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  #41  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2023, 10:35 AM
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Originally Posted by casper View Post
Just helping to point out it is a global trend. Europe, UK, Australia, etc. we are all hitting demographic challenges of an aging population and the need to dramatically increase our population.

Japan is a good example of what happens when you don't address the problem head on through immigration. You may end up with an over supply of housing but it comes with major economic problems.

The Americans have a uniquely American solution. They depend on illegal immigration. The illegal construction works then hang out in the local Home Depot parking lot looking for day work. It works for them, but the ethics can be a bit questionable.
Sigh.

We've been over this. The most frustrating thing about this discussion is that you never acknowledge the data and instead choose to repeat the same ignorant takes over and over again.

The Americans are not any more dependent on illegal immigration than we are on NPRs and TFWs. Far less so, actually. The ethics of their illegal immigration is also not any more questionable than our treatment of NPRs (which was recently compared to contemporary slavery by the UN). We are also building more per capita than the USA.

Its like I keep mentioning, which you conveniently ignored once again, is that the degree of the problem is far worse in Canada than it is in other countries. Housing unaffordability might be a global trend, but there are only 6 countries in the world where housing has nearly doubled in price over the last decade. The UK (23% growth), Australia (43% growth), and most of Europe are not amongst those countries. Canada is (90% growth). Think about that: housing in Canada has appreciated at a rate twice that of Australia and four times that of the UK. These are not the same problems. Ignoring that fact ignores the reasons for why our crisis is so much worse.
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Last edited by theman23; Oct 25, 2023 at 11:07 AM.
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  #42  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2023, 11:08 AM
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Statscan has a nice data visualizer of popn that shows the different components of growth pretty clearly. I've shown here only the 4th quarter to smooth out the data.


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...019036-eng.htm

Through the 2000s it was relatively stable between 20k-30k for the fourth quarter. It doubled in 2017, and then shot up again in 2019. There's an obvious dip in 2020 (but only back to normal levels for the 2000s) but shooting back up to 220k last fall, a 10x increase!

Let me repeat that, a 10-fold increase in growth over the course of 5 years!?! And they have the audacity to play dumb on housing? I don't know how anyone could look at that graph and not conclude that this government has been astonishingly reckless drawing in that many people without some sort of comprehensive national housing policy. What exactly are they trying to accomplish?!
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  #43  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2023, 1:56 PM
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I effing hate immigration. Can't afford to have kids so lets import people to continue the ponzi scheme! The graf is crazy. We have sacrificed future generations for what?! This country can go to hell for what I care now.
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  #44  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2023, 1:57 PM
DarkArconio DarkArconio is offline
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Honestly looking at that graph it makes it pretty clear you need to run the data with a three year window to smooth out the effects of the pandemic. Migration fell to zero in 2020 and 2022 looks like a catchup year. The real question is whether 2023 will see a reversion to the 2019-2022 mean or a continuation of the 2022 absolute number.

Re: the can't afford to have kids point - the data pretty clearly shows the problem is the opposite. Poor people have many kids, rich people have fewer. It's true all across the world and seems to be a consistent sociological effect. I'd love to see an example of a single rich country where the birth rate hasn't substantially fallen as it's gotten richer. Immigration seems the only way to avoid the massive draining of the workforce that's occurring in China, South Korea, and Japan.
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  #45  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2023, 2:02 PM
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Originally Posted by DarkArconio View Post
Honestly looking at that graph it makes it pretty clear you need to run the data with a three year window to smooth out the effects of the pandemic. Migration fell to zero in 2020 and 2022 looks like a catchup year. The real question is whether 2023 will see a reversion to the 2019-2022 mean or a continuation of the 2022 absolute number.

Re: the can't afford to have kids point - the data pretty clearly shows the problem is the opposite. Poor people have many kids, rich people have fewer. It's true all across the world and seems to be a consistent sociological effect. I'd love to see an example of a single rich country where the birth rate hasn't substantially fallen as it's gotten richer. Immigration seems the only way to avoid the massive draining of the workforce that's occurring in China, South Korea, and Japan.
I mean, intl immigration had already tripled before the pandemic and far outstripped the decline in natural growth, so it's not like they had any real lost ground to make up.

