Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by ivegotaname

My guess with who will be premier for New Brunswick next might surprise you as it does me. Everybody lost respect to higgs when he raised the minimum wage by 5 cents but liberals don't have there shit together or a leader with credibility and an election will be called this year I can see it happening. So the two biggest players in NB are not going to win..I do think we will have an NDP leader next and the guy Thomason would have won last election if he was con lib

We are eighteen months into a majority and Higgs is polling about where he did in 2018, as are the Liberals. No election will be called this year or next year.

The NDP are a bunch of student leftists last seen getting 1.5%. They are not forming government in New Brunswick any sooner than the Greens or Alliance, both of whom actually have seats (which they've been reelected in).

The only elections this year will be in the vacant Miramichi ridings, neither of which is must-win for the government.

[Taeolas]

NB's Provincial Budget has been released

The introduction and a bit of overview of where we're at

Economic and fiscal conditions

The 2022-23 budget shows a projected surplus of $35.2 million. Revenues are projected to grow by 1.2 per cent, while spending is expected to grow by 5.5 per cent.

Notable economic developments over the past year include population growth that recently hit a 45-year high, putting the province on the cusp of having its population surpass 800,000. Employment hit an all-time high in November, and housing activity is setting records.

The Department of Finance and Treasury Board projects real GDP growth of 2.2 per cent in 2022.

Steeves said the budget is about maintaining momentum and positioning the province for ongoing sustainable growth by addressing the following issues:

Here is the section on Housing. It sounds good I guess; I'm not in the market and I don't rent so I don't know if there are gotchas or other issues with it.

Housing

• The government will phase in provincial property tax rate reductions over three years beginning with the current property taxation year. This will result in:

o A 50 per cent provincial property tax rate reduction for non-owner-occupied residential properties, including apartment buildings and other rental properties.

o A 15 per cent provincial property tax rate reduction for other residential properties, including nursing homes.

o A 15 per cent provincial property tax rate reduction for non-residential properties.

These measures will reduce provincial property tax revenue by an estimated $45 million in 2022-23 and $112 million once mature. The government will also introduce a one-year cap, retroactive to January 1, 2022, on the allowable increase to rent of 3.8 per cent which is equivalent to the growth in the Consumer Price Index in 2021.

• In addition, the government will introduce further amendments to the Residential Tenancies Act to:

o Eliminate the ability of landlords to terminate a tenancy without cause.

o Allow a tenant to apply to the Residential Tenancies Tribunal to order a landlord to compensate for losses caused by termination without cause.

o Introduce penalties to landlords for non-compliance.

• To further support growth in housing stock, the government will increase spending on affordable housing by $6.3 million this year.

• Opportunities New Brunswick has been provided the flexibility through its loan guarantees to support and stimulate workforce housing opportunities in rural New Brunswick.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Here is the section on Housing. It sounds good I guess; I'm not in the market and I don't rent so I don't know if there are gotchas or other issues with it.

The government will also introduce a one-year cap, retroactive to January 1, 2022, on the allowable increase to rent of 3.8 per cent which is equivalent to the growth in the Consumer Price Index in 2021.

Cap in Ontario is 1.2% for 2022, FWIW. There was no increase permitted in 2021 and 2020 was 2.2%.

[adamuptownsj]

It would be a little hard to say 'no increases this year lol' when inflation is like 7%+ a month and assessments/insurance have both jumped. Hell, I put off raising rents all covid until last month and apparently now a 5% increase is retroactively illegal?

I am extremely disinclined to look to Ontario as a leader in housing policy on any front.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

I am extremely disinclined to look to Ontario as a leader in housing policy on any front.

Just providing context. Ontario hasn't had a rental cap % as high as NB's since 2002. It's good that NB is instituting one to help renters combat rising inflation and housing costs, even if it may only be short-term.

I think it's safe to say that housing policy has been a failure across Canada at all levels of government.

[adamuptownsj]

Besides immigration, a major factor driving this is lower quality postwar housing decaying much faster than its predecessors, robbing people of cheap dated houses. A hundred year old house can sit vacant with no power for a few years and be rehabbed at a reasonable cost, but there's not much, say, 50 year old housing floating around comparatively.

