CHICAGO | Politics and Current Events

[west-town-brad]

Originally Posted by moorhosj1

Worth calling out that the biggest complaint about Johnson during the campaign was that crime would run out of control and cops would quit en masse. Neither has happened so far, although other decisions have certainly been poor/questionable.

true. though there continues to be a retirement vs. new recruit issue. the numbers cited are flat but there's still a hole of like 1,000 officers or something that was there under lightfoot.

Johnson was forced at the end of the campaign to promise that he would not cut one single dollar from the police budget.

it's all political nonsense because they can move expenses around and funds around to tell the story they want to tell.

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by west-town-brad

true. though there continues to be a retirement vs. new recruit issue. the numbers cited are flat but there's still a hole of like 1,000 officers or something that was there under lightfoot.

Johnson was forced at the end of the campaign to promise that he would not cut one single dollar from the police budget.

it's all political nonsense because they can move expenses around and funds around to tell the story they want to tell.

And crime is up 33% ytd. From very bad to even worse under BJ. I knew this guy would be worse than Lightfoot.

[moorhosj1]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

And crime is up 33% ytd. From very bad to even worse under BJ. I knew this guy would be worse than Lightfoot.

Can you be more specific or show your data? I shared a bunch of crime metrics (murders, shootings, car jacking, CTA crime - the ones everyone on this board focuses on) that are down this year.

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by moorhosj1

Can you be more specific or show your data? I shared a bunch of crime metrics (murders, shootings, car jacking, CTA crime - the ones everyone on this board focuses on) that are down this year.

CPD reports crime is up year to date

https://home.chicagopolice.org/stati...me-statistics/

[moorhosj1]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

CPD reports crime is up year to date

https://home.chicagopolice.org/stati...me-statistics/

Appreciate the followup (and the data). The robbery and theft increases are quite alarming. It follows the general uneasiness I hear from fellow citizens. It doesn't feel as safe/comfortable walking around the streets. I would like to hear about some larger plan to combat this increase.

I will say that the 104% increase in motor vehicle thefts is happening all over the country and is much harder to pin on any individual mayor. It is being driven by Hyundai and Kia's refusal to fix their faulty product, as proven by their attempt to settle a class action law suit. I think Congress needs to step in on this issue.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

CPD reports crime is up year to date

https://home.chicagopolice.org/stati...me-statistics/

I'm not going to defend something going up, as it's not good and I'd love to see it going down but some of the crime types we see (especially robbery) are still below most pre-pandemic years. Some only similar to a few pre pandemic years while others are more similar or below most years. There's a reason why various publications never show data before say 2019 when talking about some of these crime types.


So yet again, where were peoples' complaints in 2016, 2017, and even a decade ago? Just because we have 500 apps and publications telling us everything doesn't mean it's actually happening the most currently.

Robbery, thru 8/16 each year, city-wide. *includes carjackings*
2023: 6066
2022: 5046
2021: 4321
2020: 4642
2019: 4853
2018: 5975
2017: 6947
2016: 6909
2015: 5436
2014: 5786
2013: 7233
2012: 8029
2011: 8247
2010: 8478
2009: 9834
2008: 9705

2020 and 2021 were the lowest years of robbery (makes sense - lockdowns etc far less people outside of their homes) and 2022 was barely above 2019. Right now, 2023 is very similar to 2018's numbers and far below 2008-2013 (and probably before), and 2016, 2017.

Murder, thru 8/22 each year, city-wide
2023: 407
2022: 437
2021: 523
2020: 489
2019: 319
2018: 373
2017: 453
2016: 463
2015: 304
2014: 253
2013: 269
2012: 349
2011: 268
2010: 303
2009: 298
2008: 332

These numbers are a little more egregious and while they're coming down, still too high. Even so, they're a bit below 2016 and 2017.


Criminal Sexual Assault (i.e. rape), thru 8/16 each year, city-wide
2023: 983
2022: 990
2021: 927
2020: 815
2019: 1065
2018: 1057
2017: 1061
2016: 1035
2015: 918
2014: 842
2013: 872
2012: 936
2011: 962
2010: 921
2009: 942
2008: 974

2023 is still less than 2016-2019 and in range of 2010-2012 and 2015. 2020 was similar to 2013 and 2014 but lower.


Aggravated Assault/Battery, thru 8/16 each year, city-wide. Typically includes non-fatal shootings
2023: 10,228
2022: 9584
2021: 9895
2020: 9618
2019: 9482
2018: 9314
2017: 9244
2016: 9240
2015: 8043
2014: 9415
2013: 9791
2012: 9325
2011: 9672
2010: 10,686
2009: 11,614
2008: 11,796

2023 is higher than any year from 2011 to 2022, but it's not drastically above a year like 2019 (7.9% above) or 2013 (4.5% above). Lower than 2010 and before.

