2014 Mayoral Election

[Dr Awesomesauce]

McHattie's one of the few competent and considerate members of council. It would be a shame if we lost him.

[SteelTown]

To run for Mayor do you have to resign as councilor?

[HillStreetBlues]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

To run for Mayor do you have to resign as councilor?

You can not run for multiple offices in the same election.

It would be really great to have a few councillors run for mayor and clear deck a bit to allow a few new-comers to council. I live in ward one and generally think McHattie does a good job, but new blood is a great thing, and for all kinds of reasons it is hard for incumbents to be defeated (it rarely happens at all) and so few people challenge them. It is beyond me why McHattie would want to leave council for the chance to come in fourth or third in the mayoral race, but if he does, I’ll be pleased at the broader choices of candidates in ward one as a result.

[SteelTown]

It appears McHattie announced he's running for Mayor.

[Pearlstreet]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

It appears McHattie announced he's running for Mayor.

Wonderful news! He's got my vote.

[SteelTown]

http://www.thespec.com/news-story/41...r-of-hamilton/

[SteelTown]

Bratina eyes second term, Ferguson not revealing plans

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilt...lans-1.1874715

No one around the council table is reacting to Councillor Brian McHattie's early entry into the Hamilton mayor's race with announcements of their own.

Neither Mayor Bob Bratina nor Ancaster councillor Lloyd Ferguson, whose name is often mentioned as a likely challenger, were ready to state their intentions the day after McHattie's anouncement. But both were keeping the door wide open.

Bratina says he has “no reason not to” run in next year’s municipal election, but he’s not making any formal announcements until the new year.

Bratina, who has been the city’s mayor since 2010, says he’ll formally declare his intentions when nominations open on Jan. 1.

[SteelTown]

Fred Eisenberger plans comeback attempt

http://www.thespec.com/news-story/41...eback-attempt/

Former mayor Fred Eisenberger will run for mayor of Hamilton next year.

"Barring the unforeseen … I'm going to be candidate in 2014," Eisenberger said in a telephone interview today.

Eisenberger was previously mayor from 2006 to 2010. He was defeated by Bob Bratina in his 2010 re-election bid and came in third behind second place finisher Larry Di Ianni.

Eisenberger, 61, has been mulling over a comeback attempt for months.

His commitment to run comes on the heels of Ward 1 Councillor Brian McHattie's decision to seek the mayor's chair.

They'll both face off against Bratina

Eisenberger recently met with McHattie to discuss their mutual plans.

He says McHattie indicated that if they're both in the race, they may end up splitting the vote.

[Dr Awesomesauce]

There may be a lot of votes split between Eisenberger and McHattie. Yeah, why wouldn't Bratina try again...

[bigguy1231]

McHattie doesn't have a chance and if you don't believe me just refer to the recent article on installing bike lanes along Main W. This will be used against him. He will be portrayed as car hating bike lane supporter and that will be the end of his chance to get elected. Suburban voters decide who the mayor will be and they will not support anything that they think will imprede their travel into and through this city. That one issue alone will be McHattie's downfall.

[HillStreetBlues]

Originally Posted by bigguy1231

McHattie doesn't have a chance and if you don't believe me...

Don’t worry, we believe you. But I really hope that we don’t have an election during which any significant amount of time is given to arguing about bike lanes. The City is a billion dollars in debt, that’s the main issue that should be galvanizing both urban and suburban voters alike.

Is there a place to find voting results by poll? I’d be really curious about how monolithic “suburban voters” are. I think there’s room for an anti-sprawl candidate (not McHattie, but someone) who has other policies that speak to young families (as suburbanites more likely are) or other consistuencies, to take a lot of the vote.

[thistleclub]

Originally Posted by HillStreetBlues

Is there a place to find voting results by poll? I’d be really curious about how monolithic “suburban voters” are.

The City has Poll-By-Poll Results for the 2010 Municipal Election as well as the 2006 and 2003 contests.

