VIA Rail

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by someone123

Not sure what "designated HSR corridor" means.

In the US, the Designated HSR Corridors I showed are some of the routes that the FRA has decided could benefit from High Speed Rail. There is no guarantee that any of them will be built, but there is more hope for them than anywhere else in the US. There is federal matching funding to study and build HSR along these corridors.

In Canada, I included the Quebec-Windsor corridor as it has been studied lots and is the closest we have to a "Designated HSR Corridor."

It is not very high speed around Vancouver and I doubt there will be a high-speed train connecting Vancouver to Eugene or whatever that dot is for some time.

Its actually more likely than one would think. Last year, Washington State approved a spending measure of US$150 million (CA$192 million) to proceed with advanced planning work on the proposed Cascadia high-speed rail passenger service linking Vancouver, Seattle, and Portland (an extension to Eugene would likely need to be paid for by Oregon), and the project has the backing of both Microsoft and Amazon.

A full map of the FRA Designated HSR Corridors can be found here:


By Federal Railroad Administration - http://www.fra.dot.gov/Downloads/RRdev/hsrmap-lv.pdf, Public Domain, Link

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

When I think about current and future tenders/projects, there are few things I am hopeful happens:

1) I am hoping that HSR is picked over just HFR. The sections between Toronto- Ottawa - Montreal should be HSR. I hope it can sustain average speeds of over 200 km/hr. I hope it is electric.

IMHO, if they do HSR at all, it will only be high speed between Havelock and Glen Taye (or maybe Peterborough and Smiths Falls). They might do some upgrades to the existing track to allow Higher Speed Rail (HrSR), but I think the cost of HSR on the entire TOM route will make that a non-starter.

2) I hope the long distance replacement fleet arrives sooner than later. It is needed if we want to see those services maintained or improved.

While I would would like to see the long distance fleet replaced, I have my doubts, as the sticker shock on the cost of replacing the entire long distance fleet will scare away even the most spendthrift government. They might buy some extra, short venture trainsets (similar to what ONR bought) for use on the Skeena, White River and Northern Quebec routes. If Siemens build sleeper venture cars for Amtrak, VIA might buy a few of those (since it would be easier to get them approved for use in Canada than something totally new for us), for use on the train to Churchill and maybe the Ocean.

I suspect the Canadian's days are numbered. While it might be the route closest to breaking even on operational costs outside of the corridor, the requirement for long trains, combined with drawn out schedule means it will be the most expensive to replace. The government will likely come up with a line about the importance of continuing to use heritage equipment on this historic train to kick the ball down the field for a future government until it eventually dies a death of a thousand papercuts.

3) I hope that when HSR between Toronto- Ottawa - Montreal happens, they can move those trains to other parts of Canada for new more regional rail,such as Calgary - Edmonton and Saint John - Moncton - Fredericton.

As I said in another post, HSR doesn't remove the need for intercity trains. If anything it will increase the need for them and they will require even more equipment. Besides, the corridor fleet will no longer be owned by VIA Rail by then, as the consortium will likely own all of it.

4) I hope that when they replace the Budd cars for 185/186 that they extend it to Toronto and Winnipeg along the CP line.

Using sleeper equipment or overnighting in Sudbury (or maybe White River since that is close to the half way point between Toronto and Winnipeg)?

5) I hope that when they order the long distance replacement fleet that they order enough to go to a daily schedule for all of those routes. I also hope that when they order the long distance replacement fleet that they order enough to add new services, especially on the Prairies.

As I said, I don't think they will receive enough to replace all of the equipment that they currently have, let alone enough to add new services.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

If we are going to talk about building and expanding HSR in Canada, the first section would be Toronto - Peterborough - Ottawa - Montreal. Once that opens, and once Via sees it a success, then the next sections would be Montreal - Trois Rivier - Quebec City and Toronto - Kitchener - London - Windsor. At the same time, they may also do Calgary - Edmonton.

That is easily 20-30 years of work right there. HFR as currently planned is only Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal-Quebec and in the best case scenario enters service in the mid 2030s. Nobody has even started planning for Toronto-Windsor or Calgary-Edmonton. Design studies have not been funded. There's no project offices. There's no contract for Owner's Engineers. Etc. All of that took the Liberal government 6-7 years to do before even starting the RFQ process. And we're still not even at RFP. Let alone contract award.

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

With those done, anything after this is all political.

I would expect that they would do the triangle on the Prairies of Calgary- Edmonton - Regina - Saskatoon - Winnipeg. Basically following the CN/CP lines east/west and also connecting Regina and Saskatoon.

I can also see something between Saint John/Fredericton - Moncton - Halifax.

Beyond that, they would need a push to connect those sections.

