Amazon HQ2

[brando]

Originally Posted by GoldenBoot

I think this is a mute point...Austin is a real long shot at securing Amazon's HQ2. Too many negatives hover over any bid by Austin.

I believe Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, or Washington, D.C. will be selected as the project's location.

Agreed. I think the public transportation and car traffic will cross it off the list rather quickly.

Plus, the Governor, Lt. Governor and Texas Senate are going to push to pass another bathroom bill in 2019. Why would you walk into that if you were Amazon?

[austlar1]

Originally Posted by brando

Agreed. I think the public transportation and car traffic will cross it off the list rather quickly.

Plus, the Governor, Lt. Governor and Texas Senate are going to push to pass another bathroom bill in 2019. Why would you walk into that if you were Amazon?

Probably just wishful thinking on my part, but I could almost imagine Abbott backing away from his bathroom bill support in the event Bezos and Amazon made a big point about it. Bezos likes to be a change agent. That is why he bought the Washington Post. He has Texas bonafides. 50,000 Amazon jobs in the Metroplex would likely soften up support from the DFW delegation to the Texas Senate and House for anti LGBT legislation. Meanwhile the DFW area has lots of underutilized light rail and a growing commuter rail network. There are several large transit adjacent parcels in the DFW area that would be ideal for an Amazon HQ2. DFW can adequately supply Amazon's workforce requirements. They've had no problem attracting tech savvy workers to the area. I don't think Austin has a real shot at this because of our lack of transit and even more limited express highway offerings. We just could not handle the additional traffic.

[We vs us]

Originally Posted by austlar1

Probably just wishful thinking on my part, but I could almost imagine Abbott backing away from his bathroom bill support in the event Bezos and Amazon made a big point about it. Bezos likes to be a change agent. That is why he bought the Washington Post. He has Texas bonafides. 50,000 Amazon jobs in the Metroplex would likely soften up support from the DFW delegation to the Texas Senate and House for anti LGBT legislation. Meanwhile the DFW area has lots of underutilized light rail and a growing commuter rail network. There are several large transit adjacent parcels in the DFW area that would be ideal for an Amazon HQ2. DFW can adequately supply Amazon's workforce requirements. They've had no problem attracting tech savvy workers to the area. I don't think Austin has a real shot at this because of our lack of transit and even more limited express highway offerings. We just could not handle the additional traffic.

FWIW I think our current politics will be one of the biggest knocks against any Texas city. Our taxes are low and regulation is lax but the bathroom bill and sanctuary city fight would be potentially insoluble cultural problems for a company like Amazon.

[Novacek]

Anyone who crosses off Austin for traffic and then mentions DC has never been to DC.

[We vs us]

Originally Posted by Novacek

Anyone who crosses off Austin for traffic and then mentions DC has never been to DC.

I'm actually writing this from DC, where I've been for a week on client meetings. This place is just a hash for drivers. The DC transit system is light years ahead of ours -- both light and regional rail, buses all over the place, and all the standard traffic management strategies for dealing with high capacity surface roads and interstates. And it doesn't touch the rush-hour scrum at all. While DC may check a box for "good transit" and "urbanism," the on-the-ground reality for a huge Amazon HQ will be no better than ours.

[drummer]

Yeah, DC traffic is horrible on a lot of levels. The public transportation is pretty good, but that alone isn't reason enough to have Amazon there. Folks who work for Amazon are going to want to consider conveniences, prices of homes/apartments, general quality of life/leisure, etc. I'm sure Amazon is considering a huge list of things as they look at bids coming in.

Austin could be a good fit in spite of its shortcomings, which are many...and public transportation is a big one. However, there are a lot of perks as well - which other cities have in other forms, of course. Others have mentioned Dallas (which I think would be better than Houston, personally). San Antonio lacks the airport advantage, but ABIA can always expand. DFW airport is a huge advantage for the Dallas/Fort Worth area. Houston obviously has this advantage in IAH as well. Who knows? Everyone is just speculating (myself very much included). It'll be interesting to see what happens.

Is there any word on when they're looking to make a decision?