Cards Cast, 2010

Lower City (01-05) 42,687
Mountain (06-08) 43,498
Suburbs (09-15) 56,747


And as CATCH has noted, some animals are more equal than others.

Registered Voters, 2010 vs. 2003

Ward 01 -4,580 (-18.07%)
Ward 02 -7,154 (-26.92%)
Ward 03 -5,553 (-19.00%)
Ward 04 -3,293 (-12.19%)
Ward 05 -2,790 (-9.77%)
Lower City -23,370 (-17.09%)
Ward 06 -1,512 (-5.08%)
Ward 07 -178 (-0.44%)
Ward 08 -348 (-0.11%)
Mountain -2,038 (-1.94%)
Ward 09 +621 (+3.33%)
Ward 10 -448 (-2.26%)
Ward 11 +6,573 (+36.35%)
Ward 12 +3,525 (+16.85%)
Ward 13 -196 (-1.05%)
Ward 14 -372 (-2.97%)
Ward 15 +542 (+3.00%)
Suburbs +10,425 (+8.23%)

[HillStreetBlues]

Thanks, thistleclub! I didn’t want to ask you specifically, but suspected that you would be the one to find it. These data are cool.

[ScreamingViking]

Bratina has options for his campaign strategy. He could choose Join Me in the Twenty-Minute City, or Hamilton: a City on the GO, or go back to the tried and true with Platform Shmatform 2014

If voters keep strong memories of things like Peggygate and the council censure, his alleged bullying of the city manager during the LRT debate (which will come up again when the integrity commissioner gets around to reporting his investigation), the police board issues, and his most recent embarrassment over how he handled the Mesic shooting, then vote splitting may not be a problem.

[oldcoote]

Originally Posted by bigguy1231

McHattie doesn't have a chance and if you don't believe me just refer to the recent article on installing bike lanes along Main W. This will be used against him. He will be portrayed as car hating bike lane supporter and that will be the end of his chance to get elected. Suburban voters decide who the mayor will be and they will not support anything that they think will imprede their travel into and through this city. That one issue alone will be McHattie's downfall.

In other words: suburban voters are selfish NIMBY's.

God forbid we elect a progressive mayor.

Can't wait for 4 years of Mayor Ferguson.

[bigguy1231]

Originally Posted by oldcoote

In other words: suburban voters are selfish NIMBY's.

God forbid we elect a progressive mayor.

Can't wait for 4 years of Mayor Ferguson.

All voters to one extent or another look out for their own interests. Most are happy with their local councilor as long as they take care of the basics and most councilors are very good at doing that. Thats why they get re elected over and over again. Municipal politics is pretty basic. See to it that roads are plowed and garbage is picked up and all will be good.

[HillStreetBlues]

Originally Posted by bigguy1231

All voters to one extent or another look out for their own interests. Most are happy with their local councilor as long as they take care of the basics and most councilors are very good at doing that. Thats why they get re elected over and over again. Municipal politics is pretty basic. See to it that roads are plowed and garbage is picked up and all will be good.

I know that this opinion is very common (that’s why turnout is so low municipally- “municipal politics is pretty basic,” so it’s not a big deal if I don’t make it out), but it’s dead wrong. Firstly, most councillors are not “very good” at doing the basics. City staff is fairly good at doing the basics (because the basics are basic! And cities have been doing them for a long time.) Councillor so-and-so is not out troubleshooting waste collection when it’s garbage day in his ward.

Secondly, the elementary nature of much of what we traditionally associate with the municipal level of government is no longer even close to the only thing a municipality does. I think that, in a city of any size (even much smaller than Hamilton), it would behoove us to realize that budgets have become very large, and the breadth of different services very wide. We need much more professional councillors than we have here in Hamilton, and to get them we need to regard them as professionals who are managing much more than “basic services.”

[durandy]

Originally Posted by HillStreetBlues

I know that this opinion is very common (that’s why turnout is so low municipally- “municipal politics is pretty basic,” so it’s not a big deal if I don’t make it out), but it’s dead wrong. Firstly, most councillors are not “very good” at doing the basics. City staff is fairly good at doing the basics (because the basics are basic! And cities have been doing them for a long time.) Councillor so-and-so is not out troubleshooting waste collection when it’s garbage day in his ward.

