Provincial Economies III

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I am mostly going to leave the independence discussion to the other thread and to the benevolent tutelage of the colonials by the Parisien.

But on the economics, I will say that past is not going to be a guide to the future. The last few referendums happened when Quebec was more prosperous but also far less integrated into the global economy. Today's deindustrialization is much more underpinned by global supply chains but also highly dependent on access the American market. And I'm not so sure that populist America would be interested in the same deals with a smaller Québec. And even less so if a lot of ex-Canada was absorbed into the US.

For example, a huge part of Quebec's aerospace and defence sector benefits from access to the US because of ITARs exemptions and qualifications under various bilateral or Five Eyes cooperation. Most of that would almost guaranteedly disappear with independence. Scotland is having the same discussion about naval shipbuilding over there. Si cela en vaut la peine peut être décidée seulement par les gens de Québec.

Quebec in 1980 and 1995 was not more prosperous than today, not in actual terms nor relative to the rest of Canada, the US or the western world.

I agree that it's much more integrated with its neighbours and the world economically, as we all are.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Quebec in 1980 and 1995 was not more prosperous than today, not in actual terms nor relative to the rest of Canada, the US or the western world.

I agree that it's much more integrated with its neighbours and the world economically, as we all are.

Maybe not 1995. But I think Québec definitely held its own in the era when Montreal was the financial centre for Canada. Maybe that didn't filter down to the working class.

In any event, if the question is who has better prospects now? I'd say Québec.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Maybe not 1995. But I think Québec definitely held its own in the era when Montreal was the financial centre for Canada. Maybe that didn't filter down to the working class.

In any event, if the question is who has better prospects now? I'd say Québec.

That's an interesting point.

People talk about Venezuela, but when Venezuela was "doing well" into the 1990s, 15% of the population was beset by famine. When Hugo Chavez died after 10-15 years in power, famine was down below 5%.

With Chavismo still reigning over the country after his death, they got famine down to basically zero a few years later.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It's honestly not that hard to play. And we see the Québec government doing this right now with things like me battery plants. But also things like pension plan investment domestically.

Fundamentally, Ontario is so dependent on the housing ponzi, both domestically and nationally, that it is really going to struggle to rebuild and sustain an industrial economy. For all kinds of different reasons, Québec never went down the same path. It paid for not doing so with worse economics. But not it's benefiting from not doing so.

The view that language is the sole determinant of economic success is ridiculous. It might speak to the eventual absolute size, because of addressable size of the market. But a bigger economy doesn't necessarily mean a higher quality of life.

Also, by definition, one of the immediate effects of the housing Ponzi is to reduce all per capita metrics, so even though it does grow the total GDP, it's going to be bad for per capita GDP.

The bigger the population gap between Quebec and Ontario, the wealthier Quebec is likely going to be and the poorer Ontario is likely going to be.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Acajack

It's worth mentioning that I don't think I ever heard a PQ person say that Quebec as a country would be richer than the ROC.

Their discourse has always been that things would be fine economically, generally acknowledging that it might take a bit of a hit in the first couple of years.

If you'd ask them they'd say they think Quebec would similar to France, Finland or Japan in terms of overall prosperity.

There are always bizarre assumptions made about the post-independence world. Sovereignists seem to act like everything will be the same except for different passports, currency and postage stamps. Nothing could be further from the truth. Even Brexit hasn't gone this well. And they didn't even break up a country or leave a currency.

Also, the comparisons listed are bizarre. Japan is a massive population in close proximity to other large markets. Finland and France are part of the EU, a market of 450M and part of the Eurozone, sharing a currency with 350M. Quebec that doesn't launch with USMCA on day one would be in a world of hurt economically. And there is literally nothing Québec has which the Americans are desperate enough to negotiate over. As we see now with complaints from US Secretary of State over labelling requirements in French, the Americans don't really believe they have to cave in much to Canada of 40M. Just imagine what they'll say to a region of 8-10M.

Will add too that a lot of the assumptions are based on continuity of deals that Canada itself would not have today, and that we largely benefit from, mostly out of legacy. If NATO and Five Eyes were being formed today, we might well have been left out. Just like we got left out of AUKUS. If there's no Canada, then there's no reason to continue the charade with successor states. This is again, similar to the assumptions made by the Brexiters.

[Truenorth00]

I've talked about this this before. Developing countries don't see importing fuel as a benefit despite what Canadians think about exporting oil and gas.

Ethiopia becomes first country to ban internal combustion engines: Only EVs allowed..

.....
Having spent around $6 billion last year importing fossil fuels, Ethiopia's Ministry of Transport and Logistics has just decided to allow only electric vehicles to enter the country. One of the reasons for this drastic decision, according to Minister Alemu Sime, is the country's lack of access to cheap foreign currency. This makes it difficult to import petrol and diesel due to economic pressures:....
.. .

https://www.notebookcheck.net/Ethiop....802396.0.html

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I've talked about this this before. Developing countries don't see importing fuel as a benefit despite what Canadians think about exporting oil and gas.

If this becomes a trend in Africa, where will we 'export' our stolen cars? (Apparently they're always ICE, as stolen EVs can be disabled remotely).

edit
It's OK - apparently they can still go to the Middle East.

[Truenorth00]

Pretty interesting what's happening in Quebec with Northvolt.

Northvolt: «il faut vraiment changer d'attitude au Québec», dit Legault

QUÉBEC — Le premier ministre François Legault a pris la défense jeudi du promoteur de l'usine de batteries Northvolt contre la fronde que suscite ce méga-projet.

En mêlée de presse, il a appelé les Québécois à changer d'attitude sur le développement économique.

Son ministre de l'Environnement, Benoit Charette, s'est pourtant dit confiant le même jour que le projet allait se réaliser comme prévu.

