Tempe Development Thread

[Spitfiredude]

^ No, this was a concern, but as of now, expect it to same the same as it has the last 3 seasons (also look when this article was dated, before last season). Administrators were not happy about the alternative and it is staying the same. You will get more viewers for a game at 7 PM game broadcast nationally than a game that has UCLA in it that won't even be broadcast in Cali or nationally. See how the logic doesn't add up there. Exactly why this didn't happen. Now I think they are still trying to get more day games, but ESPN and Fox dictate this. They don't want it. It doesn't make sense for them to market games that half the country doesn't have a market for. This is why I think every P-12 team should play one of their non-conference in middle of their P-12 schedule.

[Jjs5056]

Originally Posted by dtnphx

On Sunday, I was driving around Downtown Tempe and it was hopping with a festival going on at Tempe Beach Park, people out and about and just a great destination on a great spring day. What really took my breath away is how FRIGGIN' MASSIVE the Hanover project is. NY, Philly, Baltimore? That thing is as dense a flowerless chocolate cake. That is going to really add to the body count downtown. Game changer, perhaps?

I was super critical of the project and still do wish it was built on Ash instead of adjacent to W6, but I'm over it - I definitely think it will be a game-changer; I just hope that their target market is realistic and that the 341 units (which is pretty incredible) aren't all leased to students. There's no denying W6 played a huge role in turning around Mill Ave post-recession, and I think Hanover - if truly filled with a good majority of the young professional crowd - could play a similar role in bringing some diversity to the retail scene besides just bars/restaurants.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by Jjs5056

I was super critical of the project and still do wish it was built on Ash instead of adjacent to W6, but I'm over it - I definitely think it will be a game-changer; I just hope that their target market is realistic and that the 341 units (which is pretty incredible) aren't all leased to students. There's no denying W6 played a huge role in turning around Mill Ave post-recession, and I think Hanover - if truly filled with a good majority of the young professional crowd - could play a similar role in bringing some diversity to the retail scene besides just bars/restaurants.

I gotta say I graduated 3 years ago and the difference of the demographics on Mill is astounding.

When I was in school no-doubt it was 100% ASU students, I was their the other day and is a mix of lots of different ages It is nice to see.

I live in Old Town, not a clubber at all, I would prefer if Scottsdale tried to emulate Tempe more and get its bar scene better. All the best bars are Downtown or in Tempe.

[Jjs5056]

Which is great. I love that there are even senior-living apartments in downtown Tempe (which the snots in Roosevelt fought so hard against). It's this mix of students, young professionals, baby boomers, and retirees that is going to make Tempe a truly cosmopolitan city.

Just think if even a small percentage of the workers at State Farm, HF3 and Rio+Mill live at SALT, SkyWater and Hanover? It's exciting and I really hope we see the dots starting to connect between Farmer and Mill, and Mill and College.

[TempeSilverFox]

Originally Posted by Jjs5056

I was super critical of the project and still do wish it was built on Ash instead of adjacent to W6, but I'm over it - I definitely think it will be a game-changer; I just hope that their target market is realistic and that the 341 units (which is pretty incredible) aren't all leased to students. There's no denying W6 played a huge role in turning around Mill Ave post-recession, and I think Hanover - if truly filled with a good majority of the young professional crowd - could play a similar role in bringing some diversity to the retail scene besides just bars/restaurants.

When the Downtown Tempe Association came to speak with Chase leadership last week, the speaker emphasized that Hanover is NOT allowing co-signers precisely because their target market is professional urbanites and NOT students.

I am really liking the project at this point. I can't wait to see if they add some trees and street scape to round out the project. The only thing (and I wish I had taken a better picture of it the other day) that I can't figure out is an architectural feature that fronts Maple that appears to look like a front entrance- yet there is no apparent entrance behind it... I'm not sure what it is- or where it will lead... but I'll try to snap a photo of it tomorrow and see if anyone here can figure it out...

[Jjs5056]

Originally Posted by TempeSilverFox

When the Downtown Tempe Association came to speak with Chase leadership last week, the speaker emphasized that Hanover is NOT allowing co-signers precisely because their target market is professional urbanites and NOT students.

