Hwy 99 Fraser River Tunnel (George Massey Replacement) | Proposed

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Repthe250

You’re forgetting Delta Port lies south of the Fraser. An extra lane doesn’t just help commuters. It also moves goods. If we want to grow our exports and economy, the current tunnel isn’t gonna cut it.

The current tunnel moves around 85,000 vehicles a day, but only 10% are trucks. The vast majority of the containers moving through Deltaport travel by rail, but there are on average around 550 container trucks using the tunnel in each direction associated with the port. Most containers that are moved from the port by road stay south of the Fraser, and don't use the tunnel.

Even with the doubling of the container facility at Deltaport, which is now not expected to be operational before the mid 2030s at the earliest, only around 1,000 port trucks a day are expected to cross the Fraser in the new tunnel. On the busiest days that could be more, because port traffic isn't completely even through the year, but it's expected to generate less than 2,000 truck movements each way in the busiest 24 hour period.

[mcj]

Originally Posted by Changing City

The current tunnel moves around 85,000 vehicles a day, but only 10% are trucks. The vast majority of the containers moving through Deltaport travel by rail, but there are on average around 550 container trucks using the tunnel in each direction associated with the port. Most containers that are moved from the port by road stay south of the Fraser, and don't use the tunnel.

Even with the doubling of the container facility at Deltaport, which is now not expected to be operational before the mid 2030s at the earliest, only around 1,000 port trucks a day are expected to cross the Fraser in the new tunnel. On the busiest days that could be more, because port traffic isn't completely even through the year, but it's expected to generate less than 2,000 truck movements each way in the busiest 24 hour period.

Thanks for bringing some numbers into this. This is clearly a project to benefit rush-hour private vehicle commuters, building which will lead to further car-dependent sprawl in Delta and South Surrey. $11B could be much better spent on other projects.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

Well, considering that a close relative of mine was deeply involved with the pile driving component of the 2.6b front running bid, and that number has been confirmed by various other sources, it’s far from just an assumption, and calling it that now seems like a poor attempt at a cope.

And it sure as hell wouldn’t have been 11billion!!

That’s right, rumored price tag is now 11 billion for no new interchanges and roughly 2km of tunnel / upgraded highway. (For reference the original plan had 30km of highway upgrades, major interchange rebuilds, median bus lane with direct bus only grade separated ramps, ahhh, you know the story

Just pull the plug and dust off the old documents and build the bridge for an inflated 5 billion, then use the remaining 6 billion for other highway upgrades around the province. Maybe a couple interchange conversions on the SFPR, a couple long promised interchanges in Kelowna, and interchange or two on the 17 through Sannich and Victoria, and maybe some highway 1 twinning.

Source: trust me bro.

I have no doubt a previous crossing would have cost less than one built today, especially in our post-COVID, inflation, US trade war world. That's the case with everything.

If you're suggesting it wouldn't have gone wildly over time and/or budget like pretty much every other large infrastructure project, well...

Clarke promised this in 2013, but only to start construction in 2017. Can't make promises that are more than one election away and be taken seriously.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

If you're suggesting it wouldn't have gone wildly over time and/or budget like pretty much every other large infrastructure project, well...

Which BC Liberal era large infrastructure projects came in over time and over budget? The Canada Line and Evergreen Extension were built on time and on budget. The Port Mann Bridge came on time and on budget and they even had extra room at the end of construction to blow through the remaining budget to accelerate the construction. I won't take value engineering or P3 project management as an excuse for why they did because those are standard ways projects can come within budget and on schedule.

I guess you could argue the John Horgan Dam but they technically didn't do any of the construction.

I also guess you could also argue the Port Mann Bridge ended up over budget because the BCNDP decided to burn money by ending the bridge tolls and paying out penalties to the operators. What a stupid idea.

[griswold]

Should've just build that sweet bridge. LOL what a bunch of stupid assholes.

[Metro-One]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Source: trust me bro.

I have no doubt a previous crossing would have cost less than one built today, especially in our post-COVID, inflation, US trade war world. That's the case with everything.

If you're suggesting it wouldn't have gone wildly over time and/or budget like pretty much every other large infrastructure project, well...

Clarke promised this in 2013, but only to start construction in 2017. Can't make promises that are more than one election away and be taken seriously.

My source is a lot more solid than yours, which is just, “maybe it would have gone over budget!”

