Provincial Politics

[statbass]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

I have a complete district-by-district prediction with commentary and map ready to go and share/post. I'm holding out until tomorrow to post it in case one last opinion poll gets published between now and election day. My predictions were....uh....interesting to say the least. They're based off of opinion polling, incumbency, popularity of elected MHAs and/or their opponents, as well as district voting habits.

Impressive! I'm looking forward to reading it. Marty, you could be the NL Nate Silver!

Just wondering, what sources did you use for MHA popularity vs opponent? I would imagine this would be the hardest to source out of the list above.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by statbass

Impressive! I'm looking forward to reading it. Marty, you could be the NL Nate Silver!

Just wondering, what sources did you use for MHA popularity vs opponent. I would imagine this would be hard to source.

It's a guess to be honest, but I weighed several factors when considering popularity:

- For challengers, are they well-known already in NL politics? If not in politics, are they a big name already in the community? (This metric really only came up once or twice)

- For incumbents, are they cabinet ministers or back-benchers? The publicity that cabinet ministers receive often give them an up-tick in popularity in their districts. This factor weights a lot more in some of my riding predictions.

[statbass]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

It's a guess to be honest, but I weighed several factors when considering popularity:

- For challengers, are they well-known already in NL politics? If not in politics, are they a big name already in the community? (This metric really only came up once or twice)

- For incumbents, are they cabinet ministers or back-benchers? The publicity that cabinet ministers receive often give them an up-tick in popularity in their districts. This factor weights a lot more in some of my riding predictions.

A solid approach. It seems like you put a good bit of thought around it. I think the cabinet vs back bencher probably takes up most of the correlation in this metric.

I was looking through the list of incumbents on Elections NL a few nights ago. It was amusing (and a little sad actually) that many of these MHAs I've never heard a peep about over the last 4 years. To be honest, the only back benchers I remembered are the ones that were involved in scandals of the sort.

[Marty_Mcfly]

2019 Newfoundland Election Projections




1. Torngat Mountains

LIB: Randy Edmunds (INC)
PC: Lela Evans

Prediction: Liberal hold

Comments: This is a fairly Liberal district, so I’m not expecting any breakthroughs here.


2. Labrador West

LIB: Graham Leto (INC)
PC: Derick Sharon
NDP: Jordan Brown

Prediction: Liberal hold

Comments: Very interesting district. The Liberals have a long history of coming in last place here, especially in recent time. Used to be a PC stronghold district, with sporadic NDP MHA’s. However, Graham Leto seems to be very popular in the region, so I’m not expecting any change.


3. Lake Melville

LIB: Perry Trimper (INC)
PC: Shannon Tobin
IND: Jim Learning

Prediction: Liberal hold

Comments: Perry Trimper is the speaker of the house. I can’t see him going anywhere soon.


4. Cartright – L’Anse au Clair

LIB: Lisa Dempster (INC)
IND: Michael Normore

Prediction: Liberal hold

Comments: One of the safest Liberal seats in the province. This riding has only elected a non-Liberal candidate twice: The Labrador Party in 1972, and an Independent Yvonne Jones in 1996. The PC’s couldn’t even crack 28% of the vote during the height of the Danny Williams days.


5. St. Barbe-L’Anse Aux Meadows

LIB: Christopher Mitchelmore (INC)
PC: Shelia Fitzgerald
IND: Ford Mitchelmore

Prediction: Liberal hold

Comments: This relatively new district combines parts the old districts of St. Barbe and The Straights-White Bay North, the later of which had only ever elected a non-Liberal twice in history: 1 PC, and an NDP MHA by the name of Christopher Mitchelmore. This is his district.


6. Humber-Gros Morne

LIB: Dwight Ball (INC)
PC: Greg Osmond

Prediction: Liberal hold

Comments: Not much to say here, the Liberals aren’t polling low enough to worry about their own leader and the Premier of the province to lose his seat.


