Halifax Population & Growth

[q12]

Stats Canada population estimates for Subprovincial areas, July 1, 2022

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...30111c-eng.htm

For some reason they based this on the OLD 2016 census and 2016 geographical Classification

Based on these latest estimates the Halifax CMA is 480,582 + 22,892 (2021 East Hants) + 2,739 (2021 Indian brook) = 506,213

Therefore the Halifax CMA July 1st 2022 Estimate is 506,213

Halifax's current population is likely 510,000 or higher in January 2023.

[terrynorthend]

Originally Posted by q12

Therefore the Halifax CMA July 1st 2022 Estimate is 506,213

Halifax's current population is likely 510,000 or higher in January 2023.

Wow! Easily over 510k now, given the pace HRM is growing at.

NS grew by ~30k last year, so HRM is garnering about 2/3 of net migration. If NS tracks its 2M goal for 2060, Halifax should be a 1M sometime in the 2040s.

Infrastructure planning needs to be happening now.

[q12]

By the end of 2023 Halifax's CMA population is likely going to be around 535,000 - 540,000.

We needed real Transit yesterday.

[someone123]

Yeah, this shows how out of touch some of the planning is. The BRT plan the province is dragging its heels on is perhaps already undersized for what the city will look like when it is complete (# of vehicles, etc.). The HRM population growth numbers I have seen have been off from what has happened even going back many years at this point.

And when looking at something like LRT, Halifax would not actually be some kind of unusually small outlier. If planning began today for such a system the city would have 600-700k by the time the system started operating.

Due to how much residential intensification is happening there is likely to be really strong demand for transit in some areas that I'm not sure the municipality or province understands yet. Bus service will be possible but it'll likely be quite congested.

[egb]

I've been wondering if we are due for a bit of a population growth pullback this year in Halifax/NS as last year was so record breaking.

Turns out IRCC posts monthly immigration data by city and province and in the first three months of 2022 there were 3245 permanent residents coming to NS and over the same time frame in 2023 it went up to 3930.

Sooo maybe not.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by egb

I've been wondering if we are due for a bit of a population growth pullback this year in Halifax/NS as last year was so record breaking.

Turns out IRCC posts monthly immigration data by city and province and in the first three months of 2022 there were 3245 permanent residents coming to NS and over the same time frame in 2023 it went up to 3930.

Sooo maybe not.

Numbers are here by CMA. What's really interesting is how Halifax has gone from being a complete laggard to a leading Canadian city. On a per-capita basis, the city's immigrant intake this Q1 is slightly lower than Vancouver, essentially on par with Toronto, higher than Calgary (which I find surprising) and way higher than Ottawa. Similar numbers evident in last year's Q1 as well--in fact, Halifax ended 2022 with greater per-capita intake than any of those cities.

I don't want to count all our chickens here. Lord knows this is a pretty recent trend. But it's a pretty dramatic shift.

[someone123]

There are a lot of narratives around how this is an aberration that don't really make sense. For example a lot of people saying that growth in Halifax was just a post-covid blip (people moving away due to lockdowns or remote work and so on) or that there's some kind of housing cost differential that will quickly be solved. But growth picked up around 2015 or so, the immigration rate happening now is government policy that could continue for years, and we haven't seen any major real estate correction. These things could change but nobody knows exactly when. I don't know what will happen but I think Canada will be in a high population growth regime for a while and the Maritimes won't be a below average or troubled region that struggles to attract its proportionate share of that pie.

I see comments as well about Halifax being unfriendly to developers and I have seen some statistics about slow development times. This might be true but my impression is that it's systematically worse around here and maybe in Toronto, and much worse in some other cities, while the Prairies may be more developer friendly. I wonder if the statistics are sometimes wrong, for example failing to account for pre-zoned developments. If city A is zoned for 30 storey towers anywhere but takes 3 years to approve a 40 storey tower while city B is zoned for detached houses and takes 90 days to approve townhouses, city A is more developer friendly.

