DENVER | Main Development Thread #6

[mhays]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Enter mhays to tell us that "spending 50% of your income on rent is completely normal."

What mhays said was that's affordable to most people without cars, kids, high debt, etc., which is much of the market for greater-downtown buildings in big cities.

[Denver]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Speaking of Metro Denver EDC, they used to track new companies and business development but they've changed. Similar but they now list positive business news in general HERE. ZenPayroll is the only company I noticed moving into Denver this year.

To qualify for OEDIT incentives, a company has to have the average wage of new employees be a certain percentage higher than the area average. I think (although I could be wrong) that the 3-4% comment was in reference to the companies that OEDIT can, by law, offer incentives to. In other words, the area incomes where these companies want to locate are high enough such that only the top 3-4% of companies would qualify. Again, I could be wrong but that is my take on the quote.

In addition to Zenpayroll, Denver also got Transamerica and Liberty Global to move downtown which IMO is just as big a deal as Zenpayroll. Further, FiveStar loyalty (a San Fan based company) opened at 100+ person office in Denver and construction on the 1500 person Google campus just started in Boulder. Granted that is not Denver but that is still a major accomplishment for the state and will have a huge effect on the Metro Denver economy.

Yes, Denver has not had many sexy announcement. That does not IMO correlate to the ability of city to attract companies. If Texas is willing to offer $15 million to a company and Colorado is only willing to offer $5 million it is a pretty easy decision to decide where to locate. The lack of big name announcement is more a political thing than an inherent issue with the city not being attractive.

Lastly, and as you pointed out Takefive, Denver's Organic growth has been great. Beyond large companies that continue to grow, Denver's incubator and Co-working landscape is one of the best in the country. Between Galvanize, Industry, WeWork, Shift, Thrive, and any others I may have missed, Denver is laying the seeds of some great tech companies in the not so distant future. I personally would rather see policy (and money) focus on organic growth and having companies founded here rather than us having to fight with ten other states on San Francisco scraps.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by mhays

What mhays said was that's affordable to most people without cars, kids, high debt, etc., which is much of the market for greater-downtown buildings in big cities.

No kids (young).
No debt (uneducated or independently wealthy).
And making $70,000 per year.

Sounds like a pretty rare combination to me... trust-funders, basically.

OH WAIT, you live in Seattle, the land of the $70,000 minimum wage. It's all coming together now.

[TakeFive]

Denver... Ah hah. Actually I wasn't knocking Denver, either the metro area or the city center about its awesomeness. I'd venture that most of my comments reflect that. This was only one topic or point. I did miss FiveStars Loyalty Inc. though so thank you for that reminder.

Originally Posted by bunt_q

It seems to me that something has clearly changed since 2000, and I think a lot of it has to do with our approach to development.

I think wong pretty much nailed it. Allow me to amplify.

Point 1) - During the last decade is when the impact from globalization, most notably manufacturing from China really disrupted our domestic labor markets. Thousands upon thousands of jobs were outsourced and many states lost big chunks of their economic production as factory after factory closed.

Point 2) - The previous Administration moved on their wet dream of "free markets" creating a wonderful pile of poo that I fondly refer to as "Cowboy Capitalism." The minority party barely made a whimper and even worse often joined hands in a circle 'round the campfire to sing Kumbaya. The resulting bubble economy merely created the biggest financial threat and disaster since the Great Depression.

Point 3) Stupid politics aside fully half the working stiffs in America have had declining real wages. More than a couple of Tylenol are need to solve this hangover.

Lastly, there's the whole Millennial thingy that has caught us all by surprise and dramatically changed the development landscape. Clearly though the lack of any real wage growth among the masses is a killer for housing.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Point 2) - The previous Administration moved on their wet dream of "free markets" creating a wonderful pile of poo that I fondly refer to as "Cowboy Capitalism." The minority party barely made a whimper and even worse often joined hands in a circle 'round the campfire to sing Kumbaya. The resulting bubble economy merely created the biggest financial threat and disaster since the Great Depression.

Eloquently put, ha. But you oughta be careful. Talk like that down in Arizona might get you hung. Or deported. No red blooded 'Murican talks like that.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by bcp

^ that's a pretty scary fundamental....high-end sales cannot fuel a recovery and long-term growth...

Pretty much true...
but there's so much going on with the domestic economy that's it hard to wrap my brain around it but a lot of it is positive.

based on above, anybody else see a correction coming?

Not particularly but certainly "adjustments."

Partly we're catching up to a "New Normal," I suspect. We need to see some of those "Massive multi thousand unit development projects are now on the drawing boards for the suburbs" that CheryCreek mentioned to get going.

Denver has its vulnerabilities but nothing that looks to be meaningful until maybe a year from now.


How Nice: it's now 116 degrees outside in Phoenix (new record) although 113 in Scottsdale. Two more days of this and then back to normal, hopefully.

