City Murder Rates

[NorthernDancer]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

LA and Edmonton have similar murder rates, despite the vast differences in demographics and gun availability:

LA 3.6/100k (50% higher than NYC) YTD

Edmonton 3.4/100k.

You're doing more of your nonsense by comparing half of one year. Try taking the averages for both cities over the last 8 or 10 years - ie., a proper sample size. I guarantee you L.A. will have a higher rate.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by NorthernDancer

You're doing more of your nonsense by comparing half of one year. Try taking the averages for both cities over the last 8 or 10 years - ie., a proper sample size. I guarantee you L.A. will have a higher rate.

Yeah, let's do that for all SSP topics.

Let's ignore the most current data, and look at 10-year-old data. Should work wonderfully for threads on city population, density, construction, transit and the like.

[Jonesy55]

Originally Posted by Crawford

No, it's definitely true. The vast majority of people living in Chicagoland are in neighborhoods no more dangerous than the typical Canadian neighborhood. It's not like typical middle class areas in Toronto and Chicago have notably differing levels of public safety. The Napervilles of the U.S. aren't different from the Mississaugas of Canada.

The U.S. has crime rates comparable to most first world nations excepting gun-related murder, and, even then, the rate is mostly due to the massive outlier affect among African Americans. If you're in the U.S. and not in an African American neighborhood, your chances of being shot/killed are about the same as anywhere else in the developed world.

That doesn't excuse the rate, of course. But it means, in practical terms, for most people, there's no difference.

I guess in those circumstances it might be that the main difference is that there are some parts of the city that you 'definitely don't want to go to/get lost in', whereas in other cities that isn't really an issue, you can go wherever without having to worry about that kind of stuff..

[dc_denizen]

Originally Posted by Pavlov's Dog

Those are amazingly low numbers. I understand that Portland is on a pace to shatter all records for lowest absolute numbers and also given the fact that the city's population is growing by 10,000 the rate will be record low as well. If Portland can keep this up the total might not make 10 for the entire year

Wow, Portland's rate is 1.1/100k (7 homicides) ytd. I imagine the urban area homicides are even less per capita given Hillsboro et al probably have negligible murder rates.

that has got to be one of the lowest rates in North America for a large city.

[Pavlov's Dog]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

Wow, Portland's rate is 1.1/100k (7 homicides) ytd. I imagine the urban area homicides are even less per capita given Hillsboro et al probably have negligible murder rates.

that has got to be one of the lowest rates in North America for a large city.

Looking at the FBI data for 2014 it would indeed be #1 by a large margin among cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants. San Diego is at 2.3 but of course includes massive areas that would be low crime suburbs of most typical cities.

Toronto had a murder rate of 2.0 in 2012 and Vancouver 1.2. Canada as a whole has a rate of 1.6

I don't have city level data but the national averages for the following countries is: Australia 1.3, England and Wales 1.0, Ireland 1.0, New Zealand 0.9, Sweden .9

Among major cities I found 2009 data with the following homicide rates: Amsterdam 4.4, Glasgow 3.3, Brussels 3, Prague 2.7, Seoul 2.4, Warsaw 1.9, Berlin 1.8, London 1.6, Helsinki 1.2, Oslo 1.2, Vienna 1.1, Madrid 1, Tokyo 0.4, Lisbon 0.2

It will be interesting to see if this is a permanent development or a statistical blip and we will see Portland revert to the mean.

BTW, does anyone have any good data on crime rates for metropolitan areas? I feel that would be a much better comparison than city vs. city given the varying inclusion of typical suburban areas within a city limits.

[softee]

Originally Posted by Pavlov's Dog

Looking at the FBI data for 2014 it would indeed be #1 by a large margin among cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants.

Quebec City (2015 pop. 541,000) would be #1. No homicides yet this year.

[Pavlov's Dog]

Originally Posted by softee

Quebec City (2015 pop. 541,000) would be #1. No homicides yet this year.