[adamuptownsj]

PA/PC 'merger' basically takes any chance of an early election off the table. 26-21 majority grows to 28-19. The two byelections in Miramichi look likely to go blue now too. So Higgs gets at least two years to govern without being beholden to constant Covid disruption or a minority government.

The real question is when does Higgs shuffle the cabinet to promote Austin and Conroy and demote Cardy and presumably Green? Cardy in particular- he seems destined to depart both cabinet and the PCs before too long. I don't think Austin would get Education but I'm no expert.

Conroy actually speaks French fluently, IIRC, and Savoie is not in great health, so Francophonie would be an ironic if realistic gig for her.

At this point talk of whether Higgs seeks a third term is worth having. He'll 'only' be 70 by October 2024. Austin immediately becomes a contender for leadership if he retires, whether he'd have a chance is impossible to tell this far out.

Not arguing over the merits or lack thereof. Just what I think could happen.

[Feneant]

I don't follow politics all that much but I really like Conroy and Austin. I think he is a charismatic guy that has his priorities in the right place. I've supported the PA for years and never felt like they had any kind of anti-French sentiment, they simply promote equality for everyone, which is never a bad thing.

Pre-Higgs I'm not sure how this would have worked but I think they have a good synergy with him so this makes sense. The obvious downside is in the minds of some ignorant circle, this has transformed NB into a PC for the English, Liberals for the French province- and considering the leadership troubles of the liberals, we might be in PC territory for a while yet.

And like I always post in a thread where I show support for Mr. Austin- je suis francophone.

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by Feneant

I don't follow politics all that much but I really like Conroy and Austin. I think he is a charismatic guy that has his priorities in the right place. I've supported the PA for years and never felt like they had any kind of anti-French sentiment, they simply promote equality for everyone, which is never a bad thing.

Pre-Higgs I'm not sure how this would have worked but I think they have a good synergy with him so this makes sense. The obvious downside is in the minds of some ignorant circle, this has transformed NB into a PC for the English, Liberals for the French province- and considering the leadership troubles of the liberals, we might be in PC territory for a while yet.

And like I always post in a thread where I show support for Mr. Austin- je suis francophone.

The anti-french narrative was always a stretch. They were quite vocal about being against strict language requirements for jobs or language over qualifications/expertise/experience, which I can agree is an issue.

There are nearly a hundred paramedic positions posted withing ambulance NB every month or two, most of which require bilingualism and are reposted and reposted being filled (or not filled) by paramedics on a temporary basis. Some of these medics have been in the position for years as a temp, but not able to be truly fulltime as it is a bilingual position. The same could be said for many nursing positions. People eventually get tired of waiting for one of the precious full-time unilingual positions to open up and just leave the profession for more stable employment, and the system as a whole suffers.

These sorts of practices benefit no-one and should stop.

[adamuptownsj]

Dual school busses as well- God forbid kids hear a different language and make friends with its speakers in the morning and after school.

Objectively it's smart for the PCs to consolidate even more of the conservative Anglo vote, especially in the Miramichi and the western York/Carlton areas. Let's say 2/3 (6-7% of the total electorate) of their potential voters go PC, and the rest (3-4%) scatter. That's still a notable gain, especially when precisely none of it is coming from Madawaska-Restigouche-Gloucester's 10 seats, and very little in Kent and Moncton-Dieppe-Shediac. They did poorly in the Saint John area too.

When I say none I mean none- the PA only ran candidates in Kent South and Shediac Bay-Dieppe among the very French ridings, and Victoria-La Vallee and Miramichi Bay-Neguac among the quite French ridings, in 2020. In 2018 the only French seats they ran in were Campbellton-Dalhousie and Miramichi Bay-Neguac. So that ~10% of the vote is deceptively small and will have great impact in must-win PC areas and little impact where they don't need it to win.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Feneant

I don't follow politics all that much but I really like Conroy and Austin. I think he is a charismatic guy that has his priorities in the right place. I've supported the PA for years and never felt like they had any kind of anti-French sentiment, they simply promote equality for everyone, which is never a bad thing.

