Quebec, the French Language, and Quebecois Identity

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

What do you mean?

They have made some progress with minorities and now have quite a few minorities involved with the PQ, as militants, party officials and when they had more elected members, some were members of the assembly and ministers.

The PQ is not really an all-white, all-French Canadian party as some people accuse them of being.

But yes the PQ's overall share of the minority vote is still fairly small.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Zeej

Great dissatisfaction with the CAQ right now. Support had to go somewhere. PQ with its likeable leader is apparently the best alternative.

Not very different from the Québec political scene just before the 1994 provincial election. I doubt the PQ surge back then was due to a desire in the electorate to have a new referendum. Like I said the other day, the referendum happened essentially because of the boldness of one man, who didn't listen to advisors and pollsters.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I think Legault and the CAQ still have ample time to stop the bleeding and recover, but if they will is anyone's guess.

How come? Is Legault planning to run again in 2026? I can imagine some voters' fatigue at this point.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

But yes the PQ's overall share of the minority vote is still fairly small.

Perhaps they should put some visible minority in prominent positions in the party, to serve as role models for immigrant communities.

[Zeej]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Perhaps they should put some visible minority in prominent positions in the party, to serve as role models for immigrant communities.

They've already tried that, more than once.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maka_Kotto

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I think Parizeau's "assumption" was more strategic than something he truly believed was unassailable.

The safest bet is that borders would be on the discussion table, but whether or not that would lead to any readjustments at all is extremely uncertain.

What would Canada-sans-Quebec have to gain for insisting forcefully that certain areas of Quebec remain with Canada, especially in southern Quebec? Just one example: in the extremely unlikely scenario that Canada-sans-Quebec would "get to keep" Montreal, all of a sudden the new Canada sees its francophone population double (or triple depending on where you set the boundary) with everything that entails in terms of political complications. Let's not forget that in an independence scenario during the transition period when not everything is settled, there is a good chance that a significant percentage of the anglo population of Montreal would leave Quebec for the ROC anyway. So you're going to go through all of that pain for a much-diminished Anglo-Montreal? Methinks that the ROC would have bigger fish to fry in the negotiations. A better and way more likely strategy would simply be to say that anyone moving from Quebec to the ROC would be welcomed with open arms.

I don't think Canada has ever considered what the benefits might be, which is why it remains an unknown. Also unknown is Canada's reaction to separation - calm and resigned, angry and vengeful, other? Since Canada has never considered its best interests in such a scenario, the reaction is impossible to predict.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Zeej

They've already tried that, more than once.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maka_Kotto

I was thinking more of Indians and Chinese. Those are the ones they need to convince. Also, I'm thinking more of Canadian-born visible minorities, of which there are now many in Québec. Putting foreign-born immigrants in prominent positions appears to me as "trying too hard". It just shows. You see the same in places like The Netherlands, or Sweden. It's like the parties or politicians want to tick some boxes to show their openness, but there's something artificial to it.

Including and promoting Canadian-born visible minorities, on the other hand, should be a priority (and would be politically clever too).

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Zeej

They've already tried that, more than once.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maka_Kotto

Until very recently the president of the PQ was this guy.

https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dieudonn%C3%A9_Ella_Oyono

Among celebrities and public figures in Quebec, independence is actually quite a bit more popular among those who are from minorities than it is among the rank-and-file minority people you meet on the street.

So there is actually no shortage of prominent minority people in Quebec who are clearly sympathetic to Quebec becoming a country.

But it doesn't translate into a significant chunk of minority votes at the ballot box.

(And in actual fact, Québec solidaire has arguably been more successful at bringing minorities on board for independence than the PQ has.)

[Zeej]

Originally Posted by Acajack

(And in actual fact, Québec solidaire has arguably been more successful at bringing minorities on board for independence than the PQ has.)

The one caveat about QS is that despite being an openly sovereignist party, its supporters (according to various polls) lean slightly more federalist.

It would be interesting to see what would happen if they ever approached power.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Not very different from the Québec political scene just before the 1994 provincial election. I doubt the PQ surge back then was due to a desire in the electorate to have a new referendum. Like I said the other day, the referendum happened essentially because of the boldness of one man, who didn't listen to advisors and pollsters.

You could argue he was proven correct given how close it ended up which minus a federalist surge at the end, that some argue was illegal, would have ended with a narrow yes vote and a country for Quebec.

