Okay, with some further googling, I think I can start to make some claims, though I'm not claiming to be an expert by any means.
The above document seems to answer my question as to why the Red River crossing gets away with not having crossing gates, while others (including the frontage roads) do. Either the red line is going faster than 35 mph there (or it could, or they don't want that limit).
So it seems like the line could be extended further into downtown without adding crossing gates everywhere. As electricon notes, either in a shared lane or exclusive lane. Sharing the lane seems like it would be bad (after finally getting "exclusive" bus lanes downtown), we don't want the rail getting stuck in gridlock downtown.
Reading
https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/49/part-222 , it does seem like the FRA would require horn soundings at every intersection (since the red line isn't a fully separated rapid transit system
https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/49/222.5 ). Absent a quiet zone (which I believe would require gates again).
That _could_ be a reason to prefer a separated, not general railroad, system downtown. And I think that may be where things are pointing*
But an at-grade, traffic-signal-intersections extension would still be possible.
For the other options wwmiv, I think different treatments would be required.
And I think I'll agree that I was probably being too loose with definitions before. Rather than saying those routes would require "light rail", instead let me state it as "those routes would require significant capital investment in intersection treatments and/or a speed limit that would greatly penalize non-electrified operation".
For your options 2 and 6 (basically any expansion that isn't in an existing railroad RoW that already has limited crossings) I think a 35 mph speed limit in the non-downtown area (where station spacing is wider) will pretty severely performance (and hence the draw compared to SOV). A higher speed then seems to then require crossing gates and other intersection treatments. OR if you keep a 35 mph speed limit, electrified operation (and it's greater acceleration performance) helps to mitigate the speed limit hit.
* I think a separate intra-downtown system is where things are pointing. An extension of the red line (as a commuter line) doesn't seem to be presented as an option in Project connect documents anywhere (even when a bunch of other stuff, even stuff we know is no longer on the table like Lone Star, is
https://capmetro.org/uploadedFiles/C...Circulator.pdf )
Instead, we have shaded areas for "Circulators". I'm guessing the push (in the intermediate/long term) will be for that area to be served by some sort of short distance streetcar setup. Hopefully in exclusive lanes.
Compared to extending the red line :
Disadvantages:
No longer one seat, have to transfer
Advantages:
Can reach areas the red line was never going to be extended to.
Easier turning.
Can run at a different frequency than the red(green/yellow) line, helping to serve intra-downtown trips better.
Potentially shorter vehicles to not block downtown intersections (red line doesn't have this problem yet, but hopefully they'll be extended sometime).
Completely separated rapid transit system from railroad, so no longer under FTA jurisdiction or rules.
Potentially simplifying boarding process for outgoing commuters? The new downtown station will have (I believe) 3 board spots, to eventually support high frequencies on the red line as well as other potential outgoing commuter systems (green line, potential yellow line). With multiple commuter lines, you either have to:
1) extend all of them into downtown (double, possibly triple-tracking)
2) have outgoing commuters from rio grande ride the red line to the convention center station, then transfer.