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  #501  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2017, 6:08 PM
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rgolch rgolch is offline
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I wouldn't make too much of that article. It may be true, it may be fluff.

It's entirely possible there's someone at Amazon (or CNBC) with a Boston connection, and they're trying to stack the deck in Boston's favor by getting that article out ahead of the real search. Albeit, articles like that turned out to be true with ADM and Chicago. But some execs isn't "all" execs. Who knows. I wouldn't say it's a done deal by any measure.
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  #502  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2017, 7:00 PM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rgolch View Post
I wouldn't make too much of that article. It may be true, it may be fluff.

It's entirely possible there's someone at Amazon (or CNBC) with a Boston connection, and they're trying to stack the deck in Boston's favor by getting that article out ahead of the real search. Albeit, articles like that turned out to be true with ADM and Chicago. But some execs isn't "all" execs. Who knows. I wouldn't say it's a done deal by any measure.
The ADM office is also a c suite hq of 100 or so people so their opinions actually kind of mattered more. The Amazon hq2 is entirely different. There are different factors here entirely than where executives can do and want to do their work from because kid personal preferences. Hiring up to 50k workers is way different than where 25 vps for ADM want to live.
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  #503  
Old Posted Sep 15, 2017, 3:27 PM
LouisVanDerWright LouisVanDerWright is offline
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Interesting and topical cross post from Marothisu on reddit r/Chicago:

Quote:
The US Census's 2016 American Community Survey was unleashed today to the public. One interesting thing? Chicago is now statistically the most educated, by percentage, of the top 5 most populous US cities. This is measured by percentage of population, aged 25+, with a Bachelor's degree or higher.
Chicago: 38.5%
NYC: 37.02%
Los Angeles: 32.81%
Houston: 32.47%
Phoenix: 27.91%
If you expand it out to the top 10 most populous cities then Chicago is 3rd - with only San Jose and San Diego higher, respectively.
Interestingly in 2015, NYC was just barely ahead of Chicago but between 2015 and 2016, Chicago increased the amount of people in this category by over double than NYC did - even though NYC is over 3X the overall population of Chicago.
Source: https://factfinder.census.gov
https://www.reddit.com/r/chicago/com..._most_college/

Hope you don't mind me reposting your stuff!
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  #504  
Old Posted Sep 15, 2017, 6:24 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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^ If that were posted here in City Discussions it would be ripped apart by several forumers as "Chicago boosterism". Nevermind Pedestrian posting his umpteenth thread gloating about another statistic that makes him feel warm and fuzzy about San Francisco (and of course the usual cadre of coastal elitist forumers don't say a word...)
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  #505  
Old Posted Sep 15, 2017, 11:14 PM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
^ If that were posted here in City Discussions it would be ripped apart by several forumers as "Chicago boosterism". Nevermind Pedestrian posting his umpteenth thread gloating about another statistic that makes him feel warm and fuzzy about San Francisco (and of course the usual cadre of coastal elitist forumers don't say a word...)
I think it's actually fairly important considering Chicago was maybe 3rd or 4th on this list in the early 90s. It has come a long way in this regard and isn't really boosterism, though its great for Chicago. The city, in my opinion, should have data out there like this as many peoples ideas about the city is not what this data shows. It's literally a fact via the US Census department. Do we thin now that stating facts is boosterism?

But you know, being positive about an actual fact cant be celebrated ever according to some.

It's rare for me to post on reddit and this is still a fact no matter what you think. Also though, there's a reason why I posted that it's not #1 when expanded to top 10. If you expanded more, it would definitely drop places.
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  #506  
Old Posted Sep 16, 2017, 1:28 AM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by marothisu View Post
I think it's actually fairly important considering Chicago was maybe 3rd or 4th on this list in the early 90s. It has come a long way in this regard and isn't really boosterism, though its great for Chicago. The city, in my opinion, should have data out there like this as many peoples ideas about the city is not what this data shows. It's literally a fact via the US Census department. Do we thin now that stating facts is boosterism?

But you know, being positive about an actual fact cant be celebrated ever according to some.

It's rare for me to post on reddit and this is still a fact no matter what you think. Also though, there's a reason why I posted that it's not #1 when expanded to top 10. If you expanded more, it would definitely drop places.
Right, but there is a catch 22 according to the coastal elitist forumers (we know who they are). It's all Chicago boosterism, and if it's a fact that sheds good light on Chicago it's "obviously flawed", but if it sheds Chicago in a bad light we hear crickets. That same standard is NOT applied to other cities.

