Quote:
Originally Posted by BrG
This tells me that you likely don't understand the economics of new construction at that time, and also now.
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I'll be the first to admit that I don't work in the industry and, thus, I see it from an outsider's point of view. Correct me if I'm wrong, but, it sure seemed like at the height of the housing bubble, far too many of the projects being built in the urban core were aimed at the fewest buyers: the very wealthy. If you're saying it's impossible to build homes in or around downtown for under $200,000, then I guess the situation is hopeless for the working class (though it's interesting that the Cornerstone Condos building opened in 2000 and prices there started at under $100,000 for 465 square feet, downtown, and nearby, the Mosaic was finished in 2003 with units starting at $135K - again, new construction. Downtown).
I do understand the raw materials aspect of it. I understand in that prices for steel, etc, skyrocketed, and no, I don't understand why that is though I do understand it's not developers' fault.
Like I said, I could definitely be wrong, but it sure looked like buildings such as the 937, the Encore and others in the Pearl (not to mention South Waterfront) aimed too high, price wise and luxury-wise. And the developers got burned because there were too many luxury units on the market. Even before the crash, there were struggles to sell them. And even during the worst of the recession, housing in the city under $200K was selling, though that slowed once the credit crunch hit - but it wasn't a case of a lack of buyers so much as it was a case of buyers who couldn't get loans once banks stopped lending.
Hey, I understand that it's a business. I assume developers had research that gave them guidance for predicting sales at certain price points, and I understand that certain projects only got built because the assumption was they'd pencil out as their sky-high luxury units sold. There was so much talk in 2007/2008 about empty nesters and retirees looking to downsize. I think - and, again, I could be wrong, but - I think too many of those involved bought into their own hype. Hell... I remember touring an apartment in the Lexis by Hoyt. Maybe you're thinking "Those aren't apartments. They're condos." Well, they were designed and built as apartments, but at the very last minute - so late in the process that they were beginning to lease them - the property was changed to condos rather than apartments. But, hey, that wasn't a get rich quick cash grab at all. Of course not. They probably flipped them to condos so they could fund an orphanage somewhere.
I do realize projects like the 937 (for example) wouldn't have been built if they didn't aim for such high price points. But I wonder what might have been built instead. Surely, whatever would have been built wouldn't be as marvelous (again, using the 937 building as an example... I happen to love that building, personally). But would the Pearl be better off with fewer awesome luxury projects and more smaller places Portlanders can afford to live in? Maybe 8 stories of good is better than 20 stories of wow. Maybe that's not even possible.
I'm not saying all developers are crooked, nor am I saying they could all easily build towers of affordable lofts. I'm just saying there was a lot of greed in the height of the housing bubble. And I'm saying that I hope it isn't going to happen again any time soon. I'm saying that I hope lessons were learned.
Of course, I could be wrong there too. Perhaps there wasn't any greed at all.
I am excited about this particular project, even if it does end up being as pricy as I suspect it will. Lloyd Center has a lot to offer, and this could be a huge step toward creating a lot more housing demand there as it starts to become an actual neighborhood. It could be one heck of a catalyst.
I am for this project in a very big way.