The highway 1 upgrade and Port Mann replacement is the best comparison we have to what this project would have been like, and that’s a loooooooooooooot better than this 11 billion dollar 1.1km long tunnel with minimal highway and interchange improvements and bus on shoulder that at best will start construction 5 years after the bridge would have been completed.

And obviously the “it could have gone over budget and been delayed” weak argument also applies to the tunnel project that keeps getting pushed back and delayed and now has a starting cost of 11 billion…

And, conception to main construction in 4 years is actually lighting speed in BC. In 2013 there were several options listed (new tunnel, entirely new corridor, new bridge) which went through consultations and the bridge was selected, then pre construction (pre loading, preparing for pile driving, utilities relocation) commenced and were completed, and then the tender went out for the primary contractor and things were about to get going).

So just say, “Metro-One, you were right. We should not have cancelled the bridge project already in motion, and now this tunnel has become a true boondoggle”

You can do it!

It won’t make you any less of a person to realize when someone else was correct on an issue.

Now, while this is 90% the NDP’s fault, I do also put the blame on the Liberals for not jamming this thing through a few months quicker to get it to the point of no return, akin to the site C Dam which the NDP also wanted to cancel, but was too far along to do so, and now that very same NDP are celebrating the dam and want to potentially build another now! You can’t make this stuff up.

The LNG venture was also the master plan of the Liberals that was too far along for the NDP with the Greens to stop, another endeavor they now celebrate.

[Vantage]

Originally Posted by chowhou

Which BC Liberal era large infrastructure projects came in over time and over budget? The Canada Line and Evergreen Extension were built on time and on budget. The Port Mann Bridge came on time and on budget and they even had extra room at the end of construction to blow through the remaining budget to accelerate the construction. I won't take value engineering or P3 project management as an excuse for why they did because those are standard ways projects can come within budget and on schedule.

I guess you could argue the John Horgan Dam but they technically didn't do any of the construction.

I also guess you could also argue the Port Mann Bridge ended up over budget because the BCNDP decided to burn money by ending the bridge tolls and paying out penalties to the operators. What a stupid idea.

Every project under construction during the pandemic would've been delayed and had budget issues. There was also the 2022 concrete strike that possibly could've delayed the bride project further.

[Metro-One]

Originally Posted by Vantage

Every project under construction during the pandemic would've been delayed and had budget issues. There was also the 2022 concrete strike that possibly could've delayed the bride project further.

Your right, maybe it would have opened in 2023 or 2024 instead of 2022, which still means it would have been open for years by now!

And considering that all major concrete work would have been done before 2022, I doubt the concrete strike would have been a big factor.

All this cope is pretty fun to read. People are really grasping at “perhaps / maybe” straws now to defend the cancellation of the bridge.

Gold medal mental gymnastics though!

[Stainer]

Originally Posted by chowhou

The Canada Line and Evergreen Extension were built on time and on budget.

To be fair, the Evergreen project was delay by 2 years due to tunneling complications.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

Gold medal mental gymnastics though!

I'm not defending anything. It's fair to say the bridge would not have proceeded exactly like the BC Libs had it on paper in 2013.

The tunnel option was always going to be cheaper with tradeoffs.

To somehow suggest the bridge would be half the cost of the tunnel doesn't hold up to common sense.

What's the point in debating something theoretical from so long ago?

[Metro-One]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

I'm not defending anything. It's fair to say the bridge would not have proceeded exactly like the BC Libs had it on paper in 2013.

The tunnel option was always going to be cheaper with tradeoffs.

To somehow suggest the bridge would be half the cost of the tunnel doesn't hold up to common sense.

What's the point in debating something theoretical from so long ago?

The tunnel option was going to be cheaper? Umm, it's now tagged at 11 billion.

The leading bid was 2.6 billion, this was not "theoretical," and included 30 km of highway upgrades and new major interchange upgrades and a true median lane rapid bus with median stations and direct free flow bus access ramps. All one package.

The tunnel is now estimated at 11 billon for a roughly 2km long stretch of major upgraded roadway. This also does not include the costs spent on the pitiful "upgraded" Steveston Interchange and the pitiful at grade conflict ridden bus on shoulder "ramps."

But, let's just say that the project did balloon in cost, heck, lets go 2X (even though that never happened for any of the other major projects built around that era).

Now we are at 5 billion. And let's say it was delayed by a year or two from covid and the concrete strike.

Now we are looking at 5 billion and an opening of 2024 (again, both very unlikely, just playing your game) for a 10 lane bridge, 30 km of upgraded modernized highway, a true rapid bus, and major interchange upgrades.

