begging for corridors and Ontario/Quebec is hot/cold. Manitoba is Smith's out. Give it to her! They're literally having premier meetings multiple times a week. Work out the deal. Opportunity has never been more ripe. Seize it for once MB!
Are you even 18?
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  #47  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2025, 12:31 AM
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Originally Posted by Edmonton_Ian View Post
I personally think both ports should be constructed and operated for both commercial and national defense purposes... The more presence we have in the Arctic responsibly the more credible our claim on the Northwest Passage is not to mention being able to deal with anything that might come our way militarily.... I.e. Trump Force One... /s
Was studying how the US invasion will go. We always think of Churchill to fend off the Russians from the North. But it actually becomes a very strong rear operating base against American attacks from the south.

~700km of well protected swamp, shield, and bush separating it from the wide open prairies. Perfect to hide a litany of SAM sites to guard the base. Allowing good cover to fly Southbound sorties to push back the front line. Sea access to feed troops, equipment, and resupply the rear base.

This northern Hud Bay trade route would also be much more guarded from Americans than the current Enbridge mainline. Which will be USA's first priority to secure upon breaching. Can't believe I'm saying that, honestly. But lunatic's are gonna lunatic.
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  #48  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2025, 12:32 AM
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^^ That's great news. I was intrigued by the part that mentioned "... support trade expansion with Europe...". There's been some speculative chatter lately about Canada forging closer economic ties with Europe, even to the point of theoretically joining the E.U in some capacity. If some E.U. money can find it's way into investing in the Port of Churchill, there's the potential for some rapid growth.
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  #49  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2025, 12:37 AM
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Originally Posted by bodaggin View Post
Was studying how the US invasion will go. We always think of Churchill to fend off the Russians from the North. But it actually becomes a very strong rear operating base against American attacks from the south.

~700km of well protected swamp, shield, and bush separating it from the wide open prairies. Perfect to hide a litany of SAM sites to guard the base. Allowing good cover to fly Southbound sorties to push back the front line. Sea access to feed troops, equipment, and resupply the rear base.

This northern Hud Bay trade route would also be much more guarded from Americans than the current Enbridge mainline. Which will be USA's first priority to secure upon breaching. Can't believe I'm saying that, honestly. But lunatic's are gonna lunatic.
Boddagin, for the love of God, don't make me argue with you about military strategy. I don't know much about roads but I know lots about strategy. I'll leave it at Churchill is an awful place to make a stand and to use as a logistical hub.
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  #50  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2025, 12:45 AM
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Boddagin, for the love of God, don't make me argue with you about military strategy. I don't know much about roads but I know lots about strategy. I'll leave it at Churchill is an awful place to make a stand and to use as a logistical hub.
You gonna go head to head vs USA's ~2,000 unit air force on flatland to hold the line? That's a meatgrinder if I've ever heard one. Would need 40,000+ missiles to have a fighting chance and still suffer big losses.

Would like to hear your plan. I know it's your ballgame. But I have no idea how you defend against the world's largest air force on a prairie border. Can improvise drones for the ground force. How you gonna address the air?
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  #51  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2025, 12:49 AM
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You gonna go head to head vs USA's ~2,000 unit air force on flatland? That's a meatgrinder if I've ever heard one. Would need 40,000+ missiles to have a fighting chance and still suffer big losses.

Would like to hear your plan. I know it's your ballgame. But I have no idea how you defend against the largest air force on a prairie border. Can improvise drones for the ground force. How you gonna address the air?
The simple answer is we can't. We never will. Our only SAMs are short range GBAD systems called the RBS70 and it's in Latvia. Our only option would be to disappear into the woods and into the crowds and fight as irregulars. The CAF is simply too small and too underfunded to stop any American incursion. As far as a defensive line in the North, no supplies, no infrastructure and frankly, the Americans wouldn't care we were over a 1000km away from anything important. The only course of action we have is extreme violence indiscriminately and then disappear into the night/crowd and hope the international community assists us diplomatically or militarily somehow. As a start we can hit 2.5-2.75% GDP on defence spending to make up our major shortfalls.
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  #52  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2025, 1:00 AM
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Last edited by bodaggin; May 22, 2025 at 4:55 AM.
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  #53  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2025, 1:09 AM
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Ya, especially in current situation. Pants are at our knees. That's what I meant by the Churchill/Port Nelson base; a retreat point if they blitz us. Good point on insurgency.