I am really liking the project at this point. I can't wait to see if they add some trees and street scape to round out the project. The only thing (and I wish I had taken a better picture of it the other day) that I can't figure out is an architectural feature that fronts Maple that appears to look like a front entrance- yet there is no apparent entrance behind it... I'm not sure what it is- or where it will lead... but I'll try to snap a photo of it tomorrow and see if anyone here can figure it out...

That's great to hear! 341 apartments (nearly the same as the two W6 towers combined) filled with non-students is going to be awesome!

Is the feature you're talking about on Maple only, or at the corner of Maple/5th? I assumed the corner was the main entrance - is that incorrect?

A lot of projects these days are making their clubhouses, leasing offices, and fitness centers to look like true retail, so I imagine that it is own of those that you are seeing.

[Obadno]

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/...rty-inks-srp-deal-for-papago-office.html

This is the development at Priest and Washington we've known about for a while, it is supposed to be another 3.2 million Sqft

Anyone know if this has a snowballs chance of coming to fruition or what?

Also Id like to point out in the Phoenix Development bored people that say there is no office demand..... ahem.... why cant the city get anything within its limits let alone Downtown or Midtown?

[Jjs5056]

Originally Posted by Obadno

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/...rty-inks-srp-deal-for-papago-office.html

This is the development at Priest and Washington we've known about for a while, it is supposed to be another 3.2 million Sqft

Anyone know if this has a snowballs chance of coming to fruition or what?

Also Id like to point out in the Phoenix Development bored people that say there is no office demand..... ahem.... why cant the city get anything within its limits let alone Downtown or Midtown?

I would say the chances of it being built in its entirety are close to 0. If anything, I imagine 1 or 2 office buildings will be built at most within the current cycle. There is just way too much in the pipeline already for Tempe to absorb this project in full.

If you are referring to me in your paragraph - you've misunderstood my posts. I have been saying that there IS a strong demand for Class A office space and that downtown especially is lagging behind its suburbs when it comes to attracting tenants needed to build these projects. But, any sort of criticism seems to be met by extreme defensiveness lately. But, I totally agree. There's no reason that with the amount of office projects completed in Scottsdale, Tempe and Chandler in the last 6 years, downtown Phoenix shouldn't have been able to break ground on a single office tower since CityScape was finished.

[PHXFlyer11]

Originally Posted by Jjs5056

I would say the chances of it being built in its entirety are close to 0. If anything, I imagine 1 or 2 office buildings will be built at most within the current cycle. There is just way too much in the pipeline already for Tempe to absorb this project in full.

I disagree. Developer A doesn't care that Developer B & C are also planning projects. There is value in being first to market, having the best location and best facilities.

If I own that land I am developing it NOW. Why would I wait until after Mill + Rio and HFL3 are done? Then I'd be waiting out that construction and that building to fill. So I'm what... 5 years down the road at best and then have to hope that Tempe is still hot and the economy is still good? That's quite the gamble. The vacancies are 5% for class A in Tempe. You move NOW, as fast as you can. You are better off trying to win long-term leases from big companies on the merits of your project and location that trying to wait and hope that in the future vacancies of class A in Tempe fall below 5%. Good luck. That's a fool's bet.

There is also a great chance that SRP commits to a lot of that space.

[Jjs5056]

Originally Posted by PHXFlyer11

I disagree. Developer A doesn't care that Developer B & C are also planning projects. There is value in being first to market, having the best location and best facilities.

If I own that land I am developing it NOW. Why would I wait until after Mill + Rio and HFL3 are done? Then I'd be waiting out that construction and that building to fill. So I'm what... 5 years down the road at best and then have to hope that Tempe is still hot and the economy is still good? That's quite the gamble. The vacancies are 5% for class A in Tempe. You move NOW, as fast as you can. You are better off trying to win long-term leases from big companies on the merits of your project and location that trying to wait and hope that in the future vacancies of class A in Tempe fall below 5%. Good luck. That's a fool's bet.

There is also a great chance that SRP commits to a lot of that space.

But they AREN'T first to market. Had they begun before HF3, Marina Heights, Rio+Mill, Discovery Campus, and Liberty, then I would agree. But, that 5% is going to go up significantly unless HF3 and Rio+Mill are completely pre-leased.