I also doubt that the drop in natural growth can solely be attributed to increased prosperity. Declining birth rates is a long-term trend, but population growth overall has generally counteracted that so that overall natural increases in population have been fairly stable. We are seeing instead a dramatic change in the last ten years. Partially that can be attributed to aging in the population, but the drop in the births (20-25% it seems) is surprising to me as baby boomers aged out of childbearing well over ten years ago. What that tells me is that as Gen X exits their child bearing years, the resulting drop in births is not being counteracted by the much much larger cohort entering them. Why that is remains to be seen, but all signs point to millenials waiting much longer to start families, in large part due to economic concerns.

Last edited by jamincan; Oct 25, 2023 at 2:12 PM.
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  #46  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2023, 2:19 PM
p_xavier p_xavier is offline
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Originally Posted by DarkArconio View Post
Honestly looking at that graph it makes it pretty clear you need to run the data with a three year window to smooth out the effects of the pandemic. Migration fell to zero in 2020 and 2022 looks like a catchup year. The real question is whether 2023 will see a reversion to the 2019-2022 mean or a continuation of the 2022 absolute number.

Re: the can't afford to have kids point - the data pretty clearly shows the problem is the opposite. Poor people have many kids, rich people have fewer. It's true all across the world and seems to be a consistent sociological effect. I'd love to see an example of a single rich country where the birth rate hasn't substantially fallen as it's gotten richer. Immigration seems the only way to avoid the massive draining of the workforce that's occurring in China, South Korea, and Japan.
Not being able to afford a house is a major issue to not having kids. There were many polls on this. We're in a Universe 25 situation in a way. Rich people not having kids, poor people want to have kids but can't afford. Collapse of modern civilization.
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  #47  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2023, 3:17 PM
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Originally Posted by DarkArconio View Post
The real question is whether 2023 will see a reversion to the 2019-2022 mean or a continuation of the 2022 absolute number.
This is only a real question to the people not paying attention. The numbers have been posted numerous times. 2023 will surpass 2022. As of June, our population was up 1.2 million YoY compared to 2022. We had 1.5 million net new NPRs on July 1, 2023 compared to the same time last year. The numbers will only go up because late summer and fall is when international students typically arrive.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...0927a-eng.htm#
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  #48  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2023, 4:10 PM
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In a shrinking world, the countries most attractive to immigrants will come out on top.

We must invest in encouraging more family formation and growth, same as must every single other rich and middle income country. Nobody has cracked this code as of yet.

We must also welcome the best and brightest of the world to our lands to help take care of our aging native born population while growing our economy.

That said all of that is moot if we fail to solve our housing crisis. We must make it easy and cheap to build high quality, dense, spacious housing for everyone interested. We must not sacrifice the future of our country to the current landowning class's balance sheets.
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  #49  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2023, 4:30 PM
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Originally Posted by casper View Post
Just helping to point out it is a global trend. Europe, UK, Australia, etc. we are all hitting demographic challenges of an aging population and the need to dramatically increase our population.

Japan is a good example of what happens when you don't address the problem head on through immigration. You may end up with an over supply of housing but it comes with major economic problems.

The Americans have a uniquely American solution. They depend on illegal immigration. The illegal construction works then hang out in the local Home Depot parking lot looking for day work. It works for them, but the ethics can be a bit questionable.
LOL, Canada should be so lucky to have Japan's "major economic problems". the world's third largest economy with a shrinking population, not bad.
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  #50  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2023, 5:24 PM
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There is actually a middle ground in this debate; indeed, it was pretty much government policy pre-2017.

A sign of stale thinking is that doubling down is the only avenue or solution to any problem. To wit, the Detroit 3 of the early 1970s continued to make ever larger V8 engines for their increasingly large and heavy cars. They only realized that the VW Golf/Honda Accord (compact front-drive, four-cylinder cars) were the future far after the fact and had to reinvent themselves hugely at great cost.

