The US Census Bureau thread

[PhillyRising]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

You're absolutely mistaken.

CB estimated growth of ~100K

Actual count showed a loss of ~200K

A complete swing and a miss.

You are assuming the actual count was accurate...and who was in office in 2020...no doubt they could have fudged it.

[Steely Dan]

^ and you are talking about the wrong decade.

We were talking about the 2000 - 2010 deacade for chicago.

Obama (a former Chicagoan) was president during the 2010 census.

Ironically, Obama and his family of 4 moving to DC to assume the presidency in 2008 actually contributed, in a very small way of course, to the monumental tsunami of black flight that demographically knee-capped Chicago that decade (approx. -185,000 for decade).

Thanks, Obama.

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

^ and you are talking about the wrong decade.

We were talking about the 2000 - 2010 deacade for chicago.

Obama (a former Chicagoan) was president during the 2010 census.

Ironically, Obama and his family of 4 moving to DC to assume the presidency in 2008 actually contributed, in a very small way of course, to the monumental tsunami of black flight that demographically knee-capped Chicago that decade (approx. -185,000 for decade).

Thanks, Obama.

Not sure Obama contributed as much as you think. I believe he was on the tail end of it - remember Chicago had Michael Jordan and Oprah (who left around 2015), who also both moved. I am not sure when MJ left but I recall reading that his home in the suburbs sat on the market for years because it was so customized. In a sense, Chicago ceased being a 'cool' city in the spotlight when MJ and Oprah left. I remember even the pundits joking that Chicago had virtually no chance of getting the 2016 Olympics when it bid in around 2008 or so.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by DCReid

Not sure Obama contributed as much as you think.

He contributed exactly as much as I think he did.

The math on this is extraordinarily straightforward.

Of the many tens of thousands of black people who moved out of the city of chicago during the '00s, four of them were named Barack, Michelle, Malia, and Sasha Obama.

But getting elected POTUS is obviously a very special-circumstances case.

Most of the black people who left chicago that decade did not leave because they were elected POTUS

[mhays]

Are you sure? Does Obama identify as Black or mixed-race? The same could go for his daughters though Black seems likely for them.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by mhays

Are you sure? Does Obama identify as Black or mixed-race? The same could go for his daughters though Black seems likely for them.

Obama self-identifies as Black. Also, mixed race wasn't an option on the census before 2000.

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

He contributed exactly as much as I think he did.

The math on this is extraordinarily straightforward.

Of the many tens of thousands of black people who moved out of the city of chicago during the '00s, four of them were named Barack, Michelle, Malia, and Sasha Obama.

But getting elected POTUS is obviously a very special-circumstances case.

Most of the black people who left chicago that decade did not leave because they were elected POTUS

African-Americans have been leaving most big cities, including some cities in the South, during the last 2 decades, so Chicago is not really that unique. For example, DC is no longer "Chocolate City" as its Black population has dropped below 50% and even Atlanta is below 50%. In those cities as well as cities like LA, Black neighborhoods have become gentrified or repopulated with other ethnic groups, such as Hispanics in LA. Chicago's issue is that is has been very segregated with few integrated neighborhoods, especially on the south and west sides. So as the Black population leaves, no other ethnic group seems to be moving in to take its place. Even Chicago neighborhoods such as Pilsen and Bridgeport, which were once white working class, have been repopulated, and even white working and middle class suburbs like Cicero (now 90% Hispanic) and Skokie (now 30% Asian), have been repopulated, but much of the south and west sides do not seem to be repopulated as Blacks leave.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by DCReid

African-Americans have been leaving most big cities, including some cities in the South, during the last 2 decades, so Chicago is not really that unique.

I never claimed that black flight was unique to Chicago.

But chicago is one of top cities for it.


top 5 US cities for black flight 2000 - 2020:

1. Detroit: -278,754
2. Chicago: -266,188
3. New York: -185,263
4. Los Angeles: -79,433
5. Washington DC: -58,022

Originally Posted by DCReid

Chicago's issue is that is has been very segregated with few integrated neighborhoods, especially on the south and west sides. So as the Black population leaves, no other ethnic group seems to be moving in to take its place.

That's not entirely true. Latinos continue to move in to some black majority neighborhoods as they get gentrified out of others. Look at Ashburn, Humboldt Park, north Austin, South Chicago and even West Englewood.

It's also important to remember that black gentrification is a thing too.

Chicago's south lakefront (from Douglas down to South Shore and east of the Dan Ryan) is a prime example. It saw solid population growth of +9.7% last decade, and it wasn't because tons of rich white people were moving in. And it's not some tiny little pocket either; this is an area of over 190,000 people on ~13 sq. miles. And though I might be biased cuz I do so much work down there, it's currently the most interesting part of neighborhood Chicago from a development standpoint, IMO. SO! MUCH! INFILL!

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

I never claimed that black flight was unique to Chicago.

But chicago is one of top cities for it.


top 5 US cities for black flight 2000 - 2020:

1. Detroit: -278,754
2. Chicago: -266,188
3. New York: -185,263
4. Los Angeles: -79,433
5. Washington DC: -58,022






That's not entirely true. Latinos continue to move in to some black majority neighborhoods as they get gentrified out of others. Look at Ashburn, Humboldt Park, north Austin, South Chicago and even West Englewood.

It's also important to remember that black gentrification is a thing too.

Chicago's south lakefront (from Douglas down to South Shore and east of the Dan Ryan) is a prime example. It saw solid population growth of +9.7% last decade, and it wasn't because tons of rich white people were moving in. And it's not some tiny little pocket either; this is an area of over 190,000 people on ~13 sq. miles. And though I might be biased cuz I do so much work down there, it's currently the most interesting part of neighborhood Chicago from a development standpoint, IMO. SO! MUCH! INFILL!

