City Murder Rates

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Crawford

YTD murders are trending far below 2019, or any recent year.

But people don't like objective reality anymore. Let's go by feelz.

This is a great explanation IMO:

Originally Posted by mrnyc

i wonder if a good part of this crime drop has to do with the drug abusers drugs of choice? these days its all depressants and you see people nodding out and acting like zombies in the worst areas. also, weed is basically legal now, even where it isnt yet. compare that to back in the crackhead era when they were crazy hyper, jumpy and twitchy. obviously there are opposite levels of violence between these drug trends. its more like brave new world with soma nowadays.

[Crawford]

A huge proportion of U.S. murder rate consists of loosely organized crews, usually young black males, spontaneously killing each other for perceived slights. Often something as simple as a social media diss. I don't think it's directly related to drugs of choice.

[Steely Dan]

^ yeah, as I mentioned earlier, drug purveyors (and their related street gang associates) seem to be responsible for the vast bulk of homicides in Chicago, not the end-user drug addicts.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Crawford

A huge proportion of U.S. murder rate consists of loosely organized crews, usually young black males, spontaneously killing each other for perceived slights. Often something as simple as a social media diss. I don't think it's directly related to drugs of choice.

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

^ yeah, as I mentioned earlier, drug purveyors (and their related street gang associates) seem to be responsible for the vast bulk of homicides in Chicago, not the end-user drug addicts.

It would be interesting to have the "murders" data separated in two distinct categories: the murder rate for innocent people, and the murder figures for people who played a role in their own demise.

Most normal people only care about the former. Chicago's on-paper murder rate is only relevant to me as my real odds of getting shot to death while walking down State Street taking pics of early skyscrapers.

[Tom In Chicago]

Originally Posted by lio45

Chicago's on-paper murder rate is only relevant to me as my real odds of getting shot to death while walking down State Street taking pics of early skyscrapers.

That's so unlikely to happen that if it did, you would be a statistical anomaly. . . now you might get robbed if you were pegged as a mark - rubbernecking at tall buildings with out any situational awareness - but most people tend to mind their own business even when it comes to tourists. . .

That probably applies to every perceived-to-be dangerous city in America. . .

. . .

[Skoobeatz]

Youngstown Ohio USA (12)

Population: 59,108

[Gantz]

Originally Posted by lio45

It would be interesting to have the "murders" data separated in two distinct categories: the murder rate for innocent people, and the murder figures for people who played a role in their own demise.

Most normal people only care about the former. Chicago's on-paper murder rate is only relevant to me as my real odds of getting shot to death while walking down State Street taking pics of early skyscrapers.

The murder rate is often a good proxy for other crimes. While the chance of you getting randomly murdered is very very low, you getting robbed or otherwise assaulted goes up significantly once you enter a high murder rate area.
Murder rate is a good approx. indicator because statistics get funky for other lesser crimes, as you are comparing different criteria for different departments and states and different attitudes when it comes to reporting.

[jtown,man]

Memphis is at 125.

https://wreg.com/news/local/memphis-...ides-2024-map/

[Skoobeatz]

Youngstown Ohio USA (13)

Population: 59,108

Previous year(s) total

2023 (22)
2022 (31)
2021 (28)

All time record

1995 (68)

[lextown]

Louisville KY is at 85.

Lexington KY is at 7.

[3rd&Brown]

Surprised not to see a stream of updates here since we just passed the halfway mark on the year and can easily extrapolate or predict trend through year end.

As of the end of June, Philly is at 130 homicides.

2024: 130
2023: 212
2022: 259
2021: 273
2020: 202
2019: 164
2018: 151
2017: 163
2016: 127
2015: 115
2014: 115

As you can see, at half the rate of the peak (2021 & 2022) and pacing at 2016's rate.

If year to date trend were extrapolated to year end we'd land at 260 murders which would be the lowest number since 2014 when Philly ended the year at 248 homicides. Philly had 562 homicides in 2021.

[Steely Dan]

^ solid work, Philly!

Keep it up.



Chicago is down, but nowhere near that much.

Chicago at the half-year mark:

2024: 269
2023: 290
2022: 312
2021: 344
2020: 337
2019: 253

Source: Sun-Times homicide tracker.


Inching closer to 2019, but still not quite there yet.

[homebucket]

^ Thanks for leading us off! I'll go ahead and bat second.

San Francisco
2023 YTD: 25
2024 YTD: 17
Change: -32%

I'm not sure if this includes last night's murder or not, but around 11 pm yesterday a homeless dude pushed a 74 year old woman off the BART platform at Powell Station, as a train was approaching. Unfortunately, she did not survive her injuries.

But here's how it compares to other years, as of June 30:
2024: 17
2023: 25
2022: 24
2021: 26
2020: 22
2019: 19
2018: 22
2017: 34

SF's crime dashboard doesn't go further back than that.

And FWIW, overall crime is down as well, by 32%. Rape is down 10.3%, robbery down 17.6%, assault down 5.1%, burglary down 18.1%, motor vehicle theft down 18.3%, arson down 17.4%, and larceny theft down 40.1% (this is the one SF gets the most flack for).

[pip]

As of July 2 2024 Boston is at 4 murders

[homebucket]

Dayum, Boston coming through with a grand slam after 3rd&Brown led off with a double, Steely Dan worked a walk, and I hit a single.

Who's next?

[ilcapo]

Stockholm metro (2.4 mil) i believe is at 16 or 17 and the city (990k) at 6 or 7.

Definitely down by quite alot. 40% probably.

[Acajack]

Toronto 47
Montréal 18
Ottawa 14

[ilcapo]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Toronto 47
Montréal 18
Ottawa 14

Whats going on in Canada? Sounds very high to me.

Gang on gang or domestic murders? The latter is on the rise in many countries and cities. Dublin for example had a huge rise last year.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by ilcapo

Whats going on in Canada? Sounds very high to me.

Gang on gang or domestic murders? The latter is on the rise in many countries and cities. Dublin for example had a huge rise last year.

It's high for Ottawa (1 m people) due to a multiple murder of 6 people in one incident.

It's about average for recent years in Toronto (3 m people) and low-ish for Montréal (2 m people).

All populations and murder numbers are for zones patrolled by central city police. Not full metro areas.

[fern]

Liverpool Metro (1.4M)
Office for National Statistics figures show Merseyside Police recorded 24 homicides in the year to March – up from 18 the year before.