Immigration is a good thing if the policy is implemented well and its effects are balanced against the other demands of the host society. It can be a bad thing if doubling down has the effect of creating backlash as the downsides breed resentment from the locals.

In Canada's case, the fallout of higher interest rates on the housing market (its own can of worms) would have been somewhat absorbed by people shifting to renting. However, the high immigration rate has caused a spike in the price of rent, as most newcomers aren't buying houses. Now the disenchanted locals are going to lose their house, and get fleeced on rent. It will be ugly.

Ugly populism doesn't arise from contented people and out of nowhere. It is the reaction to bad/tone-deaf policy.
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  #51  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2023, 5:42 PM
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Originally Posted by jamincan View Post
I mean, intl immigration had already tripled before the pandemic and far outstripped the decline in natural growth, so it's not like they had any real lost ground to make up.

I also doubt that the drop in natural growth can solely be attributed to increased prosperity. Declining birth rates is a long-term trend, but population growth overall has generally counteracted that so that overall natural increases in population have been fairly stable. We are seeing instead a dramatic change in the last ten years. Partially that can be attributed to aging in the population, but the drop in the births (20-25% it seems) is surprising to me as baby boomers aged out of childbearing well over ten years ago. What that tells me is that as Gen X exits their child bearing years, the resulting drop in births is not being counteracted by the much much larger cohort entering them. Why that is remains to be seen, but all signs point to millenials waiting much longer to start families, in large part due to economic concerns.
The drop in natural growth is only partly a drop in births (which has only fallen 9% from the recent peak in 2009). 2022 had the lowest number of births since 2006, with 351,659 births. It's not uniquely low - there were fewer births in the early 2000s. The population pyramid shows the number women of childbearing age is pretty consistent in each of the 5 year cohorts from 25 to 50 - there isn't a larger cohort entering their childbearing years. It's partly obviously economic factors delaying, or limiting the number of children that are being born, but it's also thought to be the disruptive impact of covid.

The drop in natural growth is the significant increase in deaths. That's been rising steadily over the past 20 years, mostly due to the ageing boomer and older generation dying. But again, covid has played a big part in the increase in 2020, and 2021. The preliminary death data indicate 2022 saw an even greater number of deaths, (26,000 more than in 2021), but 2023 has a slightly lower number. Up to June 2023 the data show around 6,000 fewer deaths in the first 22 weeks of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022, which, if confirmed, is the first drop for several years.
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  #52  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2023, 7:16 PM
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Comparing the housing crisis (or at least, the prices and incomes) in Sydney to Vancouver is a valid comparison. Your income data is way off. The link you give to the Australian census shows the median weekly household income was $2,077. That's $108,000 $Aus per year, which in 2021 conversion rates was about $100,000 CAD (and more like $94,000 today). The Greater Vancouver median household wage in 2021 was $90,000, so only about 10% lower than Sydney.

The average mortgage payment in Greater Vancouver in 2021 was $2,407, and the median mortgage repayment in 2021 in Greater Sydney was $2,427 $Aus ($2,184 CAD). So also only a modest difference.
There's another thing Sydney and Vancouver have in common, though the Aussies seem more willing to pursue it and less likely to botch the investigation:

Chinese gangsters accused of laundering $228m through business spruiked by ex-minister
By Nick McKenzie
October 25, 2023

A transnational crime syndicate is accused of laundering $228 million in dirty funds and tainted cryptocurrency via a money moving business spruiked by a former Howard government minister and allegedly secretly controlled by Chinese gangsters.

On Wednesday morning, Australian Federal Police officers from Operation Avarus-Nightwolf swooped on seven suspected Melbourne members of what agents called the “Long River” – an Australia wide crime syndicate – accusing them of serious financial crime....

It underscores the challenge facing police as they combat a vast sea of dirty funds smuggled out of China in breach of Beijing’s strict capital flight laws or that have been generated via suspected fraud, corruption or drug trafficking.

