Stadiums & Arenas of Canada, Part 3

[ericmacm]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

Mid-year!? Holly crap! The timeline keeps being pushed back. At one point, they said January, then February, March. Now mid-year?

Of course, they want to do their due-diligence, let everyone evaluate the situation fully in order to place the best bid, but don't set unrealistic timelines... Are we talking about the sale of an NHL team or a transit project.

I’d imagine that a big part of it is whittling out the groups that don’t want to move forward at Lebreton Flats, which I would assume is within the NHL’s best interest since it will increase the franchise value if the Senators end up owning the arena project outright, as well as new potential revenue streams if hotel/residential development becomes part of the arena like what was shown in the renderings. Maximizing team-only franchise value is also probably a factor.

Setting a benchmark franchise value for a mid-market NHL team also has lots of implications for future league expansion. Last December it was indicated that the NHL is potentially mulling expansion again after seeing the massive increase in revenue generation that Vegas and Seattle have had for the league. Toronto 2, Austin, and Houston are flagged as the purported favourites at the moment - mainly Austin because it doesn’t have a Big 4 team yet and it is growing fast.

If the Senators sell for upwards of $700M, four new teams equals a direct injection of at least $2.8B into the league, and if the teams are successful revenue generators like Seattle/Vegas, revenue would increase by around $280M/year.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by ericmacm

I’d imagine that a big part of it is whittling out the groups that don’t want to move forward at Lebreton Flats, which I would assume is within the NHL’s best interest since it will increase the franchise value if the Senators end up owning the arena project outright, as well as new potential revenue streams if hotel/residential development becomes part of the arena like what was shown in the renderings. Maximizing team-only franchise value is also probably a factor.

This is almost certainly what they're doing. When you have as many groups interested as the Senators do it's simply a matter of doing due diligence and weeding out strong candidates from others. The opposite situation, one where there are many bids but the NHL quickly snaps for one bid, would be a bit of a red flag.

Originally Posted by ericmacm

Setting a benchmark franchise value for a mid-market NHL team also has lots of implications for future league expansion. Last December it was indicated that the NHL is potentially mulling expansion again after seeing the massive increase in revenue generation that Vegas and Seattle have had for the league. Toronto 2, Austin, and Houston are flagged as the purported favourites at the moment - mainly Austin because it doesn’t have a Big 4 team yet and it is growing fast.

MLS in Austin is doing quite well, all things considered. I know some will scoff at the idea of MLS being in the same realm of Big 4, but the entire notion of Big 4 is being mostly thrown away now that there's the NFL and everyone else. I'm fairly certain MLS is closer to NHL than the NHL is to the other three. Anyway. The NHL was wise to get into Vegas early and have reaped the rewards of doing so. There's still a chance for Austin but i'd be surprised if they bite on that over somewhere like San Diego.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by ericmacm

I’d imagine that a big part of it is whittling out the groups that don’t want to move forward at Lebreton Flats, which I would assume is within the NHL’s best interest since it will increase the franchise value if the Senators end up owning the arena project outright, as well as new potential revenue streams if hotel/residential development becomes part of the arena like what was shown in the renderings. Maximizing team-only franchise value is also probably a factor.

Setting a benchmark franchise value for a mid-market NHL team also has lots of implications for future league expansion. Last December it was indicated that the NHL is potentially mulling expansion again after seeing the massive increase in revenue generation that Vegas and Seattle have had for the league. Toronto 2, Austin, and Houston are flagged as the purported favourites at the moment - mainly Austin because it doesn’t have a Big 4 team yet and it is growing fast.

Hope that's the case. There really nowhere in Ottawa better suited for an arena than LeBreton. Two transit lines, three directions + just across the bridge from Gatineau. Various entertainment districts easily accessible within a 5 minute walk or O-Train ride.

How many teams can a league get before it's too much? We want to be able to play every team at least once, while keeping the multi-game rivalries. Hope Quebec City won't be passed-up again, but it probably will considering the high-cost of a franchise nowadays. A second Toronto area franchise would be welcome.

[MalcolmTucker]

I imagine that the NCC and the bidders are finding out fast how uneconomic event centres are to build and run. And how much development needs to go forward to provide a $200 million + cash injection. You have inflation, and interest rates sloshing around, and you have the NCC wanting assurance that the event centre is actually going forward before a bunch of land is handed over for development.