I can name more than one councillor who gets elected purely because they make sure your garbage is picked up the day after the garbagemen didn't pick it up.

As for your other comment, you're right but I don't think an imaginary ínformed electorate or a fulsome civic conversation is going to be the thing that fixes it. Municipal politics are hobbled by the lack of leadership, both by the absence of political parties and the lack of an executive arm or strong mayor.

[thistleclub]

What will drive Hamilton voters?
(Hamilton Spectator, Matthew Van Dongen, Oct 28 2013)

Brace for a collision between car commuters, bus boosters and light-rail advocates as Hamilton's marathon race for mayor really starts to roll.

Expect the election to play out in the shadow of a stadium that is also the city's biggest and most bitterly debated infrastructure investment in recent history. It could even turn on a toss of the dice over a controversial casino.

Above all, the municipal vote will hinge on the question of leadership, say opinion leaders polled by The Spec a year before the Oct. 27, 2014 vote. The right champion for the economy, transit and a council still divided along suburban-urban lines.

With campaign-style jousting already under way, The Spectator gives you a taste of a few meaty issues that could frame the battle for the city's top job.

Transportation

Keanin Loomis wants our next mayor to show "vision, leadership and ambition" in transforming our transportation system — which the chamber of commerce head considers the "biggest drag" on Hamilton's economy.

Different candidates will define transit leadership in different ways, predicts Marvin Ryder, an assistant professor in McMaster's school of business. He argues Mayor Bob Bratina "bet heavily" on bringing all-day GO Train service to Hamilton as a winning formula — even as Metrolinx pushes timely service further into the future.

Bratina has also infuriated transit advocates by refusing to champion a much-debated light-rail transit line that would run east-west through the city. His known competitors, Councillor Brian McHattie and former mayor Fred Eisenberger, are fervent LRT supporters — but they'd face a challenge keeping council support on the rails if Ontario doesn't pay the $1-billion tab.

It's not all about light rail. City bus ridership is languishing, and the debate over two-way traffic conversions and complete streets remains hot. Ancaster Councillor and rumoured mayoral candidate Lloyd Ferguson, an LRT fan, has warned against shrinking too many major traffic arteries for bike lanes or two-way conversions because of congestion.

The stadium

Just before the election, Hamilton voters should wander into a new $145-million Tim Hortons Field for the first time. Ryder wonders which memories will stick with them at the polls. "Will it be the Ticats' first game in the new stadium? Or will it be that empty wasteland in the west harbour? I think it's a very open question."

Eisenberger was pummeled in the last election over the bitter battle — an effort that saw the city spend millions to buy out reluctant homeowners for a failed west harbour stadium.

Bratina helped broker a deal with the Tiger-Cats — who had threatened to leave town over the west harbour plan — to rebuild Ivor Wynne instead.

But that forced compromise wasn't popular, said Larry Di Ianni. The former mayor, who said he isn't considering another run at the job "at the moment," suggested residents won't easily forget the divisive and sometimes ridiculous stadium battle.

"I think the considered opinion of the majority is the stadium is in the wrong place," Di Ianni said. "It's possible someone could be held to account for that."

Council relations

Bratina's thorny relationship with council looms large in the upcoming election.

In 2012, Bratina was found to have broken council's code of conduct after lying about who initiated a $30,000 raise for his chief of staff, Peggy Chapman. That finding spurred a unanimous council censure. Both were firsts for a Hamilton mayor.

The mayor is also awaiting the results of a second ethics complaint investigation spurred by a confrontation with city manager Chris Murray during a fractious LRT debate.

Finally, council tried to rein in the mayor's ability to lobby senior levels of government on his own by creating a "governmental relations" team to "assist" him in high-level talks.