The latest arrests also raise a question being increasingly asked by Western officials: what is the role of the Chinese Communist Party in supporting or turning a blind eye to dirty money movement from China to the West?

A senior NSW law enforcement official, who was interviewed by this masthead about Chinese money laundering, said there was a reluctance to openly discuss the true suspected scale of the problem or the Chinese government’s apparent failure to tackle it.

“It is just out of control. It is a huge international issue and there are overseas state actors involved,” the official said a fortnight ago. “People pretend that this doesn’t impact on the cost of living and housing, but it does. We [state and federal agencies] pick off some players but much more resourcing and legislative change is needed.”

This masthead can also reveal that federal police and AUSTRAC intelligence describes how a network of Changjiang-linked money remitters were moving hundreds of millions of dollars every year, including “$1.26 billion ... between January and September 2020”....(bold mine)


https://www.smh.com.au/national/chin...25-p5eey8.html

PS spruiked: verb (used without object)Australian Slang.
to make or give a speech, especially extensively or elaborately; spiel; orate
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  #53  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2023, 8:54 PM
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'Scams and sketchy situations': Students struggle to find safe housing during B.C. rental crisis

Story by Glenda Luymes



Kamil Kanji, UBC AMS vice-president, said eight per cent of students in a recent survey indicated they lacked a fixed nighttime residence and had resorted to couch surfing, living on the streets, in a public space without consent or in an emergency shelter.





"Out of housing options, engineering student Andres Amare sought advice on how to live in his car outside the B.C. Institute of Technology in Burnaby.

“It seems like I am going to be homeless soon,” he posted on Reddit in early October. “I have never been homeless before, so if there are any tips for that, or information about resources I could access, I would appreciate the info.”

He went on to lay out his plan: He would sleep in his car, shower in the gym and use the washroom in the library. He’d eat beans and ramen noodles. If he could just make it through the school year, he’d be able to get a job as a technician and earn enough money to afford housing."

“I save as much as I can,” Amare said in an interview. “I use the food bank, but I still go hungry. It’s been awful.”

With near-zero rates and soaring rents, students are among those struggling to find a place to live in B.C.’s pressure-cooker rental market.

Full article

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canad...1iLtge#image=1
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  #54  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2023, 9:18 PM
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Traditionally here, our homeless have been mostly invisible - couch-surfing, shelters, etc. It was EXTREMELY rare to see anyone sleeping rough, ever, anywhere in the city. That was worthy of calling 9-11.

Now... every block of Water Street has a person or two sleeping in the sheltered entrance of one building or another. And tent cities have sprung up. They were pretty quiet at first, and hidden - for example, tucked under bridges over forested riverside trails, etc. But that changed a few weeks ago when a group of homeless people set up their tent city on Confederation Hill, just outside Confederation Building.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfo...-two-1.6991586

That, of course, got the media's attention, as well as politicians. It provoked a government scandal where the relevant Minister touted a number of new housing options, other Ministers repeated the number, but it wasn't the number built - it was just the number in some stage of consideration.

The people in the homeless camp were offered access to shelters, etc., trying to shuffle them out of the spotlight. The Royal Newfoundland Constabulary did or did not take down tents without people in them, and the people could or could not collect their belongings later - I never do understand the back and forth they get on with in the media, except that we clearly have VERY heavy-handed police who can be counted on to make headlines with actions in any social injustice situation.

BUT... these people weren't afraid to say the shelters weren't good enough, some had absolutely no supports, some are slums, most are run by religious nutjobs or fur-coat wearing landlords bedazzled in gold rings (literally). So they're remaining the squeaky wheel until this is fixed for real in terms of us having acceptable shelters that provide guidance for accessing the services and supports that already exist.

We're talking about fewer than 1,000 people, surely, who need this intense level of support here. We can fucking afford it. And kudos to them for not shutting up.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfo...aint-1.7007630

Quote:
...

Jim Dinn, head of the N.L. NDP who has been outspoken both inside and outside of the House of Assembly about what he calls a housing crisis in the province, shared pictures of the unit with The Telegram, highlighting the poor living conditions.

