2018 Municipal Election - Page 3

durandy · #1 Posted **Oct 19, 2018, 3:15 AM**

Poll shows Hamilton mayoral race a dead heat over LRT

NEWS 08:46 PM by Matthew Van Dongen The Hamilton Spectator

https://www.thespec.com/news-story/8...heat-over-lrt/

Forum Research poll due to be published Friday says light rail is the top issue for respondents – and those voters are evenly split in their support for pro-LRT incumbent Eisenberger and anti-project challenger Sgro.

durandy · #2 Posted **Oct 19, 2018, 3:54 AM**

here's my take on it so far:

Eisenberger and Sgro seems too close to call unfortunately. That's a bad sign for yesLRT even if Eisenberger wins because there won't be a strong mandate. They will pose some questions to the province and then wait for the response before holding a vote, so there won't be any clear answer until well into 2019.

I don't see any incumbents at risk except for Conley.

ward 1: I see Maureen Wilson winning this one. I live in the ward and while Jason Allan has campaigned well, Maureen has been everywhere and has a lot of support.

Ward 3: I think this will be Nann by a lot with a really solid campaign with lots of volunteers and endorsements.

Ward 7: I pretty much have the same non-opinion as in my previous post on this, it's really hard to tell these people apart.

Ward 8: from driving through the ward I see tons of signs for Adams, Ruddick and Danko, with probably the edge to Danko. My sense is Adams will do a lot worse than the signs suggest and Ruddick better. Hoping for Danko here though.

Ward 9: I'm betting Clark wins this back pretty easily. He's just so much more capable than Conley.

Making the results for LRT, including both/all candidates where it's close:

for: Wilson, Farr, Merulla, Danko, Nann, Eisenberger

against: Whitehead, Partridge, Conley or Clark, Johnson, Ruddick, Adams, pretty much everyone in ward 7, Sgro

somewehere in the middle: Pearson, Ferguson, Collins, Vanderbeek, Jackson

From this, seems to me there are four definite yesLRT wards and six no (unless Clark is being tricky in his recent aboutface, and giving no hope to Dan Macintyre)

However grim as that looks, correct me if I'm wrong, but the noLRT group needs nine votes to cancel the project, whereas the yesLRT only needs eight, since a tie would lose and a failure to cancel it means the project proceeds.

In any event, if Sgro wins as well as one of Ruddick or Adams, then only one more would be needed and it will surely die, maybe before end of year.

On the flip side, if Eisenberger and Danko win, then just two others are needed and I think Ferguson, Pearson, Collins and Vanderbeek will all follow that lead.

In most other scenarios, it comes down to the response from the province to the question of the availability of the funds for other projects.

So basically, big potential for tragedy, small glimmer of a miracle, and most likely, stay tuned for more all night LRT debates well into 2019.

lachlanholmes · #3 Posted **Oct 19, 2018, 4:44 AM**

Jason Farr is at a serious risk from Cameron Kroetsch... who has got major support from the NIMBY folk in W2.

I've barely even seen Farr campaign.

durandy · #4 Posted **Oct 19, 2018, 1:30 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by HamiltonForward

Jason Farr is at a serious risk from Cameron Kroetsch... who has got major support from the NIMBY folk in W2.

I've barely even seen Farr campaign.

I doubt it. I've seen this before with a very active candidate against an incumbent...it looks like there's all this momentum and then they get absolutely crushed. The only incumbent I can think of that lost in the last two elections was Dave Mitchell in 2010, and you can't compare Dave Mitchell to Farr.

SteelTown · #5 Posted **Oct 19, 2018, 2:41 PM**

Whitehead isn't against LRT. He's very vocal about the issue. Without his threat to vote against approval of the B-Line, the LRT would have likely been terminated at Ottawa St and not to Eastgate.

At the end of the day, Whitehead just wants the best for the B-Line LRT, McMaster to Eastgate. Even his advocacy for B-Line to end at Eastgate ended up scrapping the plan for A-Line BRT that was part of the B-Line. So in a way, he ended up hurting Mountain transit service in order to have a better B-Line LRT line.

king10 · #6 Posted **Oct 19, 2018, 3:07 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteelTown

Whitehead isn't against LRT. He's very vocal about the issue. Without his threat to vote against approval of the B-Line, the LRT would have likely been terminated at Ottawa St and not to Eastgate.

At the end of the day, Whitehead just wants the best for the B-Line LRT, McMaster to Eastgate. Even his advocacy for B-Line to end at Eastgate ended up scrapping the plan for A-Line BRT that was part of the B-Line. So in a way, he ended up hurting Mountain transit service in order to have a better B-Line LRT line.

Sgro put out a tweet affirming Whiteheads support of him with Whiteheads face on it saying "I no longer support the building of the LRT"

How is he not against the LRT?