Pre-Higgs I'm not sure how this would have worked but I think they have a good synergy with him so this makes sense. The obvious downside is in the minds of some ignorant circle, this has transformed NB into a PC for the English, Liberals for the French province- and considering the leadership troubles of the liberals, we might be in PC territory for a while yet.

And like I always post in a thread where I show support for Mr. Austin- je suis francophone.

I tend to agree with you.

I have never voted PA, but I like both Conroy and Austin, and I actually think either one is potential cabinet material.

What we are witnessing is a "unite the right, NB style". This will be good for the PC brand. Neither Austin or Conroy are extreme by any measure. They are linguistic pragmatists, not anti-French per se.

What is unfortunate, is that what is also occurring is a further step down the road where the PCs are viewed as the English party, and the Liberals are viewed as the Acadian party. I think this process will continue, at least into the near to intermediate future. This is unfortunate, as this hardening of the divide will only end up limiting choice for individual voters.

What is driving this hardening is the slavish and dogmatic attention to rigid bilingualism, which doesn't do anyone any good. Linguistic inflexibility just breeds anger and resentment where such feelings really shouldn't have to exist. A natural side effect is tribalism (or a circling of the wagons), hence the hard political divide developing in the province, with a francophone Liberal north and an anglophone Conservative south.

It will be interesting to see what transpires in the province over the next couple of decades, but, barring an unusually incompetent PC government we will likely be entering an era of PC (English) governance with Liberal (Acadian) opposition, at least until some common sense in the language debate takes hold. The only potential swing seats will be in the Moncton area.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I tend to agree with you.

I have never voted PA, but I like both Conroy and Austin, and I actually think either one is potential cabinet material.

What we are witnessing is a "unite the right, NB style". This will be good for the PC brand. Neither Austin or Conroy are extreme by any measure. They are linguistic pragmatists, not anti-French per se.

What is unfortunate, is that what is also occurring is a further step down the road where the PCs are viewed as the English party, and the Liberals are viewed as the Acadian party. I think this process will continue, at least into the near to intermediate future. This is unfortunate, as this hardening of the divide will only end up limiting choice for individual voters.

What is driving this hardening is the slavish and dogmatic attention to rigid bilingualism, which doesn't do anyone any good. Linguistic inflexibility just breeds anger and resentment where such feelings really shouldn't have to exist. A natural side effect is tribalism (or a circling of the wagons), hence the hard political divide developing in the province, with a francophone Liberal north and an anglophone Conservative south.

It will be interesting to see what transpires in the province over the next couple of decades, but, barring an unusually incompetent PC government we will likely be entering an era of PC (English) governance with Liberal (Acadian) opposition, at least until some common sense in the language debate takes hold. The only potential swing seats will be in the Moncton area.

This is complicated by the Greens somewhat. I could see a uniquely poor PC performance resulting in Greens taking some urban seats, but the Greens also compete with the Liberals in Westmoreland and Kent. That would likely require new leadership and some moderation, though. The Liberal brand is functionally dead in nearly 30 ridings and could fall into a negative spiral as they become the political wing of the SANB. A Green-backed Liberal minority is what we would probably get at some point, but that would start out with the larger party almost entirely in ultra-safe seats and the minor party in swing or lean-PC seats, which would be difficult to manage.

This also permanently kills electoral reform as no sane PC government would ever cede power to hyper-high-turnout Gloucester County and Dieppe/Shediac at the expense of their own turf.

There seems to be some discontent in the ex-PA ranks as its planned candidates for the Miramichi byelection, some directors, and a past president are all in the TJ very upset. It remains to be seen if they spin up a new PA equivalent. If the bulk of party activists don't go with the flow, who knows what could happen?

[Feneant]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

There seems to be some discontent in the ex-PA ranks as its planned candidates for the Miramichi byelection, some directors, and a past president are all in the TJ very upset. It remains to be seen if they spin up a new PA equivalent. If the bulk of party activists don't go with the flow, who knows what could happen?

Far as I am concerned, the party started and ended with Mr. Austin. I voted for his party, without him I would no longer vote PA.

And unfortunately with this new change and expected division between the linguistic areas of NB I will also never be able to vote liberal in the future because of their association to the SANB, even though I have done so many times in the past.