[west-town-brad]

^

the data does show robberies to be relatively stable over the years, however I wonder if the amount of carjackings has increased recently... the state did feal the need to install license plate readers and increase the use aircraft surveillance on highways in the chicago region over the last year or so.

[moorhosj1]

Originally Posted by west-town-brad

^

the data does show robberies to be relatively stable over the years, however I wonder if the amount of carjackings has increased recently... the state did feal the need to install license plate readers and increase the use aircraft surveillance on highways in the chicago region over the last year or so.

Carjackings did increase in 2021 and 2022, there were tons of stories about it. I think since the Hyundai/Kia loophole went viral, there is less of it. It's easier to just swipe a car with nobody in it.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by west-town-brad

^

the data does show robberies to be relatively stable over the years, however I wonder if the amount of carjackings has increased recently... the state did feal the need to install license plate readers and increase the use aircraft surveillance on highways in the chicago region over the last year or so.

Carjacking are down 27% YOY this year. They increased a lot during the pandemic in many cities. Chicago is going down now with it quite a lot but other cities like DC are seeing massive increases. DC at around a quarter the population of Chicago barely has less of them this year. They've doubled the amount since last year and somehow this isn't in the news, but Chicago with a 30% decrease still is.

As far as robbery goes, the trend is still down. There was a lot more in the city a decade ago and also 2016 and 2017 than today. The pandemic years were the lowest recorded. And how I see 2023 is basically coming back up to the normal pre pandemic range. There's a reason why various publications like CWB and Wirepoints never show you the data before 2019. And sometimes they'll show 2018 only if it doesn't ruin the point they're trying to make. Hopefully the robbery can decrease again but well see.

Here's the carjacking (again, a type of robbery) numbers thru 8/20:
2023: 791
2022: 1082
2021: 1016
2020: 745
2019: 331
2018: 456
2017: 518
2016: 348
2015: 184
2014: 174
2013: 210
2012: 307
....
2004: 705
2003 836
2002: 874
2001: 836

Most people forget or don't know that the early 2000s were popular for this too.

[moorhosj1]

Originally Posted by marothisu

2004: 705
2003 836
2002: 874
2001: 836

Most people forget or don't know that the early 2000s were popular for this too.

I get the point, but the early-2000s were literally a generation ago. I think most people would expect more progress over that time.

[Tom In Chicago]

I'm wondering if the problem has to do with perception of higher crime. . . could it be that the crime we're seeing is no longer confined to south and west sides, but rather in desirable areas where hold ups and what not are not expected? Also could have something to do with the roving gangs of thugs who are riding around looking for victims. . . thoughts???

. . .

[moorhosj1]

A Chicago Cop Is Accused of Lying Under Oath 44 Times. Now Prosecutors Are Dropping Cases That Relied on His Testimony.

Prosecutors in Illinois have dropped at least 15 court cases that hinged on the word of a former Chicago police officer who’s now charged with perjury and forgery after he got dozens of traffic tickets dismissed by testifying each time that his girlfriend had stolen his car.

Jeffrey Kriv is accused of lying under oath 44 times to get out of speeding, parking and red light camera tickets involving his personal vehicles.

Don't worry, he retired in January with a nice pension.

While Kriv retired in January just before he was charged criminally, he had faced nearly 100 misconduct complaints from citizens and fellow officers in his tenure on the force.

I hope the people who constantly complain about Kim Foxx not prosecuting can acknowledge that you can't prosecute with a witness who is under indictment.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by moorhosj1

I get the point, but the early-2000s were literally a generation ago. I think most people would expect more progress over that time.

Agree, and it did go down a ton after this. Then it became a thing again in the US starting around 2018 and increasing a lot more during the pandemic. Places like DC are seeing a literal doubling from last year while cities like Chicago are now seeing some pretty big decreases. History repeats itself.

[SamInTheLoop]

Originally Posted by marothisu

They actually used the term Graduated and the Sun Times article did a better job of confirming it than Crain's did. The first $1M goes from 0.75% to 0.6%. So most sales in the city for residential will see a reduction. And your $1.1M property will see a $500 increase from previous.

Obviously the higher the price a place is, the more money.

Yep, graduated is the correct term - progressive just means there's a higher rate with higher prices, income etc.

Thanks for confirming. This has been my major question, as most of the articles I've seen had no indication whether graduated or even suggested it was not.

Not graduated would have been concerning, as you can imagine the extent of market distortions, likely fraud and just general sketchiness that would have occurred. Not suggesting you won't get some of that anyway, but an ungraduated scheme is just asking for pain. If not mistaken, I believe some jurisdictions including major ones around the country have inexplicably gone down this route?