7. Humber-Bay of Islands

LIB: Brian Dicks
PC: Michael Patrick Holden
NDP: Shawn A. Hodder
IND: Eddie Joyce (INC)

Prediction: Liberal GAIN

Comments: Tough one to call. Eddie Joyce could actually pull this off, especially since a large number of people working for the Liberal party in the district resigned to help Joyce’s campaign. If the PC’s wanted to make inroads on the west coast, they’d be hoping for the split of the left wing vote. However I don’t think there are enough PC voters to take advantage. Liberals squeak out a close one, but my bold prediction (maybe not so bold?) is if Joyce doesn’t win this district he comes in 2nd place. He could also be the critical piece to any minority government.


8. Stephenville-Port aux Port

LIB: John Finn (INC)
PC: Tony Wakeham

Prediction: Progressive Conservative GAIN

Comments: Tony Wakeham is probably the strongest PC candidate on the west coast. There’s a feeling that John Finn hasn’t been able to do much for his district. Whether that’s true or not I’m not sure, but if Tony is going around making promises to build new Bay St. Georges medical clinic, people might buy into him.


9. Corner Brook

LIB: Gerry Byrne (INC)
PC: Tom Stewart
NDP: Mary B. Feltham
IND: Wayne Bennett

Prediction: Liberal hold

Comments: Former MP, highly popular politician, current cabinet minister. No contest.


10. St. Georges-Humber

LIB: Scott Reid (INC)
PC: Tom O’Brien
NLA: Shane Snook

Prediction: Liberal hold

Comments: The previous districts which make up the current day St. Georges-Humber liked to switch back and forth between red and blue, even against the political grain at some points in history. That being said, Scott Reid is fairly well regarded, and have worked at some high levels both provincially and federally for the Liberal party. Likely hold.


11. Burgeo-La Poile

LIB: Scott Andrews (INC)
PC: Deborah Ann Turner

Prediction: Liberal hold

Comments: Another extremely safe Liberal district. The last time a PC was elected here was back in 1985. Yes, they weathered the entire Danny Williams era without electing someone to his government. Ches Crosbie won’t be able to dethrone Scott Andrews.


12. Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune

LIB: Elvis Loveless
PC: Charlene Walsh

Prediction: Liberal GAIN

Comments: Extremely tough to call. Incumbent PC Tracey Perry isn’t re-running after a lengthy stay in government. She was able to fight off the tide of change in 2015 and held the only PC seat off of the Avalon. If she was running again I’d give this a PC hold, otherwise it’s a tossup. I’m going to give the edge to the Liberals, even though this could honestly go any other way.


13 Grand Falls Windsor-Buchans

LIB: Al Hawkins (INC)
PC: Chris Tibbs

Prediction: Progressive Conservative GAIN

Comments: This is where things start to get interesting for both parties. Al Hawkins is a cabinet minister and former mayor of Grand Falls. History for the district and predecessors show no real trend towards one party or another. If polls are to be believed, PC’s are outpolling the Liberals in Central NL. If that’s true, I’m predicting an upset here. It’ll be close though.


14. Baie Verte-Green Bay

LIB: Brian Warr (INC)
PC: Neville Robinson
NLA: Ben Callahan

Prediction: Progressive Conservative GAIN

Comments: A traditionally PC district that went Liberal in the 2015 election. If you’re looking for a fun fact for this district, the PC’s held onto power here for 11 years between 1980 and 1991, and then gave it up for 2 years (ie 1 election cycle), and then flipped back to the PCs in 1993 and held it for 22 years.


15. Exploits

LIB: Jerry Dean (INC)
PC: Pleaman Forsey
IND: Gloria Cooper

Prediction: Progressive Conservative GAIN

Comments: Pleaman Forsey is the brother of former PC MHA, and very popular Clayton Forsey. On top of polling numbers for central, I think name recognition gets him elected. It’s worth noting that Jerry Dean himself only beat Clayton Forsey by 200 votes in the 2015 election when a red wave was sweeping the province.


16. Lewisporte-Twillingate

LIB: Derek Bennett (INC)
PC: Krista Freake

Prediction: Progressive Conservative GAIN

Comments: Another district with a strong PC background, though not as strong as Baie Verte. This is situated in the bible belt of the island. I’m expecting a flip here as well.


