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Originally Posted by djforsberg
You do know that direct war between NATO and Russia means nuclear war, right? This is the doctrine of mutually assured destruction. This is why the two have NEVER directly battled against each other and why it was called the Cold War. This is also why the idea of Russia invading a NATO country is silly and why suggesting direct NATO involvement in Ukraine is extremely dangerous. You can read more about collective defence on the official NATO website. Russia is not ignorant of this. The reason why it devolves into nuclear war (via mutually-assured destruction) can be explained in the following scenarios:
1. Russia invades Poland.
2. NATO intervenes on behalf of NATO-member Poland.
3. Russia, because it has already made a calculation that it wants Poland, retaliates with full force.
4. NATO responds in kind, hitting targets inside Russia.
5. Russia escalates with nuclear weapons.
6. NATO responds in kind.
7. Bye bye world
Or
1. American or NATO forces directly attacks Russian targets.
2. Russia, responds by attacking American or NATO targets.
3. NATO responds in kind, hitting targets inside Russia.
4. Russia escalates with nuclear weapons.
5. NATO responds in kind.
6. Bye bye world. |
This will never happen.
The World has been closer to nuclear war numerous times in the past 75 years, yet it never has happened. During most of the 1950 and 60s, especially during the Cuban missile crisis in 1962, many assumed the World was heading in this direction, but the intelligence communities of the USA and USSR both knew that deploying nuclear warheads would mean the death of most of it's citizens.
Even if Putin gave orders to nuke Ukraine, the powers that be would never let it happen. This is not unprecedented either. In 1945, Hitler ordered his generals to raze every single German landmark to the ground, so that the Allies would discover a country composed of nothing but rubble. The Nazi brass, and the German generals simply ignored Hitler's orders.
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We must do everything we can to not be in direct conflict with another nuclear power, especially one with the historical relationship of NATO vs Russia. To assume Putin is not capable of escalating this is a risk I don't think we should be taking. We all empathize with Ukraine but we also should be thinking about this rationally instead of with highly-charged emotions.
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The greatest way to deal with an irrational leader, is to use force. Putin does not appreciate diplomacy. He only knows power and strength. Like most bullies, we have to stand up to him. Have you even been paying attention to this conflict? If I had a dollar for every time NATO has ignored Putin's ridiculous threats of nuclear war, and continued to arm the Ukrainians, I would be a wealthy man.
Putin may be irrational, and slightly unhinged, but he is well aware that NATO would turn Russia into rubble within days of any escalation using nuclear weapons. Even if Putin was on a suicide mission to do this, his successors, and the military would outright refuse to obey orders (just like the Nazis did to Hitler). At the end of the day, people want to live. At the end of the day, the Russians are far more afraid of NATO, than NATO is of Russia.
PS...regarding the first scenario, Russia would never attack Poland. In the last decade, Poland has spent a considerable amount on it's military (more than the USA per capita) on it's military. Poland is also militarily stronger than Ukraine. Considering how much of an unmitigated disaster the Ukraine War has been, one can assume that Poland would outright defeat Russia without the help of NATO. It already occurred 100 years ago, shortly after World War 1 ended.
You keep overestimating the strength of the Russian military.
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