The Canadian Electric Vehicle thread

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by whatnext

And unlike Japan, China is not a democracy or an ally. Which is why Biden is about to do this:


The tariff rate on Chinese EVs is set to jump from 25% to about 100%, sources said, adding that batteries and solar panels from China would also be affected.…

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna151748

And you can bet the USA will not sit still and let China just set up shops in Mexico.

And again you missed the point of my post. Keeping them out of the US is the easy part. But for most of these legacy automakers they used to sell nearly as many cars in China as they did in the US. If they lose China and then lose other emerging markets like Latin America, Africa, Southeast Asia and even India to Chinese and local brands, that will be the end of them. I don't think there's a single legacy automaker that could service all their debt exclusively on domestic sales.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by whatnext

And unlike Japan, China is not a democracy or an ally. Which is why Biden is about to do this:


The tariff rate on Chinese EVs is set to jump from 25% to about 100%, sources said, adding that batteries and solar panels from China would also be affected.…

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna151748

And you can bet the USA will not sit still and let China just set up shops in Mexico.

BYD's Mexican plant, once a decision is made on which state has made the best case for it's location, in intended to build 150,000 units for the Mexican market. The threat to US manufacturers is that unless they have equivalent price, and range models, they won't be competitive in Mexico.

They're also setting up a plant in Brazil (in a location that Ford closed in 2021). They already have a bus manufacturing plant in California, and another opened in 2019 in Newmarket in Canada with bus assembly for the Canadian market.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Changing City

BYD's Mexican plant, once a decision is made on which state has made the best case for it's location, in intended to build 150,000 units for the Mexican market. The threat to US manufacturers is that unless they have equivalent price, and range models, they won't be competitive in Mexico.

They're also setting up a plant in Brazil.

Yep. The Chinese automakers have started to basically build contingency plans. They'll start with enough production capacity to service Latin America. And if allowed, they'll go into the US. But it's they can't, there's plenty of marketshare in the rest of the world to take from legacy automakers.

Excusing the bad grammar... There's a lot of room for them to take share here:



The large Japanese brands are particularly vulnerable to sales losses in China:



I am hoping this drives competition and we get better products.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by Wigs

100k more registrations or 257% increase in 3 years ain't bad

Yes, ain't bad but you have to remember what a low mark they were starting from and there is no two-ways around it, 100% EV interest is very much waning. You also have to consider that the majority of those sales were in Quebec & BC which have added welfare cheques to Ottawa's. How would EVs be doing if the well-off didn't get such government largess? Kinda easy for people to get an EV when Ottawa helping pay for it.

EV sales went up about 75% last year but 100% EVs went up 40 while plugin-hybrids went up 80%. Not surprising as plug-ins are more practical especially for people in condos/apt.

You also have to keep in mind that these are 100k more registrations which are NOT the same as sales. The rich enjoy their play things but the average person who doesn't have money to throw around, EVs for sale are not popular.

Leases are doing well as a person can lease one for 5 years and then get rid of it and ditto for businesses where they enjoy the tax write-offs. For us regular plebeians however, we don't enjoy the benefits of being wealthy to buy one, getting a tax write-off, don't have a company car where they don't pay the higher insurance, and certainly can't be getting a new car every 5 years. The later point is very relevant as 100% EVS plunge in value which is why used Teslas are so damn cheap.

100% EVs are still very much in their infancy but that of course will change but for now, they are simply not an option for most drivers financially and practically. Proof is in the pudding, despite the welfare bribes they still only command 10% of the market.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Yes, ain't bad but you have to remember what a low mark they were starting from and there is no two-ways around it, 100% EV interest is very much waning. You also have to consider that the majority of those sales were in Quebec & BC which have added welfare cheques to Ottawa's. How would EVs be doing if the well-off didn't get such government largess? Kinda easy for people to get an EV when Ottawa helping pay for it.

EV sales went up about 75% last year but 100% EVs went up 40 while plugin-hybrids went up 80%. Not surprising as plug-ins are more practical especially for people in condos/apt.

You also have to keep in mind that these are 100k more registrations which are NOT the same as sales. The rich enjoy their play things but the average person who doesn't have money to throw around, EVs for sale are not popular.

Leases are doing well as a person can lease one for 5 years and then get rid of it and ditto for businesses where they enjoy the tax write-offs. For us regular plebeians however, we don't enjoy the benefits of being wealthy to buy one, getting a tax write-off, don't have a company car where they don't pay the higher insurance, and certainly can't be getting a new car every 5 years. The later point is very relevant as 100% EVS plunge in value which is why used Teslas are so damn cheap.