"Why does it take the media to get the government to react?" Dinn said. "I understand now that they've sent people in to clean the place. That should have been done at the beginning when they promised solutions."

The house is privately owned, and the province pays its owner directly to house people there. Dinn says he opposes that model and instead advocates for non-profit, community-based housing.

"We spent, I think, $10.5 million on emergency shelters, half of which was on for-profit shelters," he said. "I can't help but think of the money that could have been used to build affordable homes, that's the first thing, or to set up shelters."

The interview was abruptly stopped when police officers marched to Peddle's housing unit and asked to speak with her. Police cars were at the scene shortly after CBC News arrived.

"I've been here for two days and there is already a complaint?" Peddle asked the police officer. The officer refused to speak with her in front of the media, so they walked inside the house.

Dinn, who watched the scene unfold, said, "I didn't quite expect that it would end up with the police being brought in. If this is part of the deal, there's something terribly wrong here."

Later, Peddle said the police were called by the owner to ask her to leave the property and allow the cleaners to do their work.

Another person from the tent encampments, Steven Black, also moved in two days ago with his son, but into the basement unit. He says the conditions downstairs are worse.

"The oven isn't working," he said as he led reporters into the basement. He tapped the walls, saying, "Look at this, all sheets of plywood. It's a fire hazard."

There was a sign on the wall of the bathroom that said "out of order." Black said it had been there since they arrived.

The woman who owns the house came downstairs and told reporters to leave. Then a physical altercation occurred between her and Black.

Peddle said she was informed that this unit would be temporary before transitioning to a permanent unit. However, she says that she won't leave until she has spoken with N.L. Housing, otherwise she will return to living in a tent.

"This is why I didn't want to go into shelters. That's why I was in a tent in the first place, because I don't want to be shifted around," she said.

Peddle said she has been living in tents for months and is looking forward to a place where she can live with her 14-year-old son, who is currently in foster care.

Reporters at Confederation Building requested an interview with Housing Minister Paul Pike but a spokesperson declined, saying Pike was in a meeting.
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  #55  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2023, 9:45 PM
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Typical of what challenges local municipalities need to deal with.

This development was proposed in the Victoria area. Typical five story building. Nothing overly notable. It is going on a major road in an area that is planned for higher density. It would create 104 units and replace 3 single family homes. Abstract is a well respected developer in Victoria.

Source: ABSTRACT DEVELOPMENTS, published by Times Columnist.

The local council had a 4 hour pre-application hearing. Residents were concerned about the size, traffic, the impact on a nearby part and nature area,

One resident in response to the provincial government order to the municipal government to build more homes said: “The order from the province is not a corresponding invitation to make our neighborhoods less safe, cut down urban forests, disregard our values and change our neighbourhoods,”

So, what happens. The council tells the developers, there are a few Gary Oaks in the corner of one of the lots, change the design to save those trees. Come back to us.

Looks like the municipal government is also pushing them to add some three bedroom units. It is mostly two bedrooms.

I think we are going to see this play out over and over across the country. If provinces continue to place targets on municipal governments approving higher density. Image the reaction of this was a 10 story building. Honestly, it should be a 10 story building.

Source: https://www.timescolonist.com/local-...roject-7731800
Looking at the street view, I see it is not in a high-rise neighbourhood, so 10 storey would be leap for the neighbourhood. It is also on the periphery of the city, not near any workplaces or retail, and on a major road that runs perpendicular to the downtown.

There is a lake directly inbetween the neighbourhood and the downtown, so any development there would be isolated. There is also a freeway with an interchange that cuts through the neighbourhood that will interfere with pedestrian activity and cycling and transit. The lake and the freeway interchange together will limit further development of the neighbhourhood.

Honestly, I would not recommend high density at such a location. It is not a mixed use neighbhourhood, it is not on a major transit corridor direct to downtown, and it is located beside a freeway interchange and a big park.
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  #56  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2023, 1:58 AM
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Looking at the street view, I see it is not in a high-rise neighbourhood, so 10 storey would be leap for the neighbourhood. It is also on the periphery of the city, not near any workplaces or retail, and on a major road that runs perpendicular to the downtown.