DC and New York's loss of African American population is being offset by immigration from Africa and the Caribbean in a way that is not happening (or did not happen) in Chicago and Detroit.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

I never claimed that black flight was unique to Chicago.

But chicago is one of top cities for it.


top 5 US cities for black flight 2000 - 2020:

1. Detroit: -278,754
2. Chicago: -266,188
3. New York: -185,263
4. Los Angeles: -79,433
5. Washington DC: -58,022

What are the cities that bucked that trend from 2000-2020?

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

DC and New York's loss of African American population is being offset by immigration from Africa and the Caribbean in a way that is not happening (or did not happen) in Chicago and Detroit.

Yeah, good point.

I don't know about Detroit, but Chicago's immigration numbers from Africa are fairly small, relatively speaking, with only aboit 50,000 African-born people in the city.

That's not nothing, but way below the figures in the big east coast cities.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by DCReid

Not sure Obama contributed as much as you think. I believe he was on the tail end of it - remember Chicago had Michael Jordan and Oprah (who left around 2015), who also both moved. I am not sure when MJ left but I recall reading that his home in the suburbs sat on the market for years because it was so customized. In a sense, Chicago ceased being a 'cool' city in the spotlight when MJ and Oprah left. I remember even the pundits joking that Chicago had virtually no chance of getting the 2016 Olympics when it bid in around 2008 or so.

I think much of that (at least in the 90's) came from the Bull's dynasty. You just assumed Jordan lived there but once the Bulls fell off (and boy did they) Chicago "coolness" diminished somewhat.

[PhillyRising]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

^ and you are talking about the wrong decade.

We were talking about the 2000 - 2010 deacade for chicago.

Obama (a former Chicagoan) was president during the 2010 census.

Ironically, Obama and his family of 4 moving to DC to assume the presidency in 2008 actually contributed, in a very small way of course, to the monumental tsunami of black flight that demographically knee-capped Chicago that decade (approx. -185,000 for decade).

Thanks, Obama.

The Census sucks at being accurate in older cities in the Northeast and Great Lakes area...I think every one of them is undercounted all the time.

Philadelphia is way over 1.6 million people...they don't keep building all these new apartments in a city people are leaving....

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Yeah, good point.

I don't know about Detroit, but Chicago's immigration numbers from Africa are fairly small, relatively speaking, with only aboit 50,000 African-born people in the city.

That's not nothing, but way below the figures in the big east coast cities.

Detroit also has/had relatively little immigration from sub-Saharan Africa (at least compared to the northeast). The vast majority of black Detroiters are descended from American slavery/the Great Migration. On the other hand, the majority of black New Yorkers are now descended from either the Caribbean or post-1960s immigration from Africa.

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by JManc

I think much of that (at least in the 90's) came from the Bull's dynasty. You just assumed Jordan lived there but once the Bulls fell off (and boy did they) Chicago "coolness" diminished somewhat.

I'm pretty sure that Jordon did have a mansion in the suburbs. I believe that when he moved, he sat on the market for years because it was very customized for him, such as having a full size basketball court. Oprha had just as much influence on Chicago's coolness, especially for women. And I suspect her presence also help attract other TV shows to Chicago, like Judge Mathis and maybe even movies that began to more often filmed in Chicago - but this is just my speculation.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by DCReid

I'm pretty sure that Jordon did have a mansion in the suburbs. I believe that when he moved, he sat on the market for years because it was very customized for him, such as having a full size basketball court. Oprha had just as much influence on Chicago's coolness, especially for women. And I suspect her presence also help attract other TV shows to Chicago, like Judge Mathis and maybe even movies that began to more often filmed in Chicago - but this is just my speculation.

Yeah, Oprah was synonymous with Chicago for a long time. I think she even lived in the JHC for a number of years.

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by JManc

Yeah, Oprah was synonymous with Chicago for a long time. I think she even lived in the JHC for a number of years.

She had a place in either JHC or Water Tower. I'm sure she had multiple places in various cities as most billionaires do.

[SteveD]

Originally Posted by DCReid

She had a place in either JHC or Water Tower. I'm sure she had multiple places in various cities as most billionaires do.

My sister's best friend from College (Penn State) and his husband moved from Pittsburgh to Hawaii when they both retired. They live on the same road as Oprah and bump into her when they're out walking often. They have stopped and had several minute chats with her a few times.

[Crawford]

I don't know if I buy this narrative. Chicago was "hot" in the 1990's due to Oprah? If I asked people on the street where the Oprah show was produced, I doubt a large share would answer Chicago. I think they would be at least as likely (or even more likely) to answer LA or NYC. And not sure how this translates to a city being prominent.

I think a show would only add value to a city brand if the show made the city part of the viewer experience. I don't think those 90's talk shows did that.

[Wigs]

I'm Canadian and recall that Chicago went through a phase of being a cool city to visit in the 1990s. How much was Michael Jordan and Chicago Bulls NBA championships dynasty, how much was Oprah's rising star power/popularity nationwide (and Canada), how much was TV, movies, good PR campaigns, who knows. The collective of all maybe.

When my folks visited due to my Dad attending a metallurgical/Steel industry conference, Oprah's restaurant was a big deal as was 1920s themed gangster tours and faux speakeasy type places to give you a sanitized feel of Al Capone era Chicago. My mom tagged along and they had all sorts of activities for the spouses to do.

Chicago was a fun city when Toronto was still seen as "NY run by the Swiss" that is to say clean and punctual but not a fun or exciting city like Chicago.