It's easy to imagine someone else coming along who things along the same lines. Certainly chance of that seems greater than 1%. In a three or four way campaign it might even make sense for PQ to put it in their platform and watch the other three parties split the vote in opposition.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

In a three or four way campaign it might even make sense for PQ to put it in their platform and watch the other three parties split the vote in opposition.

What I was thinking (to rebound also on what Acajack was saying), is maybe at some point Legault will try the referendum card if he sees his support base collapsing and a high risk of losing power. That would be a good way to deprive the PQ of their main selling point (or, let's rephrase, the main thing that differentiates them from CAQ). I've always thought of Legault as an opportunist more than anything, so I can see him doing that in a Machiavellian way. And he was a sovereignist originally after all. What do the Québec forumers here think?

[Zeej]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

You could argue he was proven correct given how close it ended up which minus a federalist surge at the end, that some argue was illegal, would have ended with a narrow yes vote and a country for Quebec.

To be very fair, there are accusations of illegalities on both sides.

It's strongly suspected that the NON violated election spending rules.

It is suspected that an abnormal quantity of newcomers were admitted to Quebec (via Canada) assuming they would vote no.

It is supsected by both sides that the other side destroyed ballots. Nothing to this effect has been proven.

[Zeej]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

What I was thinking (to rebound also on what Acajack was saying), is maybe at some point Legault will try the referendum card if he sees his support base collapsing and a high risk of losing power. That would be a good way to deprive the PQ of their main selling point (or, let's rephrase, the main thing that differentiates them from CAQ). I've always thought of Legault as an opportunist more than anything, so I can see him doing that in a Machiavellian way. And he was a sovereignist originally after all. What do the Québec forumers here think?

While he is suspected of being a sovereignist in some circles, if he ever openly admitted it at this point, his political career would be over. This loss of credibility could extend to his professional life after politics. Maybe the CAQ itself would fold.

If I'm not mistaken, calling a referendum requires a vote in the National Assembly. Not sure his own party (Coalition of federalists and sovereignists) would support such a vote after such an about-face.

Now, Legault is actually quite rich (independent of being premier), so you could argue he would just go away and retire happy.

If anything, he would come out as an ally in an independent Quebec. It's not as if he'd leave or anything. He even recently called it something to the effect of a 'beautiful idea' while simultaneoulsy attacking the PQ's year 1 budget.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Zeej

To be very fair, there are accusations of illegalities on both sides.

It's strongly suspected that the NON violated election spending rules.

It is suspected that an abnormal quantity of newcomers were admitted to Quebec (via Canada) assuming they would vote no.

It is supsected by both sides that the other side destroyed ballots. Nothing to this effect has been proven.

What has been proven is that Oui sympathizers in certain predominantly Non-voting ridings in western Montreal and Laval were found to have been too fussy about whether ballots marked Non were valid or not, and rejected an abnormal number of them.

I think there was an investigation and a few people were charged.

I think we're only talking about a fairly small amount of ballots overall.

It's probably quite a bit less than the number of people of actually voted illegally, either because they got Canadian citizenship fast-tracked and swore they had the Quebec residency requirement (six months in the province), former Quebec residents who signed up to vote and swore they intended to return but never intended to, out-of-province students. If you look just at the citizenship attribution numbers at the Montreal office in the weeks before the referendum, they are way off the charts for any office ever in Canada. Of course some of them are people who'd been living here a while and never got around to taking the oath, but there is plenty of evidence they were just offering citizenship to anyone coming off the street.

Even some foreign terrorist got Canadian citizenship he was not entitled to I think. I'll have to dig up that story.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Zeej

While he is suspected of being a sovereignist in some circles, if he ever openly admitted it at this point, his political career would be over. This loss of credibility could extend to his professional life after politics. Maybe the CAQ itself would fold.

Oh I think he can be much more clever than that. He wouldn't pronounce himself in favor of independence, but he would say something along the lines of: as we've all seen with the renewed popular support of sovereignist parties in the polls, the people of Québec are now more and more in favor of a new referendum, so it is perhaps time we organize one to let this generation decide 30 years after the last one. I don't think independence would be good at this moment blablabla, but will faithfully organize one and let all parties and political colors express themselves, etc. And then he would present himself as some sort of neutral statesman who would dutifully and faithfully execute the will of the people whatever the result of the referendum.

