Quebec, the French Language, and Quebecois Identity

[New Brisavoine]

What's called 'mettre les pieds dans le plat' in French...

Le Québec gagnerait à avoir sa propre monnaie, selon Paul St-Pierre Plamondon

Radio Canada
18 octobre 2023

À moins d’une semaine du dévoilement de ce qu'il est convenu d'appeler le « budget de l’an 1 » d'un Québec souverain, le chef du Parti québécois (PQ), Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, s’est dit mercredi en faveur de la création d’une nouvelle devise advenant l’indépendance du Québec.

Ce genre de question, hypothétique, revient périodiquement dans l’actualité : en d’autres temps, Jacques Parizeau plaidait quant à lui pour qu’un Québec souverain conserve le dollar canadien.

Mais les temps ont changé, a expliqué M. St-Pierre Plamondon, mercredi matin, à l’Assemblée nationale. "À l'époque de Lévesque, on était très inquiets de la capacité du Québec de demeurer en contact commercial avec les nations voisines, parce que la mondialisation n'avait pas eu lieu", a-t-il souligné.

[...]

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle...ie-association

I think it's the first time a sovereignist leader dares to say that, isn't it? The ultimate taboo.

[harls]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

What's called 'mettre les pieds dans le plat' in French...



I think it's the first time a sovereignist leader dares to say that, isn't it? The ultimate taboo.

"Budget de l'an 1"..

Jesus Christ.

[1overcosc]

Honestly, that's refreshing. I support Quebec's right to self determination - actually I believe any province in this country should have the right to freely withdraw from the country as long its population supports such, the federation should not be a prison - but I have no patience for that old Quebec nationalist idea that Quebec should "secede" but continue to leech off the country's army, currency, etc. You're either in, or you're out.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

You're either in, or you're out.

That's basically what he's saying. An independent Québec should have its own currency (because the Canadian dollar is inflated by Albertan oil and is a drag on Québec exports he says) and its own army (which would join Nato). Apparently Québec Solidaire is in agreement, but the other parties think it's crazy. I found the reaction of Québec's minister of economy particularly bizarre: he mocked the fact Québec should have its own currency and said they'd be better with the... US dollar. Is that seriously the reaction of a governing minister??

[Acajack]

The use of the Canadian dollar has been part of the platform of the PQ for decades.

Some of the Oui signs in the 1995 referendum even had the Canadian loonie on them:

https://www.google.ca/search?q=oui+e...biw=1536&hl=fr

Now, I've always been 50-50 on this idea.

On the one hand, in spite of what a lot of people say, it's actually totally false that a sovereign country can't use another country's currency. (And it doesn't need permission from the latter country.)

There are quite a few countries for example that use the US dollar as their national currency. It would be even easier for Quebec to do this with the Canadian dollar than it is for some of them because there are already billions of Canadian dollars in circulation in Quebec. And everything in Quebec already uses the Canadian dollar as the base value for everything.

That said, where PSPP is not completely wrong is when he talks about monetary policy and national interest. If Quebec (or some in Quebec) already feel that Canadian monetary policy does not serve Quebec's interests at the moment, it won't serve our interests more if we are a different country. I doubt we will have a say in how the Bank of Canada manages the Canadian dollar, which in that case will be all about the interests of Canada-sans-Québec.

So in that sense, the current minister who is a member of the CAQ might be right that the US dollar could be a better option given the relative stability that comes from the fact that its management and value is driven by more purely mercantile and economic considerations (since we're talking about the US) and probably and incredibly, not quite as political as decisions affecting the Canadian dollar are.

[MonctonRad]

McGill shelves $50M French program after Quebec out-of-province tuition hike
The Montreal English-language university was creating a program to teach students, faculty and staff French
Verity Stevenson, Matthew Lapierre · CBC News · Posted: Oct 18, 2023 4:40 PM ADT | Last Updated: October 18
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montr...ench-1.7000385

Discuss......

If Quebec doesn't want McGill, I wonder if McGill would consider moving to Moncton. We need an anglophone university in this city.

Heck, I'd even take Bishop's.................

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

McGill shelves $50M French program after Quebec out-of-province tuition hike
The Montreal English-language university was creating a program to teach students, faculty and staff French
Verity Stevenson, Matthew Lapierre · CBC News · Posted: Oct 18, 2023 4:40 PM ADT | Last Updated: October 18
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montr...ench-1.7000385

Discuss......

If Quebec doesn't want McGill, I wonder if McGill would consider moving to Moncton. We need an anglophone university in this city.

Heck, I'd even take Bishop's.................

It's a helluva coincidence that they should talk about this... now.

I read a comment saying that this must be the most incredibly awesome plan to teach McGill faculty, staff and students French, since they've been working on it and waiting to roll it out since 1821!