That would still be less than half the cost of 11 billion, with 28km more of upgraded highway and rapid bus, opened at least 6 years (now likely more) earlier than this boondoggle.

And this will ALWAYS be relevant to this conversation, because this current quagmire is the direct result of cancelling a project that already had pre-construction complete and contractors lined up to commence main construction.

Just say I was right.

No one here will tease you for that.

Or just keep the cope, with "but perhaps maybe this might have happened..."

[Metro-One]

Also, to the point of difference in cost, the Broadway subway (tunneled) costs 3 billion for 6km, while the Expo extension (elevated aka a bridge) is 6 billion for 16 km and more stations, so more than double the cost.

Tunnels really are that much more expensive.

[Repthe250]

Originally Posted by Changing City

The current tunnel moves around 85,000 vehicles a day, but only 10% are trucks. The vast majority of the containers moving through Deltaport travel by rail, but there are on average around 550 container trucks using the tunnel in each direction associated with the port. Most containers that are moved from the port by road stay south of the Fraser, and don't use the tunnel.

Even with the doubling of the container facility at Deltaport, which is now not expected to be operational before the mid 2030s at the earliest, only around 1,000 port trucks a day are expected to cross the Fraser in the new tunnel. On the busiest days that could be more, because port traffic isn't completely even through the year, but it's expected to generate less than 2,000 truck movements each way in the busiest 24 hour period.

If something happens on the Alex Fraser, which it does, often, like ice bombs or accidents, the tunnel is the alternative. And right now it’s a very substandard alternative. Regardless. All this aside. It’s aging and needs to be replaced, and accommodate the capacity it handles today because it doesn’t.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Stainer

To be fair, the Evergreen project was delay by 2 years due to tunneling complications.

Wasn't it always scheduled for a 2016 completion or am I remembering wrong? They did push the completion date to 2017 at one point, but then they reversed it later on. If it was delayed by 2 years doesn't that imply they started construction in 2012 with a 2014 completion date in mind? That's a rapid transit line if I ever heard one!

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

Or just keep the cope, with "but perhaps maybe this might have happened..."

That has been your entire argument.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Repthe250

If something happens on the Alex Fraser, which it does, often, like ice bombs or accidents, the tunnel is the alternative. And right now it’s a very substandard alternative. Regardless. All this aside. It’s aging and needs to be replaced, and accommodate the capacity it handles today because it doesn’t.

Well, it's one of 4 crossings, 2 of the other 3 are relatively new. The oldest one is the tunnel, which of course is long overdue. It's obviously complicated or it would have been underway already. There's a good reason it has been kicked down the road as long as it has.

[Repthe250]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Well, it's one of 4 crossings, 2 of the other 3 are relatively new. The oldest one is the tunnel, which of course is long overdue. It's obviously complicated or it would have been underway already. There's a good reason it has been kicked down the road as long as it has.

Agree to disagree, then. The NDP doesn’t build. Simple as that. Hell, the okanagan hasn’t had a single road infrastructure upgrade since the NDP took over. They’ve completely shelved the only project in the books which was building overpasses at two at grade intersections on the 97, proposed by the Liberals in 2014. It’s just what they do.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Repthe250

Agree to disagree, then. The NDP doesn’t build. Simple as that. Hell, the okanagan hasn’t had a single road infrastructure upgrade since the NDP took over. They’ve completely shelved the only project in the books which was building overpasses at two at grade intersections on the 97, proposed by the Liberals in 2014. It’s just what they do.

They built 2 skytrain extensions and the Patullo Bridge? New St. Paul's Hospital? New Surrey Hospital?

You could give them Site C but I won't.

They have different priorities to be sure. It's not like the NDP is afraid of spending money.

[Vantage]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

Your right, maybe it would have opened in 2023 or 2024 instead of 2022, which still means it would have been open for years by now!

And considering that all major concrete work would have been done before 2022, I doubt the concrete strike would have been a big factor.

All this cope is pretty fun to read. People are really grasping at “perhaps / maybe” straws now to defend the cancellation of the bridge.

Gold medal mental gymnastics though!

Yeah, I'm just refuting the false notion that projects built under certain political parties are somehow immune to delay and budget overruns. Any project under construction during the pandemic would've been delayed even if it was planned by the BC Liberals.

[Vantage]

Also there is difference between a bored tunnel and one that is cast on land and then submerged. One has a lot more risk involved.