Vancouver Rental Market Discussion

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Here's a quote from reddit that is pretty realistic:

Someone once told me that on principle they would never allow a family, a senior, or anyone with any sort of stability in their life to rent their properties. Students (preferably international), and single young adults only. Why would you ever want a long term tenant? You're massively disincentivized against low value long term tenancy.

We should want to incentivize long term tenancies. Remember how Vancouver has the highest eviction rates in Canada? Maybe it's a coincidence.

[GenWhy?]

I'd be in support of more condo development once the speculation element is taken under control. High land prices don't help condo or rental development for a majority of city dwellers.

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by chowhou

We should want to incentivize long term tenancies. Remember how Vancouver has the highest eviction rates in Canada? Maybe it's a coincidence.

I could be wrong, but I suspect it's due to the high amount of redevelopment.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

I'd be in support of more condo development once the speculation element is taken under control. High land prices don't help condo or rental development for a majority of city dwellers.

So what would control the speculation element?

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

I could be wrong, but I suspect it's due to the high amount of redevelopment.

I too could be wrong, but I find it hard to believe that 1 in 10 rental properties were redeveloped in the past 5 years. And what's the difference between the likes of Vancouver and the likes of Toronto and Montreal both with under half as many evictions?

EDIT:
BC also has the highest eviction rate of all provinces in Canada (and higher than Metro Vancouver alone, meaning you're less likely to be evicted if you're in Vancouver), and I definitely don't believe that Prince George and Duncan are seeing massive amounts of renovictions.

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

So what would control the speculation element?

Stuff above my brain power that involves the feds and all that mortgage mumbo jumbo. The condo frenzy for outrageous prices really hit rental development hard. When it blipped a bit in 2017 that was a godsend. This blip is too.

[GenWhy?]

I don't have enough time to get into that eviction breakdown from 2013-2018, but I assume they mean Metro Vancouver? If so it's definitely easy to rack up a few hundred evictions for 1 or 2 towers.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

I don't have enough time to get into that eviction breakdown from 2013-2018, but I assume they mean Metro Vancouver? If so it's definitely easy to rack up a few hundred evictions for 1 or 2 towers.

Here's the full report.

Percentage of tenants evicted in the last 5 years geographic breakdown:

By Province:

• Manitoba: 3.7%
• Nunuvut: 3.7%
• Quebec: 3.9%
• Newfoundland: 4.9%
• Nova Scotia: 4.9%
• NWT: 5.1%
• Saskatchewan: 5.1%
• New Brunswick: 6.0%
• Alberta: 6.3%
• Ontario: 6.3%
• Yukon: 6.6%
• PEI: 6.8%
• BC: 10.6%

By Metro:

• Montrea CMA: 4.2%
• Non CMA/CA (small towns and rural): 5.4%
• Other CMAs (other large cities): 5.7%
• Toronto CMA: 5.8%
• CAs (small/medium cities): 6.7%
• Vancouver CMA: 10.5%

What do you think we're doing differently in BC and Vancouver?

Also we haven't been tearing down any 20 story buildings yet. Tear down a few aging low rise apartments? Maybe a few hundred displacements, sure, but there are a lot more than a few thousand renters in Metro Vancouver.

[GenWhy?]

Not sure, but Burnaby and Vancouver alone area really effective at evicting renters in large apartment complexes for shiny towers. I think we've had our finger in the pie of evicting over 2k people in the last 5 years.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

Not sure, but Burnaby and Vancouver alone area really effective at evicting renters in large apartment complexes for shiny towers. I think we've had our finger in the pie of evicting over 2k people in the last 5 years.

Why would Toronto be any different though?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

Not sure, but Burnaby and Vancouver alone area really effective at evicting renters in large apartment complexes for shiny towers. I think we've had our finger in the pie of evicting over 2k people in the last 5 years.

Just look at what happened on the streets around Metrotown. Wholesale slaughter of walk-up rentals.

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by chowhou

Why would Toronto be any different though?

Exactly I have no idea I don't pay attention to it out there.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Just look at what happened on the streets around Metrotown. Wholesale slaughter of walk-up rentals.

With all due respect, how many walk-ups actually ended up torn down in Metrotown? I count 10 towers off Beresford but at least one of them was light industrial before being redeveloped.