You really think the project in its full scope can be achieved knowing that all of those developments will come to market before them? I'm not an expert, so I'm not saying my prediction is gospel. But, I just don't see it happening beyond a couple of buildings. And, you say that developer A doesn't care about developer B - that can't be true. No developer is stupid enough to build, say, residential in a market that is already completely oversaturated. Their job is to keep up with the market and know what developments are going to be breaking ground and shifting the current dynamics. And, I have to imagine those funding such projects look at these things, too. Even the developer is quoted as saying the market could absorb the space "over time." I don't think even they are expecting to build it out in full.

If SRP commits to space, that changes things. I didn't know that - from the article, it sounded like they were just involved with the land purchase. Obviously, any project that has an anchor tenant leasing significant space is going to have a good chance of being built. But, I don't see them needing the entire proposed office square footage.

Lastly, it's disappointing that this went from a mixed use development to an office-only one. It's in a perfectly situated location to create a live/work development that leverages light rail and the nearby freeways. With downtown filling up, these areas just on the fringe would've been ideal for mixed use projects that alleviated some of the overrun.

[azsunsurfer]

Originally Posted by Jjs5056

But they AREN'T first to market. Had they begun before HF3, Marina Heights, Rio+Mill, Discovery Campus, and Liberty, then I would agree. But, that 5% is going to go up significantly unless HF3 and Rio+Mill are completely pre-leased.

You really think the project in its full scope can be achieved knowing that all of those developments will come to market before them? I'm not an expert, so I'm not saying my prediction is gospel. But, I just don't see it happening beyond a couple of buildings. And, you say that developer A doesn't care about developer B - that can't be true. No developer is stupid enough to build, say, residential in a market that is already completely oversaturated. Their job is to keep up with the market and know what developments are going to be breaking ground and shifting the current dynamics. And, I have to imagine those funding such projects look at these things, too. Even the developer is quoted as saying the market could absorb the space "over time." I don't think even they are expecting to build it out in full.

If SRP commits to space, that changes things. I didn't know that - from the article, it sounded like they were just involved with the land purchase. Obviously, any project that has an anchor tenant leasing significant space is going to have a good chance of being built. But, I don't see them needing the entire proposed office square footage.

Lastly, it's disappointing that this went from a mixed use development to an office-only one. It's in a perfectly situated location to create a live/work development that leverages light rail and the nearby freeways. With downtown filling up, these areas just on the fringe would've been ideal for mixed use projects that alleviated some of the overrun.

My understanding is that SRP is only going to take a minimal amount of space.

At first I was a bit negative on the likelyhood of this being built out but,
I am mixed on this one...State Farm came out of nowhere, and who is to say there aren't other large corporate end users who will eventually be looking for a fully entitled site that they could co-locate/ consolidate their operations.

There was an article awhile back saying that Phoenix was losing to Houston on not having fully entitled sites for large corporate campuses. I see this being a contender to try to lure someone away from another part of the country. However, places like Houston have strong market demand therefore they are able to have a larger surplus of spec sites already entitled.

Just my thoughts.

[PHXFlyer11]

Originally Posted by Jjs5056

But they AREN'T first to market. Had they begun before HF3, Marina Heights, Rio+Mill, Discovery Campus, and Liberty, then I would agree. But, that 5% is going to go up significantly unless HF3 and Rio+Mill are completely pre-leased.

You really think the project in its full scope can be achieved knowing that all of those developments will come to market before them? I'm not an expert, so I'm not saying my prediction is gospel. But, I just don't see it happening beyond a couple of buildings. And, you say that developer A doesn't care about developer B - that can't be true. No developer is stupid enough to build, say, residential in a market that is already completely oversaturated. Their job is to keep up with the market and know what developments are going to be breaking ground and shifting the current dynamics. And, I have to imagine those funding such projects look at these things, too. Even the developer is quoted as saying the market could absorb the space "over time." I don't think even they are expecting to build it out in full.

If SRP commits to space, that changes things. I didn't know that - from the article, it sounded like they were just involved with the land purchase. Obviously, any project that has an anchor tenant leasing significant space is going to have a good chance of being built. But, I don't see them needing the entire proposed office square footage.