This Trump shit has me really pissed off. I think a bootstrapped 30km range missile could be built for $5,000 per unit. They're effectively just a model rocket with avionics, tracking, and a charge. Most of those are quite readily available now. The software might be too. I bet a Raspberry Pi could run most of it. I've been studying F35/F22 systems for vulnerabilities. They're sophisticated, but lots is marketing bluster too. Peacocking.

They can claim stealth all they want but if you can see the jet with your eyes, so can a $60 camera. (In daylight anyway)

The current situation is not good. I expect Trump to make a move. Honestly, within months. Been thinking a lot lately on plans of attack. It's bleak.
Holy. Go outside and get some fresh air bud.
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  #54  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2025, 1:21 AM
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Holy. Go outside and get some fresh air bud.
If there's ever a time to pull your head out of the sand. Now would definitely be the time.
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  #55  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2025, 2:58 AM
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If there's ever a time to pull your head out of the sand. Now would definitely be the time.
He is correct. You can't build missiles for 5000 and they don't operate using $60.00 cameras for optical guidance (which hasn't existed in missiles since the 60s. The Raptor and Lightning II are certainly not peacocking. There is no real studying either as they're so classified it'd make your head spin and their stealth signatures defeat radar which is what actually matters.

There is no retreat point. We can't get there easily in peacetime, how are we going to in war time with hostile air supremacy?

If you're that concerned about it Bodaggin, I'd recommend joining the reserves to receive some training for if the flag ever goes up, God forbid.
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  #56  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2025, 3:29 AM
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Last edited by bodaggin; May 22, 2025 at 4:55 AM.
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  #57  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2025, 6:29 AM
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I can offer more value building shit. No one is working that angle hard enough domestically it seems. Still need field experience feedback to fill in my gaps.

Raptor/Lightning's main claim for stealth is passive radar. To avoid emitting a signal that someone else can pick up and locate you with. But they're hyper connected for situational awareness.... Which emits a signal. A good comms guy should be able to pick up on frequency. Think Flipper Zero on steroids. They're also still a jet which has exhaust (heat + condensate) and noise signatures. The can't hide the laws of physics. The cyber angle exists too. There's many potential exploits. Just a matter of finding the cheapest and most reliable one to attack. Time is just very short to engineer it.

The missiles they shoot use IR or laser homing, which leave giant signal traces. The proximity fuse is of interest to me too.

If you can stop the missiles (IE: Iron Dome), and manufacture cheap enough, it doesn't really matter how many jets they have, you stop their ability to inflict any damage and run them dry on economics.

Is Shilo experimenting with drones for their artillery shells yet? That's a really easy solution. But ground-to-ground only. Not fast enough to hit a jet. Which is the main USA threat.
The AIM120 in American service does not use either laser or IR.

Any weapons trials are done through DLR, 1RCHA can't simply try out a system of it's not in the procurement pipeline. Drones have their uses but they'll never replace tube artillery, 1 Horse being such.
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  #58  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2025, 1:49 PM
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Port of Churchill is topic of this thread, not the invasion from our allies to the south!
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  #59  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2025, 2:29 PM
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Feds are kicking in some more $$ for the railway to Churchill. Commitments for spending now up to around $80 million.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/province-feds-spend-churchill-port-1.7450679

The has to be good news for Churchill and the province in general. It sends a message to potential investors that the Port is a viable option for shipping goods.
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  #60  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2025, 2:37 PM
FactaNV FactaNV is offline
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Feds are kicking in some more $$ for the railway to Churchill. Commitments for spending now up to around $80 million.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/province-feds-spend-churchill-port-1.7450679

The has to be good news for Churchill and the province in general. It sends a message to potential investors that the Port is a viable option for shipping goods.
Good stuff! If it's viable as a port, perhaps it's viable to fund infrastructure upgrades so the trains can move quicker than 30 kmh.
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