[Nouvellecosse]

I suspect that with immigration it's a matter of needing a "seed" of pioneers in the sense that many people are reluctant to move to an area where there are few or no people and businesses of their ethnicity. But once a community is established, even if quite modest, it acts as a sort of entry point allowing people to form social connections and get supports before they've had time to integrate. Especially if they have friends or family here or if they need ESL training.

[egb]

That all makes a lot of sense, and I definitely don't expect growth to slow down thatttt much but it is worth acknowledging that growth over the past year has been wild. Q1 2022 - Q1 2023, Nova Scotia grew 3.5%. Keep that up for even more three years and you're talking about a difference of 80,000 people relative to growing at 1% per year.

(Q1 2026 population would be 1.07M at 1% over three years, while it would be 1.15M at 3.5%)

Here's to hoping we can keep it up!

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

Numbers are here by CMA. What's really interesting is how Halifax has gone from being a complete laggard to a leading Canadian city. On a per-capita basis, the city's immigrant intake this Q1 is slightly lower than Vancouver, essentially on par with Toronto, higher than Calgary (which I find surprising) and way higher than Ottawa. Similar numbers evident in last year's Q1 as well--in fact, Halifax ended 2022 with greater per-capita intake than any of those cities.

I don't want to count all our chickens here. Lord knows this is a pretty recent trend. But it's a pretty dramatic shift.

I think this may reflect the type of immigration that has formed a large part of this surge. A big chunk is people already in Canada having their status adjusted. Many former students. It would make sense that Halifax has per capita more of these immigrants than other areas.

[someone123]

Not sure about what it looks like on the ground but there's been a dramatic increase in the range of content you see online directed at people who want to move to Halifax. A lot of it is not in English and it is targeted at a variety of populations including people living abroad or in other parts of Canada. I think the city is being considered more broadly as a destination, a more diverse group is moving there, and it's not just an artifact in a change of status like students who were already there being given PR.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

Numbers are here by CMA. What's really interesting is how Halifax has gone from being a complete laggard to a leading Canadian city. On a per-capita basis, the city's immigrant intake this Q1 is slightly lower than Vancouver, essentially on par with Toronto, higher than Calgary (which I find surprising) and way higher than Ottawa. Similar numbers evident in last year's Q1 as well--in fact, Halifax ended 2022 with greater per-capita intake than any of those cities.

I don't want to count all our chickens here. Lord knows this is a pretty recent trend. But it's a pretty dramatic shift.

Perhaps local politics is swaying the numbers. Sean Fraser is from N.S. and being Immigration minister perhaps numbers are being directed East. MTV can't take everyone.

[Drybrain]

Another striking observation: this change is making the city much more diverse at an extremely rapid pace, even more quickly than the already accelerated pace of the past few years.

i.e., the 2021 census showed a dramatic increase in Halifax's visible minority population, from about 11 percent to 17 percent of the total, a 55 percent jump in five years. Presumably that has a lot to do with the fact that between Q3 2016 and Q2 2021 (roughly the data collection period for the '21 census) the city added 18,690 newcomers.

But in the seven quarters between Q3 2021 and Q1 2023, the city added another 18,110. In other words, we're probably surpassing the five-year immigrant intake from the last census period right around now,only two-fifths of the way to the next census. I expect an even bigger shift in the city's demographic profile come the '26 census.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

Another striking observation: this change is making the city much more diverse at an extremely rapid pace, even more quickly than the already accelerated pace of the past few years.

i.e., the 2021 census showed a dramatic increase in Halifax's visible minority population, from about 11 percent to 17 percent of the total, a 55 percent jump in five years. Presumably that has a lot to do with the fact that between Q3 2016 and Q2 2021 (roughly the data collection period for the '21 census) the city added 18,690 newcomers.

But in the seven quarters between Q3 2021 and Q1 2023, the city added another 18,110. In other words, we're probably surpassing the five-year immigrant intake from the last census period right around now,only two-fifths of the way to the next census. I expect an even bigger shift in the city's demographic profile come the '26 census.

A Friend of Mine that now lives in Toronto has commented that one of the reasons he and his wife moved to Toronto from Halifax back in 2000 was a lack of diversity and Food choices and generally a late 90's Meh energy.

