The Canadian Electric Vehicle thread

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Pretty sure stopping construction above 6 floors would increase in a big way carbon output. Resulting sprawl would increase both transport and housing emissions.

Plenty of dense cities don't have high rises. Ever been to Paris?

And it's even easier in North America these days, with 5+1s. You live in Ottawa. Surely you've seen a bunch of 5+1s.

Beyond that, more towns, semis and multiplexes. In fact, I'd argue that towers are symbols of failure. The reason we build them is because we don't allow gentle density elsewhere at all.

[Nouvellecosse]

It's also possible to make small to midsize highrises out of timber now. There's a wood framed UBC student residence that's 18 stories which was the tallest such building in the world when completed but has since been surpassed. So building over 6 stories doesn't necessarily mean carbon intensive concrete.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

It's also possible to make small to midsize highrises out of timber now. There's a wood framed UBC student residence that's 18 stories which was the tallest such building in the world when completed but has since been surpassed. So building over 6 stories doesn't necessarily mean carbon intensive concrete.

Related: 25 storey mass timber tower recently constructed in Milwaukee
https://www.wpr.org/economy/tallest-...orld-milwaukee

Back on topic, if I were an auto manufacturer and don't have a full lineup of EV cars, I'd be worried about BYD



The lower priced Seagull will be sold in Mexico soon
https://electrek.co/2024/03/25/byd-u...lectric-sedan/

"BYD has six dealerships in Mexico and plans to have 50 (with a presence in all of Mexico’s 32 states) by the end of 2024. In February, BYD Americas CEO Stella Li told Reuters the company was looking for a plant in Mexico with a production capacity of 150,000 annually."
https://www.autoweek.com/news/a60164...byd-in-mexico/

Years ago I would've laughed off Chinese automakers. Not BYD in 2024
worthwhile 16 min video of the rise of BYD
• Video Link

[urbandreamer]

As a carshare service, the Silence S04 would be nice in urban areas. Swappable batteries but rather expensive if purchased outright:
https://www.silence.eco/en/silence-p...nocar/#model-2

[SpongeG]

I was watching a video of Canadians visiting China recently, and he is pointing out and bewildered by all the Chinese brand cars and EV's he sees all over, but they all look like a slight variation of a Tesla, they all look the same, kinda weird.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Wigs

Related: 25 storey mass timber tower recently constructed in Milwaukee
https://www.wpr.org/economy/tallest-...orld-milwaukee

Thanks for sharing this. Inspiring

I was already aware of this one (made the news as the tallest wood-framed building in Quebec).

https://condosorigine.com/

[casper]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

I was watching a video of Canadians visiting China recently, and he is pointing out and bewildered by all the Chinese brand cars and EV's he sees all over, but they all look like a slight variation of a Tesla, they all look the same, kinda weird.

China has far more potential outside of North America.

I know Russia is a special case. Here is a video from a year ago on how China is taking over in that market.

• Video Link

[Truenorth00]

People misunderstand the big problem with Chinese EVs. Even if they don't come to North America, they take away share from the legacy automakers taking away profits and reducing capital efficiency. It strangles their businesses over time. Even if ideologically possessed dumb dumbs don't think EVs are relevant, there's a reason legacy auto CEOs are calling Chinese EVs a strategic threat.

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

It's also possible to make small to midsize highrises out of timber now. There's a wood framed UBC student residence that's 18 stories which was the tallest such building in the world when completed but has since been surpassed. So building over 6 stories doesn't necessarily mean carbon intensive concrete.

You still need foundations.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by jonny24

You still need foundations.

Buildings of 6 or fewer stories need foundations too. My apartment building of 3 stories has concrete foundations for instance. If reducing the amount of emissions per occupant then it's not an issue.

[whatnext]

Can we keep the construction posts to an appropriate thread please.

[Wigs]

According to the CNBC video I posted,

BYD has:
- become a leader in lithium iron phosphate LFP batteries that are cheaper to manufacture, more efficient and stronger, durable/longer lasting
- "designs, develops, engineers its own batteries at scale" incl providing batteries for Tesla, Toyota, Kia
- become number one EV brand in Thailand, Brazil, Colombia, Israel
- 43% market share of EV market in Southeast Asia
- 14% market share of EV in Australia when they haven't even been there for more than a couple of years (Tesla currently has ~53%)
- begun to sell cars in Mexico, Europe
- built its own (LNG powered) cargo ship that can transport up to 7,000 vehicles at once
- has plans to build manufacturing plants in Hungary, Thailand, Brazil, with serious talks of building a plant in Mexico.

Once a Mexico plant is built I'm sure border states (California, Arizona, Texas) will be importing thousands at a time, then to North America overall.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Wigs

Once a Mexico plant is built I'm sure border states (California, Arizona, Texas) will be importing thousands at a time, then to North America overall.