I'm not saying this will be a full build out of the vision. That rarely happens. But you said there as a zero chance of this happening. That simply is not true. This will happen and the market is right. Of course developers pay attention to others, but the market could not be any better in Tempe than it is now. Yes, there will always be other projects under construction and competition to deal with. All it takes is one large tenant to sign a pre-construction lease and you can move dirt. There are very few places that could fill the needs right now for a large tenant. Therefore vacancy rates for Class A large space requirements may as well be 0%.

Now sure, in theory Mill + Rio and HFL3 are competing with each other for the same tenants, but that's not necessarily true. In all likelihood their target lease lists are not identical. In addition, just because a project does beat them to market doesn't mean that the customer even needs the space yet at that time. Or maybe they would rather be on the other side of the 202. That is called good ole competition and up to the developers to tout the differentiates of their respective properties (location, price, amenities, lease length). If you don't believe your project to provide value and can't compete with others then you don't build.

I have no information to support SRP moving it, it was just a hunch.

[Jjs5056]

Originally Posted by PHXFlyer11

I'm not saying this will be a full build out of the vision. That rarely happens. But you said there as a zero chance of this happening. That simply is not true. This will happen and the market is right. Of course developers pay attention to others, but the market could not be any better in Tempe than it is now. Yes, there will always be other projects under construction and competition to deal with. All it takes is one large tenant to sign a pre-construction lease and you can move dirt. There are very few places that could fill the needs right now for a large tenant. Therefore vacancy rates for Class A large space requirements may as well be 0%.

Now sure, in theory Mill + Rio and HFL3 are competing with each other for the same tenants, but that's not necessarily true. In all likelihood their target lease lists are not identical. In addition, just because a project does beat them to market doesn't mean that the customer even needs the space yet at that time. Or maybe they would rather be on the other side of the 202. That is called good ole competition and up to the developers to tout the differentiates of their respective properties (location, price, amenities, lease length). If you don't believe your project to provide value and can't compete with others then you don't build.

I have no information to support SRP moving it, it was just a hunch.

Oh okay, I think you just misunderstood me/I wasn't very clear. I said that there was 0 chance of it happening, but that 1 or 2 buildings would likely be built this cycle. In other words, 0 chance of it being built as one mega-development a la Marina Heights if it breaks ground in 2016 as planned. I didn't mean 0 chance of the project as a whole not happening. I still think there's a chance that it will completely fail, just based on the track record of these types of superdevelopments... but, I wouldn't say there's 0 chance because yes, there is a lot of office demand in Tempe and who knows? Maybe the additional office space being built will actually attract even more demand as others will want to be where the action is? Though I think it is worth noting that the demand is mainly in downtown Tempe - this site is outside those borders, and you have to admit that having Mill Ave within walking distance is a huge benefit to projects built in the core.

Selfishly, I hope the project doesn't get built in its current form. I think it's crappy that they scaled back the residential and retail portions. I think it's really important to build up residential centers near the light rail stops and this being just one or two stops from downtown, should be one of the first to develop into such IMO. A suburban office park on a prime light rail stop seems anticlimactic.

[PHXFlyer11]

Originally Posted by Jjs5056

Oh okay, I think you just misunderstood me/I wasn't very clear. I said that there was 0 chance of it happening, but that 1 or 2 buildings would likely be built this cycle. In other words, 0 chance of it being built as one mega-development a la Marina Heights if it breaks ground in 2016 as planned. I didn't mean 0 chance of the project as a whole not happening. I still think there's a chance that it will completely fail, just based on the track record of these types of superdevelopments... but, I wouldn't say there's 0 chance because yes, there is a lot of office demand in Tempe and who knows? Maybe the additional office space being built will actually attract even more demand as others will want to be where the action is? Though I think it is worth noting that the demand is mainly in downtown Tempe - this site is outside those borders, and you have to admit that having Mill Ave within walking distance is a huge benefit to projects built in the core.

Selfishly, I hope the project doesn't get built in its current form. I think it's crappy that they scaled back the residential and retail portions. I think it's really important to build up residential centers near the light rail stops and this being just one or two stops from downtown, should be one of the first to develop into such IMO. A suburban office park on a prime light rail stop seems anticlimactic.

