2011 Federal Election

[bornagainbiking]

Just a thought.
One element of the election platforms or national concerns is National Defence. Two major parties (Conservative and NDP) plan to remain on course with the National ship building 30 yr plan. Port Weller in St Catharines is in the running and if not successful could get spin off business. Refit for frigates. There will be two sites selected large ships and small ships and it looks like east and west coast.
This is a lost trade or skill and in some cases skilled tradesmen are using their transferable skill out west as there are no or few jobs in this industry.

Just as a point of interst, ships are made of steel and lots of it. This is a currently dormant industry.
Maybe we could use some local knowledgable candidates to lobby long and hard for the contracts to provide Canadian steel for Canadian ships. For the 30 year plan.
An interesting side note is that the Liberal Canidate for the riding associated with the Quebec bidder is suggesting that the CURRENT deadline be extended so the local entry can resolve it's fiscal difficulties and I think it may be bought up by a Italian firm?????
So this may be a question to ask your local Candidate if you have any vested interest in our local steel industry and the plight of Local 1005.
Go for "MADE IN CANADA"
How will the proposed30 year national ship building strategy affect the local CANADIAN steel industry?

[bornagainbiking]

Sheila Copps to rally Liberal troops
Daniel Nolan
April 25, 2011



The Liberal party has drafted Sheila Copps to help the party’s fortunes in Hamilton.

The former longtime Hamilton East MP and deputy prime minister will be the guest speaker at a rally Wednesday morning at the Discovery Centre.

The move comes as various polls indicate the New Democratic Party is surging in support, almost tying the Liberal party. A weekend poll by the Nanos Research Group had the NDP at 23.7 per cent national support, compared with 26.1 per cent for the Liberals. The Conservatives remained in the lead with 37.8 per cent. The NDP control the city’s three urban seats.

Copps is attending the 11 a.m. rally to endorse Anne Tennier, who is running in Hamilton Centre. But fellow local candidates Dave Braden, Marie Bountrogianni and Michelle Stockwell will also be on hand. Tennier is trying to take Hamilton Centre from New Democrat MP David Christopherson, who won it in 2004 after defeating Liberal cabinet minister Stan Keyes.

Bountrogianni, a former Hamilton Mountain MPP and Ontario cabinet minister seen by many as Copps’s heir, called the visit “fantastic.” Copps was ousted from the party in 2004 after a bruising nomination battle with cabinet minister Tony Valeri and Bountrogianni believes the visit indicates “the wounds are healed and Sheila is coming to pay a political visit to Hamilton. That shows you how classy she is.”

Copps also staged a local rally for the Liberals in the dying days of the 2008 election. She was later courted by Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff to run again, but she spurned all advances.

Bountrogianni said the NDP surge is largely as a result of the party’s numbers jumping in Quebec.

Bountrogianni is trying to win Hamilton Mountain from NDP incumbent Chris Charlton.

“It is hard to defeat incumbents,” she said. “I’m not, by any means, saying this is easy, but I don’t think Mr. Layton’s surge in Quebec will affect us here except to make people rethink who they want to vote for. ... Do we really want a socialist government getting us out of a recession? I don’t think people want a socialist prime minister.”

The Liberals held every Hamilton-area seat during Copps’s decade in power. In the 2006 election, it was wiped out. The Conservatives hold nine of the 13 seats from Oakville to Niagara Falls, including Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, Burlington, Haldimand-Norfolk and Niagara West-Glanbrook. The NDP hold the remaining four.

[email protected]

[SteelTown]

There's now a chance that the NDP could be the government. One poll have projected the NDP with 100 seats. Liberal with 60 or so seats. Together that's a majority.

If that happens it's likely Harper's budget will be defeated again and NDP will be asked to form a government.

Christopherson if re-elected will likely be a cabinet minister.

[drpgq]

Layton love-in boosts locals

http://www.thespec.com/news/local/ar...-boosts-locals

Feeling orange yet?

Political pundits say the resurgence of the federal New Democrats in Quebec can’t help but make it easier to keep three Hamilton seats in the party fold.

And it threatens local Liberals, who used to wield tremendous power in the city.

Recent polls show the soaring popularity of NDP leader Jack Layton has the New Democrats rivalling the Liberals for second place and leading all federal parties in the previous political hinterlands of Quebec.

What does that mean in Hamilton?

McMaster University political scientist Henry Jacek expects to see the three NDP incumbents increase their pluralities while Liberal candidates struggle to stay second ahead of the Conservatives.

“It must be very demoralizing for the Liberals because they have been out of power for five years and now they look like they might be in their weakest situation since Confederation,” Jacek said.

And if the NDP makes history Monday night and becomes the official opposition, it makes Hamilton Centre longtime political lieutenant David Christopherson, should he win his seat, a major party power player, Jacek believes. One local pundit believes Christopherson is on a short list as a possible leadership successor for Layton.