Impressive

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by softee

Quebec City (2015 pop. 541,000) would be #1. No homicides yet this year.

And Montreal would likely be second, with 7 murders so far this year in a population of 2 million (0.35/100,000).

[Tosin007]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

nevertheless, if I had spent the first 6 months of this year in either Edmondon or LA, my likelihood of being murdered would be about the same (setting aside the demographics of homicide in both cities).

I thought this thread was about 2016 homicides, not 1996-2016 homicides?

Its not the same! Their are no Men that have to stand trail for Murdering 5 People for no reason @ random in Edmonton like their are in Los Angeles!
This ACTUALLY happened in Los Angeles. It NEVER has in Edmonton this year. Theirs NO Campus Shootings either. Also an Old Woman was shot @ in a Los Angeles BUS again NEVER happened in Edmonton, infact it NEVER has. The Vast Majority of Edmonton Homicides this year where gang related. You can't even say that in LA, (if you did you'd be lying). So no Los Angeles "Safety" is NOT the same as the safety in Edmonton.

[Tosin007]

Originally Posted by Pavlov's Dog

Looking at the FBI data for 2014 it would indeed be #1 by a large margin among cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants. San Diego is at 2.3 but of course includes massive areas that would be low crime suburbs of most typical cities.

Toronto had a murder rate of 2.0 in 2012 and Vancouver 1.2. Canada as a whole has a rate of 1.6

I don't have city level data but the national averages for the following countries is: Australia 1.3, England and Wales 1.0, Ireland 1.0, New Zealand 0.9, Sweden .9

Among major cities I found 2009 data with the following homicide rates: Amsterdam 4.4, Glasgow 3.3, Brussels 3, Prague 2.7, Seoul 2.4, Warsaw 1.9, Berlin 1.8, London 1.6, Helsinki 1.2, Oslo 1.2, Vienna 1.1, Madrid 1, Tokyo 0.4, Lisbon 0.2

It will be interesting to see if this is a permanent development or a statistical blip and we will see Portland revert to the mean.

BTW, does anyone have any good data on crime rates for metropolitan areas? I feel that would be a much better comparison than city vs. city given the varying inclusion of typical suburban areas within a city limits.

Actually Canada's Rates are 1.4 Per 100,000! Its been that way for a few years now!
Also Portland's rates are not actually that low. QC in Canada is at Zero, Montreal is like 0.35 & Calgary where I live is still under 1 Per 100,000!
11 Murder's so far this year! Population! 1,235,171 (April 1st, 2016)!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert...censuses,_2016

[toddguy]

whatever

Columbus is at 58.
http://www.dispatch.com/content/stor...ng-charge.html

[Austin55]

god damn Canada why do you ya'll gotta go be so perfect

[Tosin007]

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-...tawa-standards

Ottawa is @ 10! (Bad year for Ottawa?) Basically 1 Per-100,000 (Still the tinest bit lower than Portland I guess). Population: 960,756 (2015)
So Canada now has 4 Cities that can compete with Portland in the US so far this year with Rates still lower than its 1.1, Montreal, Calgary, Ottawa, & Quebec City!

Anyway its laughable that the Article went on to say this!
"Ottawa's having a bad year for homicides — at least by our standards!
The death of Jeremy Mack last weekend was Ottawa’s tenth homicide of 2016, with five months still to go."

So basically 3 Canadian Cities this year are substantially larger than Portland & still safer Cities. "Quebec City" is the only one with a smaller
Municipal Population But over Half a Million is still pretty good for zero murder's.

[Tosin007]

Is Vancouver still @ 4 or no? Its the tiniest bit bigger than Portland too, (By maybe a few Tens of Thousands). Its Metro is bigger too!
I guess u can add that to the list of the other 4 Canadian Cities that still have rates below 1.1 Per 100,000!

http://vancouversun.com/news/crime/v...2016-confirmed

[Tosin007]

http://www.am980.ca/2016/05/29/polic...icide-of-2016/

London Ontario is still at 2 no?
Population 400,000 (Almost).