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Nothing rail related will come from NS. The problem is they are not able to think outside of a bus service.

Other than extensions to any existing service in Alberta, Ontario, Quebec or BC, the Maritimes have the best shot at a new service. Just over 400 km actually connects three regional centres (Halifax, Moncton and Saint John). Meanwhile Winnipeg to Saskatoon is nearly 800 km and Winnipeg to Regina is nearly 600 km. Edmonton-Saskatoon is over 500 km. Calgary-Lethbridge is about 800 km if you want to hit population centres like Medicine Hat. Toronto to Windsor via Kitchener and London is 430 km for b reference.

Just add up the CMA populations and divide by km using say Google Maps driving distances and you'll get a rough idea of population density on corridors. The Saint John-Moncton-Halifax corridor has much higher population density than Winnipeg-Saskatoon. This is despite the fact that Maritime cities are substantially smaller.

There will never be a business case to build dedicated passenger corridors in the Prairies. Not at those distances for that low population density. Not in our lifetime. And not in the next. Maybe if Regina and Saskatoon become 1M+ cities and Medicine Hat grows to the same size as London, ON today....

And just to show these contexts, without even using the GTA:

Montreal-Trois Rivieres-Quebec City: 19 800 residents per km

Halifax-Moncton-Saint John: 1810 residents per km

Winnipeg-Saskatoon: 1467 residents per km

And despite Montreal-Trois Rivieres-Quebec having that density, the original business case said they couldn't make it work going to Quebec City. The government had to basically force CIB and VIA to include the Quebec extension. It's probably why we're getting HFR and not HSR between Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal. So if it was a hard sell at nearly 20 000 residents per km, the idea that anybody is going to build at less than 1500 residents per km is laughable.

Beyond Quebec-Windsor and Calgary-Edmonton, I only see Vancouver-Seattle, Montreal-Boston. Any other corridor would have to be regular rail service running on the freight rail network.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Just add up the CMA populations and divide by km using say Google Maps driving distances and you'll get a rough idea of population density on corridors. The Saint John-Moncton-Halifax corridor has much higher population density than Winnipeg-Saskatoon. This is despite the fact that Maritime cities are substantially smaller.

In the Maritimes the small towns are also relatively populated compared to the cities. As one example the Truro CA is a little over 45k now. Rural Kings County NS has a population density of just under 30 per square km while PEI is just a bit lower.

The population along the 1 hour route going from Halifax to Truro is likely 600,000 or so today. A majority of the population of NS, and the rest is dependent on that corridor in some way, connecting westward via Halifax or eastward via Truro. Truro gets all of the traffic (including bus route) from New Glasgow-Sydney.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by someone123

In the Maritimes the small towns are also relatively populated compared to the cities. As one example the Truro CA is a little over 45k now. Rural Kings County NS has a population density of just under 30 per square km while PEI is just a bit lower.

The population along the 1 hour route going from Halifax to Truro is likely 600,000 or so today. A majority of the population of NS, and the rest is dependent on that corridor in some way, connecting westward via Halifax or eastward via Truro.

Yep. Meanwhile, even if you add in Portage and Brandon, you only get another 68k between Winnipeg and Regina. There's just no sensible economic case at all for new corridors between provinces out west.

I could see an argument for some sort of regional ex-urban lines, built as single track with little grade separation. For example, Regina-Moose Jaw-Saskatoon, or Winnipeg-Portage-Brandon. Portions of these corridors would at least support some ex-urban commutes. But cross-Prairie service is practically useless to 99% of the population.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by someone123

In the Maritimes the small towns are also relatively populated compared to the cities. As one example the Truro CA is a little over 45k now. Rural Kings County NS has a population density of just under 30 per square km while PEI is just a bit lower.

The population along the 1 hour route going from Halifax to Truro is likely 600,000 or so today. A majority of the population of NS, and the rest is dependent on that corridor in some way, connecting westward via Halifax or eastward via Truro. Truro gets all of the traffic (including bus route) from New Glasgow-Sydney.

For that reason, HSR (which would likely bypass all of those intermediary communities) is likely less viable in NS/NB than HrSR, which will make more frequent stops while still remaining reasonably fast.

[VANRIDERFAN]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Yep. Meanwhile, even if you add in Portage and Brandon, you only get another 68k between Winnipeg and Regina. There's just no sensible economic case at all for new corridors between provinces out west.

I could see an argument for some sort of regional ex-urban lines, built as single track with little grade separation. For example, Regina-Moose Jaw-Saskatoon, or Winnipeg-Portage-Brandon. Portions of these corridors would at least support some ex-urban commutes. But cross-Prairie service is practically useless to 99% of the population.

