Federal Government & Politics II

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by lio45

If JT wants to come to the Townships for a walk in our fresh snow dump I’m sure a lot of people would pay out of their pocket for his trip if it means he’ll resign at last!

(Quick, before it all melts!)

Seems unlikely.

Some kind of big swing for the fences seems like the next move.

UBI?

Merger or some other agreement with NDP?

[thewave46]

I haven't decided which is more annoying: Hacks mindlessly posting for the incumbent or hacks mindlessly posting for the opposition.

Not sure the new guy's going to exactly going to fix everything, because Bay Street and Wall Street are going to be setting the tone. The money men have always been the final say for government. Doubly so when said government and people are up to their eyeballs in debt.

Ultimately, the people just want 'more magic money' wand, and that time has come to an end. The good news is that we can mortgage the kids in exciting new ways for a good long time yet to keep the lights on for the old.

The honeymoon of the new guy will be brief, in all likelihood. We shall see if he's got the political moxie of Jean Chretien in the 1990s under pressure.

I'll give 3:1 odds against. Chretien knew how to shovel shit, as he did it for PET. Not sure the new guy has the constitution for doing what he'll need to do. The next scheme will be fun too and the kids will get to deal with the fallout of that.

[Marshsparrow]

Part of me actually wants to see Pierre win so we can be over the never-ending mob mentality tempur tantrums that have consumed Canada the last 4 years. We can then see the chaos that ensues. Pierre really gives me Liz Truss vibes - the Liberals and NDP can then find new leaders who perhaps will be hopeful and inspiring.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

Part of me actually wants to see Pierre win so we can be over the never-ending mob mentality tempur tantrums that have consumed Canada the last 4 years. We can then see the chaos that ensues. Pierre really gives me Liz Truss vibes - the Liberals and NDP can then find new leaders who perhaps will be hopeful and inspiring.

That's the plan. The status quo is unacceptable. The alternative is unimaginable. The only solution is to blow the whole damned thing up. Let PP have his 15 minutes in the sun, with rapid disillusionment, precipitous fall in popularity, calls for resignation and perhaps early election. Start over with a brand new slate in 2028-29 with extremely diluted representation from the Woketarian fringe on the left and the Reformist zealots on the right. Long live the competent political centre!!!!

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

That's the plan. The status quo is unacceptable. The alternative is unimaginable. The only solution is to blow the whole damned thing up. Let PP have his 15 minutes in the sun, with rapid disillusionment, precipitous fall in popularity, calls for resignation and perhaps early election. Start over with a brand new slate in 2028-29 with extremely diluted representation from the Woketarian fringe on the left and the Reformist zealots on the right. Long live the competent political centre!!!!

Agreed, though there will need to be a significant rebuilding job of that Centre in the future. It's become a desolate no-man's-land.

[kool maudit]

It will be a different centre. The previous centre (the "third way" of Clinton and Blair) was built to balance and incorporate constituencies from the 1970s and 80s.

[kool maudit]

"Socially liberal and fiscally conservative" was so clearly embedded in the context of baby boomers entering their wealth years. It was also a détente between Thatcher-era financial types and post-'68 university and institution people as they embarked on the great voyage of globalization. It won't be that again. I can't quite see the next thing, there is so much brush to clear, but it won't be exactly that.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by kool maudit

It will be a different centre. The previous centre (the "third way" of Clinton and Blair) was built to balance and incorporate constituencies from the 1970s and 80s.

That's an excellent point. We could be in for some big surprises. (Well, some of us anyway.)

[P'tit Renard]

A come to Jesus moment for a loyal Trudeau foot soldier based in Toronto:

https://twitter.com/andrewaperez/sta...60839169319093

Hits the bullseye on how most of us in Toronto feel (still can't understand Montreal's infatuation with the PLC at this time), especially since most of us did vote for Trudeau at least once ...

"I’m increasingly coming across small-l liberals in my broader professional and social networks that can no longer support the federal Liberal Party.

These are people that were reliable supporters of Trudeau’s Liberals in 2015, 2019, and in many cases, even in 2021.

The “Liberal drifters” — as I describe them — are overwhelmingly urban, socially progressive, professional class people. Many are LGBTQ+ and women. Yet they believe the party no longer represents them and their values, and even worse, are willing to roll the dice on Pierre Poilievre.

The reasons are far too numerous to innumerate here. But in a nutshell, our party — while meaning well — has too often prioritized virtue signalling over substance, failed to meaningfully address issues related to debt, deficit and economic growth, taken certain demographics for granted, and above all, not prioritized the affordability crisis with the political and policy urgency it demands."

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

That's the plan. The status quo is unacceptable. The alternative is unimaginable. The only solution is to blow the whole damned thing up. Let PP have his 15 minutes in the sun, with rapid disillusionment, precipitous fall in popularity, calls for resignation and perhaps early election. Start over with a brand new slate in 2028-29 with extremely diluted representation from the Woketarian fringe on the left and the Reformist zealots on the right. Long live the competent political centre!!!!