17. Fogo Island-Cape Freels

LIB: Derrick Bragg (INC)
PC: Sue Collins

Prediction: Liberal hold

Comments: A strong Liberal district, this is where Joey Smallwood ran (and got elected) under the NL Reform Liberal Party. I think this is a district that bucks the trend of PC flips. The PC’s coming in here and flipping the district without an overwhelming tide of change backing it would be a huge warning sign to the Liberal party.


18. Gander

LIB: John Haggie (INC)
PC: Ryan Wagg

Prediction: Liberal hold

Comments: As much as I want to give this to the PC’s based off of polling numbers in central, John Haggie is a well-respected member of the Liberal caucus. The district of Gander seems to only flip when government is about to change, so either it’s a hold or we’re in for a huge shock.
EDIT (MAY 15): There are rumblings in the Gander area about what is seen as the Liberals backing out of their plan to establish the centre of the provinces aerospace industry in Gander and instead doing so in St. John’s. The government has denied this, but this looks to be gaining traction in the area. This could turn the tides in the district, though I’m going to hold with my previous prediction.


19. Bonavista

LIB: Neil King (INC)
PC: Craig Pardy

Prediction: Progressive Conservative GAIN

Comments: Another PC stronghold district that flipped in 2015. Equally as impressive as Baie Verte, this district was held by the PC’s for 18 years (1971-1989), flipped for 4 years, and then was held again by the PC’s for another 22 years (1993-2015). Predicting that it flips back to the status quo.


20. Terra Nova

LIB: Colin Halloway (INC)
PC: Lloyd Parrott
NLA: Barry Moore

Prediction: Progressive Conservative GAIN

Comments: Halloway squeaked out a victory in 2015 by only 54 votes, which Is not reassuring especially considering the central/eastern polling numbers. It’s worth noting that a large number of people who work at Come-by-Chance oil refinery reside in this district, and the PC’s opposition to the carbon tax may resonate with some of these voters.


21. Placentia West-Bellevue

LIB: Mark Browne (INC)
PC: Jeff Dwyer

Prediction: Progressive Conservative GAIN

Comments: Formed from the former heavy Liberal Bellevue and slightly less Liberal Burin-Placentia West. Strong PC and NDP candidates have been able to win and/or do well here, but Mark Browne’s association with extremely popular Judy Foote should be enough to get him re-elected.
EDIT (MAY 15): Word on the street is that the lawns of Marystown are paved with many more Dwyer signs than Browne. A Dwyer rally with Ches Crosbie was also very well attended last night. The Liberals may be concerned about this district as they have since had Paul Antle come out to suggest that the sale of the Marystown shipyard could be scrapped with a change in government. This district may be more interesting than I thought.
EDIT 2 (MAY 15): The Paul Antle fiasco has become a thing. I think this has left a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths. It could tip the balance, and I'm now predicting a PC gain in this district.


22. Burin-Grand Bank

LIB: Carol Ann Haley (INC)
PC: Bill Matthews

Prediction: Progressive Conservative GAIN

Comments: Carol Ann Haley has the same advantage as fellow Liberal Mark Browne in that she is well known for her association with Judy Foote. However, unlike Browne, Haley is running up against extreme popular former MHA and former MP in Bill Matthews. It’ll likely end up being close, but Matthews pulls out the victory.


23. Carbonear-Trinity-Bay de Verde

LIB: Steve Croker (INC)
PC: Jason Oliver
NDP: Kathleen Burt
IND: Edward Thomas Cole

Prediction: Liberal hold

Comments: Crocker decisively won this district in 2015, which shows no real preference for leaning Liberal or PC. Instead it tends to shift with the political tide. Hence this is a district to watch on election night. I’m predicting Liberal hold since Crocker won with such a wide margin last election that it would take a lot to fall from such high graces, especially for a cabinet minister.


24. Harbour Grace-Port de Grave

LIB: Pam Parsons (INC)
PC: Greg Littlejohn

Prediction: Liberal hold

Comments: Fairly strong Liberal district currently held by a popular MHA.