He travels back to Halifax at least twice a year to maintain a rental property and of course visit family and friends. He is blown away at the energy, Construction, diversity and the explosion of Food choices in the City now.
He even gets lost from time to time. A very different and positive City now.

[someone123]

Toronto had pretty meh energy around 2000 too although a much bigger city will have more going on in not so great times. I think in retrospect the era of the 1990's was quite bad for Halifax in particular (with layoffs and an overall bad economy), there was a hangover in the 2000's, and that set up a "norm" of how people viewed the city locally and elsewhere that faded slowly.

Back around that time Vancouver used to change very dramatically over the course of just a few years and Toronto began booming a bit earlier. Now Halifax has that feel where if you are away for a couple years and go back it is a different city. Inner city Vancouver has lost the rapid transformation feel a bit. Montreal was kind of dire in past years too but always bigger and denser than Halifax so the core retained more vibrancy.

I will say though that even during the doldrums there was a moderate amount of construction activity and Halifax was never really that dead. There were a few highrises built around Spring Garden Road in the 2000's and Bishop's Landing was from 1999 or so.

[worldlyhaligonian]

Originally Posted by someone123

There are a lot of narratives around how this is an aberration that don't really make sense. For example a lot of people saying that growth in Halifax was just a post-covid blip (people moving away due to lockdowns or remote work and so on) or that there's some kind of housing cost differential that will quickly be solved. But growth picked up around 2015 or so, the immigration rate happening now is government policy that could continue for years, and we haven't seen any major real estate correction. These things could change but nobody knows exactly when. I don't know what will happen but I think Canada will be in a high population growth regime for a while and the Maritimes won't be a below average or troubled region that struggles to attract its proportionate share of that pie.

I see comments as well about Halifax being unfriendly to developers and I have seen some statistics about slow development times. This might be true but my impression is that it's systematically worse around here and maybe in Toronto, and much worse in some other cities, while the Prairies may be more developer friendly. I wonder if the statistics are sometimes wrong, for example failing to account for pre-zoned developments. If city A is zoned for 30 storey towers anywhere but takes 3 years to approve a 40 storey tower while city B is zoned for detached houses and takes 90 days to approve townhouses, city A is more developer friendly.

Really though, nobody wants to live out there... it's a joke. Look at the climate and quality of life in Halifax and the maritimes. Sure, there are the people complaining, but they don't bother to actually contribute.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by worldlyhaligonian

Really though, nobody wants to live out there... it's a joke. Look at the climate and quality of life in Halifax and the maritimes. Sure, there are the people complaining, but they don't bother to actually contribute.

Out there? The Prairies?

It is a bit funny on SSP with some people posting that Halifax weather is awful compared to Toronto but not bringing it up with Ottawa or Calgary while Winnipeg gets roughly the same sort of caveat. It seems to be going away now but for a long time there was a big disconnect between perception of the Maritimes and reality, with the gap being biggest for Halifax, central NS, and maybe PEI or Moncton.

[worldlyhaligonian]

Originally Posted by someone123

Out there? The Prairies?

It is a bit funny on SSP with some people posting that Halifax weather is awful compared to Toronto but not bringing it up with Ottawa or Calgary while Winnipeg gets roughly the same sort of caveat. It seems to be going away now but for a long time there was a big disconnect between perception of the Maritimes and reality, with the gap being biggest for Halifax, central NS, and maybe PEI or Moncton.

Yes - I've lived out west and the winter begins in November (sometimes October) and is relentless.

Halifax didn't even have a snowfall until January of 2023!

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by worldlyhaligonian

Yes - I've lived out west and the winter begins in November (sometimes October) and is relentless.

Halifax didn't even have a snowfall until January of 2023!

SHHH Other Canadians may catch on and we'll be like Vancouver with Winter Sun.

[Keith P.]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

SHHH Other Canadians may catch on and we'll be like Vancouver with Winter Sun.

Our weather is somewhat like Vancouver but with more snow in the winter and crappier weather during the spring and summer. Still, it’s better than the Prairies or many other spots in Canada.