SAN FRANCISCO | Projects: Under Construction, Approved, and Proposed

[fimiak]

The US census bureau has lowered its 2050 growth forecast to between 399 and 438 million Americans. Taking the lesser figure to be conservative, that is approximately 43% growth from 280 million Americans in 2000.

Taking San Francisco population of 776,000 in 2000, and increasing it by the national average of 43%, the population of San Francisco should be 1,109,680 in 2050.

I do not see why San Francisco cannot finally come to terms with its place as not just a top 5 US city in importance, but also a global city to be compared with the best of Europe and Asia. This means intense growth and a focus on creating a metropolitan-focused expansion.

(begin rant) The Central Subway is a good start but there needs to be a Geary corridor as well as a complete rethinking of Soma, which should look more like New York's Upper East Side with a mix of tall and short, in order to accomodate office workers that want to walk and bike to work in the new office buildings being built in the Transbay district. Mission street and Folsom need to lead to charge by allowing 10-15+ story buildings to be built. It absolutely amazes me how little business is on these two streets. Where are the flower shops? Bakeries? Normal businesses that aren't furniture stores or nocturnal nightclubs? City hall should hire me look into that issue (end rant)

[fflint]

Originally Posted by fimiak

The US census bureau has lowered its 2050 growth forecast to between 399 and 438 million Americans. Taking the lesser figure to be conservative, that is approximately 43% growth from 280 million Americans in 2000.

Taking San Francisco population of 776,000 in 2000, and increasing it by the national average of 43%, the population of San Francisco should be 1,109,680 in 2050.

The Bureau isn't likely to predict any of the old, dense cities will grow at the national rate, however, and you should not expect that either. Perhaps Detroit could, with its present-day 50 square miles of empty land, match the national rate of growth. Yet cities like San Francisco do not have miles and miles of virgin land in reserve, nor can we just expand the footprint of residential districts outward, the way the nation as a whole can. Absent some radical and as-now unexpected change, SF will still be 45 square miles in 2050. That is, if rising sea levels don't actually make the land area smaller!

In any case, the point is that you're never going to get the massive population growth a la the suburbs in built-out cities with finite parcels of land upon which to build. And as the decades go on, as all the brownfield parcels are redeveloped, new construction will come almost exclusively via skyscrapers, by far the most expensive form of new housing construction. That means new housing will be luxury housing, as we see in Rincon Hill already, and that in turn means the city must be actually able to attract and retain luxury home owners at whatever rate it can. It won't likely be as easy as it would be to attract ordinary people.

[fimiak]

Originally Posted by fflint

The Bureau isn't likely to predict any of the old, dense cities will grow at the national rate, however, and you should not expect that either. Perhaps Detroit could, with its present-day 50 square miles of empty land, match the national rate of growth. Yet cities like San Francisco do not have miles and miles of virgin land in reserve, nor can we just expand the footprint of residential districts outward, the way the nation as a whole can. Absent some radical and as-now unexpected change, SF will still be 45 square miles in 2050. That is, if rising sea levels don't actually make the land area smaller!

In any case, the point is that you're never going to get the massive population growth a la the suburbs in built-out cities with finite parcels of land upon which to build. And as the decades go on, as all the brownfield parcels are redeveloped, new construction will come almost exclusively via skyscrapers, by far the most expensive form of new housing construction. That means new housing will be luxury housing, as we see in Rincon Hill already, and that in turn means the city must be actually able to attract and retain luxury home owners at whatever rate it can. It won't likely be as easy as it would be to attract ordinary people.

Even if SF in 2050 were able to reach 1,100,000 residents, the cities population density would only be 23,400 pop. per sq. mi, less than that of New York. A lot can happen in ~37 years. There are entire neighborhoods that are still to be built esp. in Mission Bay, Transbay, Hunter's Point, Candlestick, etc. that will bring in tens of thousands. You are right, however, I do not believe that SF will grow at the nationwide rate in the next 37 years. Still though, the city can and should keep its current growth spurt going for as long as possible. A goal of 20,000 pop./sq. ft density is 950,000 people, and that many people will be accommodated by higher apartment buildings and a build out of transit options in the city.

[timbad]

in case anyone was wondering how 333 Fremont is coming along... this is looking north:

[NOPA]

Awesome photo Timbad! Keep it up!