Another political pundit, who asked not be named, said the Layton popularity won’t change the Hamilton political map. While the NDP will hold its seats, the boost of its leader should guarantee victory for Conservative David Sweet in Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale and Dean Allison in Niagara West-Glanbrook.

The pundit said NDP incumbents Chris Charlton and Wayne Marston will be the biggest beneficiaries of the orange surge and should each be able to hold off Tory challenges.

Charlton believes the party’s current popularity may help her beat back a Conservative charge from Terry Anderson in her Hamilton Mountain riding. And she feels it bodes well for the party nationally.

“We had 104 ridings in the last election where the NDP finished either first or second. Are a number of ridings in play? Of course there are.

“I know this is really good news. I know a lot of campaigns are feeling upbeat heading into the last week of the campaign. But I also know the other parties will be attacking us for the remainder of the week,” she said.

Alex Buck, a spokesperson for the Anderson campaign, said the NDP surge in Quebec hasn’t spread west. He said that is probably because most Ontarians still remember how unpopular Bob Rae was as Ontario premier.

“People in Ontario know better than to vote NDP,” he said.

Jon Kastikainen, campaign manager for Burlington Liberal candidate Alyssa Brierley, said Layton-mania hasn’t washed ashore at this end of Lake Ontario.

“I think you may have seen it in some parts of the country where there are a couple of ridings the NDP has picked up, but here, people seem to realize the only way to stop Harper is to vote Liberal,” he said.

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905-526-3388

[markbarbera]

The mid-campaign NDP surge is nothing new to politics, but it rarely sustains through to election night. What is not being reported is the high levels of undecided voters who have yet to set their minds on who to vote for. Mind you, support for the NDP has never been at this level even at any point during a campaign.

If you look regionally, the surge for the NDP is mainly in Quebec, where they may actually gain some 20-30 seats at the expense of the BQ. In the other parts of the country they are taking from both Liberal and Conservative support, more from the Libs than the Cons. For anyone that is not a Harper fan this is terrible news, as the NDP surge, if it sustains, splits the left vote in Ontario and may allow the Cons to pick up enough seats to form their long-coveted majority.

At this stage (based on the April 26 Ekos poll) support looks to be distributing in a manner that will see Parliament with 139 Conservative seats, 80 NDP seats, 61 Liberal seats, 27 BQ seats and Canada's first elected Green MP.

Is there an NDP/Liberal coalition government on the horizon?

[markbarbera]

The danger in vote-splitting (or opportunity, if you are a Conservative faithful) is illustrated in the most recent Nanos poll. In Ontario, Nanos has decided vote split nearly even between left and right candidates, but the left vote is further split evenly among NDP and Liberal support. So even left/right decided vote could produce 71 seats for Cons, and 17 each for NDP and Libs.

This is where our electoral system is most flawed, in the skewed results a first-past-the-post model produces. Some think a proportional representation would be a fairer representation, but this removes the regional representation element necessary for a Parliamentary democracy to work. Personally I prefer the French model where any riding that does not have a candidate with 50%+1 vote after the general election has a runoff vote between the first and second place candidate. IMO Canada should adopt this practice for electing MP's to the House of Commons, and use PR from the general election to shape the Senate.

[mattgrande]

I've been reading a lot about different electoral systems. The idea of switching to an Instant Runoff (or even STV) system of voting really appeals to me. There doesn't really seem to be much appetite for it among the general population, unfortunately. And at the National level, only the NDP and Greens have any interest in it.

[realcity]

That video almost makes me like Glee. The best thing was the scenery, makes me miss Mac and the Burke Science Brotherhood.

[realcity]

Without a strong economy we can't have anything else. It is always about the economy. For without that we don't have money for healthcare, education, green programs etc. It's a pretty simple vote for me.

The students/youth vote may be behind the orange surge, I was there as a student my first vote cast ever was for Bob Rae. It's nothing new that they vote for NDP, and unions have always been their base. These students will be the ones that will have to pay for the massive spending that Layton is proposing. Once they get a real life outside of campus life, stop watching Glee, and a career in Halton or KW they'll be good old Conservatives.... GOC, lol... we should make that a thing. like Canada's version of the GOP.

The NDP Quebec surge is interesting but not surprising. Quebec is the most socialist province in the country. Right now the only two parties that are truly national parties are the Cons and NDP. So seeing them as the top two is fine with me.

Does it really matter? everyone governs from the center once in power. It's only in campaigns do we ever hear about these grand plans that never happen.