[bcp]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Denver... Ah hah. Actually I wasn't knocking Denver, either the metro area or the city center about its awesomeness. I'd venture that most of my comments reflect that. This was only one topic or point. I did miss FiveStars Loyalty Inc. though so thank you for that reminder.



I think wong pretty much nailed it. Allow me to amplify.

Point 1) - During the last decade is when the impact from globalization, most notably manufacturing from China really disrupted our domestic labor markets. Thousands upon thousands of jobs were outsourced and many states lost big chunks of their economic production as factory after factory closed.

Point 2) - The previous Administration moved on their wet dream of "free markets" creating a wonderful pile of poo that I fondly refer to as "Cowboy Capitalism." The minority party barely made a whimper and even worse often joined hands in a circle 'round the campfire to sing Kumbaya. The resulting bubble economy merely created the biggest financial threat and disaster since the Great Depression.

Point 3) Stupid politics aside fully half the working stiffs in America have had declining real wages. More than a couple of Tylenol are need to solve this hangover.

Lastly, there's the whole Millennial thingy that has caught us all by surprise and dramatically changed the development landscape. Clearly though the lack of any real wage growth among the masses is a killer for housing.

You may want to read up on where the lending and housing madness started...in the early 90s...it's been exasperated by every admin since.

But it started w the notion that it's fair that everybody should own - pleasant idea, but when the Feds meddle....requirements change, risk goes up, rates stay artificially low, banks follow the new rules that include near limitless guarantees...and before long, shady brokers and appraisers make it a real mess - combined with people deciding to walk away (which I believe is shady too in most cases).

To blame the previous admin is beyond inaccurate. It's all our fault for putting up with a system so flawed - risk must be priced in and people must live within their means.

And that's more free market...which is not to blame here, despite its inherent cruelties - but what's more cruel is a false system that encourages govt dependence (and that includes interest rates).

[mhays]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

No kids (young).
No debt (uneducated or independently wealthy).
And making $70,000 per year.

Sounds like a pretty rare combination to me... trust-funders, basically.

OH WAIT, you live in Seattle, the land of the $70,000 minimum wage. It's all coming together now.

Pre-kid, post-kid, and no-kid can be a ton of people!

$70,000 is a common income even for young adults. (I said common, not average.)

No debt...you're exaggerating for effect obviously. Even with the college debt problem, median debt isn't that huge, and a lot of people are done with it in a few years.

I don't know your financial situation and won't guess. But the internets seem to be full of people who'd be shocked at what average or median people actually make. $70,000 isn't that much.

[mishko27]

Originally Posted by mhays

Pre-kid, post-kid, and no-kid can be a ton of people!

$70,000 is a common income even for young adults. (I said common, not average.)

No debt...you're exaggerating for effect obviously. Even with the college debt problem, median debt isn't that huge, and a lot of people are done with it in a few years.

I don't know your financial situation and won't guess. But the internets seem to be full of people who'd be shocked at what average or median people actually make. $70,000 isn't that much.

My boyfriend, Computer Science from one of the universities in the city, graduated this year, interned all through college and now earns $73,000 at the ripe age of 22. I mean, I am 24, in grad school and intern part time, so... But yeah, in some industries, these young grads get loads of money.

[TakeFive]

Recently (August 5th) Justin/Denver Urban Review did a nice construction update and photo tour that reminded me of the projects in Capital Hill area. It's hard to keep up with all that going on.

At Speer and Grant there's the Speer Boulevard Apartments by Gables Res. which will be 211 units. At 7th Avenue and Sherman Street is a project by RedPeak that will have 115 units. Then there's the MOTO apartments with 64 units at 8th Avenue and Sherman Street. Lastly there's the apartment project at 8th Avenue and Broadway with 200 units called Via Denver. Adding it all up there's a total of 590 units in these four buildings. Not to go unmentioned is the Country Club Towers which will have over 550 units and is just getting started.

[rds70]

Tower crane going up at the 1144 site.

[DUPio]

For the life of me I couldn't get the flickr photos to come through but the two buildings at DU are coming along nicely with some crane action. About 3rd floor for both and dome installation likely in the next couple months for the engineering school. Word is another building of this caliber to break ground in the next year.

[RyanD]

Originally Posted by rds70

Tower crane going up at the 1144 site.

It got windy! I'm sure it'll be complete tomorrow!

Central Downtown: 1144 Fifteenth Update #5



Also...

[BG918]

Originally Posted by DUPio

For the life of me I couldn't get the flickr photos to come through but the two buildings at DU are coming along nicely with some crane action. About 3rd floor for both and dome installation likely in the next couple months for the engineering school. Word is another building of this caliber to break ground in the next year.

Very interesting to watch these go up with what looks like load-bearing masonry walls. If you want an anecdote to the stick built apartments going up everywhere go check out these DU projects.