25. Harbour Main

LIB: Betty Parsley (INC)
PC: Helen Conway-Ottenheimer
NLA: Mike Cooze

Prediction: Progressive Conservative GAIN

Comments: A traditional PC district who’s PC candidate is the wife of popular conservative John Ottenheimer? This district is the PC’s for the taking, and if they can’t pull this one off there’s no hope at all for them this election.


26. Placentia-St. Mary’s

LIB: Sherry Gambin-Walsh (INC)
PC: Heidi Whelan
IND: Steve Thorne

Prediction: Progressive Conservative GAIN

Comments: Another traditional PC stronghold. This one is honestly tough for me to call, since Walsh is a popular cabinet minister and she could very well win this district decisively. Since polling numbers also suggest that the PC’s are ahead on the Avalon I’m giving the edge to the PC’s, though if the Liberals were to lose this district it’ll likely be by only a small margin.
EDIT (MAY 15): This district is giving me second thoughts. I feel like Walsh is a very popular MHA in the district, especially after the harassment scandal in the house. I’m sticking with my guns based off of generic polling numbers, but I don’t have a great feeling about this prediction.


27. Ferryland

LIB: Janice Ryan
PC: Loyola O’Driscoll
IND: Chris Molloy

Prediction: Progressive Conservative hold

Comments: One of the safest PC seats in the province, even with the incumbent not seeking re-election. A Liberal hasn’t held this district since 1971, and it may take that long again before another one is elected.


28. Conception Bay South

LIB: Kevin Baker
PC: Barry Petten (INC)
NLA: Warrick Butler

Prediction: Progressive Conservative hold

Comments: Fairly safe PC district, even though Petten only scraped by in 2015 with a victory of only around 200 votes. Petten has proven to be a popular MHA. It’s worth noting that between 1996 and 2019, the Liberals only held it for 1 year, and that may have had more to do with the popularity of Gen. Rick Hillier than the party itself.


29. Mount Pearl-Southlands

LIB: Hasan Hai
PC: Gillian Pearson
NDP: David Brake
IND: Paul Lane (INC)

Prediction: Liberal GAIN

Comments: This district certainly wouldn’t be considered a stronghold for the Liberals by any stretch of the imagination, but if they were to take it on election night it’s going to come down to the personal popularity of candidate Hasan Hai within the community. If the PC’s want to win this election though, they’re going to really need this district. I’m predicting the charisma of Hai resonates with the younger voters and he easily pulls it off.


30. Waterford Valley

LIB: Tom Osborne (INC)
NDP: Matthew Cooper

Prediction: Liberal hold

Comments: If the PC’s were able to get a candidate in this district, they may have had a chance as they have had historic success here. However, Tom Osborne’s personal popularity may have proved too much to beat.


31. Mount Pearl North

LIB: Nicole Kieley
PC: Jim Lester (INC)
NDP: Carol Reade
NLA: William Neville

Prediction: Progressive Conservative hold

Comments: Jim Lester is an extremely popular public figure in this district. He also has the advantage of only recently winning his by-election to take this seat. Not expecting any upsets here.


32. Topsail-Paradise

LIB: Patricia Hynes-Coates
PC: Paul Dinn (INC)
NLA: Lori Best-Moore

Prediction: Progressive Conservative hold

Comments: Dinn already defeated Coates four months ago in the districts by-election, and did so with over 60% of the vote. Not much has changed there, and the Alliance are a non-factor. No change expected in this district.


33. Conception Bay East-Bell Island

LIB: Cyril Hayden
PC: David Brazil (INC)

Prediction: Progressive Conservative hold

Comments: David Brazil has held this district for nearing 10 years and has always received over 55% of the popular vote, even in the face of the Liberal red wave in 2015. Also not anticipating any change in this district unless the PC party is in absolute peril.


34. Mount Scio

LIB: Sarah Stoodley
PC: Lloyd Power
NDP: Jason R. Mercer
NLA: Graydon Pelley

Prediction: Liberal GAIN

Comments: This could be one of the more interesting districts this election. With a fairly large number of young, student voters, the NDP have done well here in the past (they did elect Dale Kirby). However with the NDP in shambles, this likely comes down to the Liberals and PCs. Edge goes to the younger, more charismatic Liberal candidate over the PC, however this one will likely be close. Stoodley and Hasan Hai could be the beginnings of the new generation of the NL Liberal party.