[MalcolmTucker]

^ The operating income difference, is that due to local cable deals? That is a massive difference!

[Acajack]

What are the territorial rights like in Texas, ie with the Dallas Stars? Asking because there is always lots of talk about the rights of the Leafs (Hamilton, GTA2), Sabres (Hamilton) and Habs (Quebec City).

[esquire]

At the risk of veering off topic, I wonder how much leagues can expand before they start hitting the wall?

In theory, what prevents the NFL, NHL, NBA, etc. from growing to 40, 60, 80 teams?

They won't run out of players. We know that. If the leagues are willing to allow smaller cities and venues, like for instance a MLB team in TD Ameritrade Park in Omaha, then there is no shortage of cities that can probably handle it. Although it probably would lead to situations like the one faced by Canucks or Sabres fans becoming common, i.e. potentially living your entire life without ever seeing your team win a championship. That could be tough to swallow, but it would be a common scenario with 50+ teams.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by esquire

At the risk of veering off topic, I wonder how much leagues can expand before they start hitting the wall?

In theory, what prevents the NFL, NHL, NBA, etc. from growing to 40, 60, 80 teams?

They won't run out of players. We know that. If the leagues are willing to allow smaller cities and venues, like for instance a MLB team in TD Ameritrade Park in Omaha, then there is no shortage of cities that can probably handle it. Although it probably would lead to situations like the one faced by Canucks or Sabres fans becoming common, i.e. potentially living your entire life without ever seeing your team win a championship. That could be tough to swallow, but it would be a common scenario with 50+ teams.

At what point does a league have so many teams that it cheapens the product? Could the Sens fetch nearly $1B if the league had 40+ teams? With more teams, there's a chance multiple teams might be fore sale at the same time, there are more chances that numerous teams are struggle (as we've seen with Pheonix, Florida, Carolina and even Ottawa). At some point, the playoffs need to be expanded as fans will be frustrated that it becomes extremly hard to make the playoffs, let alone win the Cup.

Originally Posted by JHikka

That's likely why they're weeding out potential ownership groups who are either noncommittal or flimsy on deadlines re: moving out of Kanata.

I hope that's the case and the NHL heavily favours groups who want to build at the Flats.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

At what point does a league have so many teams that it cheapens the product? Could the Sens fetch nearly $1B if the league had 40+ teams? With more teams, there's a chance multiple teams might be fore sale at the same time, there are more chances that numerous teams are struggle (as we've seen with Pheonix, Florida, Carolina and even Ottawa). At some point, the playoffs need to be expanded as fans will be frustrated that it becomes extremly hard to make the playoffs, let alone win the Cup.

I honestly wonder if the leagues need to stretch their imaginations and come up with alternative championships to create some fan excitement. Create some kind of meaningful sub-leagues or some such that expands the number of winners a bit. Kind of like how the 60+ teams of the CHL are divided up into 3 leagues, so your local team might at least celebrate winning the QMJHL even if it never actually wins the Memorial Cup.

If you end up with 60 teams chasing the Stanley Cup then as you point out, there might be teams that go decades without even making the playoffs. Tough to send out those $10,000 season ticket invoices when you're heading into year 15 of the playoff drought.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by esquire

I honestly wonder if the leagues need to stretch their imaginations and come up with alternative championships to create some fan excitement. Create some kind of meaningful sub-leagues or some such that expands the number of winners a bit. Kind of like how the 60+ teams of the CHL are divided up into 3 leagues, so your local team might at least celebrate winning the QMJHL even if it never actually wins the Memorial Cup.

If you end up with 60 teams chasing the Stanley Cup then as you point out, there might be teams that go decades without even making the playoffs. Tough to send out those $10,000 season ticket invoices when you're heading into year 15 of the playoff drought.

Or you do like some leagues and sports around the world and create multiple different championships that teams can compete for!

[savevp]

The CHL is a great example where the Mem Cup is effectively a Champions League.

It's more difficult in the NHL where you're arguably starting to degrade the talent pool with many more clubs. And you don't have the global pipeline of soccer where you can have a compelling champions league format; the NHL will probably win every time.