[Novacek]

DC is perhaps the most extreme example of needing to distinguish between the city and the metro (since the city vs. metro are in different regimes/states).

I suspect that any "bid" from DC wouldn't be in the city itself, it would be in the surrounding metro area. The height limit in the district combined with lack of greenfield development opportunities seem to require it (if Amazon wants a contiguous campus able to expand to such a size).

[KevinFromTexas]

Amazon also has a warehouse in San Marcos and one in San Antonio.

[The ATX]

An article by a Bloomberg writer makes a comparison between HQ2 and Sematech.

There’s actually a major precedent: Austin, Texas. In the early 1990s, a group of American technology companies and universities, along with the U.S. Department of Defense, decided to band together to combat Japanese dominance in the semiconductor industry. The resulting consortium, called Sematech, held a highly publicized competition to decide where to locate its operations. Contenders included the Silicon Valley and Boston, but in the end, the prize went to an up-and-coming college town: Austin.

http://www.providencejournal.com/opi...-for-amazon-hq

[We vs us]

"CoStar Group, the real estate information and marketing firm, quizzed hundreds of real estate execs about where Amazon should put its new HQ2.

Austin's odds for getting Amazon's HQ were as high as 3 to 1 according to CoStar's poll. Dallas was given 6:1 odds."

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/...ing-amazon-hq2

No new insight on why Austin would be a good HQ2 candidate ... just turns out our pluses rank higher with commercial real estate folks, generally.

Costar article here:
http://www.costar.com/News/Article/C...ons-HQ2/194240

[drummer]

For Texas, I'm starting to think more and more that Dallas might have the best shot. I personally love the idea of Austin getting it, and I think Austin has more of a chance than San Antonio (and maybe Houston) for a lot of reasons. I just think Dallas is more prepared for something like that with their light rail system, two airports, and hopefully the HSR connection to another major metro area. They also have multiple major universities as well as a huge presence in the tech and retail worlds, not to mention data storage, etc.

Austin has a lot going for it compared to some cities, but I'm not sure that it's going to win this one. However, I can't tell you how much I'd like to be wrong there (and I very well could be).

[masonh2479]

Originally Posted by drummer

For Texas, I'm starting to think more and more that Dallas might have the best shot. I personally love the idea of Austin getting it, and I think Austin has more of a chance than San Antonio (and maybe Houston) for a lot of reasons. I just think Dallas is more prepared for something like that with their light rail system, two airports, and hopefully the HSR connection to another major metro area. They also have multiple major universities as well as a huge presence in the tech and retail worlds, not to mention data storage, etc.

Austin has a lot going for it compared to some cities, but I'm not sure that it's going to win this one. However, I can't tell you how much I'd like to be wrong there (and I very well could be).

I agree, I personally don't see Amazon bringing HQ2 to Austin. The city has grown way to fast for its transportation network to catch up. I also agree that if HQ2 goes to Texas it'll go to the Dallas/Ft. Worth area.

[The ATX]

I like how we are being realistic about Amazon in this thread. If you check out other city threads on multiple forums, posters are in boosterism overdrive in picking their city as the best choice. Some of the reasons they cite for their cities being a top choice/the best choice are ridiculous.

I think Austin has a good chance of being a finalist because Austin and Texas do incentive packages for relocations well, and Texas is business friendly. If this was just an IT or software development facility, Austin would be the top choice IMO. But this is a major corporate campus, not just a Tech play. I think NOVA followed by DFW would be the leading candidates.

[KevinFromTexas]

I-35 could be wider, I guess, but I hate the idea of wider streets. Who will volunteer to see their favorite local spot get knocked down first?

On the corporate welfare issue, I think they'll be fine. There's little point in complaining about national politics if we borrow the same tactics to use at home. it's not like Amazon is particularly needy. Amazon is going to go where the brainpower is with a strong existing workforce pool in their industry. The transportation issue is a bigger one than the incentive one, and maybe if the local government is willing to splurge so generously on corporate incentives they might be better off spending that money on better transportation modes that would no doubt benefit that desired outcome?