Le projet Northvolt, le plus important investissement industriel privé de l'histoire du Québec, se construira notamment sur des milieux naturels en Montérégie et il est en train de fédérer tous les groupes environnementaux contre lui.

M. Legault a dit avoir eu des discussions avec certains représentants d'entreprises qui ne «comprennent pas» l'opposition aux grands projets économiques.

....

[Truenorth00]

Really sad to hear the Covered Bridge chip factory burning down.

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7131884

[Airboy]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Really sad to hear the Covered Bridge chip factory burning down.

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7131884

There was a lot of talk locally about chips in general and Covered Bridge had a huge following. Went by the only grocer that carries them here and they were almost sold out already. How they can recover quickly.

[whatnext]

Wow, is this Canada or South Africa? Alberta sounds Third World.

Rotating brownouts leave thousands of Albertans without power Friday
Electric system operator issued provincewide grid alert at 6:49 a.m.
Janet French · CBC News · Posted: Apr 05, 2024

Tens of thousands of Alberta households lost power Friday morning as a shortage of electrical generation prompted the province's electrical system operator to temporarily cut usage.

At least seven major power plants were generating little to no electricity early Friday afternoon, according to information on the Alberta Electric System Operator website.

"It is truly a combination of many things that occurred that got us into the rotating outage situation," Marie-France Samaroden, vice-president, grid reliability operations at AESO, said at a news conference Friday afternoon.

AESO issued a grid alert at 6:49 a.m., meaning the province's electric system was under stress and needed to use emergency reserves.

A wind power forecast overestimated the amount of wind power to be generated Friday morning by 800 megawatts, Samaroden said.

When the Keephills 2 natural gas plant west of Edmonton tripped offline two hours later, AESO asked power distribution companies, including Edmonton's Epcor and Calgary's Enmax, to begin rotating outages to their customers, she said......

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...iday-1.7165290

[Acajack]

This can happen anywhere from time to time so not to bash on Alberta especially, but even so it's not guaranteed that the standard of living that we've enjoyed all our lives will always be available to us.

As a Canadian I never really even thought about this until fairly recently.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Acajack

This can happen anywhere from time to time so not to bash on Alberta especially, but even so it's not guaranteed that the standard of living that we've enjoyed all our lives will always be available to us.

As a Canadian I never really even thought about this until fairly recently.

It is structural to some extent.

More likely in Alberta and Ontario. Those are the provinces that have adopted complex open (free enterprise) markets for power production.

Less likely in provinces that have well managed central utilities.

Alberta could also build more inter-connects with other provinces. However it is a bit of a weird position. Inter-connects with BC involve traveling through mountain passes.

Inter-connects with Saskatchewan involve converting from AC to DC and back to AC. Alberta is part of same grid as BC so both systems are phase locked. Saskatchewan is part of a different system, so there is an extra step in the process.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Acajack

This can happen anywhere from time to time so not to bash on Alberta especially, but even so it's not guaranteed that the standard of living that we've enjoyed all our lives will always be available to us.

As a Canadian I never really even thought about this until fairly recently.

Yeah....I don't see it. This is entirely a local management problem. Not something that should afflict other parts of the country, unless we adopt their practices.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by Acajack

This can happen anywhere from time to time so not to bash on Alberta especially, but even so it's not guaranteed that the standard of living that we've enjoyed all our lives will always be available to us.

As a Canadian I never really even thought about this until fairly recently.

It's weird, I do a google search for "bc hydro brownouts" and I don't get any news articles, other than ones where BC Hydro has sold electricity to Alberta so that Alberta can prevent brownouts. Same for "saskatchewan brownouts". "Manitoba brownouts" leads to a couple of stories about outages caused by weather, but those are because of things like ice and wind knocking out transmission lines. I search for "alberta brownouts" and I get heaps of news articles about numerous brownouts with plants going offline. There must be something systematically different between power generation in Alberta versus the other three western provinces.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Acajack

This can happen anywhere from time to time so not to bash on Alberta especially, but even so it's not guaranteed that the standard of living that we've enjoyed all our lives will always be available to us.

As a Canadian I never really even thought about this until fairly recently.

Don’t recall it ever happening in B.C….

[thewave46]

Fluke things do happen with power grids.

The type of pricing system and regulatory environment of electrical grids plays into it.

Purely market-based systems with lower regulatory burden achieve greater cost reductions under optimal scenarios, but they are more prone to failure or price inelasticity under non-optimal conditions. See: Texas power crisis during cold snap.

That, and companies can game the market if it is set up poorly. California learned that the hard way.

Alberta’s free market electricity system seems to be having issues with expensive pricing, peak capacity issues, and reliability. Generally, several units tripping off simultaneously is an outlier event as grids are not optimized for multi-unit failures. Without large contingency reserve generation, this requires rapid start of peaker plants.

A deeper dive into the underlying issues seems to be merited.

[Hardhatdan]

It's not an end user friendly system. It's probably the worst of all worlds.

[Hackslack]

Is rolling brown outs a common occurrence in Alberta?

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

Is rolling brown outs a common occurrence in Alberta?

Alberta has had several high-profile incidents with its electricity system recently.

The cold snap of early January caused AESO to send out a mass text to reduce consumption. Fine, the cold puts strain on these things.

Electricity rates have spiked in the last few years. Alberta has some of the highest rates in the country now. The average rate as per this history was as low as 7 cents/kWh in June 2021 (see average RRO rate). It had spiked to >32cents/kWh in August 2023.

Now this brownout situation during a season not known for high electricity demand as multiple power stations tripped on a daily ramp-up of demand.

Individually considered, not necessarily a problem. As a whole? Starting to think there may be a systemic issue.