I could see a European division in the near-ish future though. At least there you have hockey cities with lots of actual hockey fans. Whether they'd be NHL fans is a question, but I suspect they would.

[WhipperSnapper]

Canada continues to do extremely well in international meets while the percentage of Canadian NHL players have gone from over 80% in the 1980s to under 50%. Clearly the global talent pool has kept up with the growth in number of teams

[esquire]

^ The NHL from 1960 to 1990 was a quantum leap where it went from a mostly Canadian league with some American players to a relatively global one with many European players and a lot more Americans. But I don't think a whole lot changed in the next 30 years from 1990-2020 in terms of adding new sources of players.

I guess we are seeing more players coming from warmer US states, which is a natural consequence of more hockey teams down there. Although a striking number of players from those sunbelt states have a connection to Canada/northern US states in that many are sons of former pro players who ended up in AZ/CA or wherever.

If you scratch a pro hockey player from the sunbelt you are more likely to find out their grandparents lived in Prince Albert as opposed to, say, Oaxaca.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by esquire

^ The NHL from 1960 to 1990 was a quantum leap where it went from a mostly Canadian league with some American players to a relatively global one with many European players and a lot more Americans. But I don't think a whole lot changed in the next 30 years from 1990-2020 in terms of adding new sources of players.

Same sources, just more of them. The sport of hockey in general hasn't tangibly increased in very many areas outside of NA and EU, although there are tiny pockets here and there. The NHL will be visiting Australia soon for games, after all.

I guess we are seeing more players coming from warmer US states, which is a natural consequence of more hockey teams down there. Although a striking number of players from those sunbelt states have a connection to Canada/northern US states in that many are sons of former pro players who ended up in AZ/CA or wherever.

There are just as many from non-hockey backgrounds as those who are sons of former pros. Nepotism in hockey, and sports in general, is incredibly common, but it also makes sense that many sons of former players would also make it pro based on just general finances, livelihood, and expectation.

Originally Posted by esquire

If you scratch a pro hockey player from the sunbelt you are more likely to find out their grandparents lived in Prince Albert as opposed to, say, Oaxaca.

Or, in the case of someone like Auston Matthews, not this. Jason and Nick Robertson, Jason Zucker, Thatcher Demko, Shayne Gostisbehere...

There'll be more from non-NHL fathers in the future, given how hockey in the south has developed in the past ten years. These things take decades to sort out.

[Coldrsx]

BURNCO Rock Products Ltd
6,916 followers
2w •

Once upon a SKYLINE!

Today we’re throwing it back to 1983, when we had the pleasure of supply ready mix for Calgary’s iconic Scotiabank Saddledome.

The Sadeldome officially opened to a sold out Reba McEntire concert on October 15th, 1983.

https://www.linkedin.com/company/bur...5HP47ZIA%3D%3D

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by Coldrsx

BURNCO Rock Products Ltd
6,916 followers
2w •

Once upon a SKYLINE!

Today we’re throwing it back to 1983, when we had the pleasure of supply ready mix for Calgary’s iconic Scotiabank Saddledome.

The Sadeldome officially opened to a sold out Reba McEntire concert on October 15th, 1983.

https://www.linkedin.com/company/bur...5HP47ZIA%3D%3D

The Dome is as old as I am!

[Denscity]

Sounds like BC Place is basically sold out for the international Rugby 7s. Cool led flag images on the side of the stadium.

[MalcolmTucker]

Alpharetta? Glendale 2.0. BRT up the highway to development sites is only running ten years behind the schedule announced 10 years ago.

[Djeffery]

Bringing a team to Atlanta is probably the quickest way to get Canada's 8th team. 2 out of 7 so far, might as well be 3 out of 8 in the early 2030's.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker

Alpharetta? Glendale 2.0. BRT up the highway to development sites is only running ten years behind the schedule announced 10 years ago.

That is really stupid. Have they learned nothing? At this rate, might as well have NHL teams in junior hockey arenas and just live off the tv deals and add revenues.

Originally Posted by Djeffery

Bringing a team to Atlanta is probably the quickest way to get Canada's 8th team. 2 out of 7 so far, might as well be 3 out of 8 in the early 2030's.