Wanna test this theory? Post that same article in City Discussions and just watch the posts trickle in. Let me know if my prediction is correct.
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  #507  
Old Posted Sep 16, 2017, 2:47 AM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
Right, but there is a catch 22 according to the coastal elitist forumers (we know who they are). It's all Chicago boosterism, and if it's a fact that sheds good light on Chicago it's "obviously flawed", but if it sheds Chicago in a bad light we hear crickets. That same standard is NOT applied to other cities.

Wanna test this theory? Post that same article in City Discussions and just watch the posts trickle in. Let me know if my prediction is correct.
Yeah, I'm not surprised but I think those are just the hardcore people probably. I actually said this fact to a few of my coworkers today like "wow..interesting" and even the born and raised New Yorkers were just like "actually yeah that probably makes sense. Every loser is now moving to NYC trying to make it big." It's funny because you see these things online but my born and raised NY friends are much more realistic about their own city and others in the country too.
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  #508  
Old Posted Sep 16, 2017, 2:10 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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What Rahm should do

Rahm should call Bezos and say:

"Chicago's got problems. Political gridlock and the worst pension crisis in history. The unions screwed us big time. Sorry Jeff, I can give you the world's greatest city but I can't give you any handouts. If that doesn't cut it, my vote goes to Detroit. Help a brotha out over there."

I would LOVE it if he did that. I think Chicago should shake up its identity a bit.
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  #509  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2017, 4:27 AM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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^ Not going to happen. Even Rauner is in on this thing trying to put together packages so they can come to Chicago. Anybody who has the most basic level of investment/financial knowledge can see how worth it it would be for this. Even if you gave them a tax break worth $500M over time, if they really staffed up 50K workers at an average of say $110K per year, then that's nearly a quarter billion dollars per year for income tax alone for the state. Depending on how long that staff up takes, you'd definitely be out of the red within a few years and would be making tons more after that over time than if you didn't get the workers at all.
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  #510  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2017, 12:47 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by marothisu View Post
^ Not going to happen. Even Rauner is in on this thing trying to put together packages so they can come to Chicago. Anybody who has the most basic level of investment/financial knowledge can see how worth it it would be for this. Even if you gave them a tax break worth $500M over time, if they really staffed up 50K workers at an average of say $110K per year, then that's nearly a quarter billion dollars per year for income tax alone for the state. Depending on how long that staff up takes, you'd definitely be out of the red within a few years and would be making tons more after that over time than if you didn't get the workers at all.
Are you kidding me? Wisconsin is giving Foxconn $3 billion in tax breaks and that's for a much smaller project.

Whoever "wins" Amazon will be forking over WAY the hell more than $500 million in tax breaks
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  #511  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2017, 3:26 PM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
Are you kidding me? Wisconsin is giving Foxconn $3 billion in tax breaks and that's for a much smaller project.

Whoever "wins" Amazon will be forking over WAY the hell more than $500 million in tax breaks
You took my number too literally. My point is that it can work out for both parties in this scope of this - you could probably fork out in the billions and make this thing work depending on a lot of things. I was using $500M to show merely in income tax alone in like 2.5 years - there's tons of other stuff (like property taxes) to make it work.

But we'll see what they come up with as Rauner is even in on this. I have some very conservative friends who don't think the government should pay for almost anything and yet they think it would be dumb for Illinois to not put together a package.
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  #512  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2017, 5:54 PM
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
Are you kidding me? Wisconsin is giving Foxconn $3 billion in tax breaks and that's for a much smaller project.

Whoever "wins" Amazon will be forking over WAY the hell more than $500 million in tax breaks
Thanks for your vision Daniel Burnham.

Depends on what the $3 billion is. If its just reduction of future taxes, it doesn’t cost Wisconsin anything really. Would you rather us have nothing instead of Amazon.


If Amazon pays zero taxes for decades that would be even more 50,000 paid employees and eventually 50,000 families paying property taxes, income, sales, ect...

I don't think you understand what I'm suggesting or what is at stake.

Option 1) NO tax income, no jobs, no nothing. The business moves to Dallas and IL gets NADA.

Option 2) They (Amazon) pay no state income tax at the business level for 15-20 years BUT all their employees, contractors, contractors companies pay state and local income taxes. Those employees/companies also buy a ton of stuff from other local companies spurring local GDP. They hire thousands of people and create jobs for 10s of 1000s.



Your starting to beat down Chicago and Illinois better than Rauner now.
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  #513  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2017, 6:09 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Daniel Burnham?

Wooing a glorified online Walmart's back office to Chicago is NOT on par with "Make no small plans".
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  #514  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2017, 6:44 PM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
Daniel Burnham?