35. St. John’s West

LIB: Siobhan Coady (INC)
PC: Shane Skinner
NDP: Brenda Walsh

Prediction: Liberal hold

Comments: Siobhan Coady is an extremely popular politician with an impressive background as a MP for the district. I don’t think either person running against her is popular enough to dethrone her, unless the blue wave is much stronger than we think.


36. St. John’s Centre

LIB: Seamus O’Keefe
PC: Johnathan Galgay
NDP: James ‘Jim’ Dinn

Prediction: Progressive Conservative GAIN

Comments: This is my insane bold prediction of the election. NDP Gerry Rogers held this district for quite some time, and I think that was more of a testament to her and not the party. There are a lot of young university types which could still vote for Dinn, even though he’s a relative unknown. That being said, I’m going with PC Johnathan Galgay based off of name recognition alone. The question that will decide whether he wins or not: when people hear his name, do they think good things or bad things about him? That opinion is likely very split.


37. St. John’s East-Quidi Vidi

LIB: George Murphy
PC: David Porter
NDP: Allison Coffin

Prediction: NDP hold

Comments: A usual NDP stronghold which is surprisingly weak at the moment. The absolute disaster of the current NDP party has me casting doubt as to whether they can actually win their new leaders own district. If Lorraine Michael were running there’d be no questions. The PC’s have poured a lot of resources into this district, but if it were to flip I could see it flipping to the Liberals, not the PCs.


38. Virginia Waters-Pleasantville

LIB: Bernard Davis (INC)
PC: Beth Crosbie
NDP: Jenn Dion

Prediction: Progressive Conservative GAIN

Comments: This one is tough for me, because Beth Crosbie has that name recognition that I was talking about with Galgay. Except her brother is the leader of the PC party, and her entire family lineage is entrenched in NL politics. Bernard Davis is also well known and well liked from his days as a city councilor. Complete tossup, could go either way, but I’m rolling with Beth Crosbie winning based off her family name. This is also the only district I changed after sleeping on it.


39. Windsor Lake

LIB: Bob Osborne
PC: Ches Crosbie (INC)
NDP: Tomas Shea

Prediction: Progressive Conservative hold

Comments: Leader of the PC party. Enough said.


40. Cape St. Francis

LIB: Michael Duffy
PC: Kevin Parsons (INC)
NDP: Peter Beck
NLA: Ryan Lane

Prediction: Progressive Conservative hold

Comments: The STRONGEST PC district in the province. This district has NEVER elected any other party since its formation in 1966. The day a Liberal gets elected in this district is the day that hell freezes over. I don’t think that day is Thursday.

TOTALS:

LIB 19 (-8)
PC 20 (+12)
NDP: 1 (-1)

DISTRICTS TO WATCH
-Stephenville-Port aux Port
-Grand Falls-Windsor-Exploits
-Fortune-Cape La Hune
-Fogo Island-Cape Freels
-Burin-Grand Bank
-Placentia-St. Mary’s
-Mount Scio
-St. John’s Centre
-Virginia Waters-Pleasantville

[Marty_Mcfly]

So the above translates to a Liberal minority government. I suspect the NDP would then align itself with the PCs in the house to cause a deadlock and trigger another election. This time they can be ready to field a larger set of candidates.

[PoscStudent]

Won’t be able to get my full list prepared but some thoughts.

I think Haggie might lose, I’ve heard he’s behind which is surprising.
While I’d give the edge to Mitchelmore, Sheila Fitzgerald is going to give him a run for his money.
With all the controversy surrounding Mark Browne I think he loses. I doubt the Liberals want him now.
Eddie Joyce takes his district.
Paul Lane loses his district, but to Gillian Pearson.
Sherry Gambin Walsh holds her seat.
I’ve heard Glenn Littlejohn is ahead against Pam Parsons. That’ll be interesting to watch.
Mount Scio will go PC.
I think Bernie Davis holds his district.

[SignalHillHiker]

I think the Liberals will lose 3 or 4 seats, but still maintain their majority.

I hope Hai and Stoodley get in. I am very impressed with both of them.