100% EVs are still very much in their infancy but that of course will change but for now, they are simply not an option for most drivers financially and practically. Proof is in the pudding, despite the welfare bribes they still only command 10% of the market.

That's a lot of words to say you were wrong and talking out of your backside. Take the L sometimes. Also, Wig posted data on specifically Battery Electric Vehicles. Do you need an explanation of what that means? Lastly, incentives have been decreasing between 2019 and 2023 and sales of BEVs still went up.

[OldDartmouthMark]

So now that we've all but concluded that the OEM's are toast, and that China will own the EV market in Canada moving forward, where do we go from here?

It seems odd that Canada is helping to hand the EV market to China, especially given all of the issues that we as a country have had with them.

Strange times.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The large Japanese brands are particularly vulnerable to sales losses in China.

I am surprised the Japanese brands have that much penetration into the Chinese market given the antipathy between the nations.

I am also wondering if the Chinese auto market has peaked given their demographics.

But yes, aiming to developing markets seems to be the best strategy for them.

[Jaws]

Originally Posted by thewave46

I am surprised the Japanese brands have that much penetration into the Chinese market given the antipathy between the nations.

I think China welcoming the Japanese OEMs was the Chinese authorities playing long game in order to learn Japanese manufacturing processes and use (steal) their IP. Technology first, retribution later.

[Airboy]

Next place to go is Better EV transit vehicles. Current busses running here only run for one shift. Current diesel buses with normally stay on the road until they need maintenance.

ETS and STAT have had issues also with the model they run( the Company went under and the batteries can only be changed out at the factory.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Jaws

I think China welcoming the Japanese OEMs was the Chinese authorities playing long game in order to learn Japanese manufacturing processes and use (steal) their IP. Technology first, retribution later.

Bingo.

Meanwhile:

Biden announces 100% tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles
White House levy to protect US makers from cheap imports likely to inflame trade tensions

The US president, Joe Biden, has announced a 100% tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles as part of a package of measures designed to protect US manufacturers from cheap imports.

In a move that is likely to inflame trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies, the White House said it was imposing more stringent curbs on Chinese goods worth $18bn.

Sources said the move followed a four-year review and was a preventive measure designed to stop cheap subsidised Chinese goods flooding the US market and stifling the growth of the American green technology sector.

As well as a tariff increase from 25% to 100% on EVs, levies will rise from 7.5% to 25% on lithium batteries, from zero to 25% on critical minerals, from 25% to 50% on solar cells, and from 25% to 50% on semiconductors....

https://www.theguardian.com/business...ctric-vehicles

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by thewave46

I am surprised the Japanese brands have that much penetration into the Chinese market given the antipathy between the nations.

I am also wondering if the Chinese auto market has peaked given their demographics.

But yes, aiming to developing markets seems to be the best strategy for them.

Japan is well regarded for its exquisite craftmanship and cultural affinity for quality control. To the point many Chinese brands add Japanese lingo to increase its cachet. It's really only the hyper-nationalists (a loud minority in every east Asian country) that actively shuns and boycotts Japanese products.

Japan remains by far the top #1-2 tourist destination for Chinese tourists as well, trading the top spot with Thailand.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Jaws

I think China welcoming the Japanese OEMs was the Chinese authorities playing long game in order to learn Japanese manufacturing processes and use (steal) their IP. Technology first, retribution later.

That's an odd thing to say given that the Chinese are so far ahead on EVs and the Japanese are so far behind. Indeed, it was the Godfather of the Chinese EV sector (Wan Gang) that convinced the Chinese government to invest in EVs because they would never catch up to legacy automakers on petrol or diesel engines. Arguably the most beneficial partnerships for China have actually been the German luxury brands for teaching them design and quality control at the high end. They are applying the same principles at far lower price points with electrification now.

[Jaws]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

That's an odd thing to say given that the Chinese are so far ahead on EVs and the Japanese are so far behind. Indeed, it was the Godfather of the Chinese EV sector (Wan Gang) that convinced the Chinese government to invest in EVs because they would never catch up to legacy automakers on petrol or diesel engines. Arguably the most beneficial partnerships for China have actually been the German luxury brands for teaching them design and quality control at the high end. They are applying the same principles at far lower price points with electrification now.

It's not an odd thing to say because it was in a historical context as to why Japanese ICE vehicles are popular in China.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

That's an odd thing to say given that the Chinese are so far ahead on EVs and the Japanese are so far behind. Indeed, it was the Godfather of the Chinese EV sector (Wan Gang) that convinced the Chinese government to invest in EVs because they would never catch up to legacy automakers on petrol or diesel engines. Arguably the most beneficial partnerships for China have actually been the German luxury brands for teaching them design and quality control at the high end. They are applying the same principles at far lower price points with electrification now.