Well, the good news is that we've seen when a lot of these super developments fail in Tempe it tends to create diversity as the land that wasn't developed is eventually sold to a new develop who builds a different, often more dense building. So just a couple 10 story buildings in my mind would be a win. Even if the rest wasn't developed for awhile. Because of the flight paths we'll never see anything above probably 10 stories on that land.

[Jjs5056]

Originally Posted by PHXFlyer11

Well, the good news is that we've seen when a lot of these super developments fail in Tempe it tends to create diversity as the land that wasn't developed is eventually sold to a new develop who builds a different, often more dense building. So just a couple 10 story buildings in my mind would be a win. Even if the rest wasn't developed for awhile. Because of the flight paths we'll never see anything above probably 10 stories on that land.

Definitely, though I'd rather see a couple of 10 story buildings on Ash than here. I don't mind lower heights in this area, though. I have a problem with the design that completely ignores the light rail station it sits adjacent to, and with its lack of mixed uses in an area that could develop into a really attractive area once downtown becomes more and more built out and congested, with light rail and easy access to amenities like Papago Park, DBG, Phoenix Zoo, Phoenix Muni, Pueblo Grande, the airport, etc.

[Obadno]

FYI according to the Article they still plan on a hotel and (if memory serves) they planned on an apartment/condo development next to Lofts on Rio Between the light rail stations.

Don't know if those are still a "go" but for a developer rentals in Tempe-Scottsdale seem like a no-lose gamble.

[Jjs5056]

Originally Posted by Obadno

FYI according to the Article they still plan on a hotel and (if memory serves) they planned on an apartment/condo development next to Lofts on Rio Between the light rail stations.

Don't know if those are still a "go" but for a developer rentals in Tempe-Scottsdale seem like a no-lose gamble.

The original plan, while it was totally suburban-style with no connection to the light rail, did at least include residential units. However, this article only mentions a possible future hotel phase - no residential.

For light rail to continue to be successful, it needs as much residential built near it as possible. And for downtown Tempe to continue to grow once its very limited downtown is built out, its inner-ring sites such as this will become extremely important.

I'd rather see hotels further up Washington built up the street and revitalizing some of the blight just prior and after the airport.

[azsunsurfer]

Originally Posted by Jjs5056

The original plan, while it was totally suburban-style with no connection to the light rail, did at least include residential units. However, this article only mentions a possible future hotel phase - no residential.

For light rail to continue to be successful, it needs as much residential built near it as possible. And for downtown Tempe to continue to grow once its very limited downtown is built out, its inner-ring sites such as this will become extremely important.

I'd rather see hotels further up Washington built up the street and revitalizing some of the blight just prior and after the airport.

I honestly see SRP selling or doing ground leases for each different land use....I see them next entering into an agreement with Broadstone or Alliance for them to build some 4 story structured complex like we are seeing going up everywhere right now. It's realistic. Then they'll do the same for the retail and hotel all separate. It's almost what Hines is doing with the Elevation site in Chandler...subdivide and conquer.

[Jjs5056]

Originally Posted by azsunsurfer

I honestly see SRP selling or doing ground leases for each different land use....I see them next entering into an agreement with Broadstone or Alliance for them to build some 4 story structured complex like we are seeing going up everywhere right now. It's realistic. Then they'll do the same for the retail and hotel all separate. It's almost what Hines is doing with the Elevation site in Chandler...subdivide and conquer.

That would seem to make sense, but the new site plan and quotes from the developer seem to indicate that residential is definitely out, and hotel and retail are only 'possibilities.' It has definitely morphed from a poorly designed, but at least good mix of uses project into a really basic suburban office park.

[exit2lef]

Interesting blog post I noticed today about State Farm:

http://t4america.org/2015/03/16/state-fa...-of-employees-in-locations-near-transit/

Apparently, the Tempe location is part of an overall strategy of locating near rail transit. The same criterion is being used for offices in Atlanta and Dallas. There is a reader comment at the bottom of the post, however, that makes an important point: If the parking is free or ridiculously cheap, the incentive to walk half a mile to the Mill Ave / 3rd St. station may not be all that strong.