[ardecila]

Originally Posted by Rizzo

You can’t expect the police to be everywhere to enforce. Of all the close calls there’s probably like 0.00001% chance they will be anywhere nearby to see or receive a report of a reckless driver. Chicago must develop a redundant grid of physically separated bike lanes every mile square on minor arterials and I feel like that will actually happen in the next decade.

Of course the cops won't be everywhere. That's not how enforcement works. People obey the law because they know they might get a ticket, even if the odds are low. But now the cops have all but abandoned their duty to enforce traffic laws across the city, and drivers have picked up on that pretty quickly, especially the most reckless drivers. They've noticed that, whereas they used to get tickets once a month, now they're getting none. And they feel emboldened to treat our streets like a drag strip.

Originally Posted by glowrock

As a member of the esteemed bike community, can you please push your fellow community members to stay the hell off the sidewalk when riding on corridors that already have bike lanes present.

In my area, most of the people riding on sidewalks are migrants from Latin America who are being "housed" at the local police station or nearby. They just have a different conception of public space, I guess. I agree it's annoying, but when reckless drivers also feel entitled to park in bike lanes and on sidewalks and the drivers are actually out here killing people, I can't get worked up about a relatively harmless dude riding a Divvy on the sidewalk.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by ardecila

Of course the cops won't be everywhere. That's not how enforcement works. People obey the law because they know they might get a ticket, even if the odds are low. But now the cops have all but abandoned their duty to enforce traffic laws across the city, and drivers have picked up on that pretty quickly, especially the most reckless drivers. They've noticed that, whereas they used to get tickets once a month, now they're getting none. And they feel emboldened to treat our streets like a drag strip.



In my area, most of the people riding on sidewalks are migrants from Latin America who are being "housed" at the local police station or nearby. They just have a different conception of public space, I guess. I agree it's annoying, but when reckless drivers also feel entitled to park in bike lanes and on sidewalks and the drivers are actually out here killing people, I can't get worked up about a relatively harmless dude riding a Divvy on the sidewalk.

I think riding on a sidewalk is not a huge deal as long as it's done slowly and carefully and the biker yields to pedestrians.

[glowrock]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

I think riding on a sidewalk is not a huge deal as long as it's done slowly and carefully and the biker yields to pedestrians.

That's the problem. As a pedestrian, I've damned near been run over multiple times by bicyclists on the sidewalk riding in both directions, erratically, on their phones, riding like a tour de France wannabe, etc. Etc. Seriously, it's a huge problem, not just confined to one segment of the population.

Aaron (Glowrock)

[OrdoSeclorum]

Originally Posted by glowrock

That's the problem. As a pedestrian, I've damned near been run over multiple times by bicyclists on the sidewalk riding in both directions, erratically, on their phones, riding like a tour de France wannabe, etc. Etc. Seriously, it's a huge problem, not just confined to one segment of the population.

Aaron (Glowrock)

Whenever there's ANY discussion ANYWHERE about some regulation, process or design that affects motorists someone replies, "What about cyclists that don't come to a complete stop at stop signs!" The people who say this sort of thing seem like hypocrites and that's how people usually react to them in the comments. But not me. Because I know they aren't really hypocrites. They are people who don't believe their own bullshit. To violate a value, you need to have the value. They just like making it seem like everyone else is awful too. Here are some other things they say:

"What about all of the Irish who were slaves?"

"I read that many native Americans actually feel that Chief Wahoo is honoring them."

"Blizzard in March? So much for global warming!"

"When is white history month?"

It's all from just one kind of person.

[Rizzo]

Originally Posted by ardecila

Of course the cops won't be everywhere. That's not how enforcement works. People obey the law because they know they might get a ticket, even if the odds are low. But now the cops have all but abandoned their duty to enforce traffic laws across the city, and drivers have picked up on that pretty quickly, especially the most reckless drivers. They've noticed that, whereas they used to get tickets once a month, now they're getting none. And they feel emboldened to treat our streets like a drag strip.
.

Well per Wikipedia and WGN there was about 1700 less officers in 2022 from 2017. That’s in essence 1 patrol per shift per day on every street in this city end to end. That’s where the enforcement went - attrition. Crime is up citywide the last few years, reducing resources of routine traffic enforcement. Oh and there’s the cameras. They work, but the current administration has said they oppose speed and red light cameras. It shows lack of priority for passive enforcement

The cops do in fact patrol problem areas. If you have a good alderman, all it takes is a call and there will be a patrol observing crosswalk violations. No one should expect enforcement to come automatically in a big city. But a camera could do that 24/365

[Kngkyle]

Cyclists can't win. They get yelled at when on the road. They get yelled at when on sidewalks. If there happens to be a bike lane it's full of delivery vehicles, parked cars, and pedestrians. Then you have a tiny minority of Tour de Chads that makes everyone hate cyclists.

Just constantly fucked.