Wooing a glorified online Walmart's back office to Chicago is NOT on par with "Make no small plans".
Amazon's true business future is in things like AWS - everyone knows this. They posted $3.5B revenue last quarter which in 2014, just 3 years ago, was at $1B. It's increased $1B in profit per year since 2014. In fact, Q12017 revenue was almost equivalent to the entire 2014 revenue for AWS. They will increase a ton in the future - a lot of Fortune 50, 100, etc companies are going to them now (for some reason..that's another story).
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  #515  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2017, 7:24 PM
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Speaking of the Foxconn deal that most here love to bash, lets break it down a bit. And yes I am aware of Foxconn's history but at least Wisconsin did something instead of self flagellate themselves. Amazon would be Foxconn x 10 on steroid's and higher paying jobs at that.


https://siteselection.com/issues/201...ed-foxconn.cfm




From Site Selection magazine, September 2017

Bagging the Big One

How Wisconsin Landed Foxconn




Remember the big one that got away? Wisconsin doesn’t.



...

They will spend $10 billion to build this 20-million-square-foot complex. To build that requires 10,000 direct construction jobs, plus another 6,000 indirect jobs.”

..

In deconstructing the anatomy of this complex deal, several points stand out:

Wisconsin was neither the high bidder nor the low bidder.


The site search in the US began on April 28 and lasted only four months — remarkable for a project of this complexity.

Foxconn did not get everything it asked for in the negotiations.

Foxconn selected a region but not an exact site for the facilities.

The total jobs number increased as the project moved through the timeline.

A key White House official was pivotal in setting up the meetings between Foxconn and the leaders of Wisconsin.

The presence of the world’s largest supply of freshwater in the Great Lakes immediately elevated Upper Midwest locations to the top of the project short list.


...

The jobs, including engineering and other high-tech positions, will pay an average annual wage of at least $53,900 plus benefits, Gou noted. He cited other location factors as crucial:

The presence of numerous corporate partners and potential partners in the region: Rockwell Automation, GE Healthcare, Johnson Controls and others.

The Chicago-Milwaukee corridor is in the geographic center of the US.

Access to Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport, Milwaukee’s General Mitchell International Airport and multiple rail lines provides transportation and logistics.

“You have a good manufacturing foundation” in Wisconsin, Gou said.

Wisconsin’s strong university and technical college system will play a valuable role in training the workforce of Foxconn.

Vast energy resources — brought to the site by Wisconsin Energy Corp. — are critical.

...

UW-Madison economist Noah Williams, director of the Center for Research on the Wisconsin Economy, analyzed state and national studies and concluded that “Foxconn has the potential to generate broad gains that go far beyond the direct job estimates and tax revenue costs, which have dominated the recent discussion.”
Fiscal costs could be $2.84 billion in state subsidies for capital and payroll expenditures over 15 years if the Legislature approves the total incentives package. After analyzing the expected impacts of the Foxconn investment, Williams said the state could see:

Between 32,000 and 39,000 indirect jobs through Foxconn’s supply chain and other induced activity.

An additional $39 billion in gross domestic product, in addition to $11 billion in labor income, over 15 years.

Fewer Wisconsin workers in Kenosha and Racine commuting across the border into Illinois each day to work.

An increase in foreign direct investment in Wisconsin as Foxconn pulls in suppliers and related firms it deals with from around the world.


Population was critical, he notes. “Chicago has 9.5 million people. Milwaukee has 1.6 million. Being in a corridor with access to both markets within 90 miles is a real asset,” Paetsch says. “And the two regions are starting to meld together as one. There aren’t many places in the country where you could find a 1,000-acre site within a labor shed of 11 million people.”
On August 21, Foxconn said it would begin by building three ancillary facilities as part of its new Wisconsin LCD campus. These three new plants alone would total $1 billion in investment, said Louis Woo, special assistant to Chairman Gou.

Paetsch summed up the significance of the project win by saying, “This plants Wisconsin’s flag in the digital economy of the 21st century. This is transformational for our state.”

Last edited by bnk; Sep 17, 2017 at 7:41 PM.
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  #516  
Old Posted Sep 18, 2017, 2:23 AM
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HQ2 is Philly's...

I spent a while reading all of the intelligent articles (i.e. skipping the articles why Indianapolis and Columbus are good) that I could find on Amazon HQ2 and looking at some of the city proposals. As much as I'd like to say this is Chicago's to lose, I'd say it's Philadelphia's. Take a look at their options if you can - I think they've got Chicago beat at face value.