Just for context:

There is no longer any bus service in Western Canada, zilch. There are a couple of charter companies, but it is very spotty. There used to be daily service from my hometown of Killarney to Brandon and twice weekly service to Winnipeg but that is all gone now.

There is one flight from Brandon to Calgary on West Jet.

Other than that ALL travel on the Prairies is by PMV. There is VIA's Canadian but it is so unreliable that it is useless.

There are a lot of abandoned Rail Road RoW criss-crossing the prairies that could be re-purposed as passenger rail and become the HFR or even just RR (reliable rail) which would be a nice change.

But right now all we get is buy an EV and maybe one day it'll actually drive on its own? Maybe?

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN

Just for context:

There is no longer any bus service in Western Canada, zilch. There are a couple of charter companies, but it is very spotty. There used to be daily service from my hometown of Killarney to Brandon and twice weekly service to Winnipeg but that is all gone now.

There is one flight from Brandon to Calgary on West Jet.

Other than that ALL travel on the Prairies is by PMV. There is VIA's Canadian but it is so unreliable that it is useless.

There are a lot of abandoned Rail Road RoW criss-crossing the prairies that could be re-purposed as passenger rail and become the HFR or even just RR (reliable rail) which would be a nice change.

But right now all we get is buy an EV and maybe one day it'll actually drive on its own? Maybe?

You get what you pay for. For example, Ontario has chosen to subsidize Ontario Northland's bus service, which provides busses across Northern Ontario, which is arguably more desolate than the prairies.

If the western provincial governments are unwilling to subsidize something as affordable as a bus network (which can use the existing highways), what makes you think they would pay for a much more expensive provincial train service?

[VANRIDERFAN]

Originally Posted by roger1818

You get what you pay for. For example, Ontario has chosen to subsidize Ontario Northland's bus service, which provides busses across Northern Ontario, which is arguably more desolate than the prairies.

If the western provincial governments are unwilling to subsidize something as affordable as a bus network (which can use the existing highways), what makes you think they would pay for a much more expensive provincial train service?

I doubt that any provincial gov will subsidize rail or bus service. Air Service is getting to be both laughably expensive and inconvenient so as we stand its all PMV all of the time.

If air service becomes a Climate Change casualty then Rail service is the only option for long distance travel across the country.

That will never happen.

[Truenorth00]

The problem with the Prairies is that not only do they not have real intercity transport (one train per day is useless for all intents and purposes), it's also that public transit usage is lower in many of these cities. So even if you do go to another city, you probably need your car. In the Quebec-Windsor corridor, there's many a place you can substantially get by without a car. That drives demand for intercity public transport, because there's enough people living a car free or car lite lifestyle (say one car families). If you are a prairie dweller who lives in a household where every adult has a car, how likely are you to use a bus or train between cities?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN

I doubt that any provincial gov will subsidize rail or bus service. Air Service is getting to be both laughably expensive and inconvenient so as we stand its all PMV all of the time.

If air service becomes a Climate Change casualty then Rail service is the only option for long distance travel across the country.

That will never happen.

Electric airplanes are coming along decently (AC even has some on order) that a lot of Prairie intercity routes will go that way.

They really should build a bus network like Ontario Northland. But there doesn't seem to be real public support in the Prairies for it. Very different from how Northern Ontarians look at Ontario Northland.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN

I doubt that any provincial gov will subsidize rail or bus service.

Reread my post. Ontario subsidizes bus service in Northern Ontario. They are also paying to bring back the Northlander train service.

Edit: Also, Nova Scotia subsidizes Maritime Bus (https://novascotia.ca/news/release/?id=20220412001)

[someone123]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Reread my post. Ontario subsidizes bus service in Northern Ontario. They are also paying to bring back the Northlander train service.

I believe Maritime Bus is also subsidized provincially. It is the main bus service around the Maritimes. There are lots of subsidized trains, buses, and ferries around Canada.

I think if there were no Acadian Lines or Maritime Bus type entity and there were just Greyhound or even a VIA-like crown corporation, the Maritimes would probably have a lot less bus service.

[ssiguy]

If private companies can't even make a go of it in Western Canada, how in God's name are they going to support rail service? They can't even support Regina to Saskatoon.

The ONLY place that rail could be financially viable is the Calgary/Edmonton corridor. Vancouver could maybe support HSR to Seattle/Portland but the section in Canada itself is very small so it is really an American decision.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Electric airplanes are coming along decently (AC even has some on order) that a lot of Prairie intercity routes will go that way.

They really should build a bus network like Ontario Northland. But there doesn't seem to be real public support in the Prairies for it. Very different from how Northern Ontarians look at Ontario Northland.