SteelTown · #7 Posted **Oct 19, 2018, 3:40 PM**

In council, Whitehead has always voted in favour of LRT. He even voted yes to the last vote.

Now election fever, sure he supports Sgro. Whitehead probably would like a piece of that $1 billion towards infrastructure on the Mountain. However, if Eisenberger is re-elected I'm sure Whitehead will test the wind direction and if a majority supports re-affirming LRT than Whitehead won't let a billion dollars slip away from our fingers.

We just need to make sure candidates like Danko, Nann, and Willson are elected as Pro-LRT. I'm pretty sure Brad Clark is on the same boat as Whitehead.

interr0bangr · #8 Posted **Oct 19, 2018, 4:20 PM**

I'm doing my part:

durandy · #9 Posted **Oct 19, 2018, 4:25 PM**

well done interr0bangr! As a ward 3 resident, what's your take? Who's got the best ground game?

interr0bangr · #10 Posted **Oct 19, 2018, 5:14 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by durandy

well done interr0bangr! As a ward 3 resident, what's your take? Who's got the best ground game?

In my hood, Dan Smith has the most signs I feel, followed by Farr and then Nann.

drpgq · #11 Posted **Oct 19, 2018, 4:25 PM**

I have to give grudging credit to Sgro for managing to get this far as a no-name by leveraging LRT.

I've seen a lot more Farr signs lately, although I'll admit Kroetsch has been campaigning hard. As much as Farr annoys me sometimes, Kroestch will be worse for development.

durandy · #12 Posted **Oct 19, 2018, 5:05 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by drpgq

I have to give grudging credit to Sgro for managing to get this far as a no-name by leveraging LRT.

ugh these old liberals are the worst. Politically irrelevant, they all decided to use their last gasp of air to destroy LRT. What a legacy Bob Bratina will have. No streets or facilities will bear his name. If they cancel LRT someone should name it after Bob.

NortheastWind · #13 Posted **Oct 19, 2018, 6:30 PM**

There was a Hamilton Municipal Election 2018: Ward 3 Community Associations Debate (more a discussion) on October 9th.

I found Laura Farr followed by Nann the most qualified.

Farr has spent 10 years working for councillors, knows the issues and City Hall, is well spoken and educated, so I decided to put her sign on my lawn.

mattgrande · #14 Posted **Oct 19, 2018, 6:48 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by NortheastWind

There was a Hamilton Municipal Election 2018: Ward 3 Community Associations Debate (more a discussion) on October 9th.

I found Laura Farr followed by Nann the most qualified.

Farr has spent 10 years working for councillors, knows the issues and City Hall, is well spoken and educated, so I decided to put her sign on my lawn.

I attended that debate. I showed up trying to decided between Farr, Nann, Smith, and Bureau. I walked away firmly in Farr's camp.

I'm really worried Ned Kuruc is going to get in. He's got a lot of signs.

interr0bangr · #15 Posted **Oct 19, 2018, 8:00 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by mattgrande

I attended that debate. I showed up trying to decided between Farr, Nann, Smith, and Bureau. I walked away firmly in Farr's camp.

I'm really worried Ned Kuruc is going to get in. He's got a lot of signs.

Ned has signs on almost every abandoned house/property and the ones that seem legit are on properties that have matching Vito Sgro signs, so I'm not too concerned. The guy is a MMA meathead though so (sorry to sterotype, but) I could see him resonating strongly with the east end ti-cats fanbase.

interr0bangr · #16 Posted **Oct 19, 2018, 8:33 PM**

I've convinced everyone in my office that lives in Hamilton to vote for Fred so (including me) that's +6. Two of those are mountaineers in ward 6 and the new ward 12.

TheRitsman · #17 Posted **Oct 19, 2018, 8:34 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by interr0bangr

I've convinced everyone in my office that lives in Hamilton to vote for Fred so (including me) that's +6.

Get a sign and consider donating like $5 too! Signs convince a lot of people to vote for someone despite what people think. You want you vote not to go to waste, convince more people with a sign. There's only 3 days you'd need it for.

interr0bangr · #18 Posted **Oct 19, 2018, 8:42 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRitsman

Get a sign and consider donating like $5 too! Signs convince a lot of people to vote for someone despite what people think. You want you vote not to go to waste, convince more people with a sign. There's only 3 days you'd need it for.

Oh I've got signs baby.

king10 · #19 Posted **Oct 20, 2018, 2:46 AM**

Conley and Pearson come out in suppport of Sgro tn. Both against LRT. This election is getting interesting.

LRTfan · #20 Posted **Oct 20, 2018, 3:45 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by king10

Conley and Pearson come out in suppport of Sgro tn. Both against LRT. This election is getting interesting.

This city is embarrassing.
These career politicians without an ounce of vision really need to go.
Another 15-20 years and they should be mostly gone and the next generation can get to work fixing this once-great city the geezers butchered for 75 years.