Layton love-in boosts locals
http://www.thespec.com/news/local/ar...-boosts-locals
Feeling orange yet?
Political pundits say the resurgence of the federal New Democrats in Quebec can’t help but make it easier to keep three Hamilton seats in the party fold.
And it threatens local Liberals, who used to wield tremendous power in the city.
Recent polls show the soaring popularity of NDP leader Jack Layton has the New Democrats rivalling the Liberals for second place and leading all federal parties in the previous political hinterlands of Quebec.
What does that mean in Hamilton?
McMaster University political scientist Henry Jacek expects to see the three NDP incumbents increase their pluralities while Liberal candidates struggle to stay second ahead of the Conservatives.
“It must be very demoralizing for the Liberals because they have been out of power for five years and now they look like they might be in their weakest situation since Confederation,” Jacek said.
And if the NDP makes history Monday night and becomes the official opposition, it makes Hamilton Centre longtime political lieutenant David Christopherson, should he win his seat, a major party power player, Jacek believes. One local pundit believes Christopherson is on a short list as a possible leadership successor for Layton.
Another political pundit, who asked not be named, said the Layton popularity won’t change the Hamilton political map. While the NDP will hold its seats, the boost of its leader should guarantee victory for Conservative David Sweet in Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale and Dean Allison in Niagara West-Glanbrook.
The pundit said NDP incumbents Chris Charlton and Wayne Marston will be the biggest beneficiaries of the orange surge and should each be able to hold off Tory challenges.
Charlton believes the party’s current popularity may help her beat back a Conservative charge from Terry Anderson in her Hamilton Mountain riding. And she feels it bodes well for the party nationally.
“We had 104 ridings in the last election where the NDP finished either first or second. Are a number of ridings in play? Of course there are.
“I know this is really good news. I know a lot of campaigns are feeling upbeat heading into the last week of the campaign. But I also know the other parties will be attacking us for the remainder of the week,” she said.
Alex Buck, a spokesperson for the Anderson campaign, said the NDP surge in Quebec hasn’t spread west. He said that is probably because most Ontarians still remember how unpopular Bob Rae was as Ontario premier.
“People in Ontario know better than to vote NDP,” he said.
Jon Kastikainen, campaign manager for Burlington Liberal candidate Alyssa Brierley, said Layton-mania hasn’t washed ashore at this end of Lake Ontario.
“I think you may have seen it in some parts of the country where there are a couple of ridings the NDP has picked up, but here, people seem to realize the only way to stop Harper is to vote Liberal,” he said.
kpeters@thespec.com
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