Edit: A single tower on Patterson too.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

Not sure, but Burnaby and Vancouver alone area really effective at evicting renters in large apartment complexes for shiny towers. I think we've had our finger in the pie of evicting over 2k people in the last 5 years.

It's not the past 5 years. It's 2013 to 2018. The period with a lot of renovictions in areas like the West End, and demovictions in the suburbs. It would also include temporary rentals where developers were waiting to build (like on Cambie) and did short term tenancies. It also includes anybody who lost their rentals so that their landlords could run Airb&b. The 2021 survey is just out, and shown much lower numbers of households who had faced eviction in BC in the previous 5 years (3.6%).

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by chowhou

With all due respect, how many walk-ups actually ended up torn down in Metrotown? I count 10 towers off Beresford but at least one of them was light industrial before being redeveloped.

Edit: A single tower on Patterson too.

Check out p53 of the Metro Vancouver Housing Data Book. Over 850 units demolished in Burnaby, and over 1,000 in Vancouver. The units had to be replaced at least 1 for 1 as non-market rental in Vancouver (and these days in Burnaby too) but it still involved a tenant being displaced.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Changing City

It's not the past 5 years. It's 2013 to 2018. The period with a lot of renovictions in areas like the West End, and demovictions in the suburbs. It would also include temporary rentals where developers were waiting to build (like on Cambie) and did short term tenancies. It also includes anybody who lost their rentals so that their landlords could run Airb&b. The 2021 survey is just out, and shown much lower numbers of households who had faced eviction in BC in the previous 5 years (3.6%).

Thanks for letting me know the 2021 numbers are out, but in my opinion you're twisting the statistics a bit. Yes, evictions are down, but by these numbers we're still the province with the highest eviction rate. Proportionally, only PEI has caught up at 3.3%. Ontario and Quebec are at 2.1% and 2.0% respectively. The Canadian average is 2.1%, so we're still >50% above average.

Here's the numbers.

Originally Posted by Changing City

Check out p53 of the Metro Vancouver Housing Data Book. Over 850 units demolished in Burnaby, and over 1,000 in Vancouver. The units had to be replaced at least 1 for 1 as non-market rental in Vancouver (and these days in Burnaby too) but it still involved a tenant being displaced.

That's a lot lower than I feel like I've been lead to believe.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by chowhou

Thanks for letting me know the 2021 numbers are out, but in my opinion you're twisting the statistics a bit. Yes, evictions are down, but by these numbers we're still the province with the highest eviction rate. Proportionally, only PEI has caught up at 3.3%. Ontario and Quebec are at 2.1% and 2.0% respectively. The Canadian average is 2.1%, so we're still >50% above average.

Here's the numbers.

Think about the numbers. In 2018 the survey said 10.6% of BC residents had been evicted in the previous 5 years. In 2021 3.6% said they had been. Assuming the numbers are correct, that means a significant proportion - well over half - of the evictions must have taken place around 2013 and 2014.

Originally Posted by chowhou

That's a lot lower than I feel like I've been lead to believe.

That's just the demolitions in Vancouver. Tenants where renovictions took place would also be evicted, (and there have been a lot of those as rental stock is getting older and landlords have taken the opportunity to carry out renewals buildings, and also get the opportunity to start at higher rents again). If the eviction rate 2013-2018 was as near as make no difference the same in the whole of BC as it was in Greater Vancouver, that suggests similar processes that caused the high eviction rate were playing out in Prince George, Victoria, Chilliwack etc. etc. If the BC eviction rate has gone down from 10.6% of renters experiencing eviction to 3.6%, that suggests it's not happening in the past two or three years nearly as often as it was, even if it's still slightly more than in other parts of Canada.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Think about the numbers. In 2018 the survey said 10.6% of BC residents had been evicted in the previous 5 years. In 2021 3.6% said they had been. Assuming the numbers are correct, that means a significant proportion - well over half - of the evictions must have taken place around 2013 and 2014.