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Acajack

So in that sense, the current minister who is a member of the CAQ might be right that the US dollar could be a better option given the relative stability that comes from the fact that its management and value is driven by more purely mercantile and economic considerations (since we're talking about the US) and probably and incredibly, not quite as political as decisions affecting the Canadian dollar are.

It's interesting that you mention that.

If there's a currency that more subject to political climate, the USD would be it. The 1980s vis-a-vis the Japanese yen is an example of such a situation - the Plaza Accords were a political action.

The Canadian dollar has rarely been brought up as a political football by leaders in the floating exchange era.

Now, the bigger risk to Quebec might be the same risk most countries face when switching currencies: the legacy debts of one's society are denominated in another currency. This makes currency fluctuations a factor in the servicing of that debt. It can be a risky maneuver. Debt denominated in local currency doesn't have that risk.

Those changes may move faster than expected and have led to fiscal crises.

[Ozabald]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

McGill shelves $50M French program after Quebec out-of-province tuition hike
The Montreal English-language university was creating a program to teach students, faculty and staff French
Verity Stevenson, Matthew Lapierre · CBC News · Posted: Oct 18, 2023 4:40 PM ADT | Last Updated: October 18
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montr...ench-1.7000385

Discuss......

If Quebec doesn't want McGill, I wonder if McGill would consider moving to Moncton. We need an anglophone university in this city.

Heck, I'd even take Bishop's.................

Nah…move it to Edmundston or Caraquet to drive the SANB folks batty! 😉

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by thewave46

It's interesting that you mention that.

If there's a currency that more subject to political climate, the USD would be it. The 1980s vis-a-vis the Japanese yen is an example of such a situation - the Plaza Accords were a political action.

The Canadian dollar has rarely been brought up as a political football by leaders in the floating exchange era.

Now, the bigger risk to Quebec might be the same risk most countries face when switching currencies: the legacy debts of one's society are denominated in another currency. This makes currency fluctuations a factor in the servicing of that debt. It can be a risky maneuver. Debt denominated in local currency doesn't have that risk.

Those changes may move faster than expected and have led to fiscal crises.

You don't agree that for all sorts of reasons if you're a capitalist economy the USD is a more stable and predictable currency (assuming you'd have no control over either) to peg your national monetary policy on that the CAD?

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Ozabald

Nah…move it to Edmundston or Caraquet to drive the SANB folks batty! 😉

That would be purely political (but delicious).

The anglophone community in greater Moncton is over 120,000 (not including the sizeable French community 0f 50,000 or so. They have a fully comprehensive provincial university complete with law and medical schools. All we have is a small private religious Baptist university with a few hundred students. The discrepancy is mind boggling.

I dare you to find an anglophone population centre anywhere else in the country of over 120,000 without a public university. I know Barrie has been brought up, but aren't they getting a university?

Moving Bishops or McGill to Moncton sounds perfect to me.......

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

That would be purely political (but delicious).

The anglophone community in greater Moncton is over 120,000 (not including the sizeable French community 0f 50,000 or so. They have a fully comprehensive provincial university complete with law and medical schools. All we have is a small private religious Baptist university with a few hundred students. The discrepancy is mind boggling.

I dare you to find an anglophone population centre anywhere else in the country of over 120,000 without a public university. I know Barrie has been brought up, but aren't they getting a university?

Moving Bishops or McGill to Moncton sounds perfect to me.......

Mount Allison is Moncton's anglophone university.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Acajack

You don't agree that if you're a capitalist economy the USD is a more stable and predictable currency (over which you'd have no control) to peg your national monetary policy on that the CAD?

It's just the largest in terms of trade volume as a reserve currency. It is not the most predictable, nor the most apolitical. The USD just looks stable because everything is compared to it, so people assume the variation is the comparative currency. (e.g. if the CAD is low, people assume the problem lies with Canada, not the fact that the USD might be riding high)

The CAD is relatively apolitical comparatively speaking as an instrument of policy of government.

This is fine, but it sometimes makes choices for you. Especially depending on your trade partners.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Mount Allison is Moncton's anglophone university.

It's Moncton-adjacent. Sackville is not part of the CMA. It is a 30 minute drive and the roads can be pretty snowy and icy for a good part of the academic year. There is no public transit.

One of my sons went to MTA. We had him live in Sackville because of concerns over trying to commute in the wintertime. With our lousy winter weather around here, we thought the risk unacceptable.

Are you saying English lives are worth less than French lives???

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

It's Moncton-adjacent. Sackville is not part of the CMA. It is a 30 minute drive and the roads can be pretty snowy and icy for a good part of the academic career. There is no public transit.