Air Canada's electric planes have a 200km range. The only existing Air Canada routes which qualify are London - Toronto, Ottawa-Montreal, Victoria-Vancouver, Nanaimo-Vancouver, and Comox-Vancouver. There aren't any prairie routes which are short enough for them.

Once the ranges approach 400km as they expect in 15 years or so they'll become more useful in the prairies.

[VANRIDERFAN]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Reread my post. Ontario subsidizes bus service in Northern Ontario. They are also paying to bring back the Northlander train service.

Edit: Also, Nova Scotia subsidizes Maritime Bus (https://novascotia.ca/news/release/?id=20220412001)

I should have added "on the Prairies". My mistake.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Air Canada's electric planes have a 200km range. The only existing Air Canada routes which qualify are London - Toronto, Ottawa-Montreal, Victoria-Vancouver, Nanaimo-Vancouver, and Comox-Vancouver. There aren't any prairie routes which are short enough for them.

Once the ranges approach 400km as they expect in 15 years or so they'll become more useful in the prairies.

The range of the ES-30 is 398 km using hybrid mode and 800 km with 25 passengers instead of 30. Some regional airline or charter operator could potentially create a configuration in between. Say 26-28 pax with 600 km range in hybrid mode and effectively deploy them as air shuttles to cities like Winnipeg or Saskatoon.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN

I should have added "on the Prairies". My mistake.

Fair enough. As I and others have said, if a province isn’t willing to pay for bus service, it almost certainly won’t be willing to pay for a more expensive train service. One can dream all one wants but it will just be that, a dream.

[casper]

Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN

Just for context:

There is no longer any bus service in Western Canada, zilch. There are a couple of charter companies, but it is very spotty. There used to be daily service from my hometown of Killarney to Brandon and twice weekly service to Winnipeg but that is all gone now.

There is one flight from Brandon to Calgary on West Jet.

Other than that ALL travel on the Prairies is by PMV. There is VIA's Canadian but it is so unreliable that it is useless.

There are a lot of abandoned Rail Road RoW criss-crossing the prairies that could be re-purposed as passenger rail and become the HFR or even just RR (reliable rail) which would be a nice change.

But right now all we get is buy an EV and maybe one day it'll actually drive on its own? Maybe?

BC is in a weird state.

A number of independents stepped in to replace Greyhound. Willsons on the island did their this. Then COVID hit, the government provided some subsidies but it was not quite a enough. They are back providing service during the summer but shutdown over the winter.

What the province has done is dramatically expanded city/town bus service into neighboring communities. We have a weird setup where outside of Vancouver, it is BC Transit branded buses provide municipal service. BC Transit (provincial government) owns the buses, but the local operation is handle by the municipality or regional district. The province has subsidised expansion of service. There are also a number of routes operated by BC Transit with the health regions to provide connections from smaller communities into regional hospitals.

Ideally bring back BC Rail would be idea, but I don't think that is in the cards.

In the case of Saskatchewan they use to have a provincial crown that operated bus service in the province. That was killed by the current government to save money.

[hipster duck]

When it comes to getting around a region by anything other than a car, there are three parts of Ontario:

1. There's the GO transit service area - which has about 10 million people (2/3 of Ontario's population) - and is fare integrated through a single fare media (Presto) with all of the local public transit agencies. Service is good by North American standards, which is to say it's mediocre to poor by international standards. With enough time on your hands you can get pretty much anywhere on some combination of GO and local transit, but it's slow, there could be a lot of transfers, and the frequency could be awful. It's improving, but let's be clear here: this is a region with the same population density as the Netherlands (10 million people/20,000 km2 = 500 people/km2), and it's not all just people traveling to downtown Toronto. The secondary centres would be big Canadian cities anywhere else: Hamilton, KW, St. Catharines, Barrie, Guelph, etc.

OC Transpo plays a similar role within the [large] city limits of Ottawa, except without commuter trains.

2. There's Northern Ontario, which is serviced by Ontario Northland. Again, you need a lot of time on your hands and the schedule isn't the best, but it does cover a lot of territory and it is one system, and this is, frankly, a remote part of the country where there will never be huge demand. Hourly service from Sault Ste. Marie to Thunder Bay (practically the same distance as Windsor - Ottawa, but with nothing in between) is a pipe dream.

3. The unfortunate rest of the province has practically nothing. There are a few private operators that receive subsidies but have low visibility, aren't integrated with neighbouring systems, and you never know if they're going to be cut in a future budget. Some pairs of cities that are not that small and not very far from each other have practically no service between them, like London-St. Thomas or Brantford-Cambridge (you can do this in the most indirect way possible), or Lindsay-Peterborough (ditto).

This guy exhaustively documents the availability of regional bus and transit services across the province.