Statistics Canada Reports II

[kwoldtimer]

I wonder if we won't see some concrete measures coming out of the Cabinet retreat?

[zahav]

I did some population growth calculations based on the latest Q4 estimates (Oct. 1, 2023, the official release, not the clock). Various growth rates over time for the country and by province is below:

2013-2023
NL +2%
PE +22%
NS +14%
NB +11%
QC +10%
ON +17%
MB +16%
SK +11%
AB +19%
BC +20%
CAN +15%

With the exception of NL, this is remarkably even growth across the country overall. Considering most of recent history (40 years at least), there's always been several provinces with anemic growth, and then some colossal growth in AB or something. But this breakdown shows the growth has really evened out regionally, which is what advocates wanted. NL obviously the outlier from 2013-2023, but their recent growth has been very strong. The low decade growth is due to poor performance from end of 2017 to 2022, since then it's been growing quickly, so expect the 10-year rolling average to get better and better.

Looking at 40-year growth is a different story (I am turning the big four-oh this year, so I find myself doing a lot of these "compare then to now" experiments). In terms of 1983-2023 growth, there is a lot of variation (average per year in brackets)

NL -7% (-0.2%)
PE +40% (1%)
NS +22% (0.6%)
NB +18% (0.4%)
QC +35% (0.9%)
ON +74% (1.9%)
MB +38% (0.9%)
SK +21% (0.5%)
AB +99% (2.5%)
BC +91% (2.3%)
CAN +60% (1.5%)

So Alberta and BC have effectively doubled in just over 40 years (AB doubled from Q4 1982 to now, BC doubled from Q1 1981 to now). You see the effects of slower historical growth in Maritimes and SK (the strong recent growth in the Maritimes and several boom cycles in SK are still counterbalanced with weakness over the period. That phenomenon may very well be over by now, as growth rates have equalized across provinces, as mentioned before. But for example, the highest provincial growth in a 10-year period was AB from 2003-2013, growing 25%. Over that same period, NS grew 0.1%, the lowest in the country (I was surprised by this actually). The 25% to 0.1% is a massive spread in growth, very different that what we see today.

Who knows what growth will be in the time to come? Current indicators suggest insanely high, but that could change along with a million other variables, so we'll wait and see. But it's certainly a trend in the last decade for growth to be spread to all provinces more than ever. I never want to add fuel to the dumpster fire of equalization discussions, but there's arguably more justification than ever to rebalance it. It's become clear that most "have nots" are more than capable of diversifying and sustaining growth, even outpacing larger contributors to equalization like BC and ON in growth. So there's bound to be some head scratching when the beneficiaries are doing so well, especially with demographic growth.

[Architype]

Showing Canada & Nfld's population, and 8 largest cities in 1851/1857.

Perhaps we can change the name of BC to New Caledonia.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Canadian_cities_by_census

[svlt]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

Extremely unsustainable. I once loved watching the clock. Now, it is too much of a good thing. Careful what you wish for I guess

While the total number of people in Canada, and how fast it is going, is a little scary (I suspect it's a huge undercount too with all the international students/migrants/refugees and undocumented people), it's still a fun exercise to see provinces and territories hit some arbitrary numerical milestones. For example:

Quebec will be 9 million in the coming weeks.
NS at 1.1, PEI at 180k and NB at 850k will probably all happen in 2024
Manitoba is quietly flirting with 1.5 million

Much further off will be:
Alberta at 5 million (maybe sooner than later)
BC at 6 million (still a ways off)
Ontario at 20 million (definitely some ways off)

Since the Territories had all hit the 40,000 there hasn't been much to be excited for. NT seems to be treading water, while the Yukon is several years from 50k

Saskatchewan won't have a nice "interesting" number really to aspire to for some time, 1.5 million is a long ways off. NFLD... will it hit 550k anytime soon?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by craner

According to the Statscan Population Clock Quebec is just 2842 away from 9M and Ontario is only 85,659 away from 16M.

http://https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2018005-eng.htm

Quick send a message to Justin, more Door Dash and Tim Hortons workers needed stat! Gotta hit those milestones!

[KnoxfordGuy]

Newfoundland and Labrador is interesting population wise. It was at 568,000 in 1991 before the collapse of the cod fishery, then it seemed to have bottomed out at 505,000 in 2006. 60,000 people gone in 15 years!!!!! Makes one wonder what their population would look like today if that had not happened. Probably a New Brunswick case of stagnation for a generation, then a return to solid growth in the last 10 years, or so.

[Hecate]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Quick send a message to Justin, more Door Dash and Tim Hortons workers needed stat! Gotta hot those milestones!

Exactly. It’s funny, the same people who bitch about us wasting money on our infrastructure needs and demand we save the environment by banning gas powered cars and insist we all pay ridiculous carbon taxes are the same ones championing human population growth in a country that is only habitable because of the mass consumption of energy and resources. It’s like being for and against racism at the same time.

[Martin Mtl]

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/2043063/demandes-asile-canada-2023-record

L’Agence des services frontaliers et Immigration, Réfugiés et Citoyenneté Canada ont traité un nombre record de 144 035 demandes d’asile en 2023, dont plus de 65 500 au Québec, selon les plus récentes données d’Ottawa.