In terms of specific predictions... I think Joyce has it in the bag, and Lane might pull off a second independent win. The Alliance won't win any seats but I think they'll get a surprising percentage of the vote in some districts.

In the core, I think the NDP will hold St. John's East-Quidi Vidi and possibly even St. John's Centre.

Central NL is where the Liberals will lose some seats. If it goes worse than I expect for them, I think Burin Peninsula is where they could lose. Matthews might beat Haley.

Davis holds his seat for sure. He's very well-liked there.

Parsons will probably get the biggest margin of victory in the province, especially since saying aloud on the news "I don't care" in relation to Townie families being uprooted by moving Marine Atlantic headquarters from the capital to Port aux Basques. That's blood in the water for voters out there.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Nice predictions. I'm still torn with Davis/B. Crosbie. If the PCs are truly making gains or if people in the district think the PCs will form government then I expect it to flip.

Placentia-St. Marys will give me nightmares tonight. Every inch of me thinks Walsh will win but I'm trusting the polling numbers more than my own heart.

[statbass]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Nice predictions. I'm still torn with Davis/B. Crosbie. If the PCs are truly making gains or if people in the district think the PCs will form government then I expect it to flip.

Placentia-St. Marys will give me nightmares tonight. Every inch of me thinks Walsh will win but I'm trusting the polling numbers more than my own heart.

Thanks for the analysis and commentary on your above post, Marty! You've put a lot of work into that. It's interesting to see that SHH has the liberals pegged to win another majority government. I think he may be in the minority camp on that one. But who knows... there's a lot of uncertainty in this election and anything can go. It's going to be very interesting to follow; I figure it will be a late night for some districts to finally decide a winner, very exciting!

Remember everyone - exercise your democratic right and vote tomorrow. Here's to a good voter turnout.

BTW... my prediction is a liberal minority. No real science behind it, just my opinion based on what I've been reading here and in the media.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Paul Antle dangling jobs in front of the Placentia West-Bellevue electorate and then threatening that they might disappear if the PC's were to win is the epitome of disgusting politics, and I feel like it might be backfiring. Along with the figure skating ticket fiasco I'm very tempted to make a late night change in that riding. That would mean changing my prediction from a Liberal minority to a PC minority.

EDIT: I changed it.

[Crisisnf]

I'll be happy for the end of the robocalls. Wait, theres an upcoming federal election, crap.

[Marty_Mcfly]

This was what I was waiting for before releasing my predictions, except they decided to release at 11:59 last night (ie the last moment possible):

Forum

PC: 47%
LIB: 38%
NDP: 7%
OTH: 8%

Seat projection

PC: 24
LIB: 14
NDP: 2

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2...ediction-2019/

If this is accurate, then we're on the way to a PC majority government.

If I had the mind to go back and change projections again, I would now flip Fortune Bay - Cape La Hune and Gander to PC Gains, and feel more comfortable with keeping Placentia-St. Mary's and Virginia Waters-Pleasantville as PC gains.

[statbass]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

This was what I was waiting for before releasing my predictions, except they decided to release at 11:59 last night (ie the last moment possible):

Forum

PC: 47%
LIB: 38%
NDP: 7%
OTH: 8%

Seat projection

PC: 24
LIB: 14
NDP: 2

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2...ediction-2019/

If this is accurate, then we're on the way to a PC majority government.

If I had the mind to go back and change projections again, I would now flip Fortune Bay - Cape La Hune and Gander to PC Gains, and feel more comfortable with keeping Placentia-St. Mary's and Virginia Waters-Pleasantville as PC gains.

Nah... stick with what you have, you've seemed to put a lot thought into it. There's always these last minute polls just to screw with people's heads IMHO. I read earlier that a poll from an Ottawa-based research group has Crosby winning the popular vote but Ball winning more seats.

Here's the link:
https://www.thetelegram.com/news/loc...brador-312154/

Hold on to your hats, folks!

[Marty_Mcfly]

Yeah that was the Mainstreet poll. Liberals winning seats in Labrador where there are relatively few people does leave the possibility open to such a thing happening.

