US Census Bureau data for Austin and other cities

[GoldenBoot]

According to the (July 1, 2022) estimates -

5 County Austin Metro = 2,421,115 (+6.03% from 2020 Census)
8 County San Antonio Metro = 2,655,342 (+3.80% from 2020 Census)

**13 County Austin-San Antonio Corridor is now over 5 million - 5,076,457 (+4.85% from 2020 Census)

[ATXboom]

So as of last summer metro was roughly 2,420,000. This summer we should be over 2.5M.

[ATX2030]

Originally Posted by GoldenBoot

According to the estimates -

5 County Austin Metro = 2,421,115 (+6.03% from 2020 Census)
8 County San Antonio Metro = 2,655,342 (+3.80% from 2020 Census)

**13 County Austin-San Antonio Corridor is now over 5 million - 5,076,457 (+4.85% from 2020 Census)

Add in the ever encroaching Bell, Coryell and Lampasas counties and you could add another 500k to the corridor.

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by ATX2030

Add in the ever encroaching Bell, Coryell and Lampasas counties and you could add another 500k to the corridor.

Bell and Coryell are already apart of another metro. Yes, it is growing, but not considered apart of the Austin-San Antonio corridor.

At some point Burnet should be added to the Austin metro. As of the July 1, 2022 estimate, that would add another 52,502.

Yes, as of July 1, 2023, the Austin metro should be nearing the 2.5 million mark. And, within 7-9 years, the Austin metro will surpass the San Antonio metro in total population.

[ATX2030]

Originally Posted by GoldenBoot

Bell is already apart of another metro. Yes, it is growing, but not considered apart of the Austin-San Antonio corridor.

"Coryell???" Did you mean Caldwell? If so, that is already apart of the Austin 5 county metro.

At some point Burnet should be added to the Austin metro. As of the July 1, 2022 estimate, that would add another 52,502.

Yes, as of July 1, 2023, the Austin metro should be nearing the 2.5 million mark.

No. I was referring to Killeen–Temple–Fort Hood. All are as close or closer than S.A to the ATX so they could easily be considered part of the corridor IMO.

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by ATX2030

No. I was referring to Killeen–Temple–Fort Hood. All are as close or closer than S.A to the ATX so they could easily be considered part of the corridor IMO.

Potentially. However, there is a vast rural area between KTFH and Georgetown that does not exist between SA and Austin.

[austlar1]

I wonder how much of the 17,892 gain in Travis County was in the city of Austin? What is the current US Census estimate for Austin?

[freerover]

Originally Posted by austlar1

I wonder how much of the 17,892 gain in Travis County was in the city of Austin? What is the current US Census estimate for Austin?

the official 2020 count was just under 1 million in COA. I believe common consensus is that was an undercount but it is what it is.

[The ATX]

Austin passed Pittsburgh in Metro population and is close to Sacramento.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by ATXboom

So as of last summer metro was roughly 2,420,000. This summer we should be over 2.5M.

It’s going to be close. If we only grew 63k last year then 80k this year is a bit of a stretch

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by austlar1

I wonder how much of the 17,892 gain in Travis County was in the city of Austin? What is the current US Census estimate for Austin?

Please refer to my signature...


The vast majority of Travis County's gain was not in the City of Austin.


Austin's (city) census was undercounted, IMO. By default, the metro would be too. One would think the city should have realized greater growth than the census revealed (especially with all of the infill housing and densification of major arterials).

The city could have filed a complaint - but, I'm not sure they did.

[Mopacs]

Originally Posted by GoldenBoot

Potentially. However, there is a vast rural area between KTFH and Georgetown that does not exist between SA and Austin.

The gaps are filling in quite a bit along the 35 corridor between Georgetown-Jarrell-Salado-Belton-Temple. I was amazed at the amount of residential growth occurring in Jarrell alone, which is just south of the Bell County line. The 195 corridor between Georgetown-Florence-Killeen/Fort Hood is still quite rural, correct.

[drummer]

^^ I was going to say the same. I live in Georgetown on the northern side. The amount of growth heading that direction is nuts - and if you look at plans for new developments in Georgetown city docs, it's expected to continue. Georgetown core is densifying (not "urban" but density nonetheless). And that doesn't include stuff that's just in the county. Jarrell is an example suburban sprawl on another level at this point, but it's still growth. I can't speak to Salado, but I know Florence has rumors of large-scale developments going in. Those two will help to fill the gaps between Temple/Belton/Killeen, but they're still small towns right now. Others are even smaller.

I have to wonder about other tiny towns east of I-35. Granger, Weir, Barlett, etc. Not much happening at the moment, but once more roads get built, those will likely explode like Hutto did back in the day. That used to be a bump on the road - so did Liberty Hill.

[Novacek]

city population estimates just released (2022 numbers)

They have Austin at 974k.

Finally top 10, but about to be jumped by Jacksonville and Fort Worth.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/subcounty-metro-micro-estimates.html


Growth of about 5k from their 2021 estimate, which itself was up less than 4k from the 2020 number.


I'm not sure I believe it (9k in 2 years). Seems like we've added something like 30k housing units in that time.

[The ATX]

Three of the five fastest growing cities are Austin suburbs: Georgetown, Kyle & Leander.

[GoldenBoot]

^^^Correct. I would expect to see this - as Austin's housing prices have been inflated for the past three years. As they come back down to "normal," I would expect to see the percent increase for Austin proper to tick more upward.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by GoldenBoot

^^^Correct. I would expect to see this - as Austin's housing prices have been inflated for the past three years. As they come back down to "normal," I would expect to see the percent increase for Austin proper to tick more upward.

IMO, that inverts the cause/effect.

Prices (and rents) are high because demand is high. Vacancy is low.

That doesn't seem to track with the idea that the population is almost the same as spring 2020.

[paul78701]

Originally Posted by Novacek

Growth of about 5k from their 2021 estimate, which itself was up less than 4k from the 2020 number.


I'm not sure I believe it (9k in 2 years). Seems like we've added something like 30k housing units in that time.

It states that we've added nearly 28k housing units. That definitely does not seem to track with 5k population growth.

Harris County, Texas (32,694); Maricopa County, Arizona (28,051); Travis County, Texas (27,927); Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania (24,701); and Los Angeles County, California (21,738), were the five counties with the largest numeric gains in housing units between July 1, 2021, and July 1, 2022.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by paul78701

It states that we've added nearly 28k housing units. That definitely does not seem to track with 5k population growth.

I was thinking of separate numbers the city tracks (based on permit and certificate of occupancy) for just within city limits.

I can't for the life of me find where that data was, but I did find this interesting map tracking square footage.

https://data.austintexas.gov/stories/s/New-Residential-Development-in-Austin/wq6n-itt3/

CoA added about 16M square feet of multifamily housing for each of 2019/20/21, and even more (24M) in 2022.

Even ignoring SF (assuming a lot of it is tear down and rebuild) most MF development is additive (even redevelopments end up adding lots of units).

At a guestimate of 1k sq ft per unit, that's 16k added units in 2021 and so forth. Vacancy may have slightly moderated but it's not dropping like a rock.

Only 5k growth seems odd. We lost a lot of children already, so maybe that's continued, but seems like we'd have to have lost a lot of people per existing unit.

[The ATX]

Austin is now the 26th largest metro after passing Pittsburgh and Sacramento.