[bornagainbiking]

I'm getting the feeling this is a giant Pep Rally and the Glee reference is too close for comfort. The only thing missing are the mascots like a giant pumpkin or the Kool-aid jug full of Orange Juice.
I tend to agree with Real as money makes the world go round or pays for the fuel.
If the youth vote carries the NDP thru, they will be footing the bill for the longest. Bon Appetit!!!!!!!
The media has turned this into a circus or gossip session, instead of honest journalism we are reduced to TMZ like or tabloid reporting getting the dirt.
Politicians don't have to slag each other anymore, they can contract that out or institutions with vested interrest or survival take advantage of public funded media to provide tainted coverage (CBC) to influence the people in the name of honest reporting.
I don't reallyunderstand what was so wrong or is wrong with the Status Quo, How was it affecting anyone, so personally. The budget was almost neutral.
We elect a party and the leader makes decisions and every one decision will not satisfy ALL Canadians. We have labour, language, business, special interest, religion, education, regional, etc etc lobby groups to consider.
Isiah or God wills it, hopefully it works out and we will survive just how well is the question. Already the almighty commerial markets are reacting.

[bornagainbiking]

Just watched the morning news and they had a photo op down at Stelco. It may be my imagination but I didn;t get the felling that the Union executive was giving the NDP or any party their backing.
Very Neutral. Any party?
I would have expected a resounding show of Union/labour support.
Just thought it was a joke how David Christopherson was yelling that he was going to continue to fight for the Stelco people (like that and 50 cents will get ya a cup of coffee). Doing great so far.
Ex Mayor Dianni even said the night of the local debate, how he used to ask him for help for the city and David said "What can I do, I just an NDP back bencher. What did he do with the Haida and Discovery Centre in his riding. Hopfully this will be resolved soon for the families sakes.

[mattgrande]

Originally Posted by realcity

Without a strong economy we can't have anything else. It is always about the economy. For without that we don't have money for healthcare, education, green programs etc. It's a pretty simple vote for me.

Liberal, I assume?

[SteelTown]

http://www.thespec.com/opinion/edito...ion-by-default

This election, The Spectator’s editorial board feels closest to that latter group. We believe Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are the best and most logical choice to form the next government of Canada.

[devil's advocate]

Seem as though the young vote is really in favor of split voting, been seeing this website pop up on facebook/twitter all week. http://www.projectdemocracy.ca/

I am still on the fence as to who I will vote for as I do not like Harper, but also that some of Layton's ideas are a little unrealistic, and the Liberals are just a mess right now. To be totally honest I never liked most modern politicians, most just seem like paid lairs but that's a convosation for a different day.

Sorry for if this is a stupid question but I've always wanted to ask this, what is up with the Niagara West-Glanbrook boundaries. Would it not make more sense to split that riding up. Since half is Hamilton and the other Niagara. Shouldn't the Hamilton part(Stoney creek/Glannbrook) purge with Hamilton Mtn. Then the rest turn into is own riding of Niagara or purge with Welland. Or is this due to pre-amalgamation.

[durandy]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

http://www.thespec.com/opinion/edito...ion-by-default

This election, The Spectator’s editorial board feels closest to that latter group. We believe Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are the best and most logical choice to form the next government of Canada.

Wow. Bold move by them considering how well the Conservatives are going to do tomorrow in Hamilton. Shouldn't they really be endorsing David Sweet, Brad Clark, Jim Byron, Terry Anderson and those other shining stars? Or maybe they're going for something more provocative.

[SteelTown]

Any local predictions?

I think all the MPs will be re-elected, no changes in Hamilton.

Federally I'm predicting a Conservative minority. NDP surge, over 40 seats. NDP and Liberals will have enough seats combined to have a majority.

[markbarbera]

I doubt any of the seats in the area will be changing over. However, seeing as Ignatieff was in Stoney Creek on Saturday the Libs must think this riding is winnable for them.

Nationally, I am not convinced the NDP surge is going to translate into as many additional seats as the popularity polls suggest. Support for NDP is soft in Quebec and there is still a large undecided number in that province (most provinces actually). The NDP also don't have the organization in Quebec to bring out the vote. I am wondering about vote-splitting gaining an advantage for the Conservatives, but even if it does this will only affect a handful of setas and Con gains in Ont will be countered by losses in Quebec and BC.

I'm predicting the following seat projection (assuming NDP Quebec surge does not translate into seats):

Conservative 136 seats
NDP 67 seats
Liberal 66 seats
BQ 38 seats
Greens 1 seat

If the NDP surge actually is fully realized in Quebec today, then we're looking at a completely different ball game:

Conservative 135 seats
NDP 100 seats
Liberal 64 seats
BQ 8 seats
Greens 1 seat

This would be much more interesting outcome as it may mean finally the end of the BQ.

Either outcome, I am predicting a short-lived minority Conservative government, followed quickly by a NDP/Liberal government alliance similar to the 1985 Ontario Government Liberal/NDP Accord.

[Mininari]

Vote Quimby.

[SteelTown]

Very early results so far

Liberal ahead on Hamilton Mountain
NDP ahead in ADFW
NDP ahead in Hamilton Centre

This is only one poll

[SteelTown]

NDP ahead at Hamilton Mountain, Conservative at 2, Liberal at 3rd.