The 30th street station is truly a marvel - it's basically union station but the tracks are directly underneath the great hall. Amtrak's east coast trains are pretty much every 45 minutes to New York/Boston and Washington (and they are pass-through, stopping only for 10 minutes). Acela gets to Boston in 5 hours and New York in 1 hour 15 min. To D.C. it is 1 hour 40 minutes. This beats flying (door to door) any day. This is everything the RFP wanted - flights to Seattle and the Bay Area are plentiful at Philly's American Airlines (formerly U.S. Air) hub. The 30th street station plan destroys the Old Post office location by a mile. In addition, Philly has two other prime city locations, but those are more similar to our Finkle Steel site and that huge parcel along the south loop.

But taking the two top contenders from each city, old post office does not have what it takes (unless union station redevelopment is incorporated within it) to contend with Philly's 30th street plans as they currently stand:
1) redevelopment of the rail yards and open lots for a total of 8 million sq. feet of office space;
2) directly west of downtown Philly; directly east of ivy league U-Penn;
3) amtrak direct to Manhattan and D.C. and other ivy schools;
4) city express train to the airport in 20 minutes (currently existing);
5) direct subway line (market street)
6) direct highway access
7) diverse tolerant city with a unique, eclectic culture;
8) much lower cost of living than east coast counterparts;
9) and a potential for Amazon to truly re-make the city like Seattle.

I don't know how the New York Times got to Denver, and I have no idea where someone would get D.C. or New York as a contender. Elite media has been pretty obnoxious and less informed than most of us here on this forum I'd say (on this topic). I would be shocked if Amazon went to some sprawler south of the Mason Dixon line, and the west coast is likely out.

Thus, I believe the top three contenders, in this specific order, are: 1) Philadelphia, 2) Chicago, 3) Boston.

That said, if Chicago wants this, the proposal needs to distinguish Chicago from Philly and Boston. To be safe, the proposal should distinguish from Dallas and Atlanta as well, but Philly and Boston should be considered primary rivals in this race.
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  #517  
Old Posted Sep 18, 2017, 3:27 AM
cyked3 cyked3 is offline
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I think you make good points chiphile. But Downtown Chicago blows Central City Philly out of the water in terms of labor market strength - based on scale and the strength of existing business and tech talent.

https://www.centercityphila.org/uplo...-socc-full.pdf
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  #518  
Old Posted Sep 18, 2017, 2:02 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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^ Gotta agree, the fundamental flaw here is Chiphile's putting importance on access via Acela to New York and DC.

In day to day commuting matters, they are going to look more at a region's mass transit service, not so much regional rail. And Chicago has a huge system. Once again, TALENT is one of Chicago's greatest strengths, not its shortcomings. The assumption that "we need to be close to Harvard and MIT" is completely flawed for reasons we've discussed above.
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  #519  
Old Posted Sep 18, 2017, 2:37 PM
LouisVanDerWright LouisVanDerWright is offline
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The other problem is timeline. You are talking about creating an entire city basically on top of an active railyard. None of those buildings in Philly are under construction and I'm not even sure if they've finished all planning and approvals. Meanwhile the Post Office is chugging along with their renovation and will probably have half a million square feet ready sometime next year, well before Amazons 2019 requirement. Sure they could try to find 500k SF somewhere else in central Philly in the meantime, but doesn't that kinda defeat the point?

Also where are we getting the idea that the Post Office can't accommodate the entire Amazon HQ2 without help from Union Station plans? The existing building alone has 2.5 million square feet, but Davies craziest plans provided well in excess of the 8 million SF Amazon wanted. I'm having trouble finding the direct source on the PD, but Wikipedia says it was 16 million SF total including the 2,000 SF tower. That sounds super high, but when you take into account the fact that Sears is 4.5 million SF, then you realize just the post office and an adjacent Sears sized building would make 7 million SF for Amazon no problem not including the other towers at Holiday Inn or the other on the River.

The Post Office is the best site in the country for this, the question is whether our fucked up government precludes Amazon from choosing Chicago. That said, if it doesn't go to Chicago, I think and hope Philly will land it.
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  #520  
Old Posted Sep 18, 2017, 2:41 PM
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I'll leave this as my last post regarding Philly so as not to veer off-topic.

Philly is often overlooked because it's between NY and DC (I think we Chicagoans can appreciate that predicament).

Philly has the same transit ridership per capita as Chicago. While it has only 2 subway lines, it has an extensive bus and trolley network. Moreover, its regional rail is comparable to if not better than metra (check out a map of SEPTA). The express train to the airport is the best in the nation, every 20 minutes, 20 minute trips, straight to the terminals. Its density is also very similar to Chicago's.

Those are facts and figures of course. I've visited many times and it's a fantastic and underappreciated city. Of course, I hope we win and as stated before Chicago's proposal needs to zero in on Philly and Boston in my opinion.
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