That would cut some support in the PQ. In fact it could even divide the PQ (better a Legault victory with a certain referendum than an uncertain victory of PQ with no referendum in case of defeat).

[1overcosc]

I generally agree that there won't be much alteration of borders in a separation scenario, but I could see a few small adjustments being made by mutual agreement.

There's a few disputes as well. Quebec has always disputed the 1927 arbitration that set the border with Labrador and negotiating the maritime borders in the Gulf of St. Lawrence might get hairy.

The water border in the Ottawa River might need to be adjusted a bit to optimize the border for sharing the Ontario-Quebec cross-border hydro dams.

And in some isolated cases like Blanc-Sablon and Rapides-des-Joachimes (both majority anglophone communities adjacent to the borders with Labrador and Ontario with no road connections to the rest of Quebec), some populated places might be moved out of Quebec.

I don't think partitioning Montreal will ever realistically be on the table. It's a ridiculous idea.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

There's a few disputes as well. Quebec has always disputed the 1927 arbitration that set the border with Labrador and negotiating the maritime borders in the Gulf of St. Lawrence might get hairy.

Yes, the Labrador border will be the only one that will be discussed in case of independence, but that's because Québec doesn't recognize this border, so the uti possidetis principle cannot operate here.

That said, I doubt Québec would get the border they want in Labrador in case of independence. They would either have to accept the border set by Canada, or refuse to agree to a border, and so that would be one of those borders on which countries don't agree (those dotted lines on maps... such as a part of the Egyptian-Sudanese border for instance, or the Venezuelan-Guyanese border).

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

And in some isolated cases like Blanc-Sablon and Rapides-des-Joachimes (both majority anglophone communities adjacent to the borders with Labrador and Ontario with no road connections to the rest of Quebec), some populated places might be moved out of Quebec.

Blanc-Sablon voted OUI in 1995, didn't they?

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Yes, the Labrador border will be the only one that will be discussed in case of independence, but that's because Québec doesn't recognize this border, so the uti possidetis principle cannot operate here.

That said, I doubt Québec would get the border they want in Labrador in case of independence. They would either have to accept the border set by Canada, or refuse to agree to a border, and so that would be one of those borders on which countries don't agree (those dotted lines on maps... such as a part of the Egyptian-Sudanese border for instance, or the Venezuelan-Guyanese border).


Blanc-Sablon voted OUI in 1995, didn't they?

It is part of a huge riding (circonscription) larger than Great Britain that voted Oui by a wide margin.

But not sure about the vote in Blanc-Sablon itself, though that info can be found somewhere.

Most of the riding's population is in 100% francophone cities and towns like Baie-Comeau and Sept-Îles that aren't huge but much larger than Blanc-Sablon.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Oh I think he can be much more clever than that. He wouldn't pronounce himself in favor of independence, but he would say something along the lines of: as we've all seen with the renewed popular support of sovereignist parties in the polls, the people of Québec are now more and more in favor of a new referendum, so it is perhaps time we organize one to let this generation decide 30 years after the last one. I don't think independence would be good at this moment blablabla, but will faithfully organize one and let all parties and political colors express themselves, etc. And then he would present himself as some sort of neutral statesman who would dutifully and faithfully execute the will of the people whatever the result of the referendum.

That would cut some support in the PQ. In fact it could even divide the PQ (better a Legault victory with a certain referendum than an uncertain victory of PQ with no referendum in case of defeat).

Legault's line since he formed the CAQ has been that he doesn't want to talk about independence because most Quebecers aren't interested in it. I don't think he's ever renounced the option clearly and publicly but generally hides behind the pledge that he won't try to force something onto Quebecers against their will.

He's been able to walk the tightrope fairly well for many years now. Actually until very recently when PSPP started getting more popular and pushing him into committing more one way or the other. This has led to François Legault making more pro-federalist statements than one might have expected - and he is probably the first one surprised. He's still not nearly as federalist as any other Canadian provincial Premier of course, or than the Quebec Liberal leader would be.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

But not sure about the vote in Blanc-Sablon itself, though that info can be found somewhere.

I couldn't find it online. But I think I read some article a few years ago that talked about Blanc-Sablon, about the oddity of an Anglophone settlement connected more to Newfoundland than Québec and yet pro-Québec independence.