Yeah but German brands are not noted for their reliability or longevity. Toyota on the other hand...

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

So now that we've all but concluded that the OEM's are toast, and that China will own the EV market in Canada moving forward, where do we go from here?

It seems odd that Canada is helping to hand the EV market to China, especially given all of the issues that we as a country have had with them.

Strange times.

Especially weird as we fought to be included in their fortress America for their subsidy. At some point their patience may wear thin. It's not as much of an issue now as TSLA doesn't care from where they sell to us and only corporations get listened to in US politics. Well and unions but the TSLA workers are not unionized and I guess they are running full shifts anyway.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Jaws

It's not an odd thing to say because it was in a historical context as to why Japanese ICE vehicles are popular in China.

If the idea is that they copied ICE vehicles, that is kinda hard to say. All their recent success comes from EVs. Not ICEVs. And there's not much Toyota (the brand famously lacking in EVs) could have taught them.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

So now that we've all but concluded that the OEM's are toast, and that China will own the EV market in Canada moving forward, where do we go from here?

It seems odd that Canada is helping to hand the EV market to China, especially given all of the issues that we as a country have had with them.

Strange times.

How so? We aren't exactly facilitating Chinese imports of EVs. I don't see any actual Chinese brands here, like you see in Europe. The majority of EVs sold in Canada have been North American or European made. And it's likely to stay that way for a while. I expect our government will follow suit on tariffs too. Either this government or the next.

What I worry about is the survival of these companies in the long term. They have a high dependence on both the Chinese market and international markets for their profitability and even their survivability. If they are restricted to just their home market, they are going to have a rough go, and their products are going to keep getting worse. And as a consequence, we as consumers, are going to get subpar products and will be forced to buy them to keep them alive. All because they made shit decisions in pursuit of quarterly profits and refused to develop the technological, industrial and talent base necessary to compete with the Chinese.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

How so? We aren't exactly facilitating Chinese imports of EVs. I don't see any actual Chinese brands here, like you see in Europe. The majority of EVs sold in Canada have been North American or European made. And it's likely to stay that way for a while. I expect our government will follow suit on tariffs too. Either this government or the next.

What I worry about is the survival of these companies in the long term. They have a high dependence on both the Chinese market and international markets for their profitability and even their survivability. If they are restricted to just their home market, they are going to have a rough go, and their products are going to keep getting worse. And as a consequence, we as consumers, are going to get subpar products and will be forced to buy them to keep them alive. All because they made shit decisions in pursuit of quarterly profits and refused to develop the technological, industrial and talent base necessary to compete with the Chinese.

TSLA imported 45000 from China. That was a huge increase from 2022 and I am not sure did it begin already Jan 1 or will 2024 see even more of them. It's a significant portion and makes us look ridiculous when we are benefitting from US manufacturers using our battery plants.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

TSLA imported 45000 from China. That was a huge increase from 2022 and I am not sure did it begin already Jan 1 or will 2024 see even more of them. It's a significant portion and makes us look ridiculous when we are benefitting from US manufacturers using our battery plants.

That was for around 6 months in 2023. It was reported they switched back to US made cars towards the end of the year. Obviously there's nothing stopping them from switching again in future.

[SFUVancouver]

Since Tesla broke ground on Gigafactory Shanghai in 2019, its plan was always to scale the plant to supply the Chinese domestic market plus a significant fraction of Tesla's total global export market for Model 3 and later Model Y. This permits Tesla's Fremont plant to serve the US market, produce export quantities of all models, while having the ability to periodically take some capacity offline for retooling, scheduled maintenance, or product ramp. Basically they can opportunistically serve export markets by the lowest cost option (Fremont or Shanghai) while having spare global production capacity to periodically take lines offline as needed.

Basically they have two garden hoses of export capacity (Fremont and China) and decide on a quarter-by-quarter or even shipment-by-shipment basis which hose it makes the most sense to use to serve demand in any given market. Prior to Gigafactory Berlin, Tesla served the European market primarily with China. Now that Berlin is up and running, it is serving the European market for Model Y while Model 3 still largely comes from China. The hose spraying Model Y exports from China then got played on Canada for a while, and it would just make sense to include Model 3s from China as well for Canadian shipments.

Once Gigafactory Austin hits its stride with Model Y production, expect Canada to be served from there instead of China. No sense putting cars on boats when they can go by train. Model 3 is likely to continue coming from Fremont whenever possible, too, for the same reason.