Tariffs are quite high on the portion of the vehicle and parts sourced outside North America. Right now it's 27%. Trump is proposing to make that 100%. So for now, the US might be protected.

Guess we should be grateful that Ford et al are pursuing smaller and cheaper EVs, thanks to the competitive threat of BYD.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Wigs

According to the CNBC video I posted,

Once a Mexico plant is built I'm sure border states (California, Arizona, Texas) will be importing thousands at a time, then to North America overall.

Besides the tariffs there is the threat of Mexico being locked out further so an investment there is risky.

The idea they would be limited to border states misunderstands transport networks in the automotive sector. If they get a model approved for sale in the US they will be across the country. Though the dealer makes entry harder. The $10k models somehow end up closer to $30k when they make it to Australia so safety costs I guess (along with regulatory costs)

[Wigs]

I have no doubts they are cheaper in China due to subsidies within China.

I meant if a BYD factory is built in Mexico they can avoid heavy tariffs (instead of shipping directly from China) under USMCA agreement, and the first States to purchase BYD vehicles will be border states before we see them in NY, Ontario or elsewhere.

It's only a matter of time before the popular auto brands in North America face stiff competition, from the likes of Chinese automakers like BYD.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Tariffs are quite high on the portion of the vehicle and parts sourced outside North America. Right now it's 27%. Trump is proposing to make that 100%. So for now, the US might be protected.

Guess we should be grateful that Ford et al are pursuing smaller and cheaper EVs, thanks to the competitive threat of BYD.

Not if BYD build the Mexico factory

Cars made at a Chinese-owned factory in Mexico, by contrast, could enjoy the low 2.5% tariff upon entering the U.S. The factory’s cars could possibly pay no tariff if they met stringent standards for local content under the U.S.-Canada-Mexico Agreement adopted in 2020.

WSJ
https://archive.ph/NaFNu

That number is with Chinese components and assembly within Mexico.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Wigs

Not if BYD build the Mexico factory

WSJ
https://archive.ph/NaFNu

That number is with Chinese components and assembly within Mexico.

The key phrase here is:

...if they met stringent standards for local content under the U.S.-Canada-Mexico Agreement adopted in 2020.

And that's before accounting for Trump doing crazy shit.

And the real problem for Chinese EVs into the US is qualification for the $7500 rebate which has thresholds for everything from raw materials to assembled components that keep getting higher. Watch from 5 mins in:

• Video Link

[Wigs]

Tariffs or not, BYD will follow the path that Japanese automakers Honda and Toyota did in the 1970s/1980s, and South Korean automakers Hyundai/Kia in the 1990s/2000s.

As for America's $7,500 EV tax credit,
China can afford to subsidize each car if they wanted, so even though the consumer won't get a tax credit the sticker price could be substantially lower than a competitor.

How to get market share quickly? Undercut the competition for years then slowly raise pricing over time like Hyundai/Kia did. And until say the past 10-15 years, Hyundai and Kia were still kinda mediocre if not crappy cars.

BYD has already hired German designers, following Kia's path to success, so their current lineup is attractive.

The reviews for the Tesla Model 3 competitor, BYD Seal are pretty good so far. It only has to beat Tesla on price to start stealing substantial market share. And the lower end models will be affordable to the masses, something no other EV maker currently does, which is why electric cars get lambasted by urbandreamer and other forumers for the oppressive high entry cost to consumers.

Truenorth, you make it seem like a difficult uphill battle for BYD. China can afford to take a loss on the first however many hundreds of thousands of vehicles delivered to North American markets just to build up brand recognition and market share.

They build their own batteries so save a fortune with vertical integration, meanwhile even Tesla, Toyota, Kia are buying BYD batteries for their vehicles as they are at the forefront of Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery technology.

I say North America should encourage them to build factories here before the tidal wave of imports arrive whether made in China or the ones to be made at a future Mexico, or Europe factory.

The tidal wave is coming. It's only a matter of when.

[Truenorth00]

We'll see what develops. I don't doubt that the Chinese want to break into the American market. But I think they can afford to wait out Trump and use the years improving their Mexican operations and refining their product.

The Chinese government has also launched a lawsuit against the US, at the WTO, over the IRA exclusion for EVs.

https://electrek.co/2024/03/26/china...-policies-evs/

Either way, I don't think the Chinese competition is coming as soon as people think. Maybe 2028. But that's also not a lot of time for legacy auto.

[Wigs]

Truenorth,
Since you enjoy DW videos, just 3 weeks ago BYD's purpose built vehicle cargo ship just unloaded 5,000 cars into Germany. The ship can allegedly carry up to 7,000 cars.

BYD plans to build 8 of these ships for their vehicles and to ship other Chinese automakers

• Video Link