There is a lake directly inbetween the neighbourhood and the downtown, so any development there would be isolated. There is also a freeway with an interchange that cuts through the neighbourhood that will interfere with pedestrian activity and cycling and transit. The lake and the freeway interchange together will limit further development of the neighbhourhood.

Honestly, I would not recommend high density at such a location. It is not a mixed use neighbhourhood, it is not on a major transit corridor direct to downtown, and it is located beside a freeway interchange and a big park.
It is a weird one. The neighborhood is in transition. There are two approximately 10 story high-rises going in across the street.
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  #57  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2023, 5:23 AM
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Yes, on the street view, I can see signs advertising another 7-8 storey condo development across the street. Behind that I also see existing 9-10 storey towers but they are almost completely hidden from the street. The towers appear to be accessible only from the rear via a private road, Rainbow Hill Lane. 9-10 storey condo towers on a private road, and only accessible by that private road. Yikes.

One storey residential buildings located along a busy road don't stay residential for very long, and eventually they get demolished for higher density. But maybe there can be too high density beside a freeway interchange and a nature sanctuary far from any street that leads to or from downtown.

If they really want to increase density, Victoria needs to take charge and come up with their own actual plans for these neighbourhoods. Just letting developers build a private community with private roads, the city obviously has had a very hands-off approach thus far. If anything, the city has not been controlling enough, it's actually the developers who have taken control in Victoria. Transitional neighbourhoods like this are an opportunity for the city to build something but the city isn't taking advantage, only the developers are taking advantage.
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  #58  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2023, 6:23 AM
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Yes, on the street view, I can see signs advertising another 7-8 storey condo development across the street. Behind that I also see existing 9-10 storey towers but they are almost completely hidden from the street. The towers appear to be accessible only from the rear via a private road, Rainbow Hill Lane. 9-10 storey condo towers on a private road, and only accessible by that private road. Yikes.

One storey residential buildings located along a busy road don't stay residential for very long, and eventually they get demolished for higher density. But maybe there can be too high density beside a freeway interchange and a nature sanctuary far from any street that leads to or from downtown.

If they really want to increase density, Victoria needs to take charge and come up with their own actual plans for these neighbourhoods. Just letting developers build a private community with private roads, the city obviously has had a very hands-off approach thus far. If anything, the city has not been controlling enough, it's actually the developers who have taken control in Victoria. Transitional neighbourhoods like this are an opportunity for the city to build something but the city isn't taking advantage, only the developers are taking advantage.
There are 13 municipalities in greater Victoria. Each has individual zoning controls and they don't good a good job of managing the area where they meet.

Private lanes like that are common. The condo I have is in just such a tower. Our is 8 stories and built in the 1970s.

Surprisingly there a lot of 5 story developments showing up all over the place. Some higher story buildings. Despite all of the construct ruction that city is not keeping up with demand.
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  #59  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2023, 6:41 AM
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Despite all of the construction that city is not keeping up with demand.

Canada's housing crisis in a nutshell. Doesn't matter how much or how fast we build when the demand is nearly infinite.
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  #60  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2023, 3:15 PM
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Canada's housing crisis in a nutshell. Doesn't matter how much or how fast we build when the demand is nearly infinite.
Yep. I keep pointing out that the current levels of what we call a “crisis” now are totally not anywhere near a crisis, when you look at what’s coming.

We keep importing crazy amounts of new suckers, way beyond our realistic ability to build (considering plenty of non-flexible limiting factors like land, labor, materials, capital), so the so-called “crisis” right now is going to keep worsening unless we dial down the Ponzi Scheme substantially.

(And even the probable next PM doesn’t seem to want to do that.)

In summary:
Right now Canadian rents are very cheap, compared to what’s coming;
Right now there’s barely any homelessness, compared to what’s coming.

Unless we change course, somehow.
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