Also, more deets on the development on Harrison and 2nd via socketsite. Is there a seperate thread for this project? I sure hope they upzone this for higher density!

http://www.socketsite.com/archives/2013/...is_east_soma_block_bigger_than_plan.html

[biggerhigherfaster]

sigh, apparently the 333 Fremont project is just 8 stories. It's a stylish building, but it would be great to see something closer to 30 stories in that area

[peanut gallery]

^Fear not, there will be several tall buildings in the area. Across the street will be this:

Source: SocketSite
Here is the SSP thread.

And right next door (the dirt area in the foreground of timbad's photo) will be this:

Source: SocketSite
Here is the SSP thread.

And in the background of that last rendering you can see the under-construction ORH phase 2.

[biggerhigherfaster]

good stuff, peanut, but whether all those projects will get built is another matter

[peanut gallery]

That's true, nothing is guaranteed. But the first one, 340 Fremont, filed for construction permits in September and the second, 399 Fremont, supposedly has funding and could start very soon. I'm with you though, I won't get too hopeful until actual work starts on either one.

[NOPA]

I think these will get built sooner than we think considering how hot the SF market is right now.

I am also totally fine with not EVERY infill project being massive tower; the gaps/space break it up and give more views, sun, air, etc. Idealy, I'd prefer a lot of tall and medium slender towers with varing heights.

My biggest problem with our skyline is the sense that it "flatlines" around 500 ft towers. The Transbay tower should help solve this (though I would love to see an iconic 1300 footer in between the Transbay and Transamerica as the skyline peak, but one can only dream).

[tech12]

Designs for Mission Bay block 40 have been released:

http://www.socketsite.com/archives/2013/...n_mission_bay_feet_on_the_border_of.html

upon Block 40, a 995,000 square foot office complex composed of two "campuses" is proposed to rise. Each campus would feature a 5-story building connected to a 12-story, rising up to 180 feet. 680 parking spaces would be provided in two 5-story parking garages. The western facades of the buildings and open spaces facing Interstate 280 have been designed so that if Interstate 280 is razed, the area could be repurposed as public open space.

[biggerhigherfaster]

Not bad, but I hope that the other blocks of Mission Bay are used for high rise residential

[peanut gallery]

The only potential for additional highrise residential left in MB is within the Giants' Mission Rock development. Everything else is spoken for and if I'm not mistaken only Block 13W is what I would call a highrise. In fact, these two office buildings will be two of the tallest buildings in MB outside Mission Rock.

[Gordo]

Just curious - how many 5+ story parking garages will there be in Mission Bay upon buildout? I sort of understand the need for them here with the high water table and university/hospital use, but jeez, it seems like there will be about a dozen within a 20-30 square block area.

[NOPA]

Thought I would snap a few photos while at Safeway today. Not sure the names of these developments in Upper Market, but they are coming along nicely.

[IMG]http://www.flickr.com/photos/92429106@N02/8469812654/in/photostream

[/IMG]http://www.flickr.com/photos/92429106@N02/8469813004/in/photostream

[Jerry of San Fran]

NOPA - tanks for the link with updates on the apartment buildings across the street from the Safeway store. I was on the same corner today at 2:30 & saw a guy taking pictures of the construction. It might have been you!

[NOPA]

I was there a few hours later...and they are just crummy iPhone pics. Also, I'm trying to figure out how to get the photo to pop up in the thread (not just the link). Sorry I'm a newbie but trying to post more relevant comments, not just opinion.

[fimiak]

Originally Posted by NOPA

I was there a few hours later...and they are just crummy iPhone pics. Also, I'm trying to figure out how to get the photo to pop up in the thread (not just the link). Sorry I'm a newbie but trying to post more relevant comments, not just opinion.

Make an account on imgur, upload photo, and click the option for displaying a thumbnail. More pictures are always wanted and appreciated.

[timbad]

Originally Posted by NOPA

... Also, I'm trying to figure out how to get the photo to pop up in the thread (not just the link). ...

from your flickr account:

1. select the photo you want to display here
2. click the 'Share' button
3. choose 'Grab the HTML/BBCode'
4. select BBCode
5. choose size of photo (I use Large 1024)
6. copy the code that appears in the box
7. back here in your post, click on the 'insert image' icon
8. paste the code in the pop-up box, click OK. you can be done at this point, but I always also
9. delete most of the extra code, leaving just the part below (disabled example), which is all that is needed

[img]http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8367/8469812654_87c7fdd2fd_b.jpg[ /img]

[fimiak]

If anyone wants to start proper threads on projects like 55 Ninth st, 5th and Folsom, and other buildings underway but without threads, I will provide updated pictures as soon as I can.