An effective mayor needs a "thick skin" and a "strong relationship" with a majority of council colleagues, said Terry Cooke, past chair of the Region of Hamilton-Wentworth and champion of the eventual amalgamated city.

Cooke wouldn't discuss the record of Bratina or any other potential mayoral candidate. However, he said that in general, finding common ground in politically diverse Hamilton isn't easy. "When I left (politics), I said it was time to let someone else use my Kevlar vest. I was only half-joking."

Economy

Expect anyone on the current council gunning for the mayor's chair to "take credit for all the cranes," said Ryder, pointing to a construction boom that featured $1 billion in building permits in 2010.

The visible reminder of new prosperity may sway voters, he said. But on the other hand, "a lot of people are ready to just vote for the guy likeliest to keep their taxes down."

He said council should be proud of recent budget restraint, including an average 1.9 per cent tax bump in 2013. But that record could easily be forgotten in another "nasty showdown" next spring over a bulging police budget already north of $140 million.

Would-be leaders in pursuit of a zero-increase budget can't forget those Hamiltonians living in poverty, said Cooke, head of the Hamilton Community Foundation. "I think the debate has to include a conversation about how we build on momentum in our inner city neighbourhoods."

Casino

A $200-million downtown hotel and casino was shunted to the back burner this term after council voted to keep rural Flamboro Downs as its preferred gaming site.

But if the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Commission survives a change in leadership and an auditor's review of its expansion plans, the controversial casino proposal might still come alive to rile up a divided electorate.

"Our (chamber of commerce) membership is quite split, so it should obviously be an issue," said Loomis.

Cooke said many social and health agencies, including the foundation, are on the record stating a casino "would be particularly bad news" for downtown residents.

"I think (candidates) would have to declare themselves on that one pretty quickly," he said.

[thistleclub]

Table is set for more citizen engagement
(Hamilton Spectator, Howard elliott, Oct 29 2013)

The ingredients are all on the table for an exhilarating degree of citizen engagement in next fall's municipal election.

Even a year out, we have the makings of a vigorous race for the mayor's chair. Former mayor Fred Eisenberger has signalled he will run, as has Ward 1 Councillor Brian McHattie. Incumbent Bob Bratina is probably in, and respected suburban councillor Lloyd Ferguson is apparently leaning that way. If only those four run, there should be enough competing visions to spark public interest.

There is encouraging grassroots interest, even this far out. The Hamilton Civic League is conducting an exhaustive poll trying to ascertain what matters to Hamilton voters. If enough respondents give it critical mass, it could be an important democratic tool leading up to and during the campaign. (To complete the survey, go to civicleague.ca)

McHattie's early entrance to the mayor's race already has potential successors musing about running in Ward 1. An incumbent stepping aside isn't that common in Hamilton, and it's good in the sense that new blood and ideas surface and get attention.

The power of incumbency is on many minds. It's a force to be reckoned with in any jurisdiction, but more so in Hamilton simply because we have so many long-term councillors. That has led to calls for term limits, which is an issue that deserves wide discussion. Because a change in provincial legislation is required to impose term limits, it won't happen for the 2014 election. But it could for the next one.

On one hand, term limits would address the issue of the incumbency juggernaut. But others argue the electorate will impose term limits when it's appropriate — it's called voting day — and inflexible legislation isn't the answer. Vigorous debate, and perhaps even a question on the election ballot, are appropriate.

Transportation and related issues — walkable neighbourhoods and two-way street conversions are examples — could well be ground zero for the battle of competing visions in the election. LRT will continue to be pushed by progressive forces, including a robust urbanist contingent, the chamber of commerce and the development community, but opposed by a sizeable contingent that thinks it unnecessary and unaffordable. How that debate plays out will say a lot about Hamilton's vision and confidence going forward.

Downtown renewal is already well under way, so doesn't need as much focus during this election as in the past, but the type of development is bound to remain controversial. The casino debate is not dead by any stretch, so expect that to resurface.

A year is a long time to build and maintain citizen engagement. Let's hope the current encouraging signs continue to bear fruit.