Any idea where the new building will be located? I have heard they want to build a new hotel/conference center by the Ritchie Center and more student housing near the LRT station. I'm in the process of moving from downtown to the DU area and learning more about this end of town.

[DUPio]

There have been talks of an integrated hotel/conference center/hospitality classrooms on the east side of Magness. A possibility along with this is that they would totally redevelop the entire east side of the building up to Univ Blvd, which is currently some older apartments and single family homes. Also near term they will be expanding the Ritchie Center north toward Buchtel, adding a north end to the lacrosse stadium and building a tennis complex. From what I've heard the funding is there for the most part, however the recent flooding may have delayed things.

I passed the Arby's on Broadway and 11th today... Under demo. Do we know what may be going in here?

[rds70]

Today:

[Brainpathology]

Just got back from consecutive trips to Denver and Chicago. Giant reality check for me in terms of dulling the polish on Denver for the moment. It's still better than nothing that lots are being filled with buildings. I'll not ever change my mind on that.

But... in the loop in Chicago, literally next door to Columbia College where my partner will be going next year for ASL interp. 259k for a 1/1 750 sq/ft condo. 220 for a 1/1 no footage listed. They go up from there.. and of course if I had 20 million I could find a way to spend it there easily.

Up a few blocks to boystown.. 195-220-300k easily gets 2bds. One roomate and your HOA's and 1/3 of your mortgage is gone. One week of renting during Market Days and several months of mortgage gone.

A few red line stops up to Edgewater. Knock about 20-30k off of the above.

Denver downtown the least expensive home is 223k at Brooks.. for 1/1.. without parking..so add 50k if you want that. (and in Denver you still need that). Next least is 259k.

I'm definitely a homer, cheerleading, infuriating Denver booster. But even I'm not so stupid to see the absolute unadulterated ridiculousness of these prices. There are places relatively affordable (and studios were even less) next to GREAT colleges and universities or along real live transit which runs frequently and everywhere you'd ever want to be. Museums, and cultural attractions, music/food scenes etc that Denver won't aspire to for another century at least (which would be fine if they weren't priced as it is).

On the other hand..the least expensive home in Denver is next to 3 schools that can aspire to mediocrity if they work exceptionally hard at it. Transit which is in its infancy (and going sort of in the right direction in fits and starts) from an agency which still has trouble taking money from its customers, and can't be bothered to protect riders from things like rain/hail that fall from the sky at their main jewel of a transit center. Culture and museums which are at times exemplary (at times). Plenty of great reasons to live in Denver actually IF it cost around 66-75% of the homes I was looking at in Chicago.

It's probably time for all of you there to admit that Denver is probably done in terms of normal people living there. You've turned it into MechaBoulder and it's now a museum city like San Francisco. There will be stragglers there who got in when they could. But for everyone else it will be a great place to visit and then leave to whatever city is more affordable and sane (Aurora?? blech).

My fellow liberals there have more or less destroyed any dreams real people have of permanently living in a vibrant, living, organic downtown. I doubt they should ever be forgiven for that, and it will go down in my mind in the same file as the wholesale bulldozing of the city in the 70's. We like to complain that conservatives don't learn from their mistakes (or facts) but in less than a single generation we've managed to destroy downtown AGAIN with not even the faintest signs of a willingness to fix it this time.

If you love Denver and want to own a piece of it you might as well buy a snowglobe of it on 16th.. that's the only view of it that a normal person can ever afford now.

[awholeparade]

Originally Posted by DUPio

I passed the Arby's on Broadway and 11th today... Under demo. Do we know what may be going in here?

Torchy's Tacos is going in there. While their tacos are tasty, it's a shame that this corner is basically getting another fast food place.

[DUPio]

Originally Posted by awholeparade

Torchy's Tacos is going in there. While their tacos are tasty, it's a shame that this corner is basically getting another fast food place.

What a $@!?ing waste. Build a condo and put the Torchys at street level if you have to. Christ.

Totally agree on the rent situation. I fit the "$70k" out of university bill. While Denver is awesome, there is no way will I buy in the current market and certainly will be moving once I get the chance so I can be a little smarter with money. Plenty of great cities out there

[Cirrus]

Originally Posted by Brainpathology

Denver is probably done in terms of normal people living there. You've turned it into MechaBoulder and it's now a museum city like San Francisco.

I don't disagree. But the solution we haven't really seen yet is bona fide urbanization outside of downtown. This weird notion that downtown is the only place allowed to be high-density urban is a relic of 20th Century thinking, and it doesn't have to be true. We're seeing urbanization in Cherry Creek North, but what Denver needs now is 10 more Cherry Creek Norths, all over the region, preferably at FasTracks stops.

Unfortunately, I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that anyone in Colorado is willing to allow that kind of density outside of downtown or Cherry Creek North. Except maybe Glendale, but there's only one Glendale.