One of my sons went to MTA. We had him live in Sackville because of concerns over trying to commute in the wintertime. With our lousy winter weather around here, we thought the risk unacceptable.

Are you saying English lives are worth less than French lives???

Unmasked yet again!

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by thewave46

It's interesting that you mention that.

If there's a currency that more subject to political climate, the USD would be it. The 1980s vis-a-vis the Japanese yen is an example of such a situation - the Plaza Accords were a political action.

The Canadian dollar has rarely been brought up as a political football by leaders in the floating exchange era.

Now, the bigger risk to Quebec might be the same risk most countries face when switching currencies: the legacy debts of one's society are denominated in another currency. This makes currency fluctuations a factor in the servicing of that debt. It can be a risky maneuver. Debt denominated in local currency doesn't have that risk.

Those changes may move faster than expected and have led to fiscal crises.

The right course of action would be to immediately introduce a Quebec dollar (QCD?) at the time of independence, but not have it be a free-floating currency at first: have it pegged to the CAD for a transition period of 20 years or so, with that 20 year timeline constitutionally entrenched. This would also prevent Quebec from having its own monetary policy from day 1, but it would mean that Quebec would be able to build up its own monetary system pretty quickly, as it could immediately switch over all of its government treasury from CAD to the new QCD without any complications as the value would be the same. Over the 20 year transition period, Quebec can get its own central bank up & running, build up its own banking regulation system, and roll over a chunk of its CAD debt into new QCD debt. By having it the 20 year peg be constitutionally mandated it would give investors confidence to buy Quebec government bonds in the early years, making it easier to make the switch. After the 20 years is up it can then slowly withdraw the CAD peg over time; from a fixed exchange rate, to a floating band around the CAD value, to eventually a free floating currency; or they could switch the peg to the USD instead of the CAD, or simply maintain a floating band approach.

The Czech Republic, as an example, has its own currency, the CZK, and its own independent monetary policy despite being in the EU, but one of the components of their central bank's mandate is to try and maintain a reasonably stable exchange rate between CZK and EUR. So their monetary independence is somewhat constrained by the need to stabilize the exchange rate with the Euro, but they still have more monetary autonomy than they would have if they just flat out used the Euro. An independent Quebec could have a similar relationship with the CAD.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

The right course of action would be to immediately introduce a Quebec dollar (QCD?) at the time of independence, but not have it be a free-floating currency at first: have it pegged to the CAD for a transition period of 20 years or so, with that 20 year timeline constitutionally entrenched. This would also prevent Quebec from having its own monetary policy from day 1, but it would mean that Quebec would be able to build up its own monetary system pretty quickly, as it could immediately switch over all of its government treasury from CAD to the new QCD without any complications as the value would be the same. Over the 20 year transition period, Quebec can get its own central bank up & running, build up its own banking regulation system, and roll over a chunk of its CAD debt into new QCD debt. By having it the 20 year peg be constitutionally mandated it would give investors confidence to buy Quebec government bonds in the early years, making it easier to make the switch. After the 20 years is up it can then slowly withdraw the CAD peg over time; from a fixed exchange rate, to a floating band around the CAD value, to eventually a free floating currency; or they could switch the peg to the USD instead of the CAD, or simply maintain a floating band approach.

The Czech Republic, as an example, has its own currency, the CZK, and its own independent monetary policy despite being in the EU, but one of the components of their central bank's mandate is to try and maintain a reasonably stable exchange rate between CZK and EUR. So their monetary independence is somewhat constrained by the need to stabilize the exchange rate with the Euro, but they still have more monetary autonomy than they would have if they just flat out used the Euro. An independent Quebec could have a similar relationship with the CAD.

Smart post. In terms of the informal or temporary peg to another currency, what would be the advantage of the CAD over the USD?

In terms of the name of the currency, it could be the Franc or even the Piastre!

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Acajack

In terms of the name of the currency, it could be the Franc or even the Piastre!

Or the peso..........

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Or the peso..........

Well played.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Smart post. In terms of the informal or temporary peg to another currency, what would be the advantage of the CAD over the USD?

In terms of the name of the currency, it could be the Franc or even the Piastre!

It's better tied to your main trading and economic partner. Many shocks have seen the Canadian dollar devalue cushioning us from US recessions. A peg has downsides in that you have to trust that Quebec will always hold the peg. Many especially smart people and companies would move their savings outside Quebec to mitigate this risk. All trade would be denominated in Canadian and US dollars anyway. Canadian companies could agree to use USD for trade if Quebec pegged or adopted that but there would be a cost of that in addition to all the other trade friction that would arise. Brexit shows how unbelievably complicated it is to disentangle modern trade blocs. It is not 1995 anymore.