I looked into the numbers more. The UBC study is actually a different metric than the StatCan numbers, BC was "only" 4.2% from 2013-2018 in the StatCan numbers which doesn't coincide with the 10.6% cited in the study. It turns out that the UBC study is measuring the percentage of renters, while StatCan is measuring the percentage of all households. So yeah, we'd expect BC to still be around 9.1% eviction rate if the relationship is linear (and that's with half a year of eviction bans). (10.6% * (3.6% / 4.2%))

That's just the demolitions in Vancouver. Tenants where renovictions took place would also be evicted, (and there have been a lot of those as rental stock is getting older and landlords have taken the opportunity to carry out renewals buildings, and also get the opportunity to start at higher rents again). If the eviction rate 2013-2018 was as near as make no difference the same in the whole of BC as it was in Greater Vancouver, that suggests similar processes that caused the high eviction rate were playing out in Prince George, Victoria, Chilliwack etc. etc. If the BC eviction rate has gone down from 10.6% of renters experiencing eviction to 3.6%, that suggests it's not happening in the past two or three years nearly as often as it was, even if it's still slightly more than in other parts of Canada.

I'd like to hear this argument again but considering the real number is around ~9.1%.

EDIT: I also looked closer at the Metro Vancouver Housing Data Book you posted earlier. In Metro Vancouver there were 2872 demolitions in the 2013-2018 period, and there were 5595 demolitions in the 2016-2021 period. Doesn't this mean evictions have dropped slightly while demolitions have doubled? I'm not sure if the Vancouver/BC eviction rate can be blamed on demovictions.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by chowhou

I looked into the numbers more. The UBC study is actually a different metric than the StatCan numbers, BC was "only" 4.2% from 2013-2018 in the StatCan numbers which doesn't coincide with the 10.6% cited in the study. It turns out that the UBC study is measuring the percentage of renters, while StatCan is measuring the percentage of all households. So yeah, we'd expect BC to still be around 9.1% eviction rate if the relationship is linear (and that's with half a year of eviction bans). (10.6% * (3.6% / 4.2%))

I'd like to hear this argument again but considering the real number is around ~9.1%.

EDIT: I also looked closer at the Metro Vancouver Housing Data Book you posted earlier. In Metro Vancouver there were 2872 demolitions in the 2013-2018 period, and there were 5595 demolitions in the 2016-2021 period. Doesn't this mean evictions have dropped slightly while demolitions have doubled? I'm not sure if the Vancouver/BC eviction rate can be blamed on demovictions.

As noted before, it's one factor of many. Some will be demovictions, some will be renovictions, some will be failing to pay the rent, some will be falling out with their landlord, some will be the landlord wanting to sell an investment condo, some will be a private landlord saying they want to move a family member into the unit (even if they don't) so that they can try to re-lease it at a higher rent. There are probably other reasons that I can't be bothered to think of.

It's your turn to suggest why BC (and Metro Vancouver) have higher rates of eviction than other provinces. If you're suggesting it's because BC has limited rent control, so did Ontario up to 2018 (and it still does on units built before 2018), and Manitoba has full rent control - rental rates and rent increases are tied directly to units and not to a tenancy. In this case, when a unit is turned over the rents are not reset, but instead, carry over to the next tenant ultimately ensuring that a unit never reaches the true market rent. Manitoba also prescribed a maximum allowable rental increase of 0% in 2022.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Changing City

It's your turn to suggest why BC (and Metro Vancouver) have higher rates of eviction than other provinces. If you're suggesting it's because BC has limited rent control, so did Ontario up to 2018 (and it still does on units built before 2018), and Manitoba has full rent control - rental rates and rent increases are tied directly to units and not to a tenancy. In this case, when a unit is turned over the rents are not reset, but instead, carry over to the next tenant ultimately ensuring that a unit never reaches the true market rent. Manitoba also prescribed a maximum allowable rental increase of 0% in 2022.

Everything I've read suggests that Manitoba's rent control is in most ways much more limited than BC's. BC's is by no means limited, when you have sub-inflationary rent increases, you have enforced rent reductions. BC thankfully does not have vacancy control, but we do have strong rent control.

1. Units less than 20 years old and units renting for more than $1570 per month are exempt.

Cursory research leads me to believe that houses generally tend to be above the rent control limit, as well as 3br.

2. Vacancy control only seems to apply to landlords who own more than 3 rental units in a complex[/LIST]

In a condominium complex with more than three units, a landlord/owner who:

owns three units or less, may increase the rent on the rental unit to amount of their choice;

owns four units or more, may increase the rent on the rental unit to the average of similar or comparable units owned by that landlord.

How common is this? Doesn't this mean if you want to own more than 3 rental units you only have to spread out across multiple properties?