[dc_denizen]

Originally Posted by Tosin007

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-...tawa-standards

Ottawa is @ 10! (Bad year for Ottawa?) Basically 1 Per-100,000 (Still the tinest bit lower than Portland I guess). Population: 960,756 (2015)
So Canada now has 4 Cities that can compete with Portland in the US so far this year with Rates still lower than its 1.1, Montreal, Calgary, Ottawa, & Quebec City!

Anyway its laughable that the Article went on to say this!
"Ottawa's having a bad year for homicides — at least by our standards!
The death of Jeremy Mack last weekend was Ottawa’s tenth homicide of 2016, with five months still to go."

So basically 3 Canadian Cities this year are substantially larger than Portland & still safer Cities. "Quebec City" is the only one with a smaller
Municipal Population But over Half a Million is still pretty good for zero murder's.

to make those comparisons you need to look at homicide rates for each urbanized area. Canada cities like Ottawa, Calgary and Toronto (and American cities like Indianapolis) have all annexed their suburbs, whereas Portland has not.

[Tosin007]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

to make those comparisons you need to look at homicide rates for each urbanized area. Canada cities like Ottawa, Calgary and Toronto (and American cities like Indianapolis) have all annexed their suburbs, whereas Portland has not.

It doesn't make a difference anyway's, its going to end up being higher for Portland over a much smaller population or land area as well anyway's. Portland Proper is less than 700,000 & is already still higher than Montreal, Calgary, Ottawa, & Vancouver. (So far this year). Not to mention Quebec City, if this is the best that the US can do then I'm sorry for you guys Canada will always be ALOT safer. Impressive though relatively, all these Cities are doing a good Job!

[dc_denizen]

Actually it will make a difference, if major suburbs like Hillsboro, Beaverton and Vancouver WA have lower per capita murder rates than Portland proper, this will reduce the urban areas combined rate

[Tosin007]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

Actually it will make a difference, if major suburbs like Hillsboro, Beaverton and Vancouver WA have lower per capita murder rates than Portland proper, this will reduce the urban areas combined rate

Nonsense Vancouver Washington already has a murder or 2 this year, go a few pages back am I wrong?
http://koin.com/2016/05/11/neighbors...uver-homicide/
"VANCOUVER, Wash. (KOIN) — More than 2 days after a man was found shot to death in a Vancouver apartment home police identified him as Fernando Cendejas-Pardo.
The 31-year-old died from multiple gunshot wounds and his body was found around 4 a.m. Monday in the 4500 block of Nicholson Road."
^Does that sound like ZERO Murders to you? (Vancouver Washington is smaller in population than Quebec City too btw).

& even if all of Portland's Suburbs have less Murder's (Big "If" btw). They won't be bigger in Combined Population's to the City Propers of Montreal, Calgary, or Ottawa. (Your forgetting most US Suburbs are tiny & will not boost the "City Proper" Population's that significantly). & guess what? Even "IF" they did, you still need enough Population to make up for the Fact that the Rates are already over 1 Per 100,000! So u need Minimum 1.1 Million Population Combined (Or better), across Portland's Commuter Belt.

[Pavlov's Dog]

Originally Posted by Austin55

god damn Canada why do you ya'll gotta go be so perfect

Insecure is probably a better term. There is also significant variation within Canada but publishing the murder rates for the varying Provinces and cities doesn't fit the narrative that Tosin007 wants.

According to Statcan, in 2014 Nunavut had a murder rate of 10.9, Manitoba 3.4, Alberta 2.5. Among metros (not cities) you have Thunder Bay at 9, Winnipeg 3.3, Edmonton 3, Calgary 2.2, Vancouver 1.86, Toronto 1.4, Ottawa .7, Quebec .5.

Canada is most definitely a much safer place than the US as a whole but parts of the US are safer than parts of Canada. It's a question of location and locational statistical granularity.