For the sake of this country's future, lets hope the Laurentian elite in the PLC isn't planning to anoint Xavier Trudeau as a future successor.

[ConundrumNL]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

That's the plan. The status quo is unacceptable. The alternative is unimaginable. The only solution is to blow the whole damned thing up. Let PP have his 15 minutes in the sun, with rapid disillusionment, precipitous fall in popularity, calls for resignation and perhaps early election. Start over with a brand new slate in 2028-29 with extremely diluted representation from the Woketarian fringe on the left and the Reformist zealots on the right. Long live the competent political centre!!!!

This is what I expect to happen. People want stability in their politics, not theatre.

JT and PP are different sides of the same coin, but just seem to want the power and will pander to their respective bases to achieve/maintain it, all while pushing through policy that largely benefits corporate and 1%er interests. The only difference JT panders with virtue signaling, PP with rage baiting.

People are tired of JT and are willing to give PP a go, but they'll quickly get sick of him as well. I wouldn't be shocked if a current Lib and CPC backbencher will emerge as centrist leaders towards the end of the decade.

[kool maudit]

You have to have a pretty good consensus or "centre" to run faces like that. People need to be able to say "but of course he will have an expert team behind him" and be using those words to mean the same thing.

[Truenorth00]

As the kids say, "He has no chill."

And yet he's besting Trudeau in the polls.

Charisma only seems to matter when two parties are neck and neck all things considered.

[kool maudit]

Originally Posted by ConundrumNL

People want stability in their politics, not theatre.

People want the future to be better than the past, and if there is a faction that can reliably promise that, they'll be granted a big fat mandate and it will feel stable.

If nobody can deliver that, people will absolutely want theatre, even if they wouldn't say it.

Reward your friends and punish your enemies.

In the absence of a rising tide that lifts all boats, people like that sort of thing.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by ConundrumNL

People are tired of JT and are willing to give PP a go, but they'll quickly get sick of him as well. I wouldn't be shocked if a current Lib and CPC backbencher will emerge as centrist leaders towards the end of the decade.

One can only hope and pray.

[hipster duck]

I actually wonder what will happen to the Liberal party after 2025. My guess is that they'll start crawling back and may force the Conservatives into a minority government in 2029, but I don't think they'll be the governing party. They may not even be the official opposition. It might be in their interest to anoint a disposable leader, a la Stephane Dion or Michael Ignatieff in 2025, and save the charismatic person to lead them to victory in the 2030s when the Conservatives are long in the tooth.

But the 2030s will be demographically different. They've really burned their bridges with millennials and Gen Z, and many of the older, boomer voters that have saved them will either be dead or in nursing homes.

I don't know who will form their base and what their priorities will be.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

I actually wonder what will happen to the Liberal party after 2025. My guess is that they'll start crawling back and may force the Conservatives into a minority government in 2029, but I don't think they'll be the governing party. They may not even be the official opposition. It might be in their interest to anoint a disposable leader, a la Stephane Dion or Michael Ignatieff in 2025, and save the charismatic person to lead them to victory in the 2030s when the Conservatives are long in the tooth.

But the 2030s will be demographically different. They've really burned their bridges with millennials and Gen Z, and many of the older, boomer voters that have saved them will either be dead or in nursing homes.

I don't know who will form their base and what their priorities will be.

I wouldn't ever count them out though. They've been extremely skillful at reinventing themselves multiple times in the past.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I wouldn't ever count them out though. They've been extremely skillful at reinventing themselves multiple times in the past.

I'm not counting them out. They will form government some time in the 2030s at the very least.

I just don't know if it will be a recognizable Liberal party. It will be like the Conservatives during Mulroney vs. the post Reform-merger Conservatives of the early 2000s.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

I'm not counting them out. They will form government some time in the 2030s at the very least.

I just don't know if it will be a recognizable Liberal party. It will be like the Conservatives during Mulroney vs. the post Reform-merger Conservatives of the early 2000s.

One possible scenario that could play out for the PLC is PSPP's meteoric rise which has led to the unexpected revival of PQ's fortunes. The same party that was written off as an old dinosaur just a few years ago for fighting the old federalist-sovereignist battles of yore.

So far there's no indication that PSPP has remade the PQ. He's just updated its public image to make the PQ "cool" again to the electorate.

[thewave46]

A lot of this will be beyond Canada's borders.

Absent a technological revolution, we enter an era of stagnation. The 20th century was a miracle because we had high levels of technological advancement that benefited a wide swath of society and population increase brought on by that advancement.

Here we are: the early 21st century. Do we have technological advancement on par with wide-scale electrification and the Green Revolution (agriculture) again? Probably not. Are we going to have another explosion of human population from 1.6 billion in 1900 to 6 billion in 1999? Probably not, given what fertility is doing globally.

The pie stays the same size, people get angrier about their slice. We will have to rethink some of the economic assumptions we hold as unquestionable truths.

That's really beyond the scope of the next government though. It's going to be the protracted process of getting there that will be fun. I suspect the generational turnover will be the kicker into the 2030s and 2040s.

Theatre's what one has left when you don't want to get into the ugly choices.