I'm not changing my predictions anymore simply because I'm at work. It is what it is now, though I have a sneaking suspicion that Joyce will win. I have 25 bucks on the line against SHH in that one....I should probably get his information so I can get ready to send that e-transfer

[Architype]

I hope everyone has their fingernails all ready. It will be interesting.

[statbass]

There will be some interesting weeks and months to come, that's for sure! A couple upsets in Labrador turned out to be difference makers. The Liberals may have a tough time passing the budget now. Not sure what your accuracy rating was like, Marty. Looks like you lost that bet with SHH... Joyce won by quite a margin! LOL

[SignalHillHiker]

You were right statbass.

Interesting night. Hawkins is a big loss. Stoodley I suspect will prove a big win.

Ches' speech was bloody disgusting. We dodged a bullet there. What a petty man, clearly following the advice of the Devins of the world like the federal Conservative movement. That "concession" is all anyone is talking about at work today.

Curious to see how this goes. There will have to be some pork added to the budget to keep Liberal backbenchers in line and win over the NDP and Independents. But I do suspect it will work better and longer than we expect. Dwight is a genuinely kind, good man. His indecisiveness could be an asset in a minority government.

Shocked by the NDP. Alison should be very pleased.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by statbass

There will be some interesting weeks and months to come, that's for sure! A couple upsets in Labrador turned out to be difference makers. The Liberals may have a tough time passing the budget now. Not sure what your accuracy rating was like, Marty. Looks like you lost that bet with SHH... Joyce won by quite a margin! LOL

Reviewing it all now. Looks like I did a decent job getting the Liberal seat count within 1, though the NDP and Independents outperformed my expectations (and yes, Joyce absolutely smoked his district.....I owe SHH haha). My reliance on the polling did come back to haunt me in a few districts in central, and Placentia-St. Mary's where I should have just went with my gut. Looks like I accurately predicted the PC pickups (minus Torngat) and a few of the Liberal pickups (Fortune-Cape La Hune, Mount Scio)

Labrador was a large swerve ball. The NDP picking up Lab West isn't a huge shocker I guess, but the PCs flipping Torngat.....if anyone had predicted that I would have called them nuts.

A few of the other districts I had predicted to be PC gains that didn't flip, only Grand Bank-Burin was close (I really thought Bill Matthews could pull it off), the other 3 were decisive victories for the Liberals (Baie Verte-Green Bay, Lewisporte-Twillingate, and Virginia Waters-Pleasantville).

[Larla77]

What a wild election. And man Crosbie's speech last night was cracked. Honestly I hope the Liberals, NDP and the Independents can hold it together for a year or two anyways to get something done. The last thing most people want right now is another election with the same cast of characters. Esp with a federal election (that will be down right nasty) on the horizon. If one of the independents is speaker (hearing Paul Lane's name bandied about) then the Liberals hold a defacto majority as the speaker can't vote unless there is a tie. There are serious issues facing this province and they all need to work together if we're going to drag ourselves out of this mess. Sadly hard decisions need to be made and I don't know if any of them have the balls to make them.

[statbass]

Originally Posted by Larla77

What a wild election. And man Crosbie's speech last night was cracked. Honestly I hope the Liberals, NDP and the Independents can hold it together for a year or two anyways to get something done. The last thing most people want right now is another election with the same cast of characters. Esp with a federal election (that will be down right nasty) on the horizon. If one of the independents is speaker (hearing Paul Lane's name bandied about) then the Liberals hold a defacto majority as the speaker can't vote unless there is a tie. There are serious issues facing this province and they all need to work together if we're going to drag ourselves out of this mess. Sadly hard decisions need to be made and I don't know if any of them have the balls to make them.

Governance has changed dramatically is the past 24 hours. Dwight has gone from a majority where any budget or bill proposed by the Liberals would get passed with no issues to now having to rely on the opposition for consensus.

He'll get no help from the PCs and Eddie Joyce. I think it may be a tough sell for Paul Lane... he's been at odds with Ball since defecting; albeit it'll be an easier time with him instead of Joyce. That leaves the NDP... the potential difference makers IMO. The irony is that these three seats are probably the strongest seats the NDP have ever held in NL!