[MonctonRad]

Found this in the T&T:



https://tj.news/telegraph-journal/101866111?ref=newsletter (paywall)

The author is an amateur cartographer from Ontario, but one with a history of working with various provinces across the country redrawing electoral boundaries. This is his proposal for redrawing the federal boundaries in NB for the next election.

The main takeaway is the removal of one riding from the north, essentially creating a new riding in the KV, extending up to and including Sussex.

The rest is mostly a rejigging of boundaries, to accommodate the changes. Riverview would be lopped of the Moncton/Riverview/Dieppe riding, and would be included with Albert and western portions of Westmorland County into a truncated (and presumably renamed Fundy Royal). The new Moncton/Dieppe riding would have an altered linguistic dynamic with the loss of Riverview. The ratio would be more 50/50 rather than 65/35.

There would be six anglophone ridings, three francophone ridings, and then the bilingual Moncton/Dieppe riding. This would closely parallel the province's actual linguistic makeup.

Thoughts???

[Bishop2047]

^
I am not against this at all.

I would prefer language to have less influence, and seperate population centers and their feeder communities being the primary means of creating electoral boundaries. Obviously language plays a part in this, but it's not the primary driver.

[josh_cat_eyes]

One thing I don’t like is how big the ridings are in the middle of the province and the west side of the province bordering Maine. It seems foolish that Plaster Rock and St. Stephen would be in the same riding. I do like the redrawn Fundy Royal though, it makes a lot of sense. Everything else makes sense.

[Taeolas]

Yeah the western riding and the central ridings feel a bit overlarge, but they also have population issues.

Having grown up in Woodstock, being the federal "Fish and Chips" riding is what we're a bit used to; but we really should be cut off around Fredericton and maybe fed most of the central forests since there's barely anyone there.

The problem is, what do you do with the stubs. The fundy coast would have to be folded into the Saint JOhn area ridings somehow. And probably a bigger challenge, Miramichi would probably end up in an Easts Coast "mega" riding instead, stretching down to Sackville and Shediac; basically the same problem as the western riding, except now we have a city in there weighing down the Sackville/Shediac part.

[ColSJ]

Not a fan of roping Saint John- Rothesay north through Grand Bay- Westfield and up into the smaller rural communities and to west towards Lepreau. These areas are heavily conservative and it would scratch at the voting power of the city.

Saint John has been doing well in recent years thanks to in part to federal dollars for infrastructure projects like Port Saint John and the up and coming Fundy Quay. I’d hate to see the city lose out on opportunities thanks to a conservative MP that just tugs the party line and never actually does anything. The ridings outside of the city have enough of those and we don’t need another one.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by ColSJ

Not a fan of roping Saint John- Rothesay north through Grand Bay- Westfield and up into the smaller rural communities and to west towards Lepreau. These areas are heavily conservative and it would scratch at the voting power of the city.

Saint John has been doing well in recent years thanks to in part to federal dollars for infrastructure projects like Port Saint John and the up and coming Fundy Quay. I’d hate to see the city lose out on opportunities thanks to a conservative MP that just tugs the party line and never actually does anything. The ridings outside of the city have enough of those and we don’t need another one.

Port refurbishment was announced under Rodney Weston lol. https://www.sjport.com/government-of-can...-improvements-to-the-port-of-saint-john/

All the feds are doing at Fundy Quay is seawall refurbishment.

The Harbour Clean-Up wastewater treatment overhaul was also under Weston's tenure and was much more costly. After Zed we've had two MPs ok at pork barrel spending, which is better than many small cities can say.

Regardless, this would just swap Rothesay, which isn't exactly left wing turf, for rural turf below Gagetown, in order to free up those Rothesay voters for the new KV seat, which they fit better in. And honestly if NB SW is gone, you can only place GBW and environs with Saint John without crossing a ferry or driving through an empty base for 30 minutes.

[ivegotaname]

. I think we should go American style and remove king and queen as head of state and money. Ditch Canadian dollars and use American. We couldn't be ignored by all 3 North American countries? Right ? I'm into progress and want to live the best life under a country that cares about us not because we are cheaper and better lovers n funniest people on earth