[drummer]

Yeah, the only reason I have trouble with NOVA is cost of living and other things that could make it more expensive...but having an East Coast presence could be good, and there are certainly other connectivity things (airports, rail, metro, etc.) that could make that area attractive.

[The ATX]

Not quite HQ2, but the Domain is getting the first bricks & mortar Amazon bookstore in Texas.

[ATXPhil]

I've been hearing that Denver is pretty high on Amazon's right now going into the presentations for several reasons:
- Reasonable cost of living compared to the coastal cities
- Decent talent pool and growing tech scene
- Massive airport that is truly international with direct flights to Asia & Europe, as well as convenient 2 hour flight to Seattle
- Pretty good mass transit system including the light rail that connects most areas of the metro, downtown and the airport (this will be a HUGE factor in their decision from what I'm hearing)
- Cool city with great nightlife, attractions and entertainment
- Land available for a true campus build out

This is just heresay I've picked up on in real estate circles and from friends in Austin that are Seattle transplants but have friends back home connected to Amazon. The incentives pitched in the contest will undoubtedly impact the final decision, and Jeff Bezos reportedly bought a home in the D.C. area recently so it's still probably anyone's guess at this point. Austin has some advantages in the talent aspect but the transportation issues and small airport with limited direct flights are pretty big negatives that will likely hurt our chances. I'm cautiously optimistic but not getting my hopes up.

[Austin1971]

Originally Posted by ATXPhil

I've been hearing that Denver is pretty high on Amazon's right now going into the presentations for several reasons:
- Reasonable cost of living compared to the coastal cities
- Decent talent pool and growing tech scene
- Massive airport that is truly international with direct flights to Asia & Europe, as well as convenient 2 hour flight to Seattle
- Pretty good mass transit system including the light rail that connects most areas of the metro, downtown and the airport (this will be a HUGE factor in their decision from what I'm hearing)
- Cool city with great nightlife, attractions and entertainment
- Land available for a true campus build out

This is just heresay I've picked up on in real estate circles and from friends in Austin that are Seattle transplants but have friends back home connected to Amazon. The incentives pitched in the contest will undoubtedly impact the final decision, and Jeff Bezos reportedly bought a home in the D.C. area recently so it's still probably anyone's guess at this point. Austin has some advantages in the talent aspect but the transportation issues and small airport with limited direct flights are pretty big negatives that will likely hurt our chances. I'm cautiously optimistic but not getting my hopes up.

I just don't see HQ2 being built in Denver. It's too close to Seattle. It's going to be somewhere in the midwest, south or on the east coast. Denver is so isolated. The closest drivable metro is Salt Lake and that's 500 miles away. KC is 600, OKC is 675, Vegas is 750 and Phoenix is 800 for perspective. To my knowledge there isn't even a fulfillment center in Colorado.

Heck I think Seattle is isolated but at least they have Portland and Vancouver which gives you at least 7 million people within same day driving distance.

Let's use Austin as an example with at least 15 million people within a 4 hour drive. An employee can drive, in the same day, conduct business and return home and sleep in their own bed. Texas has 5 fulfillment centers.

Air travel is an important component but accessibility will no doubt be a huge factor in their decision. Having to fly every employee for business would be extremely expensive and cost prohibitive in my opinion.

[KevinFromTexas]

I'm just basing this on my brother's trips for his job, which is in the tech industry, but all of the trips he's taken for conventions and meetings were done so by flying to them. Granted, those were to Las Vegas, southern California and the bay area. I would think unless the location was in the same state, such as in California, that they would fly otherwise.

[The ATX]

Brandywine could end up being the main developer in both the Austin and Philadelphia HQ2 bids.

I say that because their incredible Schuylkill Yards project in Philly is an obvious choice, and the powers that be in Austin have to be considering the 66 acre Broadmoor project for Austin's bid. Brandywine was already seeking zoning for 360' towers long before HQ2, and they are also working on getting a Red Line station at the site. So they have big plans in the works for Broadmoor regardless of HQ2.

Here's an article about Philly's bid that mentions Schuylkill Yards and Brandywine:

http://www.philly.com/philly/busines...-20170915.html