[kwoldtimer]

Time to reimpose visas for Mexicans, among other things.

[savevp]

Originally Posted by Martin Mtl

L’Agence des services frontaliers et Immigration, Réfugiés et Citoyenneté Canada ont traité un nombre record de 144 035 demandes d’asile en 2023, dont plus de 65 500 au Québec, selon les plus récentes données d’Ottawa.

The government have routinely ignored this until public pressure becomes unbearable, like when they did nothing with chemin Roxham for ages. And that was in the politically important province.

Now we see the issue has apparently crept up on the government with either a lack of awareness (like the foreign students fiasco) or blithe indifference (like, say, Trudeau's thoughts on ministerial ethics).

When we have big problems with relatively easy fixes, and all-consuming inertia from government, it's the flashing neon sign that time is up on whoever is in charge.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Time to reimpose visas for Mexicans, among other things.

Mexicans are very important to our fish plants in NB.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by Martin Mtl

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/2043063/demandes-asile-canada-2023-record

L’Agence des services frontaliers et Immigration, Réfugiés et Citoyenneté Canada ont traité un nombre record de 144 035 demandes d’asile en 2023, dont plus de 65 500 au Québec, selon les plus récentes données d’Ottawa.

Like his papa, Justin is the greatest gift to PSPP and PQ.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by Architype

Showing Canada & Nfld's population, and 8 largest cities in 1851/1857.

Perhaps we can change the name of BC to New Caledonia.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Canadian_cities_by_census

I say, just ditch the whole thing and call Canada "Rupert's Land". Except maybe for the NWT, which could be called "Bob"

Northwest Territories looking for new name - 'Bob' need not apply

[Kilgore Trout]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Time to reimpose visas for Mexicans, among other things.

Only 8,000 of those 144,035 asylum seekers were from Mexico. Most Mexicans moving to Canada are immigrants and TFWs.

Do you have a specific problem with Mexicans or something?

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Kilgore Trout

Only 8,000 of those 144,035 asylum seekers were from Mexico. Most Mexicans moving to Canada are immigrants and TFWs.

Do you have a specific problem with Mexicans or something?

I have no problem at all with Mexican PRs and TFWs. The undocumented overstayers, I'm less keen on. Bringing back the visa requirement for Mexicans would be just one of a suite of measures (eg re foreign students and TFWs) the government could take to bring matters under greater control. Whether inordinate numbers of people are getting visas only to claim refugee status on arrival is something that should probably be looked into.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Hecate

Exactly. It’s funny, the same people who bitch about us wasting money on our infrastructure needs and demand we save the environment by banning gas powered cars and insist we all pay ridiculous carbon taxes are the same ones championing human population growth in a country that is only habitable because of the mass consumption of energy and resources. It’s like being for and against racism at the same time.

Indeed, it’s pretty much a given that any TFW, international student or legitimate immigrant is going to have a larger carbon footprint when they come to Canada.

[Kilgore Trout]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

I have no problem at all with Mexican PRs and TFWs. The undocumented overstayers, I'm less keen on. Bringing back the visa requirement for Mexicans would be just one of a suite of measures (eg re foreign students and TFWs) the government could take to bring matters under greater control. Whether inordinate numbers of people are getting visas only to claim refugee status on arrival is something that should probably be looked into.

You have the numbers: 5.5% of asylum seekers. Hardly an "inordinate number" and not worth damaging relations with one of our biggest trading partners, like what happened under Harper.

I've been on the Aeromexico flights from MEX to YUL – they're full of Mexican tourists and businesspeople coming here to spend money.

Besides, there's also the moral question of whether it's right for Canadians to flood Mexico every year — many of them no doubt living and working illegally as tax-evading remote workers — while preventing Mexicans from coming here.

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

The undocumented overstayers

Do you have any source that suggests that is anything more than a handful of undocumented overstayers? Unless you're conflating "asylum seeker" with someone who overstays their visa, in which case you don't seem to understand exactly what an asylum seeker is.

[Kilgore Trout]

A lot of the posts in this thread rest on the assumption that every foreigner who moves to Canada is a tax-evading layabout who does nothing but drain public resources. And yet all the research shows it's exactly the opposite: immigrants boost economic productivity.

That said, I'm not defending the boom in TFWs because that is exactly the kind of exploitative system we should be trying to avoid. It basically means shifting the economy to rely on low-wage workers with virtually no rights and no chance of staying here long-term.

Asylum seekers are claiming asylum for good reasons. Most of their claims area accepted and I'm not aware of any evidence that a significant proportion of those rejected end up evading deportation and staying in Canada. The pearl-clutching about refugees in this thread is based on some xenophobic assumptions that anyone claiming asylum is a cheat. It's not an uncommon attitude, I've seen it plenty of times in other countries, but it's always toxic. I'm guessing none of you have spent much time interacting with actual refugees.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by Kilgore Trout

A lot of the posts in this thread rest on the assumption that every foreigner who moves to Canada is a tax-evading layabout who does nothing but drain public resources. And yet all the research shows it's exactly the opposite: immigrants boost economic productivity.

+1

Unfortunately, too many Canadians listen to the toxic and often parochial/myopic discourse emanating from the United States .... and start regurgitating the same nonsense.

[FrAnKs]

Only 1500 to go before Quebec hits 9 million.